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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.
- Thread starter Amir0x
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Hurricane F5 F5 F5
lol
OF COURSE YOU WOULDN'T
Yesss! Awesome news =D
cartoon_soldier
Member
Whoops read it as 3 pt lead down to 1, lol.
Heaven forbid you get excited!
I more or less agree, but it was more pronounced because he was sharing a stage with the President and he outmatched him. It'll subside somewhat, but we won't know for certain because the subsequent debates are confounding factors.
We spent most of the last week in a death spiral, you're allowed to get a little excited.
Officerrob
Banned
I find it's a nice counterbalance to all the bridge jumping that happens around here at the very mention of potential bad news.
ryutaro's mama
Member
Diablos is turning into PD like that pic of Bush that turns into Obama.
ryutaro's mama
Member
Meta bad news for Obama? Bad news for Obama.
Ok, I think my tourettes is done for the night.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Unemployment drops to 3% as a direct result of Obama policies, Romney concedes
Bad news for Obama
Perhaps a bit dramatic, sure.. but I tend to think that he'd have to be caught in bed with one of Sasha or Malia's classmates to lose this thing. We're not going to see a repeat of Debate #1, and now, near Mitt's Peak, the Electoral Map still looks scrumptious.
I'm confident in how this is going to turn out. If you're not, that's cool.
That's a drinking game the Romneys can play.
Clever.
Aaron Strife
Banned
I'm taking a shot of something disgusting for every state I called wrong in my prediction map. I'm hoping I only have to do this for North Carolina.
So true... unless Bams REALLY fucks up (which is certainly possible with another mediocre debate performance or late "October surprise") this is about as it good as it's getting for Rombot.
I mean Bams' current work in Ohio/Iowa and other early voting states and his overall ground game is gonna seal this thing, and it's only gonna be truly noticed after he wins it. And that's what I appreciate about this campaign, for the most part, they don't do shit strictly dictated by the shallow-thinking media, they do all the little things that matter in the end.
Aaron Strife
Banned
50-43 RVs on that ABC poll, btw.
I tend to agree.
My suspicion is that perhaps Florida and moreso Virginia will be too close to call immediately when the polls close, but Ohio will be the staggering blow. When the networks call Ohio for Obama (and I suspect that this will be shortly after the polls there close), I'm going to yell very loudly , "FINISH HIM!" at the TV.. then Iowa will arrive, and the deed will be done.
Cajun style!
Hot damn.. that's even nicer.
I recommend plastic bottle light rum.
Aaron Strife
Banned
If Obama's popular vote margin is +7 we'd have a damn good chance at winning back the House. I wouldn't be surprised if the actual turnout is between those two.
LV is what matters more tho
Aaron Strife
Banned
Maybe it's just a dailykoselections meme (they're usually far more level-headed than the main site), but RV polls are supposed to be more accurate in general elections than LV polls.
If Obama won by 7 and Democrats didn't win back the House (or even get close), blame it on gerrymandering or an intense level of ticket-splitting.Puddles said:
For reference, Clinton won by 9 points while Democrats only won the House ballot that year by 1 point, not enough to take back the House, so it's not unheard of. However, it's certainly possible Perot took votes overwhelmingly from Dole that year, unlike in 1992 where his support was more evenly divided.
House seems less fluid thanks to redistricting.
cartoon_soldier
Member
Only if LV model is underestimating Dem turnout by a lot. Nate has said somewhat that it is possible especially with the reports of early voting favoring Dems.
PhoenixDark
Banned
Good news for Obama
Aaron Strife
Banned
Fucking hell, first sign of the apocalypse.
I wonder why Nate didn't set up a House model this year. Too much on his plate perhaps. It'd be nice to see where we're at, but maybe it's best to assume R control so it'll be a surprise if we get Speaker Pelosi again.
Does it really though? You'd think so, but I'd like to see some data backing that up.
If we win the White House, we win the Supreme Court too. That is priority number one.
Holy shit, we're all gonna die. 1,000 years of darkness incoming!
Aaron Strife
Banned
Mm, let's win it in 2016 too. Just to be safe
I don't know what ABC's methodology is but some likely voter screens are weird as hell. It'll be like "On a scale of 1 to 10 how likely are you to vote" and only 9s and 10s will be counted. PPP's solution is best, they just ask straight up at the beginning of the poll "Are you likely to vote this year?" And everyone who says yes gets polled.Diablos said:Well LV implies that it's who is likely to get off their ass and vote. Democrats far outnumber Republicans in voter reg but there's a reason why Dems don't win every single Presidential election
Doing an RV poll and then reporting the LV subset as a separate result is kind of odd too, just because I feel like at this point if you're willing to answer a poll about the presidential election and then not vote.
Well LV implies that it's who is likely to get off their ass and vote. Democrats far outnumber Republicans in voter reg but there's a reason why Dems don't win every single Presidential election
Oh for sure, no doubt... and with Hil-Dawg looking like a good bet for 2016 and beyond (and yes, I know it's sort of futile to look that far out) combined with the growing demographic advantages for dems and the recovering economy, you really feel like we're on the cusp of something here. And a Romney win would just erase all that and the long-term damage to the court could be devastating.
Frank the Great
Banned
obama should start runnings ads promising that if he is reelected, he will support policies that limit the amount of political advertising. people must be getting sick of this shit.
not really. only ginsburg is likely to retire, which would maintain the status quo. scalia is old but there is no way he is resigning or dying while a democrat is president. i doubt kennedy would resign as well.
so i don't see a way obama gets to appoint a fifth liberal on the court. would be amazing though.
not really. only ginsburg is likely to retire, which would maintain the status quo. scalia is old but there is no way he is resigning or dying while a democrat is president. i doubt kennedy would resign as well.
so i don't see a way obama gets to appoint a fifth liberal on the court. would be amazing though.
Hm, good catch.
Yeah. Previously, I said it was a toss up. But Democrats are probably modest underdogs, although it projects to be close either way. Neither party has maintained a lead in the House polls.
Paul Constant says Stop Fucking Panicking, Liberals:
http://www.thestranger.com/seattle/stop-fucking-panicking-liberals/Content?oid=14986038
http://www.thestranger.com/seattle/stop-fucking-panicking-liberals/Content?oid=14986038
2016 is a given, Hilary got that shit on lockdown.
Also, it's kinda creeping me out that you guys are talking in first person about the DNC.
Well LV implies that it's who is likely to get off their ass and vote. Democrats far outnumber Republicans in voter reg but there's a reason why Dems don't win every single Presidential election
It implies that, sure. But then without a strong historical correlation coefficient between LV polls and actual voter turnout, you're just making assumptions based on the accuracy of the model being used. I am just asking if there has been a statistical study on the accuracy of LV predictions, because I haven't seen it myself. So if anyone has a link maybe? I'd do some research myself but I'm at work right now and can only do so much on this computer.
I think there's a decent chance that Obama might get to replace them both.
Aaron Strife
Banned
I'll probably be a politician in some capacity by that time, whether it's just a gag run for house or something more serious. I feel comfortable using the first person to describe the democratic party
If Obama continues to improve and this isn't a "dead cat bounce" as Nate mentioned, then he's got this. I don't see how it could possibly get worse for Obama than these past couple weeks, and even then he's managed to keep his head just above the water where it matters. Since he's bound to turn things back around at least a little bit with an undeniably stronger second debate and the media's inevitable light "comeback" narrative, it would probably take a video of Obama freeing Osama Bin Laden with Rev. Wright and Bill Ayers at his side to make him lose this.
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