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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.

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codhand

Member
Some 2,371 of you offered reactions to Biden’s performance.
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lol rude and awesome, pretty accurate.
 

Tim-E

Member
Yea, also I have to say that I LOVE your avatar. It's classy as fuck, gotta get me one of those jackets.

I never leave the house without my Lucky Debate Suit.

What if he implodes in his next 2 debates?

The Obama campaign is not going roll over and let Romney win this. His campaign is aggressive and they'll do what they have to in order to win. Romney got fucked in September and Obama didn't bother trying in the first debate because he didn't feel like he had to engage him. That obviously didn't work out in his favor, and I guarantee it won't happen again.
 

Godslay

Banned
I like how Portman pretends to be in the Pentagon telling us what we need for the military though. It's cute.

I understand where he is coming from. He's going to bat for his constituents. The problem is that it's not the whole story, and the plant could still be functional with work for foreign allies. I don't think it's necessarily wrong of him, and Jim Jordan, but it contrasts with the way the Pentagon is going and how they envision the future of the military.

Of course it's a reach - the only way they can play it up is along some line of "Obama wants your vote, but does he really care about Ohio after the election?"

I think he's proved that he's cared about Ohio during his term. Whether or not the voters see it that way is yet to be determined.
 

giga

Member
WILLIAMSBURG, Va. (AP) — President Barack Obama's campaign says it has surpassed 4 million donors, a record for a presidential campaign.

The president's field director Jeremy Bird announced the total in an email to supporters Saturday night.

Obama's campaign has relied on small donors to boost its fundraising totals through the summer and fall. The campaign raised $181 million in September, its biggest haul of the cycle.

Republican Mitt Romney's campaign has not yet announced its September fundraising numbers.
http://bigstory.ap.org/article/obam...ion-donors#overlay-context=users/rjagodzinski

August numbers: Obama, $114M. Romney, $111M.
 

Godslay

Banned
North Dakota and Montana were close in '08. Honestly for 2016/2020 I see those two and AZ/GA going blue quite easily if the Republican party doesn't change.

North Dakota was closer than it was in 2004. Even with that being said it was still 53% McCain to ~45% Obama. Not very close in the grand scheme of things.
 

Diablos

Member
So the PPP poll says 19% voted already. There were 5.3m votes cast in Ohio in the 2008 election. Assuming equal turnout, that implies about a million votes cast already.

But according to this:



Only 100k ballots have been cast. How dated is the information on the OFA memo? That's a big gap. Either the memo data is very dated or the PPP poll oversampled those who have voted already. I can't find early voting information on the OH elections site.
So are you saying the PPP poll is oversampled and thus closer to being an outlier?

Say it ain't so, man.
 
So the PPP poll says 19% voted already. There were 5.3m votes cast in Ohio in the 2008 election. Assuming equal turnout, that implies about a million votes cast already.

But according to this:



Only 100k ballots have been cast. How dated is the information on the OFA memo? That's a big gap. Either the memo data is very dated or the PPP poll oversampled those who have voted already. I can't find early voting information on the OH elections site.

Are they saying 19% of Ohioans have voted early, or that 19% of the people they polled have voted early?
 

Tim-E

Member
North Dakota and Montana were close in '08. Honestly for 2016/2020 I see those two and AZ/GA going blue quite easily if the Republican party doesn't change.

I think the right candidate could swing Montana easily. Clinton won it in 92, lost it by 2% in 96, and Obama only lost it by around 2% last time around. Their governor and both of their Senators are Democrats. Hillary has a broad appeal, and I think she could bring states like Montana into play. Like a lot of other states, they like moderate democrats, but don't do well with New England liberal types.
 

Particle Physicist

between a quark and a baryon
No, most TV networks just do whatever produces the best ratings, i.e. close horse race. That and they tend to report things as he said she said instead of actually investigating what's correct. Fox News has a right slant, and MSNBC obviously has a left slant. CNN is the big one painfully trying to look like they're in the middle by doing the he said she said crap.

I have to disagree with you on Fox News. It's not a simple right slant, it's an all out propaganda machine for the republicans.
 

