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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.
- Thread starter Amir0x
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cartoon_soldier
Member
The now-cast in particular makes me feel nauseous.
It's going to get worse with the polls out today
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
It is just beginning. Still almost 4 weeks left of it, by my count.
Dreamcaster
Banned
If/When those lines cross - HOLD ON TIGHT.
PhoenixDark
Banned
That is simply not true. The immediate debate snap polls that came out that night showed Obama lost decisively. 68 million people watched, more than both conventions combined. The response was unanimous even without a media freakout. People saw Obama get owned while Romney looked like the actual president.
jamesinclair
Banned
Obama needs to admit that its over, steep aside and let Biden run
How do we know tomorrow's polls are going to be any better? :lol
Hobbestetrician
Member
I was wondering this too. Do they have to select the Dem VP nominee? Could they actually select Obama (oh man, the shit that would go down with that)?
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
If Romney wins this, PD is forever to be crowned King of PoliGAF. None of his other blatantly wrong predictions will other matter again, for he will have called the race that absolutely nobody else in their right mind would have predicted...
The now-cast in particular makes me feel nauseous.
That is popular vote, not electoral college.
Dreamcaster
Banned
Morning Joe was commenting how last night was the first time they had seen well known Dems on Twitter saying Biden 2016.
Yeah, I would still bet on Obama winning if the election were held today, but even when we look at history, I think we get fooled how sometimes seemingly close races end up being a "wave" election where one candidate just pulls away and states start falling all over the map (I guess I'm thinking more Reagan/Carter than anything). The jobs numbers that have come out have certainly ticked in the right direction for Obama, but Romney still has the momentum.
Hell it was the first time I ever said that.
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
Tomorrow's polls aren't going to be a hell of a lot different, though I'd be happy to be wrong. I'm glad Biden did well but I just don't think the VP debate is going to move things much.
I think a lot of Obama's commanding lead pre-debate was probably ephemeral, and there were very few scenarios where the lead was going to grow or even remain the same after the first debate, including an Obama "win". So I do wonder how much of this contraction was inevitable after Romney looking at least competent in a debate (which was very likely) and how much was self-inflicted damage from a listless Obama performance.
I think a lot of Obama's commanding lead pre-debate was probably ephemeral, and there were very few scenarios where the lead was going to grow or even remain the same after the first debate, including an Obama "win". So I do wonder how much of this contraction was inevitable after Romney looking at least competent in a debate (which was very likely) and how much was self-inflicted damage from a listless Obama performance.
jamesinclair
Banned
Obama is done, I was thinking Hillary
Let me rephrase. Everybody on here. Of course I don't think Fox News or CNN are going to declare someone a winner before the debate. It doesn't make sense for them to do so.
Black Mamba
Member
Their numbers are still nuts. Over 40% weighted as conservatives. With more realistic weights their model would be showing a big Obama lead.
Still a trash poll on all accounts. Obama with a huge lead also not realistic
If these numbers are to believed, it just goes to show how soft Obama's support was prior to the 1st debate. If one bad debate performance is enough to flip an election from being a semi-comfortable lead into a tie or being slightly down then people clearly didn't have much conviction in preferring Obama up until that point.
I think it shows that an unfortunate percentage of the voting population is open to or actively looking for a reason not to vote for Obama. All Romney had to do was show up and look fit for the job and display more passion. He did that at the debates and that was enough to swing things around.
I think it shows that an unfortunate percentage of the voting population is open to or actively looking for a reason not to vote for Obama. All Romney had to do was show up and look fit for the job and display more passion. He did that at the debates and that was enough to swing things around.
Yes very trash poll lol.
Captain Pants
Killed by a goddamned Dredgeling
I'm just amazed at how fragile Obama's lead was. I've been so confident for months and then it all just went away in no time. I still think things will turn around, and that the longer people are exposed to Romney, the more they dislike him, but goddamn. I didn't expect it to be close at this point.
Uhh... you don't want the popular vote to be that close. Ever.
Writing off Bams already? It's that bad?
I don't know what the hell to think.
Perhaps Dems getting so riled up over a VP debate highlights how disappointed we really are deep down, I dunno.
TacticalFox88
Banned
Ugh. Obama needs to win already. I'm tired of hearing all this bullshit.
Entertaining the thought of a 269-269 tie (not that I ever think it'd happen)- Let's say Romney wins and Democrats select Hillary to be VP (doesn't really matter who they pick here). What happens during 2016 elections? Do they go back to running on separate tickets? Dems have to pick a new Presidential candidate and Reps have to pick a new VP candidate? Seems like a big clusterfuck.
Particle Physicist
between a quark and a baryon
Nobody on here. And if there was someone, they were likely mocked.
Agree its the same crap over and over.
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
Yeah, like I said earlier the polls are just bizarre to me now, even if it bounces back in Obama's favor. I expected about half the tightening of the race post-debate than we actually got. It seems like a LOT of unenthused Republican voters were dying to see a "debate smackdown" from Romney.
