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[GhaleonEB]

Haha no. I'm talking a teacher, professional business guy who never worries about anything, stay at home mom, grandmother, banker, marketing rep... and these people are not like me in that they constantly worry. They ARE worried now though.

And all the GOPers in my office are fired up. Pre-debate they put on the "whoever wins, we lose" gameface because they thought Romney was a pussy. Now they're all proud to be Republicans again and it makes me wanna stab myself in the neck with a pencil

Good. Let them be worried. Tell them to translate their worry in action. Donate, volunteer, engage in informed discussion with their friends and family and neighbors. And make damn sure they vote.

And remind them that it's not going to be a blowout, and was never going to be.

Yeah I really don't think I cant take much more of this haha.

I read this thread about 1/4 as much as I did a couple weeks ago. It's been good for my stress levels.

 

[pigeon]

Haha no. I'm talking a teacher, professional business guy who never worries about anything, stay at home mom, grandmother, banker, marketing rep... and these people are not like me in that they constantly worry. They ARE worried now though.

And all the GOPers in my office are fired up. Pre-debate they put on the "whoever wins, we lose" gameface because they thought Romney was a pussy. Now they're all proud to be Republicans again and it makes me wanna stab myself in the neck with a pencil

What are they worried about? These people follow the national tracking polls?

 

[Loudninja]

If USA is really gonna change i think Romney winning will speed that change up. With Obama, we would just keep muddle through. The backlash among the Obama supporters if he loose would speed up reforms with the political system. Im sure some bluestaters would even seriously start propose an exit from the federation.

I agree... wait what?

This is complete nonsense.

 

[eBay Huckster]

No, seriously, can we just sacrifice this Sealda guy to bring Kosmo back? I'd rather have gloating and breathtaking false equivalencies than this.

 

[Tim-E]

He said something about Obama being loose. I think he's saying that our President is a slut.

 

[Forever]

This is the craziest election cycle ever

I don't know, 2008 was off the hook.

 

[gkryhewy]

If USA is really gonna change i think Romney winning will speed that change up. With Obama, we would just keep muddle through. The backlash among the Obama supporters if he loose would speed up reforms with the political system. Im sure some bluestaters would even seriously start propose an exit from the federation.

Again, literacy: how does it work?

 

[Loudninja]

This is the craziest election cycle ever

I think the senate race is way crazier.

 

[eBay Huckster]

He said something about Obama being loose. I think he's saying that our President is a slut.

we need to end the war on obamas!

 

[Tim-E]

I think this guy is just copy and pasting posts from political discussions on my area's local Topix forum.

 

[Diablos]

I don't know, 2008 was off the hook.

The primary season was, yes.

What are they worried about? These people follow the national tracking polls?

Yeah. And they aren't as receptive to good state-by-state polling right now because of how upset they are over the first debate. Really, they just seem to be in a state of near panic/omg he's gonna lose. Everything is riding on the second debate, polls be damned. Everyone sounds like a broken record. How Mitt wasted all of Sept. and gave Obama a huge lead, and Obama blew it by not even preparing for sealing the deal, blah blah, how could this happen, how's he gonna stop the GOP enthusiasm, we're all worried, blah blah.

Also just talked to a dude last night who, like Cheebs, thinks the popular vote is gonna go to Romney but Obama gets the EV's he needs to win. It might be wrong but the fact is way too many Dem voters are semi-barfing on themselves at the moment, you don't want that so close to the 6th

 

[B-Dubs]

If USA is really gonna change i think Romney winning will speed that change up. With Obama, we would just keep muddle through. The backlash among the Obama supporters if he loose would speed up reforms with the political system. Im sure some bluestaters would even seriously start propose an exit from the federation.

Secession soon? Somedude is that you? My mind is full of fuck...

 

[Slime]

If USA is really gonna change i think Romney winning will speed that change up. With Obama, we would just keep muddle through. The backlash among the Obama supporters if he loose would speed up reforms with the political system. Im sure some bluestaters would even seriously start propose an exit from the federation.

