Bam Bam Baklava
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Any thoughts on the situation in Ohio?
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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.
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Any thoughts on the situation in Ohio?
Isn't the answer somewhere between the two? And don't the numbers sometimes slowly converge as it gets closer to election? Also, if you're talking a state like Ohio I think Obama's ground game probably puts it closer to the RV number than the LV.
LV. Its those most likely to vote. All polls switch to the likely voter model in the last weeks of the election.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Obama up 1 in today's IBD/TIPP poll. Garbage poll disclaimer though.
http://news.investors.com/special-report/508415-ibdtipp-poll.aspx
http://news.investors.com/special-report/508415-ibdtipp-poll.aspx
Its funny how every time someone argues against O or B on any topic, not even on politics but like rhetoric or appearance in interviews and debates. They get insulted by Lib-gaf. I mean personal insults. I do not understand this hate from both sides fans for each other.
If someone says "I like Romneys view on X". He can be certain to get replies such "i want some of what your smokin son", "oh how is Saturnus these days?", must be great to be so ignorant".
I am sure i will get these replies now:
"ehhhhhh maybe its bcus Romney is a bat insane robot"
"ehhhhhh maybe bcus Obamarama knows what he is doing unlike Ryan/Romney who are lying fools"
"U mad?"
" Biden or Obama pic/meme saying some bs to make fun of whoever its a reply to"
"all of above just to be fun"
"wow Republicans sure are getting desperate"
"obscure poligaf reference to some teaparty nutty who got banned or left"
If someone says "I like Romneys view on X". He can be certain to get replies such "i want some of what your smokin son", "oh how is Saturnus these days?", must be great to be so ignorant".
I am sure i will get these replies now:
"ehhhhhh maybe its bcus Romney is a bat insane robot"
"ehhhhhh maybe bcus Obamarama knows what he is doing unlike Ryan/Romney who are lying fools"
"U mad?"
" Biden or Obama pic/meme saying some bs to make fun of whoever its a reply to"
"all of above just to be fun"
"wow Republicans sure are getting desperate"
"obscure poligaf reference to some teaparty nutty who got banned or left"
Gallup and Ras are taking away my hopium, this is unacceptable.
Why is he not gaining in Gallup >:|
This poll is bullshit.
Why is he not gaining in Gallup >:|
That is funny.
You're such a victim.
My gut is he wins Ohio and eeks out a very very very slim 2000/2004 victory. I am pretty convinced unless he turns polling around he will lose the popular vote regardless if he wins the EC though. The red states really really hate him, there are going to be some insane margins in the bible belt.
A lot hinges on Tuesday, a must win. If Romney leads the post debate polls of who won Obama will lose the election.
Why would you even listen to Rassmussen? They've made it clear that they're in the business of providing the GOP what they want to hear. (And it's a very lucrative business, as Rupert Murdoch can attest.)
This is really what Silver and others were missing re: the disparity between swing state and national numbers over the past 6 months. It indicated Romney's support was being buffeted by voters in states he was going to win anyway.
It might just be you.
If he doesn't win the popular vote there's gonna be lawsuits out the wazoo from the GOP. It'll be like 2000 all over again.
If he wins OH then I think he'll get NM and probably NV. That should hopefully put him ahead.
Every Democrat I talk to (outside of PoliGAF) is "chicken-littling". And that's cause for concern. Everyone is still upset at how Obama bombed the first debate and are feeling really uneasy about his chances etc.
If memory serves they were the most accurate in their election day polling back in 08.
We were on that ledge until the Ohio numbers came out. Show them the Ohio poll and the electoral map and tell them to chill out.
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
There was a perfectly civil and constructive conversation with RicochetJ recently, mostly because he didn't come in with his hackles already up. You know, like this.
I KNOW you know that they change their models towards the end because it's been posted at least five times in here and you are a regular. You just want us to affirm you. Well no sir not doing it. OBAMA DOOM
Thing is, Democrats who aren't quite as engaged as we are won't give a shit about that. They'll stay upset and preparing for the worst. That's a bigger issue at hand here imo. Can Democrats/left leaning swing voters keep their head in the game and not give up too early.
I didn't know that actually, I thought they were increasingly accurate in the month leading up to the election in 08, but I don't remember all the details sir.
I don't want to be "affirmed", I thought Ras gets more accurate in the weeks leading up to the election.
