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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.
- Thread starter Amir0x
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CNN is so damn sad.
Yeah.. I could see an "Obama comeback" narrative being hatched tonight, especially if he's particularly good tonight. Or if Romney's particularly bad.
the idea of an electoral college win with a popular vote defeat is massively overplayed. it's not impossible of course, but it's very unlikely and could end up the other way.
CaptainSchwann
Member
Yeah polling is either screwy or just plain rigged in Nevada. Back in 2010 the polls showed Reid behind by a couple points consistently, but he ended up winning by a margin of 7+ points if I recall.
hydragonwarrior
Member
Unless Obama is able to catch Romney's lies quickly and succinctly, Romney will capture the flow of the debate again. He's willing to lie and flip and will keep it up because it apparently works and NO one is calling him on it.
Hopefully OBama proves me wrong
Hopefully OBama proves me wrong
Throwing him under the bus before the debate will motivate him to keep his pants on this time around and take that liar apart piece by piece
ryutaro's mama
Member
It's incredibly hard to be bad @ a Town Hall Debate.
On a related note, how many here think that 47% will be a question?
Also, will abortion come up again, since it was already raised @ the VP debate?
I think Obama is the favorite but I don't think you can go that far.
Dreamcaster
Banned
I'm looking at the opportunities on both sides - to say Libya is not an opportunity for Romney is nonsense. How much of an opportunity, I don't know/
On the "doctors" thing, I was half-joking. I like to think of being on plane when someone has a heart attack and the captain asks "Is there a doctor on the plane?" and all the English PhDs raise their hand and he says "Sorry, I meant a REAL doctor" and they all bow their head in shame.
soundahfekz
Member
I dislike CNN more than I dislike Fox news. Such a passive, pussyfooting organization.
Given early voting, it would really take a huge catastrophe to flip Ohio.
Not that Obama is incapable of a huge catastrophe, mind you.
No, it was called at 11. It's never called before 11, I don't think it's possible to have enough Evs.
So let's talk about something else -- California propositions!
Here's what I have:
Yes on 34, 35, 36, 37, 39, 40
No on 31, 32, 33
I know I want to support one of 30 or 38, but I'm pretty unclear on which. 30 seems superior since it avoids the trigger cuts? But 38 raises more cash. I'll probably vote 30 for Jerry Brown if there's nothing I'm missing.
(And yes, I'm voting for GMO labelling. Sorry, you can just put me down as crazy if you want.)
Here's what I have:
Yes on 34, 35, 36, 37, 39, 40
No on 31, 32, 33
I know I want to support one of 30 or 38, but I'm pretty unclear on which. 30 seems superior since it avoids the trigger cuts? But 38 raises more cash. I'll probably vote 30 for Jerry Brown if there's nothing I'm missing.
(And yes, I'm voting for GMO labelling. Sorry, you can just put me down as crazy if you want.)
Right, off by an hour. Might be a long night.
Agreed. If he leads by 40% for the first 1/4th of the vote, Romney has to win the remaining vote by a ridiculous margin just to pull even. It's funny watching the media tiptoe around this whenever the state is brought-up.
We'll either be waiting for Virginia, Iowa, or - worst case - Nevada. If one key state is close, perhaps even later.
I'm not sure. They have 2-3 hrs to call Iowa. That will basically end the race.
If its super tight (and to be frank we have no indication it is right now) then this could go on into the night...
Black Republican
Member
so many heart attacks during tonights debate i presume
Suikoguy
I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Florida was easy, No on everything. (11 is up for debate, but seniors already have a pretty good deal with property taxes).
Just watched some old election coverage, seems that Iowa was called at 10pm EST. Could take longer this time but I think they should have it before 11.
Iowa and Ohio will clinch it.
NihonTiger90
Member
In Ohio, we have only two.
Issue 1 is to allow for a constitutional convention. Not sure how I feel on that since I feel like it would just lead to chaos, but I don't think it'll pass.
Big yes on Issue 2, which the GOP is throwing a shitfit over. It shifts redistricting to a citizen commission. Gee, I wonder why they're so upset:
It's because they couldn't gerrymander the fuck out of the state anymore.
speculawyer
Member
A123 went bankrupt. That is a hit to the gut that is going to be brought up tonight.
This sucks. If they had got the Volt contract they probably would have been fine. The good news is that Johnson Controls snapped them up so they'll continue on but politically this really hurts Obama.
Obama better have a good answer for this.