Liberals might be manic as fuck when we don't get our way, but nowhere near as insane as the right. For fuck's sake, they've been ranting about socialism, the apocalypse and the impending destruction of the constitution while being governed by a centre-right moderate who's been more effective on defense than his predecessor, shrunk the size of government considerably, saved millions of jobs, and stood up for civil rights. A president Romney would throw a wrench in all that good, but if you actually thinking Dems would head for the hills you're delusional. We'd probably just be kinda angry for a few days, then get depressed, and go back to the usual hopelessness/self-loathing/cynicism we experienced for the last decade.

 

[pigeon]

Yeah. And they aren't as receptive to good state-by-state polling right now because of how upset they are over the first debate. Really, they just seem to be in a state of near panic/omg he's gonna lose. Everything is riding on the second debate, polls be damned. Everyone sounds like a broken record. How Mitt wasted all of Sept. and gave Obama a huge lead, and Obama blew it by not even preparing for sealing the deal, blah blah, how could this happen, how's he gonna stop the GOP enthusiasm, we're all worried, blah blah.

Also just talked to a dude last night who, like Cheebs, thinks the popular vote is gonna go to Romney but Obama gets the EV's he needs to win. It might be wrong but the fact is the Dem base is semi-barfing on themselves at the moment, you don't want that so close to the th

Let me help you out.

https://mmicdata.rand.org/alp/?page=election#predicted-winner

 

[Forever]

The primary season was, yes.

Are we forgetting the Palin craziness?

John "I'm suspending my campaign" McCain?

The Biden gaffe machine?

 

[Tim-E]

BREAKING NEWS: Earth to leave the United Federation of Planets

 

[Diablos]

Let me help you out.

https://mmicdata.rand.org/alp/?page=election#predicted-winner

Doesn't Nate think Rand is a clown pollster?

Are we forgetting the Palin craziness?

John "I'm suspending my campaign" McCain?

The Biden gaffe machine?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...12_vs_election_2008_four_years_ago_today.html

The +8.2 Obama lead?

 

[Loudninja]

Are we forgetting the Palin craziness?

John "I'm suspending my campaign" McCain?

The Biden gaffe machine?

Hah that was so awful.

 

[pigeon]

Doesn't Nate think Rand is a clown pollster?

For fuck's sake, no. What in God's name is wrong with your ability to distinguish actual information from Cheebo information?

 

[Forever]

Doesn't Nate think Rand is a clown pollster?


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...12_vs_election_2008_four_years_ago_today.html

The +8.2 Obama lead?

It was still off the hook, and I distinctly recall Democrats being on the ledge after the Republican convention when McCain took the lead with his Palin bounce.

Then Palin got interviewed by Katie Couric and the whole country realized she was a dingbat. Exciting times.

 

[Diablos]

For fuck's sake, no. What in God's name is wrong with your ability to distinguish actual information from Cheebo information?

I seem to remember reading that at some point myself actually, can't remember when.

 

[B-Dubs]

I seem to remember reading that at some point myself actually, can't remember when.

I'm pretty sure that was someone trolling.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Terrible to hear about Arlen Specter. You can tell his party switch was out of political expediency but I got the feeling he truly loved what he did. At least he lived a long life.

RIP

 

[Tim-E]

I seem to remember reading that at some point myself actually, can't remember when.

It was probably a Cheebo post.

 

[Kusagari]

If you're counting primaries then 2012 wins in a landslide.

You can't beat the election that gave us Herman Cain.

 

[PhoenixDark]

Cheebs has a long history of accurate predictions. Just saying

 

[Forever]

If you're counting primaries then 2012 wins in a landslide.

You can't beat the election that gave us Herman Cain.

The tragic clusterfuck of crazy that was the Republican primary this year is still nothing compared to the epic duel between Obama and the Clintons.

