PhoenixDark
Banned
no
Obama didn't show up, period. Even if democrats pretended like he won, polls would show otherwise and the media would focus on that.
Aaron is right. Everyone else stepped up to the plate except Obama. That's a problem
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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.
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Obama didn't show up, period. Even if democrats pretended like he won, polls would show otherwise and the media would focus on that.
Aaron is right. Everyone else stepped up to the plate except Obama. That's a problem
How far do you think he's going to drop? These numbers won't free-fall. It's just not possible. Romney pulled the debate of his life. He got his base fired up AND he got a lot of indies to flip towards him. How much further do you think he can go? The ones who didn't flip are happy with Obama or are part of Obama's base.
You can GIVE Romney every state that Obama has less than a 66% chance of winning and Romney still loses.
For no reason, of course not. If you told me I had a 99% chance of calling heads on a coin toss, I still wouldn't bet my job on it. What's my incentive to bet my job on a percent when I can just keep it?
If you said there's a 66% chance I'd get a better job with less hours and more pay vs a 33% chance I'd get a worse job with more hours and less pay, I'd do it ten times out of ten. I gamble a lot at the casinos and spend a lot of time learning best ways to maximize expected value (poker, counting cards in blackjack, playing maximum payout video poker). This is Romney's peak. I'm not scared of a candidate who peaks at 33%.
DragonSworne
Banned
Maybe he should just state his opinion and walk out the next debate.
There is no point in him standing up on national television "debating" someone when he has more important things to worry about.
I think people who respect that. Call out the sham that is presidential debates and put and end to them forever.
http://election.princeton.edu/2012/10/10/time-to-panic-rejoice-neither/#more-7259
Interesting take on latest polling
Interesting take on latest polling
Black Mamba
Member
No way. The delay proves it. After a day of getting trounced people believed it. Sure there be a small initial bounce but without the narrative the people leanin Obama would firmly stay here
Everybody?
Unfortunately there was another big dip after the uptick. PEC is showing for basically the first time that a Romney victory is within the MoE.
You know what is creeping into my mind as a possibility? 269-269. Obviously incredibly unlikely, but I could see a scenario where Romney gets a late surge and wins most swing states but Obama holds on in Ohio because of early voting.
Particle Physicist
between a quark and a baryon
Nobody thought Biden was going to blow Ryan out of the water, everyone was hoping he wouldn't make any major gaffes, and that's pretty much it.
No one.
Yes, this is absolutely correct.
I'm going to post the video they linked to
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0x-fkSYDtUY&feature=player_embedded
Hobbestetrician
Member
It's one thing to lose, it's another thing to lose and look completely unprepared, and not quite looking like a sitting President. So he turned away some undecideds, disappointed the base and fired up the GOP. If it was more of a simple loss -- i.e. still being prepared but under-performing his challenger -- I think we wouldn't even be talking about this right now.
I mean, really, Obama had so much going into this: tons of Democrats including Bill Clinton giving him a huge bounce from the DNC, an entire month of Mitt Romney's campaign completely wasted and tarnishing his credibility with voters, and even if minimal, some real signs that the employment situation in this country is improving. Had Obama just showed up, even if he still ended up "losing", it would've been okay.
I'm still flabbergasted as to why he didn't bring up the 47% remarks. Talk about a freebie. That gaffe speaks for itself, you can't undo it.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Biden was being set up to fail. I was expecting a tie at best.
The Clinton stuff was all unfounded but there was a pretty strong right-wing meme that he was going to wink-wink-nudge-nudge his way through the speech to shit on Obama and build himself up.
Something good: The IDP/TIPP tracker now shows Obama with a lead, albeit by only .7. Romney was up 5 in this poll earlier.
Dreamcaster
Banned
Man, those 538 numbers keep dropping. Romney has gone from a 12% chance pre-debate to now a 34% chance and has picked up 31 projected electoral votes (a 62 vote swing, since they come away from Obama). Obama also down to 50% vs. 48.9% in the popular vote prediction.
Obama als now only a lock in 10 states: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html
I haven't been following RCP that much, so not sure how big of a drop that is.
Panic?
Obama als now only a lock in 10 states: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html
I haven't been following RCP that much, so not sure how big of a drop that is.
Panic?
PD's point is that Obama allowed the media to have the narrative of a Romnmey comeback that they so badly wanted
Oh goody, the SC deciding 2 elections within 12 years of each other.
IDP/TIPP? The poll where everyone was like "WTF is this crap"? With a sample of 500 voters?
