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[Brinbe]

lol... seriously, PA is safe.

 

[Loudninja]

Focus on states that actually are in play.

 

[The Librarian]

Now that PoliGAF has slowed down, chew on this idea to reform our national election:

We should alternate between the electoral college and the popular vote every 4 years. This way rural swing states and major population centers receive some presidential pandering at least once every 8 years. Also if a President wants to successfully run for two terms, they have to be capable of appealing to high populace red/blue states and the typical purple swing states. There's easily enough money in politics for candidates to compete for the popular vote.

This would help more people get involved and have their vote actually count for something. For people in California, Texas, and New York, it might actually be worthwhile participating in a presidential election.

It'd just be easier to move to the popular vote.

 

[The Chosen One]

It'd just be easier to move to the popular vote.

Yeah but then the candidates would never step foot in fly-over country ever again.

 

[The Librarian]

Yeah but then the candidates would never step foot in fly-over country ever again.

Why do you say that? Why would candidates just campaign in urban areas? There aren't enough people in major cities, and there's no point campaigning in them because cities are Democratic strongholds. There's no point campaigning in those places.

 

[Ecotic]

Yeah but then the candidates would never step foot in fly-over country ever again.

Visitng small cities would make people in every small city in America feel like their candidate identifies with them. "He's visiting people like me, listening to concerns I would have."

A popular vote election would be such a radically transformed race in America. Both campaigns would need huge turnout in every corner of America to get the margin. Turnout would probably be much higher nationwide as Democrats in cities like Atlanta and Los Angeles, and Republicans in seemingly 'empty' Wyoming would suddenly have a vote that matters.

 

[Zabka]

The media is loving the USA Today / Gallup battleground states poll.

 

[Loudninja]

The media is loving the USA Today / Gallup battleground states poll.

Of course they are.

 

[Jadedx]

Why the fuck are women starting to flock to Mitt Romney? I swear this country is full of idiots.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Why the fuck are women starting to flock to Mitt Romney? I swear this country is full of idiots.

According to Stan Greenberg's focus group of unmarried Women, at the debate Obama failed to articulate any vision for the economy while Romney did (lied whatever) and unmarried Women as a result had some movement towards him.

 

[RDreamer]

Why the fuck are women starting to flock to Mitt Romney? I swear this country is full of idiots.

We in this country have the attention span of gnats. The second you stop telling us the horrible shit one politician believes or will do to you, you tend to forget.

 

[gkryhewy]

Why the fuck are women starting to flock to Mitt Romney? I swear this country is full of idiots.

According to every other poll, they aren't. Tonight's debate will control the narrative tomorrow anyway: it's put up or shut up time.

 

[Measley]

I'm not watching the debate. I'll listen to whatever the post-debate commentary is. Clearly what actually happens at the debate doesn't matter. The only thing that does matter is how the media interprets it.

 

[Y2Kev]

I'm not watching the debate. I'll listen to whatever the post-debate commentary is. Clearly what actually happens at the debate doesn't matter. The only thing that does matter is how the media interprets it.

You don't want to panic manically for two hours? I do!

 

[Loudninja]

I'm not watching the debate. I'll listen to whatever the post-debate commentary is. Clearly what actually happens at the debate doesn't matter. The only thing that does matter is how the media interprets it.

You know damn well how they are going to interpret it.

 

[TheHeretic]

I'm not watching the debate. I'll listen to whatever the post-debate commentary is. Clearly what actually happens at the debate doesn't matter. The only thing that does matter is how the media interprets it.

Except there's no evidence of this. People moved to Romney because he beat the president, and over 70 million people watched it. Of course it's going to have an impact. Assuming the media is running it all is just your spin on it.

 

[Chumly]

Lol NBC's lead in story was about how Ryan's family washed clean dishes lol..... Who thought that was a good idea?

 

[thefro]

Robert Gibbs said on Morning Joe a bit ago that "I think you're going to see an exceptionally strong debate performance from the president tonight." , "he may be skinny but he's tough", and "nobody ever made money betting against the President in an election".

Gauntlet thrown down

 

[codhand]

Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos & SEIU. 10/12-14. Likely voters. MoE ±2.5% (10/4-7 results)
The candidates for President are Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. If the election was today, who would you vote for?