Cheebs has a long history of accurate predictions. Just saying

Let's not forget that Konex has already pronounced that Obama is doomed. Just saying.

 

[Diablos]

Cheebs has a long history of accurate predictions. Just saying

What a troll.

 

[Slime]

The tragic clusterfuck of crazy that was the Republican primary this year is still nothing compared to the epic duel between Obama and the Clintons.

This is why none of us should be freaking out, really. Obama beat the Clintons. Just think about that.

 

[Diablos]

The tragic clusterfuck of crazy that was the Republican primary this year is still nothing compared to the epic duel between Obama and the Clintons.

Well yes, for pure entertainment the GOP primary wins.

But for drama, Obama vs. Clinton was insane, as you said

But the GE in 08 was much... safer. If you were a Democrat. If you were a GOPer it was like rooting for Bob Dole 1.5.

 

[Cheebo]

What a troll.

PD and I had a pretty damn good track record in the 08 primaries.

I remember back during the primaries where everyone mocked PD and I for predicting Clinton would win Texas and Ohio in the primaries. The bitter tears for that were fantastic.
We again did the same thing for PA. PoliGAF never failed to predict Obama would win. It easy pickings. Same with NH. I remember being mocked for chicken littling over Hillary's tears lol.

 

[Diablos]

Yeah, I remember that. I did vote for Obama here but I was pretty sure Hillary was gonna win

 

[Tim-E]

I remember back during the primaries where everyone mocked PD and I for predicting Clinton would win Texas and Ohio in the primaries. The bitter tears for that were fantastic.

We again did the same thing for PA. PoliGAF never failed to predict Obama would win.

Obama went on to the primary and then the general election, so who cares if you guessed three states right? This matters about as much as national polls do, i. e. not at all.

 

[gkryhewy]

I remember back during the primaries where everyone mocked PD and I for predicting Clinton would win Texas and Ohio in the primaries. The bitter tears for that were fantastic.

We again did the same thing for PA. PoliGAF never failed to predict Obama would win. It easy pickings. I remember how PD and I had the best track record of picking who'd win the primary states by the end of the whole thing since we also jumped aboard Hillary for NH.

Are you now predicting that obama will lose the election this year?

 

[Loudninja]

So annoying.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Something to consider - of the five Republicans who voted not to impeach Clinton, Jim Jeffords, John Chafee, Arlen Specter, Susan Collins, and Olympia Snowe, only one will still be in office after this year. Compared to 17 of the 45 Democrats.

 

[PhoenixDark]

PD and I had the best track record in the 08 primaries.

I remember back during the primaries where everyone mocked PD and I for predicting Clinton would win Texas and Ohio in the primaries. The bitter tears for that were fantastic.

We again did the same thing for PA. PoliGAF never failed to predict Obama would win. It easy pickings. Same with NH. I remember being mocked for chicken littling over Hillary's tears lol.

We also predicted NH

 

[pigeon]

PD and I had a pretty damn good track record in the 08 primaries.

I remember back during the primaries where everyone mocked PD and I for predicting Clinton would win Texas and Ohio in the primaries. The bitter tears for that were fantastic.
We again did the same thing for PA. PoliGAF never failed to predict Obama would win. It easy pickings. Same with NH. I remember being mocked for chicken littling over Hillary's tears lol.

I don't really have a opinion on your predictions, I just object to you repeatedly posting stuff that's factually incorrect.

 

[Dude Abides]

This is why none of us should be freaking out, really. Obama beat the Clintons. Just think about that.

I don't think that says much about this year's general election one way or the other.

 

[Cheebo]

We also predicted NH

Yep! Everyone mocked us bad for that one. So enjoyable. Even worse because I was on team Obama predicting when he would lose, PoliGAF refused to concede Obama would lose even in states it was obvious. I miss those threads.

Are you now predicting that obama will lose the election this year?

Right now? He'll win in a 2000/2004 style Bush victory. If he loses the debate tuesday I am predicting he'll lose though. He can't withstand two losses. If he is behind at all in the post-debate snap polls I will be switching from slim Obama victory to slim Romney victory.

