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[Godslay]

I do. And if it weren't for you and your avatar, I'd never have discovered the music of New Album(or at least would've taken me a lot longer, we have an excellent college station here but I don't think they've played NA yet). Despite the spike in crime in some cities since the oil boom, I still love North Dakota.

Hahaha I'm not saying there's anything wrong with being there, but y'all should merge, srsly.

Could be worse, you could live in Wyoming!

I live in North Dakota, and grew up in Wyoming. Wonderful places even if you disagree with the politics.

 

[MasterShotgun]

A little late to the party, but good stuff Ohio. I wasn't in panic mode yet, but I felt it approaching. That news has calmed me down for now.

 

[Oblivion]

For all my fellow LA poligafers, thought you might be interested in making an easy $100:

http://losangeles.craigslist.org/wst/etc/3324904029.html

 

[Agent Unknown]

Hahaha I'm not saying there's anything wrong with being there, but y'all should merge, srsly.

Haha I know, just makin' sure I'd say my peace. And no, we shouldn't merge. There's a reason Stephen Colbert called South Dakota "North Dakota's dirty ashtray." lol

Could be worse, you could live in Wyoming!

I agree. Wyoming doesn't even really exist. Learned that on an episode of Garfield and Friends.

Anyways, to end this, one of my favorite Seinfeld quotes ever, from the Tuscany episode:

JERRY: I just wish I could figure out if this guy is trying to keep me out of Tuscany.

GEORGE: Of course he is. There's got to be houses for rent in Tuscany. Do you know how big Tuscany is?

JERRY: I have no idea.

GEORGE: It's huge. It's probably like North Dakota.

JERRY: Oh, no way it's that big.

GEORGE: It's a big region.

JERRY: Do you know how big North Dakota is stupid?

GEORGE: I don't know why I bother even talking to you.

JERRY: Hey, no one's got a gun to your head.

GEORGE: All right.

 

[isoquant]

Good news in Ohio for Obama.

If you are looking for a double dose of hopium today, Nate is doing some unskewing of his own (I kid - it's an interesting theory):

Are Polls Underestimating Obama’s Hispanic Vote?

In the past couple of elections, polls have underestimated Democrats’ standing in states with heavy Hispanic populations. (The two senate races that the FiveThirtyEight forecast called incorrectly in 2010 — Nevada and Colorado — are both states with a healthy number of Hispanic voters.)

This may be because many polling firms that conduct interviews only in English miss some Hispanic voters who are more comfortable speaking Spanish. According to Matt Barreto of the polling firm Latino Decisions, which conducts bilingual interviews, primarily Spanish-speaking Hispanic voters are more likely to vote Democratic than those who have more English fluency.

Polling firms such as Latino Decisions that have conducted interviews in Spanish have shown Mr. Obama with a larger advantage among Hispanic voters than those which interview in English only. The most recent Latino Decisions poll, for example, had Mr. Obama ahead 72-20 among Hispanic voters. This poll is not an outlier; other polling firms that have conducted Spanish-language interviews have found similar results.

...

However, the adjustment increased Mr. Obama’s win probability in Colorado to 57 percent from 44 percent, in Florida to 53 percent from 35 percent, and in Nevada to 77 percent from 62 percent. It even helped him slightly in Virginia, where about 5 percent of voters identified as Hispanic in 2008 exit polls.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytime...ona-and-the-spanish-speaking-vote/#more-36004

 

[HylianTom]

Another interesting tidbit about that Ohio poll?

Apparently, it may be slightly underestimating Democratic turnout. Obama may very well be up even more.

 

[The Lamonster]

I have been a longtime lurker of this thread since 2008 and I finally feel ready to start contributing. I have to be careful though due to work. Unfortunately I cannot go into details, but my job is directly tied to what happens on Nov 6th. We have been saying since early March that Ohio holds the key to the election. I am fairly confident that IA and NH are in our camp as well, and based off what I have seen and heard in VA, we are looking pretty good. If you are in a swing state, make sure to get out the vote and volunteer some of your time canvassing. OFA has an incredibly impressive ground game, but they need all the help they can get.

Great PPP poll.

Welcome!

If you get a chance to interact with the vice president, tell him THANK YOU!

 

[Plumbob]

Another interesting tidbit about that Ohio poll?

Apparently, it may be slightly underestimating Democratic turnout. Obama may very well be up even more.

That's just unskewer logic though. Party identification is pretty fluid.

 

[Officerrob]

I was out for the evening, but refuse to not express my happiness about the Ohio poll: HOLY FUCKING TITTY SHIT!! Oh my god I needed this poll so much. I'm doing my part volunteering here in Virginia, but a poll like this really lights a fire up my ass. Please bring me more good news tomorrow night PPP!!

 

[HylianTom]

That's just unskewer logic though. Party identification is pretty fluid.

True. I found it interesting that PPP thinks it's a good idea to point this out.

 

[codhand]

Watching Bill Maher, this Ann Coulter interview smdh.

 

[Cloudy]

Someone mentioned above that the campaigns get a list of early voters. Is this true?

 

[Trouble]

Someone mentioned above that the campaigns get a list of early voters. Is this true?

