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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.

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Particle Physicist

between a quark and a baryon

Effect

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I think I'm going to be going back and forth between the debate, a movie, and some Guild Wars 2. I'm more concerned about what is said afterward though.

Obama just needs to start strong right out of the gate. If he calls Romney out on his BS in the first question then I'll watch the entire thing. If he says he agrees with Romney on anything I'm likely out. Don't give Romney any credibility. That was one of the big mistakes he made in the last debate. To hell with being nice. Be nice to the moderator, the questioner, and the camera (dear god remember the cameras). View Romney as the lying filth he is.
 
Mike Barnacle made a good point about this on Morning Joe this morning when talking about if Ohio was in play. He said 3½ weeks ago if you polled people around Columbus and Cleveland and asked them what they knew about Mitt Romney, they would probably say "a rich guy." If you polled those same areas today, the answer is "a guy who could be President." That is HUGE shift, even if it's not yet to the point of him necessarily winning that State and brings much more uncertainty into figuring out who undecideds will pull the lever for.

no, if you polled people around columbus and cleveland both times they'd say "that guy who said let detroit go bankrupt" and "that guy i'm not voting for because he said let detroit go bankrupt"
 
Obama just needs to start strong right out of the gate. If he calls Romney out on his BS in the first question then I'll watch the entire thing. If he says he agrees with Romney on anything I'm likely out. Don't give Romney any credibility. That was one of the big mistakes he made in the last debate. To hell with being nice. Be nice to the moderator, the questioner, and the camera (dear god remember the cameras). View Romney as the lying filth he is.

yep. "well, mitt and i largely have the same position on medicare..."

turn tv off, start liquidating assets, and find a new destination to live!
 
That is because in those debates, the winners got to choose who went first. Did you watch the debates? They said in the beginning who won the coin tosses.

[EDIT]

Wait, is this true: http://nation.foxnews.com/mitt-romney/2012/10/15/romney-smokes-obama-pre-debate-coin-tosses

They coin toss everything? lol

Honestly, I had no idea. They should bring them to the center of the stage NFL style and have them call it live.

no, if you polled people around columbus and cleveland both times they'd say "that guy who said let detroit go bankrupt" and "that guy i'm not voting for because he said let detroit go bankrupt"

I do agree that it is a wedge issue, I do wonder what Obama would say if Romney asked him to explain what the difference in Romney's plan and Obama's plan was.
 

Zzoram

Member
People don't like Obama but like Obamacare?

People don't even know what Obamacare is. Romney says it's a government takeover of health care. Palin says it has death panels to kill grandma. That's all people know. Obama and the Democrats have HORRIBLE messaging and can't explain shit. Republicans always set the tone and define everything Obama does in their own terms and echo chamber it until it sticks because the GOP has strict party discipline and coordination.
 

Downhome

Member
I think this is pretty interesting, something I rarely think about but it should be obvious to me...

Poll: Romney Has Large Lead In Rural Swing Counties

http://www.npr.org/2012/10/16/162979856/poll-romney-near-landslide-in-rural-swing-counties

As Mitt Romney and President Obama get ready for their second debate, a new bipartisan survey shows a surge for Romney in a key voter group following their first debate Oct. 3.

The random cellphone and land line poll of 600 likely rural voters in nine battleground states Oct. 9-11 has Romney at 59 percent among the survey's respondents. Obama's support is now down to 37 percent among rural battleground voters, a plunge of 10 points from the actual rural vote in those states four years ago.

"What Republican candidates need to do is to rack up big margins in rural areas in order to offset smaller [Republican] margins in urban and suburban areas," says Dan Judy of North Star Opinion Research, the Republican polling firm that participated in the survey.

"Mitt Romney really needs to be at 60 percent or above in [rural] areas to offset some of those [urban and suburban] margins," Judy adds. The new survey shows "he has surged into a huge lead, and I think it is fair to say that his increased lead among rural voters is what is helping him in these swing states overall."

The nine battleground states of Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin have a collective rural population of 13.6 million, according to the Census Bureau.
 

Downhome

Member
With how divided we are growing as a country, I wonder if we'll ever again see such landslide victories as Regan saw the two times he was elected. I wonder what that would take at this point.
 

