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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.
- Thread starter Amir0x
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Was that so hard? Now you and others know that the RAND poll is credible.
The debate will very very likely just be a functional draw. Obama's not going to do anything too terrible, and at this point Romney would have to literally shit a brick on stage for enough people on both sides to straight out say he lost.
Because VP debates never impact the horse race, the presidential ones have the ability to.
Remember when Lloyd Bentsen crushed Dan Quayle? Didn't help Dukakis at all. While Dukakis's weak performances against H.W. hurt him a lot.
Yep, yep.
Honestly when was the last time a first debate mattered so much? I mean wow. Pure lunacy. I guess in the age of increasingly obsessive 24/7 news, the interwebs, and a perversion of political advertising it's to be expected.
On top of that there's really no "big" event tied to this election. Not a huge national security threat, and the economy is still ho-hum but not on the brink of collapse like last time. So that may also make debates stick out more.
If Ryan was any indication, he will shit a brick on foreign policy. He better be working on better answers than Ryan had is all I'm saying.
RAND seems odd. Seems like it could be a great tracking poll, but it hinges on getting the sample absolutely correct from the get-go. If that's on, then the trends would probably be pretty decent and subject to less noise than other polls. Still, if the beginning sample is questionable even slightly it could be a bit messy to apply to the entire nation.
Except on the Libya issue. Obama needs to get a straight story on that.
Except on the Libya issue. Obama needs to get a straight story on that.
Social networking I think is a big reason, particularly the rise of Twitter since the last election. Events where a ton of people are watching at the same time floods twitter and facebook and dominates all the information going in to the people who aren't watching.
From "Sir, you're no Jack Kennedy" 88 to
"Oh so you're Jack Kennedy now lolz" in 2012
Democrat VP debate curse? :O
The last time I watched them for anything election-related was the Coakley/Brown Senate race.
Their desire to be nothing but totally neutral is mind-numbing and does almost as much of a disservice to news as Fox.
Romney has no leg to stand on when it comes to foreign policy, but given that he's decided to continue exploiting the Libya situation, Obama's going to have to be careful there. It sucks that he's going to be attacked on something no President could likely have handled much better, but these asshats are going to try to put him on the defensive just to force him to deal with an emotional issue. It's disgusting.
No doubt on both. The RAND poll seems like it could be really good if they get the demos spot on.
Seems like the best answer what they're already giving with a touch of shaming Romney for politicizing the issue by bringing up his FP comments on the 47% tape and promising to get the attackers
The instant the CIA base info came out everything crystallized as to why they've been so weird about it, even after it was widely reported that we thought the protests were used as a cover.
But has there been a recent candidate that has consistently - even through the convention - engendered such levels of apathy from their base as Romney has this cycle? Judging by where Romney's gains are it almost seems like the debate simply corrected an almost epic level of apathy from the base (both because of Romney himself and the horrible September he had), and combine that with perhaps some swing of low-info soft Obama voters the correction looks big simply because there was a large amount of Repubs not giving a damn about Romney until he put on a good performance (regardless of the fact that he threw their actual political leanings under the bus for appearance's sake).
I'm not saying it couldn't have been avoided, and obviously the narrative resulting from this is as bad or worse, I'm just not sure mathematically it really says anything about there being a huge electoral shift by people that would entertain voting for Obama in the first place rather than just shoring up those that would never vote for Obama but didn't care about Romney at all (and unfortunately for Romney all those people may be in states he's already got locked down).
littleworm
Member
So do we have an ETA on the FL and NC polls?
Aaron Strife
Banned
I'll watch the election on whichever network I happen to come across first.
Or maybe i'll just F5 the shit out of neogaf.
Or maybe i'll just F5 the shit out of neogaf.
Another day, another panic, another Obama fundraising deadline email
Sure, but how could this possibly be a strong point for Romney? Obama got Bin Laden and is ending two very unpopular wars. GOP should just come out and say that they don't like black people.
Yea it kinda makes sense why they're all hush hush considering it all happened on a CIA base.
hydragonwarrior
Member
But it goes both ways - have you seen the Facebook page for Mitt Romney? Scary amount of brainwashed people there.