This sucks. If they had got the Volt contract they probably would have been fine. The good news is that Johnson Controls snapped them up so they'll continue on but politically this really hurts Obama.
Obama better have a good answer for this.
speculawyer
Member
I think the 3 bolded are his best bet. Also, Romney is kinda screwed in that he needs OH.
I sincerely doubt this is in tonight's questions.
Anyone have any idea about the sequestering budget cuts? I've been reading a lot of studies lately that this could lead (especially the medicare cuts) to as many as 700,000 jobs being lost over the next decade (just from the medicare cuts). This leads me to think that the Repubs will go into full stalling mode just to let this happen, because it'll hurt Obama. I always assumed that no way could these cuts to Medicare (and the military, and other federal programs that people depend on) go through, but now I wonder.
eBay Huckster
Member
In Ohio, we have only two.
Issue 1 is to allow for a constitutional convention. Not sure how I feel on that since I feel like it would just lead to chaos, but I don't think it'll pass.
Big yes on Issue 2, which the GOP is throwing a shitfit over. It shifts redistricting to a citizen commission. Gee, I wonder why they're so upset:
It's because they couldn't gerrymander the fuck out of the state anymore.
I'm voting yes on both issues - if Issue 1 passes it could lead to recalls being added to the Ohio constitution, something I'd be pretty okay with.
Dreamcaster
Banned
Romney will bring it up - doesn't have to be in a question. Anything related to green energy or energy independence allows the tangent.
Might happen, if only because it's easier to get a bill passed replacing the spending and certain cuts than to negotiate what they need to to avoid it. So if it does pass, it won't really be in effect for long.
Mitt would be downright fucking stupid to bring up letting companies go bankrupt if he's honestly trying to make a play for Ohio.
Anderson Cooper on why the math DOES NOT work.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NRxFImAnN1Y&feature=player_embedded
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NRxFImAnN1Y&feature=player_embedded
Manmademan
Member
The answer as it was before when solyndra was brought up is that the program as a whole has a success rate in the very high 90 percent range. By anyones definition it's a good investment. I think Biden brought up your average hedge fund has a success rate in the 60 percent range.
Dreamcaster
Banned
The numbers are too big for the average voter to even understand, so Romney can remain purposefully vague.
PhoenixDark
Banned
There's a story on TPM right now saying Romney plans on demanding Obama "man up" and take responsibility for Libya, aimed at politicizing Hillary's resignation. Very interesting trap that I'm not sure Obama will be prepared to handle
Yeah..
I'm doing some rough back-of-the-napkin math here.
Let's assume that PPP's poll is roughly right.
About 20% of the population has voted already.
About 80% of the population (at most) is expected to vote in this election. {This was ~66% in 2008.}
Obama won the already-voted group, 76-24. That's a 52-point lead.
In order to pull slightly ahead, Romney would have to win the remaining 75% of the vote by about 18%.
First quartile of vote: 76-24
Second quartile: 59-41
Third quartile: 59-41
Fourth quartile: 59-41
Total: 199-201 >>> 49.75% for Obama, 50.25% for Romney
And if turnout is even less, around 2008 levels, Romney would have to win by an even larger margin.
I don't see Romney making-up that kind of margin.
Hillary announced her resignation like a year ago.
CaptainSchwann
Member
This. She has said she wouldn't be around for an Obama 2nd term.
Not as alone as Obama, with his loveless marriage and his constant use of his power to abuse women.
Sometimes even after serious "well-intentioned" intervention, companies go bust. Romney knows all about that. Only when they go bust, he profits.
Dreamcaster
Banned
Man, that would cause some squirming. "Mr. President, Secretary Clinton took responsibility for the security lapse in Libya and said the Buck Stops With her. President Truman had a sign on his desk that said "The Buck Stops Here" and I fundamentally believe the buck stops with the President. Do you take any responsibility for the disaster in Libya and the loss of 4 Americans?"
How does he get out of that? I think the best thing he could say is "This happened on my watch and yes, I take responsibility." Anything else will come off bad.
That and I can't get behind the idea that the government should only be providing grants to completely tried and true businesses and tech. I mean, part of the reason for government expenditures in science is to do the things that are not projected to be profitable enough (or are simply too unknown or risky) for private enterprise to want to take the risk since they're all about getting a return.
yeah i mean, if obama was at all interested in the last debate the whole "you pick companies that go bankrupt" is an embarrassingly easy charge to come back from against Romney
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