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
With how divided we are growing as a country, I wonder if we'll ever again see such landslide victories as Regan saw the two times he was elected. I wonder what that would take at this point.

I think Obama's 2008 victory is as big as we will see for a long time.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
weren't there 1 or 2 polls directly after the last debate that showed a tie? then the next day it was 70/30 romney?
I don't remember this. The snap polls had Romney pretty decisively ahead.

I'm not gonna get on the media this time if Obama repeats what he did last time. Hopefully not. eat your wheaties!
 
I'm not watching the debate. I'll listen to whatever the post-debate commentary is. Clearly what actually happens at the debate doesn't matter. The only thing that does matter is how the media interprets it.

You may as well punch yourself in the face now and get it over with.

I'm going to purposely try to avoid CNN post debate discussion so I'm not tempted to throw anything at my television.
 

Jackson50

Member
With how divided we are growing as a country, I wonder if we'll ever again see such landslide victories as Regan saw the two times he was elected. I wonder what that would take at this point.
If you want a rough estimate, consider America's previous periods of polarization. There were a few landslides, but most of the elections were close and divisive. So, it is possible provided the right circumstances, although we're unlikely to experience the recurring large margins of the mid-20th Century. The economy would be the most influential factor in producing a landslide.
 

Downhome

Member
For a moment, assume Romney wins. Yes, I know, but still, just for a second. What do you think would be his best shot at a victory? Would the map look something like this?

(277 to 261)

wf9W3.jpg
 

Leunam

Member
We just got the news today that our health insurance rates are going up. Isn't the idea that once there is an influx of insured because of the mandate the rates should decrease? And doesn't the majority of the ACA go into effect in 2014?
 

HylianTom

Banned
Haha.. Nate now has Romney's chance of winning popular but losing electoral up to 4%.

There's still plenty of time for the state polling and national polling to line-up, but I do wonder if we'll get to see it cleanly happen this time. :)
 

Forever

Banned
Iowa was the state that got Obama started back in 2008, they love him there and it's next door to his home state. I'd be shocked if he lost it.
 

pigeon

Banned
For a moment, assume Romney wins. Yes, I know, but still, just for a second. What do you think would be his best shot at a victory? Would the map look something like this?

(277 to 261)

wf9W3.jpg

I don't really see a Penn flip as more likely than Ohio. PA moved more after the debate and is still, by poll consensus, bluer than Ohio. Romney's winning strategy involves winning OH, that's why he's there. Possibly WI also.
 

Downhome

Member
I wonder what the world would be like if it was tied and it ended up being Obama/Ryan.

In wacky world, if it did end up a tie I almost imagine it would be better to have Romney/Biden since I could see them working far better together.

At this point I'm rambling. Bring on the debate already.
 

Tim-E

Member
For a moment, assume Romney wins. Yes, I know, but still, just for a second. What do you think would be his best shot at a victory? Would the map look something like this?

(277 to 261)

PA is absolutely not going to flip. It's republican fool's gold.

Wisconsin isn't flipping, either.
 
This election is over if Obama loses this debate convincingly. It's starting to become clear that Obama turned off a lot of white people at the first debate, and demoralized his base. Seeing today's ppp poll...wow.
 

HylianTom

Banned
PA is absolutely not going to flip. It's republican fool's gold.

Wisconsin isn't flipping, either.
Pretty much. Obama's just playing run-out-the-clock with Ohio and Iowa/Nevada at this point. Anything else - CO, VA, NC,FL, NH, etc - is just gravy.
 
if Iowa, Nevada, Virginia, Colorado, Florida go red, then we risk a tie scenario LOLOLOL

But I don't think Nevada will go red, the underestimated Latino vote will give a couple of % points up to Obama in that state that is not visible in the current polls
 
Another Obama "green energy" company goes belly-up:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...a123-systems-files-bankruptcy.html?cmpid=yhoo

Have there been any successes that the government gave money to, or was Romney right in his "You don't just pick the winners and losers, you pick the losers" comment? Looking for some positives here.


Perfect nickname, too!

Romney is going to win another debate isn't he.

Barring a big gaffe, this format doesn't lend itself to a clear winner. Romney probably just wants to hold serve and then try to hammer Obama on Libya in the foreign policy debate. Anything even close to a "win" for Romney tonight would be huge for him.
 
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