Aaron Strife
Banned
No credible pollster has ever had NC as gone. Although I did give it to Romney in my final prediction.
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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.
- Thread starter Amir0x
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Ahh! Sorry! I would love that happening.
(and I'm cheering for your team right now. Any team with a cute wolfy dog gets my vote!)
I know you're joking but god, winning tea party central would bring so many delicious salty tears. Yum.
Stay off of the ledge, folks. This is still looking quite doable.
And as an added bonus, we have seen the Republicans filled with hope.. and we get to see that hope crushed! Yum!
You can go ahead and give Iowa to Obama.
PhoenixDark
Banned
Silver on twitter just now
OFA significantly over performing on the field and not being represented in LV polls?
OFA significantly over performing on the field and not being represented in LV polls?
Aaron Strife
Banned
Nevada and New Hampshire while we're at it.
Wouldn't surprise me. Wasn't someone saying how they were handing out absentee ballot forms to everyone at a Wisconsin rally? They want to make sure EVERYONE votes.PhoenixDark said:
Black Republican
Member
so much is wrong with Nevada yet most polling has Obama winning it, infact i dont think ive seen Romney lead all year there. Poor Romney.
I know
It was my aim to be ultra-conservative as a way of showing that he's still got this.
And I remain convinced: should he win, we're going to see an unprecedented effort by the GOP to get rid of early voting.
titiklabingapat
Member
I used to have a low opinion of Ohio, but between this amazing guy I'm sort of dating being from Cincinnati and being Obama's Blue Firewall this election cycle, I take back almost everything bad I said about Ohio.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Makes this video amusing in retrospect.
Giant Panda
Member
To live in my state it is required that I hate Ohio but god do I love them right now.
Well that's easy to say when you're comparing it against the deep south. But Ohio in comparison to New England or the West Coast? Eh.
I think this is a good place to bring this up, since we look at the US map like it's the first time we've been exposed to pornography:
Stay off of the ledge, folks. This is still looking quite doable.
And as an added bonus, we have seen the Republicans filled with hope.. and we get to see that hope crushed! Yum!
-North Dakota and South Dakota should be merged. WTF. Nobody lives there, just merge them, it will save money. Dakota sounds nice.
-West Virginia is an extremely generic and cheap state name. They didn't wanna have anything to do with VA cause of the civil war, so get fucking inventive. I think Kanawha would have been a better name.
-Again, North and South Carolina = Lame. Merge and call it Carolina. Much better. also sexier looking on a map. I know that would make NC even less blue but I think it's gone anyway this year.
-Montana is one ugly ass state on a map. Like, it started out as a square but got some huge ass infection on the left side, and that was the result.
PhoenixDark
Banned
Silver is saying either early voting numbers or LV models might be cause for questions/skepticism due to how ridiculous things are looking.
Qwerty710710
a child left behind
The number I'm most impressed by is the early voted granted its not going to be a 50 point lead by the time when all said in done. There's still about 2 weeks of early voting and if Obama could be over 20 points with early voting Romney viturally going to have to run the table on election day. Same with Iowa which Democrats almost have a 2 to 1 advantage so far so we can possibly be looking at the same scenario here.I don't think its going to be as nice in fl co and nc but we'll see.
Black Republican
Member
gulp, how will we sleep now?
PPP said:
This breaks down how early voting is going in FL,OH,IA,NC,and NV
https://secure.assets.bostatic.com/pdfs/Voter_Reg_and_Early_Voting_FINAL.pdf
https://secure.assets.bostatic.com/pdfs/Voter_Reg_and_Early_Voting_FINAL.pdf
But 50 states is such a nice even number..
What, Obama's lead is too big?
Paul Ryan math.
What, like we can't add a few more to make it even.
Black Republican
Member
SouthernDragon
Member
bwahahaha
Instead of crying salty tears ya'll should have been volunteering.
Gonna vote in Florida, make it blue!
Instead of crying salty tears ya'll should have been volunteering.
Gonna vote in Florida, make it blue!