I highly doubt it. I don't see how that would be legal. Your balot choices are private.

 

[Dinokill]

So all the doom and gloom for this?

 

[Gotchaye]

I highly doubt it. I don't see how that would be legal. Your balot choices are private.

That you voted is public record. How you voted is not.

 

[markatisu]

I highly doubt it. I don't see how that would be legal. Your balot choices are private.

They get a list of people who have asked for early ballots, and they get told when those people vote. the results are private but the other info is available to the campaigns

I should know, I got a visit and email from the Obama campaign for voting via absentee ballot and it explicitly said the state let them know I voted and they hope it was for them.

 

[Trouble]

That you voted is public record. How you voted is not.

They get a list of people who have asked for early ballots, and they get told when those people vote. the results are private but the other info is available to the campaigns

I should know, I got a visit and email from the Obama campaign for voting via absentee ballot and it explicitly said the state let them know I voted and they hope it was for them.

Ah OK, that makes sense. Although, I don't like that info being given out. It's not really anyone else's business to know if you voted or not.

 

[Touchdown]

here we go

Ohio
#Obama - Romney

51-46

https://twitter.com/ppppolls

 

[Cloudy]

Ah OK, that makes sense. Although, I don't like that info being given out. It's not really anyone else's business to know if you voted or not.

I think it's okay as long as they don't show how you voted. If they couldn't mark off folks who've voted, it's be terribly inefficient for the GOTV folks

 

[RDreamer]

Ah OK, that makes sense. Although, I don't like that info being given out. It's not really anyone else's business to know if you voted or not.

Kind of reminds me of the thing we got a few months back. It was a list of everyone around us and whether they voted in the last election.

 

[Owzers]

Maybe Romney can retroactively get those 19% already cast votes for him?

 

[markatisu]

Ah OK, that makes sense. Although, I don't like that info being given out. It's not really anyone else's business to know if you voted or not.

Its a matter of public record, you agree to that when you register to vote. As long as they do not disclose the choices you make I don't see a problem with it.

 

[HylianTom]

I'm wondering how SNL will portray the debate tonight. They haven't really left their big mark on the election yet this year.

 

[Officerrob]

I'm wondering how SNL will portray the debate tonight. They haven't really left their big mark on the election yet this year.

It's all downhill from Palin

 

[B-Dubs]

I'm wondering how SNL will portray the debate tonight. They haven't really left their big mark on the election yet this year.

I hope it involves Biden laughing hysterically while Ryan tries to explain that the sky is green. Also MALARKEY.

 

[ivysaur12]

If you guys needed some hopium extract:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=73ksUPU0Nbo

Spoiler

And then we get Prop 8 about two hours later so boo.

(The Fox News version - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=13qfS2NZ2xg&feature=related)

 

[Cloudy]

I'm wondering how SNL will portray the debate tonight. They haven't really left their big mark on the election yet this year.

Ryan will be drinking water a lot lol

 

[Y2Kev]

If you guys needed some hopium extract:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=73ksUPU0Nbo

Spoiler

And then we get Prop 8 about two hours later so boo.

you promise hopium and then post cnn?

 

[Y2Kev]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x-V2zLEzxKk real hopium

 

[ivysaur12]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x-V2zLEzxKk real hopium

I'm tripping on hopium.

 

[codhand]

you promise hopium and then post cnn?

lol Cnn still use that same f'n reality TV show music.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x-V2zLEzxKk real hopium

Keith Olbermann ha

 

[Forever]

Another interesting tidbit about that Ohio poll?

Apparently, it may be slightly underestimating Democratic turnout. Obama may very well be up even more.

I doubt it; in 2008 Republicans were depressed, didn't like their candidate, and were treated to Sarah Palin on their ticket. Meanwhile the Democrats were fired up like the Messiah had arrived.

 

[Y2Kev]

So if Ohio and Iowa are called before 11pm, the race will end at 11 which will be nice. I can go to bed. If they're not, this is going to be a long haul and that will make me sad.

 

[Dreamcaster]

Going to be the auto bailout vs. the M1 tanks:

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/10/13/romney-ryan-ticket-hits-obama-admin-on-ohio-made-tanks/

"The military says we need a smaller, leaner Army. We need more special forces. ...We don’t need more M1 tanks. What we need is more UAVs,” Biden said while he sat opposite of Republican vice presidential nominee Rep. Paul Ryan, at the debate in Lexington, Ky. The vice president's words, which broke no new policy ground, were a reminder of the Pentagon's decision this year to halt the production line from 2014 to 2017 as the vehicle is redesigned.


Sen. Rob Portman, R-Ohio, who introduced the two candidates, made M1 tanks the central focus of his remarks.

"Joe Biden said a lot of interesting things, one was at a time of increasing danger all around the world," he said. "He said we ought to be cutting our military. Specifically, he said that we don't need any more M1 tanks. Did you hear that? Guess where those tanks are made, folks -- right here in the state of Ohio. We need M1 tanks because they're part of the greatest military on the face of the earth. They will ensure that we have a military second to none so that we can keep the peace. We need M1 tanks."