Libya is a huge weakness for Obama. The Biden answer made that obvious. They just don't really have a great story on it and nobody has refuted that "turned down request for more security" line in any really convincing way.
Dude Abides
Banned
It takes the luster off of those.
They can counter with the "Ryan voted to cut embassy security" line and it's a wash at worst.
Not at all.
Right. If they had a good answer, Biden would have given it instead of pivoting immediately to other topics during the debate.
The changing stories are a problem. I personally do not think the security issue has great legs, but the shifting explanations do.
The request was for Tripoli not Benghazi and would have made no difference. Seems like they want to go with the requests never reaching the WH though. I think that's a mistake though cos the GOP will just say if you take credit for Bin Laden, you have to take blame here.
That said, it's really interesting how they aren't going after the Secretary of State but moving straight to the President. Shows just how political it is
It is gaining more and more traction.
According to who?
Aaron Strife
Banned
I don't know if Libya is a winning issue for Romney, necessarily. That Ohio poll had Obama leading on the issue 51-43. That could just be Ohio, maybe it's different in the non swing states, but at best I think it's a wash. Romney killed his credibility on the issue by immediately politicizing it.
Libya is peanuts compared to everything else. And coming from a guy that protested for the Vietnam draft while he dodged it in France? That guy is strong on foreign policy? What a joke.
Maybe I'm biased because I've been with the libertarians and progressives on not wanting these wars much at all. Covert teams to kill terrorist leaders sure, but not much else.
This is part of the reason why Democrats are so bad at getting elected. This scenario is so unbelievably in Obama's favor, but somehow the message is off.
Maybe I'm biased because I've been with the libertarians and progressives on not wanting these wars much at all. Covert teams to kill terrorist leaders sure, but not much else.
This is part of the reason why Democrats are so bad at getting elected. This scenario is so unbelievably in Obama's favor, but somehow the message is off.
Yeah, I mean, this is really kind of a wishy washy statement. Lloyd Bentsen could actually have helped Dukakis quite a bit. Dukakis was so weak that any effect would have been washed out in the end result.
That said, on your prediction, I would take it that you are not buying the "Obama already has Iowa and Ohio due to early voting" line?
Don't see how Romney can win if Obama gets those two.
Hey, I think it's a tiny, insignificant issue but Biden did not answer the question convincingly. It was the ONLY question he did not smash Ryan on in my opinion and it was the first. If Libya comes up first, it could be disastrous for Obama because it would dictate the pace of the debate again.
No its not.
Saying this does not make it true. Sorry.
Yes it is. It was a topic in the debate, has gained more media attention and was a prominent subject today on the morning shows. I'm not judging the effectiveness of it, but it has absolutely gained more prominence in the last week.
Wow disastrous really?
Maybe among conservatives, but it isn't something you're likely to see on the news every night.
Libya was in the nightly news every day since the Congressional hearings IIRC. Carney was questioned pretty tough at his last briefing and like I said it was a prominent subject today on the morning shows.
I heard the request for more security was for Tripoli and not Benghazi, actually. Not sure how true that is though.
I really don't think it does, amongst the GOP maybe the general electorate seems to not really care. There is more traction to Big Bird and Romney's feelings on PBS then that
The Libya issue won't move anyone.
I think Frank Luntz was right on a talk show this morning. Voters who can be swayed at this point are more concerned with appearance and confidence. That's why the debate had such a big effect. Romney came off as passionate while Obama came off looking disinterested.
I think Frank Luntz was right on a talk show this morning. Voters who can be swayed at this point are more concerned with appearance and confidence. That's why the debate had such a big effect. Romney came off as passionate while Obama came off looking disinterested.
Sigh. I apologize for not being clear enough- it is gaining traction as an issue for Obama to deal with. Not saying how effective it will be, not saying how fair it is.
Yes, because it would put Obama on his heels and he'd have to be defensive.
Again, I think Obama is stronger on this issue than Romney. Romney made a political statement out of a tragedy. He's a shithead. But they need a clear, clean answer.
maximum360
Member
Poligaf, home of the PD and Cheebs backpats.
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