PhoenixDark
Banned
He spent all his money to win the primary; Baldwin was on air for weeks hammering away at him while he tried to raise cash
PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.
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He spent all his money to win the primary; Baldwin was on air for weeks hammering away at him while he tried to raise cash
He ran out of money in the primaries, so Baldwin and the Dems got a nice bit of time to attack him with no counter-punch. They painted him as a lobbyist, and that charge was partially already started during the brutal primary he faced.
speculawyer
Member
Wall Street Journal: Drill, baby, Drill failed.
So all those people that told you that expanding drilling would not really cut prices were right. Imagine that. Maybe you should listen to those people? Nah, stick with the ideology instead of the people doing real analysis.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390443624204578056563506705412.html
So all those people that told you that expanding drilling would not really cut prices were right. Imagine that. Maybe you should listen to those people? Nah, stick with the ideology instead of the people doing real analysis.
I am, for one, absolutely shocked.
Maybe we just need to drill even more.
It's kind of like taxes. Sure, it didn't work last time, but just maybe they're not quite low enough. If we lower them this time, surely it'll work!
empty vessel
Member
The whole idea was based on the premise that the US oil industry is or should be nationalized. And that it was rank and file Republicans pushing this line was hilarious. (Elite Republicans understood that pushing increased drilling was always for the oil industry, not the American gas consumer.)
speculawyer
Member
He's old and he's been living in the bubble.
To some degree, I think Fox News may have become destructive to the GOP. They live in this echo chamber and when they go out into the broader world they don't understand it when people don't just all agree with their right-wing talking points.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Don't forget the liberal media gave that Madison lesbian an assist.
PhoenixDark
Banned
I don't have Romney's schedule for this summer, but he spent a lot of time there through July and early August before his campaign (and PACs) pulled out
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/08/27/1124735/-Republicans-give-up-on-Pennsylvania
Initially PA looked like it might be competitive due to some polls showing a tied race (including PPP) alongside other polls showing a larger Obama margin. Eventually the doors blew open though
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep.../pennsylvania_romney_vs_obama-1891.html#polls
I remember Hitokage making this point 4 years ago (holy crap, time flies). The assumption that the drilled oil will somehow stand apart from the world market is obvious after it's pointed out, but it's something people never seem to realize on their own.
Even Hitokage had to hear it on NPR. It's a point that should be raised way more often.
The Technomancer
card-carrying scientician
You don't say...
I don't think I heard it from NPR. I was just aware that the oil market is global.
At least, that's how I remember it. I may be wrong!
jamesinclair
Banned
Sounds like the liberal media is at it again. Whats their agenda? The far left envirowackos just want to ruin our economy.
Haha.....son of a wealthy governor
speculawyer
Member
Actually, there is a law that you cannot export crude drilled from US lands. (I'm not sure if it only applies to Federal lands or not.) That is a pretty commie-law! I can't imagine that passing today. But you can get around it by applying for a waiver.
FUNKNOWN iXi
Member
I hear you, I tried to get in as well. You'd think it would be easier to go to a debate in your backyard...
If only Lincoln was running.
I'm starting to not like Jennifer Rubin very much:
http://thinkprogress.org/election/2...against-hillary-clinton-on-twitter/?mobile=nc
http://thinkprogress.org/election/2...against-hillary-clinton-on-twitter/?mobile=nc
Starting? Vile doesn't even come close to describing her.
LoftyTheMetroid
Member
Just wanted to pop in and say, as a Missouri resident, I just had the opportunity this afternoon to cast my absentee ballot and vote against Todd Akin. Feels good, man.
(Back to lurking...)
(Back to lurking...)
Fortunately, I do. And I noticed Romney made only one appearance in June and one in July, and he made no appearances in August. So, not only has he not invested in field offices nor spent on advertising, he's hardly appeared in the state. It's evident they surrendered the state early.
speculawyer
Member
Thank you!
I was just getting pissed off the other day about how he said evolution was not a matter of science.
He sits on a science committee FFS! Ugh.
