PhoenixDark
Banned
Which one of those has predicted election results accurately for decades? Gallup
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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.
- Thread starter Amir0x
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There certainly is, but we also have that Washington post/abc poll showing Obama up by +3 and it is a very reputable poll. I think it's likely Romney is up by 0-2% nationally, assuming likely voter screens are accurate, and with that kind of lead it is expected that on some days he is ahead by as much as 4-5%.
i give up
eBay Huckster
Member
and which one had pretty comical issues throughout october in the last presidential cycle? stop pretending they're infallible and also stop pretending you can only look at one polling outfit here
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
Gallup is in Omaha, where nobody comes. Chicago politics don't work here with everyone as nice as they are...just don't come to north Omaha.
This is the consequence of you showing up in the thread only when Romney started doing well. There was a lot of discussion of the four different tracking polls after the DNC, because they showed wildly different readings of Obama's bounce. Then as now, Gallup was the most right-leaning, RAND the furthest left. They did eventually converge. (And I stopped talking about Rasmussen entirely as part of my plan to eradicate them from existence.)
If you want to use RAND over Gallup, be my guest.
What has a better record of prediction than Gallup? An aggregate of the reputable pollsters adjusted for empirical bias.
Why not use both?
eBay Huckster
Member
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
Regardless of what Gallup may or may not be doing correctly, I think we can safely call the national polls statistically tied at best right now, which is terrifying enough.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Could mean he's doing better in the 3-day polling than 7-day right now or it could mean nothing. The correlation hasn't been established as far as I could tell.
Fair point. I do largely avoid this thread. For a relatively right leaning poster, this is account suicide if I get too carried away.
My personal feelings not withstanding, I do enjoy the actual political conversation and there are a lot of knowledgeable people here.
I don't know what polls are accurate, but I do know that Gallup recently changed their methodology to address the Obama camp complaints and that historically Gallup has a great track record- to try and trivialize the results right now after people were tracking it obsessively for signs of Romney's bump fading strikes me as cherry picking.
For the record, I think Obama is still a 65% favorite to win.
eBay Huckster
Member
(i don't understand why you'd be using a 7-day sample instead of 4-day at this point in the first place even if the latter's more susceptible to noise - and this is directed at both gallup and RAND - but then i'm not super into polling)
The Lamonster
Member
W was re-elected, and look at the mess it put us in, and here they are begging for Romney to implement the same failed policies. It's fucked up.
He must have been super fun to be around the past two weeks.
djplaeskool
Member
It's probably been said here, but my co-worker just noted the absolute chaos the polls seem to be and stated, "Jesus Christ. American politics has completed its devolution into American Idol."
You said this like 4 times now.
Aaron Strife
Banned
They doubled the GOP's winning margin in 2010.
eBay Huckster
Member
i hold in my hands proof that president obama subscribes to debate fancy magazine. what is he trying to hide from the american people?!
As long as Obama is favored to win in Nevada, Iowa, and Ohio then there's no reason to care what national polls say.
Edit:
It may have been already discussed, but Virginia and Colorado are back in Obama's column (though slightly) on 538.
PhoenixDark
Banned
Voters like Obama and think he's done alright, but think Romney will do better. It's as simple as that
I was honestly surprised how down on Obama's performance people were. The MSNBC meltdowns were lol. I suppose I'm a substance over style person which puts me in the minority, but I knew Romney was just talking loudly out of his ass. Obama's responses seemed to me more like he was actually thinking of a response based on what Romney said, where as Romney as just reciting talking points he had memorized. MSNBC should've spent all their meltdowns on what a horrible liar Romney was rather than about how Obama was a big sissy.
This is the exact kind of inane and myopic questioning that makes political debates so useless.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
By your own standards though Gallup has no precedent for a President with approval above 48% to lose.
speculawyer
Member
indeed. as if the bush years were not enough
Aaron Strife
Banned
Scholastic Student Vote picks Obama 51-45
They've predicted the winner in all but two of the presidential elections since 1940. Sorry PD.
They've predicted the winner in all but two of the presidential elections since 1940. Sorry PD.
Particle Physicist
between a quark and a baryon
He is down Friday, ahead Saturday, and down again on Sunday.. far from cratering... and that sunday number is just odd. Romney went up eight points in a day with no major news or issues? Looks like an outlier to me.
I voted for Bill Clinton in a 1996 Nickelodeon Presidential election.