Godslay

Banned
I think the right candidate could swing Montana easily. Clinton won it in 92, lost it by 2% in 96, and Obama only lost it by around 2% last time around. Their governor and both of their Senators are Democrats. Hillary has a broad appeal, and I think she could bring states like Montana into play. Like a lot of other states, they like moderate democrats, but don't do well with New England liberal types.

Montana possibly, North Dakota I highly doubt it.
 

RDreamer

Member
I have to disagree with you on Fox News. It's not a simple right slant, it's an all out propaganda machine for the republicans.

Yeah I was going to add that in there. Fox News is the PR mouthpiece for the Republican party. MSNBC is like a bunch of fanboys for the democrats, and a scattered few that happen to think in a left leaning way.


Are they saying 19% of Ohioans have voted early, or that 19% of the people they polled have voted early?

The latter.

The key finding on this poll may be how the early voters are breaking out. 19% of people say they've already cast their ballots and they report having voted for Obama by a 76-24 margin. Romney has a 51-45 advantage with those who haven't voted yet, but the numbers make it clear that he already has a lot of ground to make up in the final three weeks before the election.
 

pigeon

Banned
So are you saying the PPP poll is oversampled and thus closer to being an outlier?

Say it ain't so, man.

You really think the poll is off by a factor of ten and nobody noticed except one dickwad in New Hampshire on Twitter? If it's that wrong, we'll hear about it soon enough. Remember that:

* the campaigns don't get informed who the ballots are cast for, so whatever statistics those are, they are not the official "how many ballots are cast" statistics;
* you don't have to give party identification when requesting an absentee ballot in Ohio;
* Ohio has early voting in person as well as absentee voting for all of October.
 
You really think the poll is off by a factor of ten and nobody noticed except one dickwad in New Hampshire on Twitter? If it's that wrong, we'll hear about it soon enough. Remember that:

* the campaigns don't get informed who the ballots are cast for, so whatever statistics those are, they are not the official "how many ballots are cast" statistics;
* you don't have to give party identification when requesting an absentee ballot in Ohio;
* Ohio has early voting in person as well as absentee voting for all of October.
I think this is it.

So this just came out:

Yahoo News said:
Romney closing gap in Ohio as poll numbers, crowds rise
Bullshit. Obama led by 4 in PPP's last poll, this time he leads by 5. I know they point to the poll aggregate being closer (and it is), but this was timed specifically after the PPP poll. Trailing by 4 points to trailing by 5 points is not "closing gap."
 

Tim-E

Member
ugh


You're right! The PPP poll is wrong; Romney actually has a double digit lead in Ohio. His lead in Ohio is going to end up being very similar to his lead in Alabama.
 

Amir0x

Banned
here we go

Ohio
#Obama - Romney

51-46

https://twitter.com/ppppolls

Ohio:
PPP 51-45
CNN 51-47
NBC/WSJ/Marist poll 51-45

Ohio has been very consistent the last week.

ah, feels good to not be a psycho overreactor like other Dems after the debate. sanity feels good man!

Diablos said:
So are you saying the PPP poll is oversampled and thus closer to being an outlier?

Say it ain't so, man.

Hahaha, amazing. Psyched himself up over a bs Arizona poll; finds any opportunity to meltdown over consistently positive Ohio polling. lol. Fellow PA brother, relax.
 

HylianTom

Banned
Okay.. the SNL sketch was underwhelming. The best moment was either when Ryan was drinking out of a hamster water bottle, or when the moderator told the candidates not to "fuck [her] like they did Jim Lehrer."
 

Diablos

Member
ah, feels good to not be a psycho overreactor like other Dems after the debate. sanity feels good man!



Hahaha, amazing. Psyched himself up over a bs Arizona poll; finds any opportunity to meltdown over consistently positive Ohio polling. lol. Fellow PA brother, relax.
...I'm not melting down, I quoted someone else's post.
 