Isn't it obvious that the LV screens would be the problem and not asking people whether directly whether or not they had already voted and who they voted for?
What's the insinuation by Silver?
Red Blaster
Member
But their gov is cool mang
Term is up next year, Schweitzer can move on to bigger and better things.
It seems to me that the specific purpose of an early-vote ground game such as Obama's is to bank voters who would show up as unlikely in the screens. The classic Gallup likely voter screen looks more or less like this:
mystery pollster said:
So a college student, for example, is going to rate around 3 or 4 at best, even with the free point they get for not having been old enough to vote in the last presidential election. Similarly, somebody working a minimum-wage job that might not give them time to vote is likely to score pretty poorly. Not surprisingly, these are also the people who are likely to fail to show up in November, either because they don't have the time and energy or because they don't feel like it's important. But these are exactly the type of people who are easy to bank with an early voter program, because it combines accessibility with commitment.
eBay Huckster
Member
Given the problems with LV models four years ago I'm not surprised Nate's seeing this
PhoenixDark
Banned
OFA does a great job of finding voters, registering them, getting them to fill out a ballot, and moving to someone else. I've seen them go through the process on campus with people who would likely have no time to vote at any point in November (due to school, work, forgetting, etc)
Aaron Strife
Banned
Lulz at only 52 new Republicans registered in Iowa over the past three months.
I mean, it makes sense - anyone who'd want to participate in the political process with conservative leanings would have voted in the caucuses. Still funny.
I mean, it makes sense - anyone who'd want to participate in the political process with conservative leanings would have voted in the caucuses. Still funny.
I mentioned the possibility before. GOTV efforts are most effective on voters who are mildly engaged with the process. So polls might underestimate them as they transgress the LV criteria. To my knowledge, there have been no attempts to quantify the discrepancy.
*exhales*
I can't wait for this election to be over. It's doing a number on my nerves.
I do hope the Obama campaign hasn't taken their eye off of Pennsylvania. The only sick positive that can keep things from going crazy is the possible misinformation on the voter id law is going to hit everyone on both sides. That they thought it would only hurt Dems still confuses me to be honest.
I can't wait for this election to be over. It's doing a number on my nerves.
I do hope the Obama campaign hasn't taken their eye off of Pennsylvania. The only sick positive that can keep things from going crazy is the possible misinformation on the voter id law is going to hit everyone on both sides. That they thought it would only hurt Dems still confuses me to be honest.
Well, yeah, that makes no sense to me. The marginal return is lower if you spend time getting someone to vote who was already likely to vote.
I'm not worried about my state, but, some new polling would be good.
Romney isn't even in the state at the moment, all Obama needs to do is run a few ads or do a robo call informing people about the rules.
Judge: Libertarians can stay on Pennsylvania ballot
http://www.mcall.com/news/local/elections/mc-pa-libertarians-on-ballot-20121011,0,4554184.story
The number is just to close for my liking with it already known and shown that republicans have been trying to screw with people. It's what 49/44 I think. If Obama was at 50 or 51 I'd feel a LOT better even though Romeny pulled people from the state.
That should help things at least. I just hope those on the Green Party doesn't screw any thing up in other states that really close. They aren't on the ballot in a lot places are they? Anyone know?
LV model most likely, the early voting is actually recorded and released by the state to both campaigns. In states like Iowa and OH where the DEM registration and request of absentee ballots is much higher than GOP its not hard to tell when the state says so and so % has voted
So I think the Obama campaign needs to start scheming how to control the media narrative after the debate. Maybe plan a SUPER ZINGER? The debate seems to matter less than the reaction, though actually the Biden result seems better than the media reaction would indicate.
Where is that data?
Biden crushing the GOP's golden boy isn't good for the narrative.
Also LOL at that Penn news.
He has none. The wheels have been turning far too long to change things now, and the election is only three weeks away.
Honestly, Romney lost Ohio and Michigan as soon as he wrote that article about letting Detroit go bankrupt.
Thanks
I wonder based on that data if Nevada could swing in Obama's favor but I feel that there is a lot of Sheldon money going around there, plus voter suppression.
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