I think people that support and have worked for him have a right to be pissed.
This isn't people complaining that he doesn't send thank you notes.
PhoenixDark
Banned
I don't think it'll be above that on Election Day though. I think we're seeing the early signs of the public, specifically independents and white voters, divorcing a likable incumbent right now. Romney can seal the deal tonight.
Voters agree with Obama on most issues yet he has failed to effectively communicate it effectively. I don't see that changing tonight; he won't bomb, but he'll be the same unclear and unfocused candidate he's been since late August.
Romney doesn't need Ohio to win
I don't want to trivialize them per se, I mean, that poll sucks. But the point is that PD is critiquing a particular claim by Mamba, and that particular claim was about the tracking polls, not necessarily a specific tracking poll. On average, Obama has been gaining in the tracking polls in the last few days. Would it be nice if he were doing better in Gallup? Sure. But I don't think that they're necessarily superior to all the others. (Nor do I really think we should be getting so obsessive about tracking polls in any case.)
Dreamcaster
Banned
Tuned into Rush and I think he has a good point about Romney's ability to control the debates, owing it to his time at Bain. How many 'flim flam" (Rush's word, I've never heard it before) men do you think Romney has had to deal with - guys in business who we all know that try and get by on BS, their companies are in the tank and asking Bain for more capital, etc. - people Romney needed to see through and shoot down as part of his business (suspend belief that he shut down companies for his own profit for a minute)?
Now, whether or not you agree that Obama is running on a failed record and trying to sell it, Romney may have more experience in actually controlling the room, versus being "given the room" as happens with a President.
I think we discount Romney's ability in this respect because he's awkward as a campaigner at times (most of the time). He might have a hard time relating to Joe Main Street, but we shouldn't project that on his ability to control a room when something is being sold/pitched/debated.
Now, whether or not you agree that Obama is running on a failed record and trying to sell it, Romney may have more experience in actually controlling the room, versus being "given the room" as happens with a President.
I think we discount Romney's ability in this respect because he's awkward as a campaigner at times (most of the time). He might have a hard time relating to Joe Main Street, but we shouldn't project that on his ability to control a room when something is being sold/pitched/debated.
Draw us a map?
Aaron Strife
Banned
I voted for Bob Dole on the principle of liking the name Bob better than Bill. I was five years old.
Don't mind if 'bams takes it, then.
Most likely Romney victory without Ohio: http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=JjNpigeon said:
If Obama won any other swing state besides New Hampshire he'd win.
Half and half
Member
Reuters/Ipsos daily tracking poll.
46-43 O
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/16/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSBRE89F14C20121016
46-43 O
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/16/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSBRE89F14C20121016
I'm not trying to call out Mamba or get personal, but I distinctly recall him predicting Gallup specifically was going to swing back to Obama.
Holy shit, PPP/Gallup polling is absolutely devastating.
Just when I thought the bleeding had stopped... we had a lot of strong polling breaking in Obama's favor, now this. Not happy to see PA tightening either.
I did a double take when I saw the LV model. I thought it had Obama at 50%, not Romney. Fuck.
That is a really drastic swing from pre-debate. I don't know if surviving this one will be enough to pull Obama out of this ditch.
It's really incredible, this President has done so much to help people and now they are getting turned off because he turned in a bad debate. Granted, he should have known better, but if people think Romney is going to do a better job they're insane.
This is looking like 2000, where the GOP wins by a razor thin margin.
Just when I thought the bleeding had stopped... we had a lot of strong polling breaking in Obama's favor, now this. Not happy to see PA tightening either.
I did a double take when I saw the LV model. I thought it had Obama at 50%, not Romney. Fuck.
That is a really drastic swing from pre-debate. I don't know if surviving this one will be enough to pull Obama out of this ditch.
It's really incredible, this President has done so much to help people and now they are getting turned off because he turned in a bad debate. Granted, he should have known better, but if people think Romney is going to do a better job they're insane.
This is looking like 2000, where the GOP wins by a razor thin margin.
I think Gallup is much more credible at this point in the game.
Haha sure.
http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=JjL
This is the most realistic win for Romney without Ohio, which I don't think is very realistic. If Obama is going to win Ohio I don't see him losing all of Iowa, Nevada, Colorado, Virginia and New Hampshire.
Isn't approval "all adults" and not RV/LVs?
Ehh I think he does. It would take a virtual sweep of all the other swing states just to get to 269.
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