Obama 46 (47)
Romney 50 (49)
At a time when other polls are moving back in the president's direction, our own weekly poll by Public Policy Polling saw the opposite—a two-point Romney gain. Per day:

Friday (38%) Obama 47, Romney 49
Saturday (39%) Obama 49, Romney 47
Sunday (24%) Obama 43, Romney 55

That Sunday sample, about a quarter of the total, was entirely responsible for Romney's favorable numbers. That's why the good pollsters collect data over multiple days, to smooth out such irregularities. And at 400 respondents (or so), Sunday had a single-day MoE of 4.9 percent. Lots of polls float around with worse. On the other hand, Saturday's sample MoE was 3.92 percent, while Friday's was 3.97 percent. And with no external news even suggesting the big Sunday collapse, it certainly smells like an outlier.

Moving on:

Swing state Obama 47, Romney 50
Blue state Obama 52, Romney 45
Red State Obama 40, Romney 56
Two weeks ago, it was Obama leading Romney 50-46 in the Swing states. But he was also winning Blue states by 56-37, and losing Red states by just 41-52. Actually, the change in Red states is smaller (-5) compared to Blue states (-12) and Swing states (-7).

Finally, a demographic note—in this poll, 44 percent of respondents were conservative, compared to 16 percent who were liberal. In 2008, 34 percent were conservative, and 22 percent were liberal. Now this could point to a bad sample, or it could point to depressed enthusiasm among our base. Let's really hope it's the former.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/...Nation-poll-Romney-s-best-numbers-of-the-week

OK so we're back to polls not mattering until they reflect Obama's massive Rd 2 debate turnaround, good.

 

[The Librarian]

In before panic!

 

[Loudninja]

In before panic!

Too late!

 

[Y2Kev]

What is "swing state"? What does that consist of?

 

[Loudninja]

What is "swing state"? What does that consist of?

Most like the same as the USA today poll.

 

[Zabka]

Pretty even except for the Sunday poll. Probably because liberals are recovering from smoking their marijuana cigarettes Saturday night.

My prediction for the media narrative tonight: Obama was energized but overcompensated, Romney held his own by not vomiting on stage and/or crying.

 

[SteveWinwood]

What is "swing state"? What does that consist of?

Well sometimes you just need to... spice things up.

 

[Dabanton]

Well the debate should be good tonight.

Hopefully...

 

[Aylinato]

This is for PD:



Polls go up, polls go down, you can't explain that.

 

[gcubed]

Except there's no evidence of this. People moved to Romney because he beat the president, and over 70 million people watched it. Of course it's going to have an impact. Assuming the media is running it all is just your spin on it.

weren't there 1 or 2 polls directly after the last debate that showed a tie? then the next day it was 70/30 romney?

 

[Byakuya769]

Not sure how much you guys are following California's Prop 37 which is to force the labeling of GMO's on our food.

But the Yes on 37 put out a response ad (we've been getting a bunch of No on 37) and it's a spoof ad.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kK3i2n8QGvQ

very well done.

That's going straight to SCOTUS and getting struck down as compelled speech.

 

[Owzers]

Why hasn't Hilary stepped down yet? They should let Romney fire her, since he enjoys it so much.

 

[Loudninja]

Romney to get first question at debate

According to the Commission on Presidential Debates, the Republican presidential nominee won the coin toss. Some of the approximately 80 undecided voters that will make up the town hall audience will ask questions to Romney and President Barack Obama.

After both the president and Romney have answered a voter's question, the moderator of the debate, CNN chief political correspondent Candy Crowley, will follow up with the two candidates.

There will be no closing statements tonight from the candidates.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/10/16/romney-to-get-first-question-at-debate/

Good.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

That PPP poll will not have a good effect on 538 today

 

[Dreamcaster]

Except there's no evidence of this. People moved to Romney because he beat the president, and over 70 million people watched it. Of course it's going to have an impact. Assuming the media is running it all is just your spin on it.

Mike Barnacle made a good point about this on Morning Joe this morning when talking about if Ohio was in play. He said 3½ weeks ago if you polled people around Columbus and Cleveland and asked them what they knew about Mitt Romney, they would probably say "a rich guy." If you polled those same areas today, the answer is "a guy who could be President." That is HUGE shift, even if it's not yet to the point of him necessarily winning that State and brings much more uncertainty into figuring out who undecideds will pull the lever for.

