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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.

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HylianTom

Banned
JakeColorYawnAvatar2.png


Yup. Just checked. Veins are still nice'n'icy.

Can we tone-down the panicking a bit now?
 

teh_pwn

"Saturated fat causes heart disease as much as Brawndo is what plants crave."
Holy shit. How did we go from Ohio being a toss up to Ohio has already locked into Obama? How is the data so different between polls?
 

RDreamer

Member
Jesus, 19% of Ohioans voted already!? o_O There's nearly still a month left! Are we going to get Ohio called before voting even begins on election day? lol

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls
Ohio voters think Biden won the debate Thursday night 46-37, including 44-32 with independents

Woo, go Biden
 

HylianTom

Banned
To put this another way, for Romney to win Ohio, he has to win the remaining 80% of voters by 12 points or so.

Not only that, but turnout was around 66% in Ohio in 2008. If turnout is similar this time, and 20% of the state has voted already by that crazy three-to-one margin, then the other 40-50% of the state that still has yet to vote needs to be won by Romney by an even larger margin.

Oh yeah.
 
Wait, PPP is saying it's +5 on guys who DIDN'T vote yet?

WTF. Isn't that way too high.

That's a fucking devastating picture of Ohio.



Anyway, great poll for Obama. Should push him up in Silver's forecast! Now we need to see Wisconsin and Iowa hold, too.


edit: I read that wrong. Romney is up,not Obama, on those who haven't voted. :(
 

teh_pwn

"Saturated fat causes heart disease as much as Brawndo is what plants crave."
Jesus, 19% of Ohioans voted already!? o_O There's nearly still a month left! Are we going to get Ohio called before voting even begins on election day? lol

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls
Ohio voters think Biden won the debate Thursday night 46-37, including 44-32 with independents

Woo, go Biden

Maybe the voter suppression attempt and previous ones encouraged everyone to vote early. I'm guessing we'll get stories about this next week.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
YES YES YES at the Ohio poll.

I'm starting to take this election too seriously. Honestly, the idea of a Romney presidency scares me to death.
 
PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls
D+4 sample on our poll showing Obama up 5 in Ohio. 2008 exit poll was D+8

Don't like these trends.

Anyway, early voting bloc has been huge for Obama. If Obama can close the Ohio gap on guys who didn't vote in the debate, that ends Ohio.

Also, if the early vote trend continues, might demoralize GOP in ohio to stay home.
 

RDreamer

Member
Wait, PPP is saying it's +5 on guys who DIDN'T vote yet?

No, Romney is up 51-45 with those who haven't voted yet

Maybe the voter suppression attempt and previous ones encouraged everyone to vote early. I'm guessing we'll get stories about this next week.

I wonder if the voter suppression would make minorities more likely to vote after all. I mean if someone's trying to take away my vote, I'm going to be goddamned determined to vote along with everyone else I know just to stick it to 'em. Now that the suppression laws seem to be smacked down, I do wonder if a lot of people will go out and vote agains the republicans as a big fuck you.
 
YES YES YES at the Ohio poll.

I'm starting to take this election too seriously. Honestly, the idea of a Romney presidency scares me to death.

I genuinely believe that a Romney Presidency will fuck the world over, not just the US.

The Middle East would be raped beyond recognition.
 

Measley

Junior Member
Ohio:
PPP 51-45
CNN 51-47
NBC/WSJ/Marist poll 51-45

Ohio has been very consistent the last week.

Ohio has been consistent this entire election cycle.

People talk about the new blue Southwest. They're forgetting about the "blue wall" (OH, IA, IL, MI, MN, WI) that has formed in the Midwest as well.
 

teh_pwn

"Saturated fat causes heart disease as much as Brawndo is what plants crave."
YES YES YES at the Ohio poll.

I'm starting to take this election too seriously. Honestly, the idea of a Romney presidency scares me to death.

Seriously. I'm acting like a freakin hardcore Democrat because Romney scares me that much. His policies would ruin this country in a time when the global economy is fragile with European austerity.
 

Diablos

Member
Don't like these trends.

Anyway, early voting bloc has been huge for Obama. If Obama can close the Ohio gap on guys who didn't vote in the debate, that ends Ohio.

Also, if the early vote trend continues, might demoralize GOP in ohio to stay home.
You were expecting 08 levels? I wasn't
 
According to PPP, Obama already has 15% of the vote. To be conservative, Romney would have to go at least 60-40 on those who didn't vote to draw even.

That's daunting. And that's assuming more GOP voters come into the cycle than predicted, otherwise closer to 62-38.
 
Well I certainly hope the results tomorrow are as good. A small lead in Florida and a tie in North Carolina would suffice.

I would not at all mind being wrong on North Carolina.
 

HylianTom

Banned
ElectoralStatus.jpg


Stay off of the ledge, folks. This is still looking quite doable. :)

And as an added bonus, we have seen the Republicans filled with hope.. and we get to see that hope crushed! Yum!
 

Jackson50

Member
51-46 bams
That's disappointing.
Probably, I mean he has what almost 800 field offices vs Romney who has almost 300. Most of Obama's ads are on the web since his demo is younger as well, that has to save some money.

I would imagine a lot of it is going to the ground game, I mean its ridiculous how effective they are at least in this state.
As I recall, Obama has approximately 45 more field offices in Iowa than Romney. The state is blanketed.
 

giga

Member
Well I certainly hope the results tomorrow are as good. A small lead in Florida and a tie in North Carolina would suffice.

I would not at all mind being wrong on North Carolina.
NC is gone. I expect Romney to be up in Florida because of the stupid 700 billion removed from Medicare lie.
 

Particle Physicist

between a quark and a baryon
No, Romney is up 51-45 with those who haven't voted yet


That is actually very encouraging when you think about it. Romney has a 6 point lead amung people who haven't voted during his peak, I seriously doubt that the lead will grow, and it apparently is not enough to overcome the huge lead Obama has on people who already voted.
 
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