Meh.
So, it went O-1, O-5, O-1, O+1?
Did they only interview one person on that O-5 day and it was Jack Welch, maybe?
Are you guys kidding me? The only thing Ryan has is a higher "likeability" factor. Biden has experience, facts, and knowledge. He's also a sharp politician who has an "edge" about him. I was definitely hoping Biden wouldn't screw up especially with what happened to Obama, but I thought everyone knew Biden would mop the floor with Ryan. What the hell does Ryan bring to the table besides "likeability"? It sure ain't economics, foreign policy, or social issues.
It's misleading to suggest Romney's bounce is solely based on the fact he "won" or the media narrative. Rather it's likely that one reason is that Obama had a lot of soft support; voters who weren't happy with economy or perhaps some of Obama's policies, but found Romney just too unlikeable, particularly after 47% comments. The debate was a venue for him to make himself a tolerable alternative in the eyes of these people.
E: Tipp has always been trash and known for its extreme volatility
E: Tipp has always been trash and known for its extreme volatility
NullPointer
Member
Very true. Every story needs a twist. And for elections, the more twists the better.
Aaron Strife
Banned
In the event of a tie, the House decides the president and the Senate decides the Vice President.
Romney-Biden everybody!
not panicking yet. there's still two more debates and their style and substance favor obama. if things continue going south, then absolutely. if things stay the same, then no. it'll be close, but no.
just slightly nervous is all
That would be so amazing.
Officerrob
Banned
Romney is only a lock for 13 states which total 76 EV's, which is basically equal to California and Illinois (75 EV's)
Hopefully they'll grace us with a tweet troll hinting at the result.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Their greetings at the SOTU addresses would be great.
Romney: "You're probably not used to sitting next to a white guy."
Biden: "Get bent, asshole."
I mean, I can't imagine they'd do much else together.
jamesinclair
Banned
Could they pick someone else?
DragonSworne
Banned
The Final Word on Mitt Romney's Tax Plan
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-12/the-final-word-on-mitt-romney-s-tax-plan.html
We all know the short explanation of why the plan doesn't work, but this post breaks it down further and cites the six studies Mitt/Ryan reference.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-12/the-final-word-on-mitt-romney-s-tax-plan.html
We all know the short explanation of why the plan doesn't work, but this post breaks it down further and cites the six studies Mitt/Ryan reference.
I would die from laughter, can you imagine Biden calling Romney out when he says something. You see Ryan wants to do it now when they interview together, Biden would probably do it ha ha
Black Republican
Member
Colorado: Romney 48% Obama 47% Denver Post
http://www.denverpost.com/breakingnews/ci_21759147/poll-romney-gains-obama-colorado-but-race-remains
http://www.denverpost.com/breakingnews/ci_21759147/poll-romney-gains-obama-colorado-but-race-remains
I've never understood this.
The senate deciding the president makes far more sense if you're going to split it like that.
Such a sharp decline. Please don't turn into a plummet.The now-cast in particular makes me feel nauseous.
I think so?
'Friday Night Lights' Creator Accuses Mitt Romney Of Plagiarizing The Show's Signature Catchphrase
http://www.businessinsider.com/friday-night-lights-creator-accusing-mitt-romney-of-plagiarism-2012-10
Cold-blooooooded.......
http://www.businessinsider.com/friday-night-lights-creator-accusing-mitt-romney-of-plagiarism-2012-10
Cold-blooooooded.......
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
Not on GAF. Everyone knew it was a forgone conclusion that he was going to spank Ryan.
Aaron Strife
Banned
It makes sense to me. VP is the president of the senate. The House is directly representative of the American people, or is supposed to be (lol gerrymandering).
Particle Physicist
between a quark and a baryon
That is some revisionism. Look back through this thread, try and find some pre-debate articles. Even the day of the election CNN devoted lots of time into how awesome Ryan is, how young, and energies, how he has been carrying a heavy briefcase with him full if debate material, how he had been practicing since he was chosen, he he is a policy wonk and incredible with numbers. Meanwhile, the little they talked about Biden was usually to mention how he lost to Palin in '08
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
Originally, the President and Vice-President didn't run on a same ticket like it is now. It makes perfect sense if you think of it that way.
jamesinclair
Banned
The now-cast in particular makes me feel nauseous.
Holy shit that's huge.
Panic mode engaged.
Particle Physicist
between a quark and a baryon
I'm pretty nervous about OH, Obama needs it to shut out Romney.
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