ErasureAcer
Banned
Insiders see Obama winning @ 82% plus some other interesting questions/answers.
I missed this when it got linked earlier. Fun tidbits:
* Hillary is 45, 75%.
* Despite the fact that the insiders think Huntsman would've been the best nominee, they think he has basically no chance in 2016.
* Karl Rove is considered the smartest person in politics even though Crossroads has utterly failed at its core mission of winning Congressional races for the GOP. (At least in the Senate.)
* A majority of Washington insiders think all the lying is terrible, disgusting evidence that Washington is irreparably corrupt. So why are you still inside?
Black Mamba
Member
Gallup poll shows Romney +2040294 on Obama.
edit: Has the TV news cycle picked up on the Ryan fake charity stuff? Because that would be nice.
cartoon_soldier
Member
Don't hold your breath
metalslimer
Member
haha, now that the VP debates are over the media will pretend like Ryan doesn't even exist and if they do mention it it will be in some short passing detail.
She's the chick from White Men Can't Jump? Looks very milfy, I must say...
Awesome vid too.
Anyone wish to share their final predictions on the town hall debate?
My prediction: The media will declare it a draw, no matter how well Obama does. As long as Obama doesn't crap the bed again, he should come out of the debate no worse (or maybe slightly better) than he went in.
My prediction: The media will declare it a draw, no matter how well Obama does. As long as Obama doesn't crap the bed again, he should come out of the debate no worse (or maybe slightly better) than he went in.
anonymous_abc
Member
when is the next debate exactly?
would love to watch it live but not at 3 in the morning x)
would love to watch it live but not at 3 in the morning x)
ErasureAcer
Banned
17 hours from your post I'm quoting.
Black Mamba
Member
Obama gains in RAND again, another +.5!
Obama is up over 5 in RAND now.
49.66 - 44.51
Romney has dropped considerably more than Obama has gone up. He must be polling around 44. This is looking like a near 50-44 race on RAND the past few days (I had Obama a bit higher before but now it seems it's more Romney falling).
Fucking hell, move a bit for Obama Gallup!
Also: Reagan's Former Budget Director Writes a Scathing Op-Ed dismissing Romney's Claim To Being A Businessman. I suggest everyone read it.
Obama is up over 5 in RAND now.
49.66 - 44.51
Romney has dropped considerably more than Obama has gone up. He must be polling around 44. This is looking like a near 50-44 race on RAND the past few days (I had Obama a bit higher before but now it seems it's more Romney falling).
Fucking hell, move a bit for Obama Gallup!
Also: Reagan's Former Budget Director Writes a Scathing Op-Ed dismissing Romney's Claim To Being A Businessman. I suggest everyone read it.
anonymous_abc
Member
3 in the morning again x(
oh well I will learn to live with the morning roundup...
i always had this as a win for obama. i think the expectations game is on him maybe screwing up again, but obama is a much more personable guy than romney, and the style and subject matter play to his favor. he'll probably gain back a little what he lost after the debate. i don't see it swinging wildly back into his favor though.
only wildcard is if the moderator rolls over and dies like jim lehrer did. may he rest in peace.
Officerrob
Banned
Daily tracking polls are about the same with Romney at a one or two point advantage. A couple other national polls have come out with Obama in the lead, so nationally, it's basically tied.
As far as swing states, there has been anywhere from a 2-4 point swing in most of them towards Romney. Colorado and Virginia are basically tied. Romney has a small lead in North Carolina and Florida. Obama has small leads in Wisconsin, Nevada, and New Hampshire as well as a larger lead in Ohio. Iowa hasn't really been polled in a while. Michigan and Pennsylvania continue to be fools gold to Republicans and will go into the Obama column on election night.
In short, the popular vote would be very close right now, but Obama still holds an edge in the electoral college map.
Even if it is not my country I will try to watch the final debate at 2 am. So what are the real stake? I mean the first debate seemed to have given to romney more points in the polls, will it be the same case here if he win again? And what is the real influence of these debates and polls in United States?