 

[Souldriver]

Obama better do well tonight.

Keep a nice balance between saying actual detailed policies (for the normal people), and appearing nice and eloquent and presidential (for the idiots and news networks).

Maybe I'll tune in at 3 am. But I have a long workday ahead of me, so I might not make it.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Take a note Obama and his surrogates (bar Clinton):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=mB7I0vpwT7M

Actually, make that a 2 minute TV ad.

 

[TacticalFox88]

Obama better do well tonight.

Keep a nice balance between saying actual detailed policies (for the normal people), and appearing nice and eloquent and presidential (for the idiots and news networks).

Maybe I'll tune in at 3 am. But I have a long workday ahead of me, so I might not make it.

Could do what I do. I simply go to sleep as soon as I take care of everything I need to for the night and wake up at 3.

 

[Brinbe]

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/...Nation-poll-Romney-s-best-numbers-of-the-week

OK so we're back to polls not mattering until they reflect Obama's massive Rd 2 debate turnaround, good.

It's probably a few percentage points closer, but I sincerely hope Obama supporters just treat this poll as gospel and set out to work and work harder for their candidate instead of fret or whine.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

It's probably a few percentage points closer, but I sincerely hope Obama supporters just treat this poll as gospel and set out to work and work harder for their candidate instead of fret or whine.

It will probably be unskewed next.

 

[Stinkles]

I hope someone asks Romney what he thinks a bag of 711 cookies costs.

Answer:

Spoiler

the election

 

[Y2Kev]

That PPP poll will not have a good effect on 538 today

I thought 538 doesn't incorporate "swing state" aggregate polls like that (like they wouldn't use the USA today poll).

 

[Stinkles]

Mike Barnacle made a good point about this on Morning Joe this morning when talking about if Ohio was in play. He said 3½ weeks ago if you polled people around Columbus and Cleveland and asked them what they knew about Mitt Romney, they would probably say "a rich guy." If you polled those same areas today, the answer is "a guy who could be President." That is HUGE shift, even if it's not yet to the point of him necessarily winning that State and brings much more uncertainty into figuring out who undecideds will pull the lever for.

Not only is that a terrible point, its an anecdote made up out of whole cloth.

 

[Loudninja]

Mike Barnacle made a good point about this on Morning Joe this morning when talking about if Ohio was in play. He said 3½ weeks ago if you polled people around Columbus and Cleveland and asked them what they knew about Mitt Romney, they would probably say "a rich guy." If you polled those same areas today, the answer is "a guy who could be President." That is HUGE shift, even if it's not yet to the point of him necessarily winning that State and brings much more uncertainty into figuring out who undecideds will pull the lever for.

Ohio is not is not in play at this time.

 

[iamshadowlark]

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/...Nation-poll-Romney-s-best-numbers-of-the-week

OK so we're back to polls not mattering until they reflect Obama's massive Rd 2 debate turnaround, good.

Dude, it even says its probably a outlier in that text you quoted. Did you read it?

 

[Tim-E]

It's probably a few percentage points closer, but I sincerely hope Obama supporters just treat this poll as gospel and set out to work and work harder for their candidate instead of fret or whine.

This is the democrat's base we're talking about here, you know what they're going to do.

 

[codhand]

Did you read it?

naah

 

[Tim-E]

naah

What's the point in reading when dooooooooooooooooom

 

[Plinko]

Romney to get first question at debate

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/10/16/romney-to-get-first-question-at-debate/

Good.

I'm still stunned that people are undecided. How? How is that possible?

 

[codhand]

I'm stunned the Lions still have fans

 

[GhaleonEB]

I'm not watching the debate. I'll listen to whatever the post-debate commentary is. Clearly what actually happens at the debate doesn't matter. The only thing that does matter is how the media interprets it.

Likewise. I don't need to punish myself.

I'm still stunned that people are undecided. How? How is that possible?

Low information voters.

 

[Dreamcaster]

I'm still stunned that people are undecided. How? How is that possible?

Has anyone seen any demographics on who the undecideds are? Who they voted for in 2008, men/women, rural/urban, etc?