Chumly

Member
Wait, is it PoliGAF's opinion that most TV networks are right-leaning, and not just Fox News?
Fox News is not right leaning. It's a mouthpiece for the Republican Party. I think that networks like CNN are right leaning per say because they painfully try not to call out any bullshit or live in fear that fox news might call them out. Due to this pandering to the far right they end up leaning to the right to try and get those viewers.
 

Trouble

Banned
Fox News is not right leaning. It's a mouthpiece for the Republican Party. I think that networks like CNN are right leaning per say because they painfully try not to call out any bullshit.

I don't think that really makes CNN right leaning, just bad at journalism. Republicans just tend to do a better job of exploiting it.
 

Concept17

Member
I think the right candidate could swing Montana easily. Clinton won it in 92, lost it by 2% in 96, and Obama only lost it by around 2% last time around. Their governor and both of their Senators are Democrats. Hillary has a broad appeal, and I think she could bring states like Montana into play. Like a lot of other states, they like moderate democrats, but don't do well with New England liberal types.

I doubt it sadly. I've worked with the general public here on a daily basis for years and the number of racists and/or right-wing republicans is fairly staggering. I would LOVE to see it swing the other way, but I don't think it'll happen. Its largest city (billings, where I live) is half ran by church organizations, the biggest of which includes some of the most right-leaning people I've ever met. It may be because I'm not longer in college, but it felt like their was a lot more buzz for Obama in '08, than there is this time around. I could be completely wrong there. It really falls on how many young voters get out there.

Tester has done a really great job here though, and I'm certain he'll get another term.
 

Chumly

Member
I don't think that really makes CNN right leaning, just bad at journalism. Republicans just tend to do a better job of exploiting it.

I disagree. Just because they are terrible are journalism doesn't mean that republicans haven't pushed the network to the "right". I don't think it should be a contest between the parties to see who can "exploit" the media more. CNN has allowed themselves to move to the right to pander to the republican base.
 

pigeon

Banned
I don't think that really makes CNN right leaning, just bad at journalism. Republicans just tend to do a better job of exploiting it.

Yeah, what I would say is that Fox is right-leaning and every television network is terrible at journalism. The problem is that they're not in the business of providing news to viewers, they're in the business of providing viewers to advertisers -- different problem, different approach.
 
CNN certainly is right leaning. They frame budget issues as being solely dependent on cutting "entitlements," war monger on Iran, and love Paul Ryan. They clearly don't go as full retard as Fox or MSNBC does for the left, but CNN is center right. To make matters worse, they deliberately attempt to give republicans "equal" respect which apparently means to give credence to ridiculous anti-Obama views such as the Jack Welsh shit.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
CNN certainly is right leaning. They frame budget issues as being solely dependent on cutting "entitlements," war monger on Iran, and love Paul Ryan. They clearly don't go as full retard as Fox or MSNBC does for the left, but CNN is center right. To make matters worse, they deliberately attempt to give republicans "equal" respect which apparently means to give credence to ridiculous anti-Obama views such as the Jack Welsh shit.

From what I saw of their reaction to the Jack Welsh shit they mostly seemed to rip it to shreds...but then again the only things I watch on CNN are Soledad and AC360.
 

Jimothy

Member
I doubt it sadly. I've worked with the general public here on a daily basis for years and the number of racists and/or right-wing republicans is fairly staggering. I would LOVE to see it swing the other way, but I don't think it'll happen. Its largest city (billings, where I live) is half ran by church organizations, the biggest of which includes some of the most right-leaning people I've ever met. It may be because I'm not longer in college, but it felt like their was a lot more buzz for Obama in '08, than there is this time around. I could be completely wrong there. It really falls on how many young voters get out there.

Tester has done a really great job here though, and I'm certain he'll get another term.

Places like Bozeman and Missoula that attract people from states like Cali and Oregon have the ability to turn the state blue in the next decade or so. MT is similar to NC in that respect.
 
From what I saw of their reaction to the Jack Welsh shit they mostly seemed to rip it to shreds...but then again the only things I watch on CNN are Soledad and AC360.

Those two actually do some reporting. Blitzer and company are basically Beltway concern trolls
 
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