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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.
- Thread starter Amir0x
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Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Aaron Strife
Banned
He's got a huge built-in lead in Iowa. And he leads in Nevada polls even though those have a history of lowballing Democratic support.
I still think he wins Florida and Virginia but it doesn't matter, his firewall's holding strong.
Seriously wtf is going on.
Gallup really scares me because they're the holy grail of polling at this point in a Presidential race. PPP is pretty damn good too.
Gallup really scares me because they're the holy grail of polling at this point in a Presidential race. PPP is pretty damn good too.
If Mitt continues to widen his already 4-point LV lead the firewall is up for grabs.
I have no idea.
Come on, Romney is the flim flam man. Are you serious? Rush? Really now.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Fucking hell, you're right. We should all give up now.
Gallup's likely voter spread is absurd. There's not going to be a four-point turnout difference. It's going to tighten up. I posted a Nate Cohn article about this two weeks ago.
Dreamcaster
Banned
If Romney wins, probably won't just be sneaking Ohio and getting to 271 - it could be a wave election.
Black Mamba
Member
Gallup is the only one showing this
Remember, Gallup also said Obama had no bounce from the convention after a week when everyone else had Obama up big.
Obama is up in five of the seven trackers and only Gallup is bigger than three.
Either Gallup knows something no one else has all year or they're missing something. Guess well find out
Agreed!
I want to put all your posts together, frame them, and put them in the Met labelled "Visions of A Parallel Universe."
I still stand by my 303 EV prediction.
http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=JjY
Obama can lose like four states with this map and still win, too. Sure, I don't like that this race has tightened, but Obama's electoral firewall will keep me from taking anxiety meds.
They have to know something. I don't think they are one to bluff. And the Obama campaign calling them out reeks of panic/desperation.
Gallup is the holy grail for this, they would not fabricate their numbers or use sketchy stats.
What planet are you from?
:lol
I'm guessing they're just polling idiots.
Honestly if Romney wins on a wave election, I don't think I'd be able to stop laughing. Hopefully four years of being absolutely destroyed by plutocrats would help start a revolution.
Idiots who vote that the other pollsters aren't talking to, sure.
but they're the holy grail dude (unless they show obama ahead by a lot, then rasmussen* is the holy grail)
*they were closer than gallup in 2008!
Mercury Fred
Banned
OK, I'm officially over your shenanigans. They're tired and dumb.
BrokenEchelon
Banned
Aaron Strife
Banned
Their 2010 polls were complete shit.
Black Mamba
Member
Reuters, Rand, USB/tippz and even google has shown a clear shift back to Obama. The national polls from abc and NBC has too. He'll even raw has just held steady. Gallup is literally the only poll to show a shift to Romney in the past seven days.
It really makes no sense cuz Gallup isn't bad.
It really makes no sense cuz Gallup isn't bad.
Baraka in the White House
2-Terms of Kombat
Y'all so crazy.
Should Obama split his attack to all the battleground states? It seems obvious that Romney needs to flip/hold like 4 states to win. Of course if Obama holds Ohio, he wins. But what if the Romney wave is making progress in Ohio? Should Obama attack the other states and force Romney to defend them? Romney can't win without all of them while Obama only really needs to hold one.
you know why
So out of five polls, only one shows any sizable lead for Romney, and you think the other four are the ones that got it wrong.
Can ask you something?
Are you a fucking idiot?
Aaron Strife
Banned
With Gallup it's much better to just look at the trends then focus on day-to-day aberrations. However we're getting closer to crunch time so people are attaching undue significance to the horserace numbers.
This is probably more realistic, but I gotta hold out some hope. I think Colorado and Virginia are the only two true "swing" states right now, though. Florida, maybe, but I'm not going to count on it.
speculawyer
Member
Perhaps, I'm talking about their Presidential polling though.
So why do people think they are infallible?
I would just call it an outlier, but it's weird that the same thing happened in the same direction during the DNC bounce -- Romney gained in Gallup during the thick of it. Could be a structural issue, I guess, but we'll never know.
Mgoblue201
Won't stop picking the right nation
A massive shift like this demands a high level of proof, so we should see a similar shift in the other polls before reaching a conclusion. Yet Gallup is the only one showing that Romney is more than +1. In comparison to the ABC/WaPo and the Reuters polls, Gallup show Romney in a position that is seven points better. I don't care how much credibility they have. There is no way that every other poll, which has generally shown an even race or a slight shift back to Obama, is wrong. Even Gallup's RV has stopped making sense.
It should be noted that back in June Nate Silver had Gallup pegged as the most Republican-leaning major national pollster at the moment, though I don't think that accounts for the shift we are seeing now. Gallup does have credibility, which is why this is so strange.
He's the king of chickenlittles. If he isn't panicked he isn't happy.
Black Mamba
Member
My post is talking about the trends. Every poll but ras has trended big back to Obama. Some over five points. Ras shows no trend. Only Gallup is showing a Romney trend. It's weird.
eBay Huckster
Member
so are we back to this current discussion
for about the tenth fucking time in this thread
for about the tenth fucking time in this thread
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
New intrade market. Winner of second debate according to CNN poll. I'm not sure I would put my money on something like this, what if the CNN poll is the only that gets it wrong like they did with the VP debate.
http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/?eventId=91958
http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/?eventId=91958
It's the same people doing the exact same thing every day at the same time. At 1 PM this thread turns into vomit.
Yep,same time tomorrow?
At least the approval ticked up and that's based on 3days lol. Obama MUST do well tonight and change this freakin' narrative.
Baraka in the White House
2-Terms of Kombat
You love punishment? I'm gonna watch the entire debate WHILE following along here.
Black Mamba
Member
I'd also like to point out that Gallup has Obama and Romney tied among registered voters
His outcome is laughable. No single poll since summer has had it within here points among registered voters. And repubs can pretty much never win an rv battle.
They've show. The rv lv gap so small all year. Like I said either Gallup is an outlier or everyone else is doing something very wrong. My money is on outlier.
His outcome is laughable. No single poll since summer has had it within here points among registered voters. And repubs can pretty much never win an rv battle.
They've show. The rv lv gap so small all year. Like I said either Gallup is an outlier or everyone else is doing something very wrong. My money is on outlier.
eBay Huckster
Member
i'm going to watch the debate while imagining mitt romney is diablos
It's truly fucking pathetic. It's one thing to panic when the drop was happening over the last two weeks. But the bleeding has stopped. The worst Obama ever got to in FiveThirtyEight's chances of winning was 61%. It was never close to a 50-50 race or a Romney lead. And now that Obama is actually improving in the polls, he's still shitting his pants over one poll when a number of others contradict it.
It's absolutely fucking pathetic. Hey Diablos, why don't you find your fucking testicles and start acting like you have at least some amount of self-respect left.
PhoenixDark
Banned
Because they are, in presidential elections?
Even the other trackers aren't really great news for Obama. He's still under 50% as an incumbent, a couple weeks from the election.
It's obvious that a lot of voters were looking for an excuse not to vote for Obama, but didn't have a legit alternative given Romney's horrible campaign. That changed at the first debate, and Obama stil hasn't recovered. And all this because Obama couldn't will himself to play the game for 90 minutes.
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