Why is the Republican sampling so low?
edit: While I'd love for Dems to get the House back I think best case scenario here is Obama re-elected and 50+ Dem Senate seats held.
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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.
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edit: While I'd love for Dems to get the House back I think best case scenario here is Obama re-elected and 50+ Dem Senate seats held.
This is beautiful and that paragraph on Sullivan is fucking spot-on. What an embarrassment that was.
I believe this is our worst case scenario.
If Harry Reid could survive in Nevada in 2010, Barack Obama should be able to survive in 2012.
If Harry Reid could survive in Nevada in 2010, Barack Obama should be able to survive in 2012.
Harry's got connections though. Tons. Even Republicans in the state love him.
Also Sharron Angle was batshit insane, like she could go up against Bachmann for craziest person in DC had she won.
Oh Jesus. Now I'm starting to fucking worry.
This shit right here. This shit right here for this entire thread, every "liberal" talking head on tv or online blogs, and your mothers, fathers, sisters, brothers, and your fucking mailman too.
Black Mamba
Member
LV models this far out can be poor because a lot of people decide to vote the final week.
Heck, there's a bunch of voters that vote based on state stuff which they don't know about until a week or two before.
This is why I think LV models this early tend to underrate Democrat turnout in a Presidential election (opposed to mid-term). At least the ones that are very strict.
Obama's ground game is very good at turning RV into LV from my understanding, as well.
Heck, there's a bunch of voters that vote based on state stuff which they don't know about until a week or two before.
This is why I think LV models this early tend to underrate Democrat turnout in a Presidential election (opposed to mid-term). At least the ones that are very strict.
Obama's ground game is very good at turning RV into LV from my understanding, as well.
Scalia is fat as fuck, if you prodded him with a needle he'd probably burst.
Black Mamba
Member
So, is Wisconsin going to be polled any time soon?
Right, which is why I think putting emphasis on LV numbers right now is baseless. But again, if anyone knows of any studies on LV polls in general, I would love to read them.
Black Mamba
Member
NBC, Pew, and CNN need new general election polls, too. I want to wash the stink off RCP's general average which is being heavily weighted by Pew's Romney +4 and the fact that they don't have new polls into the system.
RCP also igones Reuters and RAND so it would be nice to see that number come down and back to Obama and demoralize Repubs again.
Probably won't be any til after the 2nd debate.
RCP also igones Reuters and RAND so it would be nice to see that number come down and back to Obama and demoralize Repubs again.
Probably won't be any til after the 2nd debate.
It seems like after every debate, we see a flurry of polls with right-leaning house effects or with fly-by-night/"who-the-hell-are-these-guys?" reputations. I don't remember this being an occurrance from any other election. And while I don't think it's a conspiracy (that's silly), I don't doubt that they've had a good effect in making Democrats nervous while also influencing aggregate websites..
An Obama second term and a resurgent economy (which unfortunately isn't assured if Republicans retain the House) would pretty much guarantee Hillary in the White House in 2016. I don't think Scalia and Kennedy will stay on for 12 more years. They're only a few years younger than Ginsburg.
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
Gore lost after 8 years of prosperous Clinton. Anything can happen and usually does.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Yeah, Scalia will stick around for a second Obama term (Kennedy might not), but he probably won't hold out much longer than that.
You have a point, though Gore also made a point of distancing himself from Clinton after the Lewinsky scandal. Hillary assuredly wouldn't do that to Obama.AlteredBeast said:
RockTurtle
Member
Why was Ginsburg nominated in the first place? She was kinda old to begin with. Slick Willy wasn't thinking that one through.
Regarding the SCOTUS justices though... idiots like Thomas have to go, even more than Scalia. Not that I'd mind if Scalia stepped down of course. But Thomas is such a dummy. He has no place on the court. Of all the right-leaning justices he deserves to go more than anyone else. It's amazing he was able to get confirmed in the first place given his history
Regarding the SCOTUS justices though... idiots like Thomas have to go, even more than Scalia. Not that I'd mind if Scalia stepped down of course. But Thomas is such a dummy. He has no place on the court. Of all the right-leaning justices he deserves to go more than anyone else. It's amazing he was able to get confirmed in the first place given his history
speculawyer
Member
Ooooh ice burn!
Yep. GOP Barack Obama right there.Dude, you forgot about this dude:
Dude, you forgot about this dude:
Hillary has learned from facing the real thing.
Man John Paul Stevens is still alive? Holy shit he's 92. He was born in 1920. He's seen some shit.
I think nominating the youngest suitable justice you can find is kind've a recent thing.
Aaron Strife
Banned
I don't know. Obama wouldn't have the same appeal to minorities and college kids if he was as conservative as Rubio. He's a fresh face but that doesn't mean he'd have the same appeal as Obama. That's sort of like saying Herman Cain will get 1/3rd of the black vote.