I think it's because this is the last thing anyone expected at this point. No one ever imagined the first debate would go down like it did, nor was anyone prepared for the aftermath.
This is truly like a bad dream, this is the worst October ever.
Are you kidding me? Talk about revisionism.
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
You are incorrect about this. Nearly everyone, myself included, was saying that Biden was going to come out swinging and win the debate. You might have gone to a Bizarro Gaf or were talking to Kosmo.
Shadow Hog
Member
Sounds like the makings of a great sitcom.
PhoenixDark
Banned
As I've said before, Obama's big pre-debate margins were due to a couple things, alongside the obvious stuff (47%, conventions, slowly improving economy, etc)
1) His opponent was seen as unacceptable to most Americans
2) Republican leaning independents were sidelined due to Romney being a bad candidate
The debate changed both. Now Romney's favorables are in the high 40s - he's still seen overall unfavorable, but he has seen quite an increase. Also his performance moved ashamed conservatives out of the independent column and into the republican column - something that hadn't happened for quite some time. We're seeing party ID tighten not because independents magically said "I'm a republican now!" - it's because a few are coming home to the GOP, and other true independents were swayed by Romney's performance.
The fact that Romney could call half the country moochers and lead in the polls a month later tells me that Obama's lead simply was not substantial - it was brittle, as Nate Silver said. Voters wanted an actual choice election, but instead were reserved to voting for Obama because the other guy was so bad. Well now Obama looks shaky and the other guy has completely rebounded. Romney can close the deal by continuing to harp on Obama's promises. He's still promising stuff he promised four years ago.(tax breaks for jobs that keep jobs here, immigration reform, green jobs, etc). In 1996, Clinton opened his debates by saying "I said I was going to get x accomplished, and we did it even better. I said we'd get y accomplished, and we got y accomplished even better. etc." That's how incumbents win, by reminding voters they got the job done. Obama has certainly gotten us out of an economic ditch, but voters don't seem impressed, and he struggles to sell that as an accomplishment.
eBay Huckster
Member
Diablos and PD are the main ones posting and Black Mamba seems to have disappeared in the past page or so, so of course it is.
It was a combo of unenthusiastic Republicans getting fired up, which was going to happen no matter what during the first debate, and Democratic voters losing their lunch a little from Obama's poor performance. The former might remain, but the latter will taper off and we'll get back to a 2-3 point lead for Obama nationally before election day. Everyone needs to calm down.
Particle Physicist
between a quark and a baryon
I'd like to see these posts, because from what I remember people were saying the opposite, which is why I made the post with an old clip of Biden debating and told people not to sleep on him.
Particle Physicist
between a quark and a baryon
Can you point to a page in this thread where people were saying this? Maybe I missed it, but I distinctly remember seeing people say that if he comes out swinging he will look like an old man scolding a child, and that people hoped he wouldn't make many gaffes.
eBay Huckster
Member
Think mainline-OT was saying Biden was a lightweight more than this thread
I'm noticing more of a back-and-forth of optimism and pessimism, not "chicken little-ing". Admit it, this is getting tighter than anyone anticipated and we don't know exactly where it's going to land right now.
The question now is if Obama can at least negate his first debate performance (or lack thereof). There's going to be a lot riding on it.
Romney has probably practiced for Tuesday like 500 times in his sleep by now, heh.
Particle Physicist
between a quark and a baryon
Well. That makes more sense. I only jumped to the VP thread after the debate started. I tend to stay here in the basement. lol
I'd still like to see what people were saying though. I'm curious.
He had been polling above expectations since the convention. Remember, his numbers were receding even prior to the debate. So there's seems to be a natural correction occurring. However, the simultaneity of the debate with the correction has agitated everyone. So I've chosen to ignore the fluctuations because fixating on noise is fruitless. Obama's modest economic advantage and superior organization will prove insurmountable.
Might have to remind me in a bit. I have a five page paper due in a few hours. Not a huge deal; just medical ethics- but gonna soak up some time.
The Lamonster
Member
Is this upcoming debate one of the most important debates in the history of America? Or was the first one even more important?
PhoenixDark
Banned
My final map: http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=Hte
Romney: 275
Obama: 263
Ohio will be too close to call and eventually fall to Romney, by hook or crook
Romney: 275
Obama: 263
Ohio will be too close to call and eventually fall to Romney, by hook or crook
eBay Huckster
Member
And I'll make it into Harvard Law
Seems more like a back-and-forth of tempered "wait and see" and "OH MY GOD OBAMA'S GOING TO LOSE EVERY SWING STATE BY 5 POINTS" to me
If he takes OH I think he'll get NH too, but yeah, that's close to what a losing map looks like, fo 'sho.
Black Republican
Member
lose ohio? not happening
PhoenixDark
Banned
Maybe you will, you seem like a smart guy and I wouldn't bet against you. And when you graduation you just might find a job with Romney in office
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