 

[Diablos]

Right now? He'll win in a 2000/2004 style Bush victory. If he loses the debate tuesday I am predicting he'll lose though. He can't withstand two losses.

Agreed.

 

[Slime]

Thanks to the primaries, 2008 was probably the most stressful year of my life.

Feels like it was only yesterday I was watching and re-watching Obama's '04 DNC speech and listening to his little podcasts on his Senate website and hoping he'd run, way back in '06. Then waking up on a Saturday morning to watch him announce his candidacy in '07.

Amazing how far we've come. I even vividly remember seeing CNN talk about him getting elected to the Senate, and thinking "what an interesting name."

I don't think that says much about this year's general election one way or the other.

Definitely not, but it was a craaazy feat. Mitt shouldn't be a problem. Surprised that he has been these past couple weeks, though. Hope things turn around on Tuesday.

 

[Y2Kev]

Right now? He'll win in a 2000/2004 style Bush victory. If he loses the debate tuesday I am predicting he'll lose though. He can't withstand two losses. If he is behind at all in the post-debate snap polls I will be switching from slim Obama victory to slim Romney victory.

That's not much of a prediction!

 

[giga]

Doesn't Nate think Rand is a clown pollster?

I seem to remember reading that at some point myself actually, can't remember when.

Unless you can provide some actual citations about what you're saying, people won't bother to take you seriously. So instead insinuating something by asking questions or thinking you remembered reading about something, try and find what you read and where you read it and share that with us. That would be far more helpful to the discussion.

 

[Tim-E]

That's not much of a prediction!

So broad that he can claim he's "right" again this year whatever the outcome.

 

[Cheebo]

That's not much of a prediction!

I may be a chicken little but I am not going to make some off the wall prediction for the sake of it!

If the snap polls after show Romney winning on tuesday the all out panic in this thread is going to be something epic.

So broad that he can claim he's "right" again this year whatever the outcome.

No, I'll be pretty locked in post-debate tuesday. Right now slim Obama victory, could change then though. But that is the final moment before I 100% lock in. Third debate won't matter if he loses the first two.

The story as I see it of the 2012 election is debates matter. A lot. The debates were central to the GOP primary and pretty much determined everything (whoever did best in a given debate became the front runner till Romney got really good at it and out-debated Newt). And the first debate in the general had a huge impact on the state of the race.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

So broad that he can claim he's "right" again this year whatever the outcome.

Either Barack Obama is gonna win or Romney or it will be a tie. It's also possible a 3rd party candidate will win.


I guess I've covered all my bases.

 

[Diablos]

Unless you can provide some actual citations about what you're saying, people won't bother to take you seriously. So instead of asking questions or thinking you remembered reading about something, try and find what you read and where you read it and share that with us. That would be far more helpful to the discussion.

We're adding the RAND national tracking poll to our database. Methodology is unorthodox, but (IMO) in a smart way.

http://muckrack.com/fivethirtyeight/statuses/244609517994786816

Welp, just found this.

I do recall at some point in the past though, Nate saying something about RAND being a bit off. I can't remember when it was. Just because I can't cite the time and day he said it doesn't mean I'm trolling you.

 

[Y2Kev]

I may be a chicken little but I am not going to make some off the wall prediction for the sake of it!

If the snap polls after show Romney winning on tuesday the all out panic in this thread is going to be something epic.



No, I'll be pretty locked in post-debate tuesday. Right now slim Obama victory, could change then though. But that is the final moment before I 100% lock in. Third debate won't matter if he loses the first two.

If it's 51-49 romney I really don't think it'll be that big a deal.

 

[gkryhewy]

I may be a chicken little but I am not going to make some off the wall prediction for the sake of it!

If the snap polls after show Romney winning on tuesday the all out panic in this thread is going to be something epic.

Really depends on the margin. A functional draw is a win for obama.