Of course Diablos only has a 10-15min span before he is back on the ledge, and Cheebo is basically PDII
Why not? Explain it to them in simple terms, it's not complicated. Obama is still winning.
fwiw I HAVE talked to some Dems about the PPP poll. And the OFA Jeremy Bird document. Their response is along the lines of "well that's great but Republicans are really excited now and we're all freaking out because he was such an idiot during the first debate" blah blah heard it all before. Fact is a lot of Dems seem to be feeling that way here.
This sucks, but it's true. There's been no evidence that Romney's bounce was temporary and everything's going back to normal, as many had hoped. The race seems to have genuinely tightened across the board.
Officerrob
Banned
No, just no
Which isn't surprising, given how Romney was having issues solidifying GOP support.
Wouldn't this have happened regardless of the debate? The national polls always tighten like this. If the national polls have influence on state polling in silver's modeling, maybe we're just being annoying?
Baraka in the White House
2-Terms of Kombat
Yep, we're down to the wire and a whole bunch of disillusioned Republicans finally hopped on the last train to Romneyville.
Hmm, I don't think Cheebs is a troll and PD, while he does troll often, is being pretty serious right now because we're almost halfway to the election. I'm sure as hell not a troll.
Fact is, while the PPP OH poll was a breath of fresh air for us, the national polling is still looking pretty dismal right now. It's enirely way too close for comfort, with Romney finally sustaining a lead, even if it's slight. This is not where you want to be so close to election night.
And again, outside of PoliGAF, talking to people face to face... everyone seems to be worried sick right now.
There's a book about that: Better Off Without 'Em: A Northern Manifesto for Southern Secession
If it ever happened the Democratic party would probably split into a center right and leftist parties along the lines of European norms, while the Confederacy basked in some bizarre theocratic fascist Randian nightmare.
I'd happily join up with the new center right.
Unfortunately you can't get that across to the people here who think that national polls mean something for some reason.
Tempted to make a "birds of a feather..." comment here.
Pretty clear Romney got a national bounce which has flatlined, even marginally receding. But that same national bounce was not enough to tip enough swing states his way. And there's a good argument to make that things were going to tighten anyways, given where Romney's boost came from.
I'm expecting things to stay largely static until the next debate. After that we'll have a pretty good feel for the trajectory of things. Right now feels like a holding pattern, with Obama a nearly 2:1 favorite. I'm okay with this.
Probably the safe assumption here is that everybody you know is just as ridiculous as you.
Officerrob
Banned
With all the mood swings, we might as well rename this Bipolar-Gaf
It would have surely tightened regardless. Just finally seeing the two of them on the same stage together would have made some people give Mitt a second chance.
It's just that it didn't have to be this bad. Not nearly as bad. I'm confident Obama would be the one leading (even if slightly) right now in Gallup/Ras/etc and not Mitt.
Not really. They're not even that liberal, just sane, and not dumb enough to buy into the GOP's crap. They are not traditional worryworts if that's what you're getting at
A Virginia poll will release this evening with Obama +2% and they'll be popping champagne.
Yeah, the good news is that Obama has a firm base that isn't moving, just shedding a bit of soft low-info voters who were turned off by everything Romney in September. If I had to guess, part of what we're seeing now would have happened even if Obama performed well in the debate, though perhaps not as steeply. Romney was always going to win over some people before election day, Obama's performance just sped up the process a little.
If USA is really gonna change i think Romney winning will speed that change up. With Obama, we would just keep muddle through. The backlash among the Obama supporters if he loose would speed up reforms with the political system. Im sure some bluestaters would even seriously start propose an exit from the federation.
Great news: Only three weeks and change to go!
...that wasn't as encouraging as it sounded in my head.
Haha no. I'm talking a teacher, professional business guy who never worries about anything, stay at home mom, grandmother, banker, marketing rep... and these people are not like me in that they constantly worry. They ARE worried now though.Tempted to make a "birds of a feather..." comment here.
And all the GOPers in my office are fired up. Pre-debate they put on the "whoever wins, we lose" gameface because they thought Romney was a pussy. Now they're all proud to be Republicans again and it makes me wanna stab myself in the neck with a pencil
Yeah I really don't think I cant take much more of this haha.
Dude Abides
Banned
You're no SomeDude.
Officerrob
Banned
Congratulations on posting one of the dumbest things I've ever read
eBay Huckster
Member
Can we have Kosmo back now?
This is the craziest election cycle ever
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