 

[HylianTom]

Funny thing.. the networks can bullshit their way through post-debate alternative reality spin, but when the voting numbers land with a big fuckin' thud, all the spin in the world cannot undo reality. Arithmetic.

If the numbers are on our side on Election Night, hopium can be found on all channels - yes, even on Fox News (although the hopium there may be laced with a bit of comedium or schadenfreudium).

 

[Arrowgigantic]

I have been a longtime lurker of this thread since 2008 and I finally feel ready to start contributing. I have to be careful though due to work. Unfortunately I cannot go into details, but my job is directly tied to what happens on Nov 6th.

So, how hard is it to make a hat for Aretha Franklin?

 

[NullPointer]

Funny thing.. the networks can bullshit their way through post-debate alternative reality spin, but when the voting numbers land with a big fuckin' thud, all the spin in the world cannot undo reality. Arithmetic.

If the numbers are on our side on Election Night, hopium can be found on all channels - yes, even on Fox News (although the hopium there may be laced with a bit of comedium or schadenfreudium).

Schadenfreudium is like Elven waybread though. One small bite is enough to fill the stomach of a grown man.

 

[ivysaur12]

So if Ohio and Iowa are called before 11pm, the race will end at 11 which will be nice. I can go to bed. If they're not, this is going to be a long haul and that will make me sad.

I'll be at work till 6, which means my PST commute from 6 to 7 should be FUN

 

[Duffyside]

Wait, is it PoliGAF's opinion that most TV networks are right-leaning, and not just Fox News?

 

[GhaleonEB]

Jesus, 19% of Ohioans voted already!? There's nearly still a month left! Are we going to get Ohio called before voting even begins on election day? lol

So the PPP poll says 19% voted already. There were 5.3m votes cast in Ohio in the 2008 election. Assuming equal turnout, that implies about a million votes cast already.

But according to this:

This breaks down how early voting is going in FL,OH,IA,NC,and NV
https://secure.assets.bostatic.com/pdfs/Voter_Reg_and_Early_Voting_FINAL.pdf

Only 100k ballots have been cast. How dated is the information on the OFA memo? That's a big gap. Either the memo data is very dated or the PPP poll oversampled those who have voted already. I can't find early voting information on the OH elections site.

 

[Godslay]

Going to be the auto bailout vs. the M1 tanks:

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/10/13/romney-ryan-ticket-hits-obama-admin-on-ohio-made-tanks/

That's a reach. Pentagon doesn't need them, and comparing them with the auto bailout which revived a whole industry, is not even on the same level as a plant with a few hundred workers. Plus GD probably wouldn't shut the doors. They would likely augment or build tanks for our allies. Meaning that the jobs won't get lost.

 

[Oblivion]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x-V2zLEzxKk real hopium

I was taking a night class at college the day of the election so I missed all the fun. I'd like to watch that clip in full, but not today. Soon.

 

[RDreamer]

Wait, is it PoliGAF's opinion that most TV networks are right-leaning, and not just Fox News?

No, most TV networks just do whatever produces the best ratings, i.e. close horse race. That and they tend to report things as he said she said instead of actually investigating what's correct. Fox News has a right slant, and MSNBC obviously has a left slant. CNN is the big one painfully trying to look like they're in the middle by doing the he said she said crap.

 

[Drakeon]

Wait, is it PoliGAF's opinion that most TV networks are right-leaning, and not just Fox News?

CNN doesn't lean any direction but stupid. Fox is obviously slanted right and msnbc left.

 

[HylianTom]

I'm going over Election Night in my mind as far as how the states will be called as various poll closing times come down the pipeline.

The East Coast should tell us how late a night it'll be just from the results of New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida. If Obama were to somehow lose all four of those (I am highly skeptical of this) but still win Ohio as handily as expected, we'd end-up waiting for Iowa to close.

 

[codhand]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=13qfS2NZ2xg#t=405s

Dose of schadenfreudium.

 

[Owzers]

That's a reach. Pentagon doesn't need them, and comparing them with the auto bailout which revived a whole industry, is not even on the same level as a plant with a few hundred workers. Plus GD probably wouldn't shut the doors. They would likely augment or build tanks for our allies. Meaning that the jobs won't get lost.

I like how Portman pretends to be in the Pentagon telling us what we need for the military though. It's cute.

 

[Tim-E]

If after the worst week of his two Presidential campaigns Obama doesn't drop below 50% in Ohio, then you guys have nothing to worry about.

 

[B-Dubs]

If after the worst week of his two Presidential campaigns Obama doesn't drop below 50% in Ohio, then you guys have nothing to worry about.

Yea, also I have to say that I LOVE your avatar. It's classy as fuck, gotta get me one of those jackets.

 

[Dreamcaster]

That's a reach. Pentagon doesn't need them, and comparing them with the auto bailout which revived a whole industry, is not even on the same level as a plant with a few hundred workers. Plus GD probably wouldn't shut the doors. They would likely augment or build tanks for our allies. Meaning that the jobs won't get lost.

Of course it's a reach - the only way they can play it up is along some line of "Obama wants your vote, but does he really care about Ohio after the election?"