I've heard it argued that between challengers, incumbents and successors, the successor has the most difficulty in approaching the presidency.
True. The good thing for Dems is that the GOP is now racing the demographic clock. When the Democratic candidate automatically begins with 245+ electoral votes, the GOP's candidate must be absolutely Reaganesque to have a chance, and the country/economy must be in the shitter.
Until they address their long-term structural problem with minority voters, they'll need everything to line-up just right so that they can run the electoral table.
As much as folks complain about the Electoral College, it very well could be incredibly helpful to us over the next few decades.
Red Blaster
Member
anyone have a link to their previous poll? i'd like to compare the d/r/i breakdowns in that.
He sure knows how to speak, just like Obama. And he's a bit more down to earth when explaining shit, although not quite as intelligent/articulate imo, but GOPers don't care about that anyway lol
If Clinton hadn't gotten a blowjob from Lewinsky, we most likely would have seen Gore in the White House.
Black Mamba
Member
I think the economy will come back no matter if the Repubs are there. They have slowed it down for some time, but consumers have consolidated a lot of their debt. In the next 4 years, things have to turn around from the sheer will of market forces.
With Housing finally moving, employment will eventually get less linear, etc it's got to move.* That's why analysts predict 10-12 million new jobs the next 4 years. Repubs can make some kind of dent if they so choose, I suppose, but not enough.
I also think if Repubs do do this, they're just digging their grave faster.
*Of course Iran or a Eurocrisis can fuck this all up but that won't have anything to do with Repubs.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Black Mamba
Member
http://www.langerresearch.com/uploads/1141a1IntotheDebates.pdf
Obama was +2 before the debate according to ABC.
+5 Registered.
edit: Beaten like PD had he taken my bet.
well, that's still pretty good. i wonder why there'd be more republicans self-identifying as independents, though.
too embarrassed to be associated with the far-right probably. or dey trollin
Same reason Bill O'Reilly calls himself an Independent.
ryutaro's mama
Member
Do you know how fucking pissed Obama's detractors would be if
1) the map looked like that
and
2) Romney won the popular vote
They would cry foul so loud.
there would be legal action taken.
i.e. 2000
Aaron Strife
Banned
Independent registration has risen in the past couple of years on the backs of Republicans switching. Or so I hear.
Not if Obama won those states by margins outside of recount territory. If that were the case their only option would be to sit there with their thumb up their ass and bitch. Good news is maybe more states would enact this.Diablos said:
Black Mamba
Member
I can't speak on behalf of everywhere, but California is pretty moderate when it comes to the Republicanshere and I know a bunch of them left the party because they can't stand the base and what is represented on Fox News.
I imagine this is happening all over the more liberal states in America. I really don't know why anyone would be a Republican at this point unless they believed most of the platform since it's so far right.
It also doesn't help that for years they complained about "tax and spend liberals" and it turned out W Bush was the biggest "tax and spend liberal" we've had.
At least O'Reilly does break convention to an extent.
3) Obama makes a series statements of how he has earned "political capital" and intends to spend it
speculawyer
Member
There is no way Scalia will retire. He'll go like Renquist, he'll die on the court. In fact I think if Scalia died he'd still refuse to give up the bench.
Kennedy is the same age as Scalia . . . replacing him could slightly tilt the court a bit.
If Obama lost, would Ginsburg retire immediately just to be replaced by him? Have they ever done that? It would be a bit unseemly.
Black Mamba:
"Doing nothing" isn't really an option, but plays into the Republicans hands in sabotaging Obama's second term immediately.
The economy was slowing down when Clinton left office.
"Doing nothing" isn't really an option, but plays into the Republicans hands in sabotaging Obama's second term immediately.
The economy was slowing down when Clinton left office.
Aaron Strife
Banned
GOP would filibuster the ever-loving shit out of any Obama nominee in that instance.
(finally got to a computer where I could see the map)
I think we have Iowa in hand almost as much as Ohio as well, but I'm eagerly awaiting some fresh polling to confirm this.
As long as there's a good 10 or 20EV buffer against GOP shenanigans, I'd feel pretty good about things. If there were a popular/electoral split, I could see some truly desperate GOP governors or secretaries of state refusing to certify election results, with bullshit talk of violence, revolution, court battles, etc etc. I wouldn't put anything past 'em.
Semi-related aside: I'm almost convinced that much of Romney's rise has come from larger margins in already-red states. If you mention Obama out in rural areas down here for instance, people begin snarling and foaming at the mouth like rabid animals, and Romney endeared himself to these folks by fighting Obama in that first debate. Before, they were kinda lukewarm to Romney.
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