Thanks, officerob
As for the relationship between (October) polls and election results, I'm thinking there must be some kind of research paper that uses statistics to compare the two throughout various elections. Would be interesting to see.
It seems to depend a lot on what narrative the media creates based on the debates. And evidently there's a good chunk of Americans that place great importance on that, while not bothering to look under the surface. Not sure if tomorrow would have as great an affect (eg, if Obama "wins", I can't see there being a similar swing in the other direction).
As for the relationship between (October) polls and election results, I'm thinking there must be some kind of research paper that uses statistics to compare the two throughout various elections. Would be interesting to see.
This is a good post by Nate Silver on September pools and election results: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/24/the-statistical-state-of-the-presidential-race/
Races tend to favor the incumbent if he leads at this point. Bad news for Obama.
I'm probably getting up at 3 am to watch the debate as well. Argh.
cartoon_soldier
Member
Did they interview PD for this?
http://www.buzzfeed.com/rosiegray/hillary-clintons-2008-dead-enders-fight-on
http://www.buzzfeed.com/rosiegray/hillary-clintons-2008-dead-enders-fight-on
Obama bounces back in second debate, but is it enough? Tonight on CNN.
That's how I'm guessing it'll go. Obama will be competent but not decisively so, and even if he outperforms Romney the media will be talking about whatever national poll is closest for the next couple weeks until they can't fool anybody with the horse race stuff anymore (election day).
That's how I'm guessing it'll go. Obama will be competent but not decisively so, and even if he outperforms Romney the media will be talking about whatever national poll is closest for the next couple weeks until they can't fool anybody with the horse race stuff anymore (election day).
The very idea that there could be a President Romney. How the fuck.
Still seems like the electoral college would go to Obama.
The Chosen One
Member
Now that PoliGAF has slowed down, chew on this idea to reform our national election:
We should alternate between the electoral college and the popular vote every 4 years. This way rural swing states and major population centers receive some presidential pandering at least once every 8 years. Also if a President wants to successfully run for two terms, they have to be capable of appealing to high populace red/blue states and the typical purple swing states. There's easily enough money in politics for candidates to compete for the popular vote.
This would help more people get involved and have their vote actually count for something. For people in California, Texas, and New York, it might actually be worthwhile participating in a presidential election.
We should alternate between the electoral college and the popular vote every 4 years. This way rural swing states and major population centers receive some presidential pandering at least once every 8 years. Also if a President wants to successfully run for two terms, they have to be capable of appealing to high populace red/blue states and the typical purple swing states. There's easily enough money in politics for candidates to compete for the popular vote.
This would help more people get involved and have their vote actually count for something. For people in California, Texas, and New York, it might actually be worthwhile participating in a presidential election.
cartoon_soldier
Member
Quinnipac PA poll:
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institute...te/pennsylvania/release-detail?ReleaseID=1807
O 50 - R 46
Senate is too close too, Casey 48 - R 45
Demo Breakdown is D+8, with big jump in independents compared to 2008. But, the spread is similar to 2008.
Only part that is not similar to 2008 is African Americans are at 9% compared to 13% in 2008 exits.
O still leading, but terrible swing, +12 to +4. More worried about that Senate poll though.
Also, Suffolk did NH poll, 47% each
http://www.boston.com/politicalinte...ording-poll/DDAwoCIv1TGXp2PLOD6SFL/story.html
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institute...te/pennsylvania/release-detail?ReleaseID=1807
O 50 - R 46
Senate is too close too, Casey 48 - R 45
Demo Breakdown is D+8, with big jump in independents compared to 2008. But, the spread is similar to 2008.
Only part that is not similar to 2008 is African Americans are at 9% compared to 13% in 2008 exits.
O still leading, but terrible swing, +12 to +4. More worried about that Senate poll though.
Also, Suffolk did NH poll, 47% each
http://www.boston.com/politicalinte...ording-poll/DDAwoCIv1TGXp2PLOD6SFL/story.html
The Librarian
Banned
Don't be.
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