VP debate.
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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.
- Thread starter Amir0x
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That's a +5 swing for Romney. Granted, the poll was a month ago. Pretty bad, but +1 Romney is certainly workable. And probably better than the +7 from Mason Dixon.
FL yes VA not so sure.
For comparison:
Code:
Rasmussen 10/11 47.0 51.0 Romney +4.0
American Research Group 10/11 46.0 49.0 Romney +3.0
Mason-Dixon 10/10 44.0 51.0 Romney +7.0
NBC/Marist 10/9 48.0 47.0 Obama +1.0
U. North Florida 10/9 49.0 45.0 Obama +4.0
Rasmussen 10/4 47.0 49.0 Romney +2.0
We Ask America 10/4 46.0 49.0 Romney +3.0
[B]PPP 9/23 50.0 46.0 Obama +4.0[/B]Bam Bam Baklava
Member
I wonder if anyone would still be talking about Libya if the election was over.
Its very doable.
It would get some discussion, it was a big event. I think the Administration would get a bit more breathing room on the issue, but not a whole lot.
littleworm
Member
The Florida numbers are not good, but they certainly aren't awful either.
Big Baybee
Member
Even if Obama destroys Romney in a debate, the media will still push it as a tie. The VP debate is a perfect example of that.
Particle Physicist
between a quark and a baryon
No joke, Cuban's are incredibly racist. I was surprised Obama won Florida first time around. The things I hear all the time are awful, especially when they don't realize I speak Spanish since I look white.
Cuban's are pretty happy with their immigration policy. It's also why it''s laughable to think that Rubio would attract Hispanics outside of Florida.
If Obama is re-elected, I fully expect the GOP to continue to hammer him with it. If (God forbid) Romney is elected, I expected it to quickly disappear from conversation.
ryutaro's mama
Member
It seem Republicans did really well in Early voting in 2008, but this election democrats are about even this time.
Aaron Strife
Banned
I prefer the optics of an Obama lead but +1 Romney is pretty insignificant. Certainly not a safe call for Romney.
littleworm
Member
Now we wait for NC.
Officerrob
Banned
Which will be Romney +3 or 4
They were tied in the last poll.
Aaron Strife
Banned
It's never been more than 3 points either way
Officerrob
Banned
Nope, they did VA last week (although they should be doing it every week)
Nope NC.
Wisconsin Senate Candidate's Son Says We "Have The Opportunity" To Send Obama Back To Kenya
http://www.buzzfeed.com/andrewkaczynski/wisconsin-gubernatorial-candidates-son-says-we-h
http://www.buzzfeed.com/andrewkaczynski/wisconsin-gubernatorial-candidates-son-says-we-h
If it stays within 1 point Obama's ground game might deliver the goods.
Only thing is, with states like FL, VA, or even OH... the state GOPers might really try something desperate if Obama wins by like 1 point or something. That's why I hope he can keep it at >4-5 in OH and >2 in FL on election night.
Only thing is, with states like FL, VA, or even OH... the state GOPers might really try something desperate if Obama wins by like 1 point or something. That's why I hope he can keep it at >4-5 in OH and >2 in FL on election night.
Yeah this is a bunch of crap. NC is gone. Poll VA pls
Aaron Strife
Banned
Point out a credible poll showing NC out of reach, because you keep saying this.
I actually feel pretty good about FL if Obama's down only by 1 after having his worst 2 weeks of the campaign. Add to the fact that Dems have significantly eaten away the GOP's lead in early voting and Obama's ground game. I see no reason why Obama can't eke out a close win for Florida.
Let's see. SurveyUSA showed Obama up by 2 from 9/29-10/1. The other two are Ras and Gravis with Mitt in the lead, but I know they aren't that great. If Bams was only up by 2 pre-debate I can't imagine that new polls would still reflect that but maybe it'll be a nice surprise.
No kidding.
Everything I say I am assuming it implies Obama acts like a man on Tuesday.
Umm ok? the ground game is very important.
So who are the sensible people I should be looking at on the FL ballot? I don't keep up with politics as much as I used to because I'd like to retain what little bit of sanity I have left. First time voting in FL too and I don't know much of anything about the people and Con. Amends up for vote. Feel free to PM me or just share in the thread please 
Edit: Obama/Biden is a given >_>
Edit: Obama/Biden is a given >_>
And so is being able to defend your record and explain why Romney's policies are bad in front of your opponent in front of millions of people.
If Obama shits the bed again, for the zillionth time, all bets are off. I'm assuming he really did practice his ass off this time (recent press indicates he has).
PhoenixDark
Banned
This election could be won or lost on Tuesday
Yes. Obama needs to bring his A-game Tuesday night, or life will get even more difficult. However, I still think ground game is very important. In a state like FL were the difference between losing and winning is 1 or 2 points, ground operation can be all the difference. Or in a state like Ohio where you must keep your early vote lead by stopping the opposition from running up the score on election day.
What now? His ground game is one of the main reasons why he won the election in 2008.
And Romney's is a lot better than McCain's.
This is the crux of the Romney surge nationwide. These people were never really comfortable with Obama and any of them that did vote for him in 2008 probably would have gone with McCain if not for Market Crash, Palin etc.
PS: I'm not even saying it's necessarily racism. Probably more cultural
PS2: 538 Updated. Slight uptick for Obama
This could be said about any day in any year about any election. Excellent analysis.
And being able to communicate with voters why he was the better choice. Remember? His charisma, platform, etc. All of that didn't show up for the first debate. Ground game alone will only do so much. It's a critical component of the Obama campaign, but not the only one.
And yeah, Romney has proven to be a much more formidable candidate than McCain.
And your ground game is limited somewhat by voter enthusiasm.
Yep,and its doing wonders right now.
Why ya gotta be so damn likable?
Unless Kerry is on the other end of that phone and they're doing over-the-phone debate prep it seems to me like he's wasting his time and looking to get run over again on Tuesday.
McCain had a ground game?
It's important, but it's not going to get him back into states where he's down 3-4%. Which is why he has to do his job on Tuesday.
Everyone--literally everyone-- has done their jobs so far. Clinton and Michelle at the DNC. Biden in the debate. He's got to do this!
It is a 3 second photo op. Calm down.
PhoenixDark
Banned
Why ya gotta be so damn likable?
I'll be bumping this post if Obama looks unprepared on Tuesday
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