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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.
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Aaron Strife
Banned
Running out of angry white people.Arizona turning blue? Holyshit
speculawyer
Member
Mercury Fred
Banned
If Obama stepped down and put up Hillary in his place and had an American Idol type competition to find America's Next Top VP, what would happen?
jamesinclair
Banned
How much would you pay for the following scenario?
Imagine in the debate tonight....
"Mr. Romney, I'm John Smith, and I have a prepared question about pizza choice, but first let me introduce myself. I'm 74, I fought in the Korean War and was a POW for 6 months. After returning to America, the government loaned me money to start a business, which I grew to five locations and 200 staff. I retired a age 71 due to a heart condition. I now collect SS and Medicare, and so I dont pay income tax. Mr. Romney, I have always voted Republican, but now I am part of the 47%. What about my life story makes you think I am entitled, am a victim and am guaranteed to vote for Obama? Was it my time as a federal employee in a north korean prison? Was it the loan I got from the government which I fully paid back? Or is it because I collect the security I paid into my entire life?"
Imagine in the debate tonight....
"Mr. Romney, I'm John Smith, and I have a prepared question about pizza choice, but first let me introduce myself. I'm 74, I fought in the Korean War and was a POW for 6 months. After returning to America, the government loaned me money to start a business, which I grew to five locations and 200 staff. I retired a age 71 due to a heart condition. I now collect SS and Medicare, and so I dont pay income tax. Mr. Romney, I have always voted Republican, but now I am part of the 47%. What about my life story makes you think I am entitled, am a victim and am guaranteed to vote for Obama? Was it my time as a federal employee in a north korean prison? Was it the loan I got from the government which I fully paid back? Or is it because I collect the security I paid into my entire life?"
Of course there's no guarantee of a rebound. However, you have to take the circumstances into account.
The story is that Obama lost the first debate by historic margins, that his thrashing was nearly unprecedented in scope. Because of this, Obama does not have to do much to achieve what would be perceived to be a "comeback." All he needs to do is show vitality and energy and be a little more specific and persistent in calling out Romney's misstatements. As long as he looks like he showed up and came to play, that should be enough to set the narrative about how "the President came back swinging" once the debate is over. Hell, even just "well I think he did better than last time" would likely suffice. He doesn't need some big huge swing. He doesn't need a big rebound in the polls to be able to win. He just needs to make sure Romney doesn't make any further in-roads into Ohio. That's really just about it.
Romney, on the other hand, needs another crushing win. If he can't soundly and thoroughly defeat the president again, he won't be able to flip all of the states he needs to. And the last debate, being a foreign policy debate, is unlikely to move the electorate much either way. Even if Romney were to "win" that third debate or prove himself more knowledgeable than people expect, it will likely do him little good. The electorate doesn't really give much of a shit about Libya. Tonight is basically do or die time for Romney, now that things have mostly settled down in the race, polling noise notwithstanding. If Romney wants to win, he MUST start his final push tonight or else he'll never make it. Time is still currently on Obama's side.
OT is a scary place, g'damn.
NullPointer
Member
Cabbies are weird, and usually physically attached to their radios. So you tend to get whatever political spin is on the talk radio circuit.
I had a cabbie pick me up the other day and we got to talking about politics. The driver said that, as a Muslim he never supported Bush and could not support Romney.
Was a pleasant conversation really.
But then he blurted out that he would have never voted for that Jew Lieberman, and that 9/11 was plotted by Bush senior, and had to be delayed before being finally unleashed by Dubya.
"Yeah, I can get off right here, thanks."
Sounds abouts rights.
Beer Monkey
Member
The appeals judge already called him back to court once and then Husted backed down like a pussy.
Judges don't like contempt of their courts. Husted is going to be a good little lap dog and do what he's told or he's going to the slammer (which would really be kind of awesome).
I had a Bangladeshi cab driver say he was voting for Romney because Wall Street had tanked under Obama.
I couldn't get out because we were on the Brooklyn Bridge.
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
Well, all that does is ruin Obama's clean sweep of NYC.
Good question. But I wouldn't put it past him to invalidate the votes even if it means threats of getting jailed or making it go all the way to the supreme court if indeed the election comes down to OH.
He's been tenacious in his efforts to deny people the right the vote early and every time they tell him to back off, he gets right back to it.
Aaron Strife
Banned
They'll just throw out all the early votes.
I think election night is going to be fun. I'm expecting a collective pants shitting/meltdown when NH gets called early for Romney. Chris Mathews will probably have an on air aneurysm. After about an hour of doom saying, OH/MI/WI/PA will all be called for Obama bringing everyone back from the ledge. Shortly after, FL/NC/VA all got called for Romney, once again throwing liberals into a panic. Finally, IA and NV get called for Obama, prompting a huge sigh of relief. Should be a helluva roller coaster ride.
littleworm
Member
So in all honesty, how do you guys think Obama will do tonight?
Steve Youngblood
Member
I think he'll do well, but I don't expect fireworks either way.
Baraka in the White House
2-Terms of Kombat
I think he'll do fine. No matter what it's highly unlikely he'll be declared the "winner" of the debate. The media has their horse race narrative and they're not going to let it go until election day. The best he can hope for is a tie that reassures Democrats and gets Republicans grumbling again.
Dreamcaster
Banned
NH is actually Obama's first stop after the election - can't believe he and his team would have ever thought he'd be spending time there in mid-October.
Red Blaster
Member
Won't be an overwhelming victory bu will do fine overall; more assertive and will call Romney on BS.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Also they won't let the early voters vote again. They committed voter fraud.
Unless they're white.
Unless they're white.
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
He will obviously at least look much more engaged than in the first debate. Other than that it probably depends more on how Romney handles the town hall questions himself.
wasn't he trying to walk back his comments on that?
NullPointer
Member
This cracked me up more than it should have. I know that feeling though.
This is the man that held an impromptu news conference to tell the world he agreed with those statements and that he'd move forward with that message. Then days later said he was utterly and completely wrong.
He's a fucking asshole, pardon my French, and its shameful that so many people let him get away with it. The quantum candidate yet again trying to have it both ways.
Wow. That sounds remarkably spot-on. If NH is called early for Obama, I'll take it as a very good sign. If VA is called for Obama early, I'm poppin' the champagne.
Wheeljack539
Member
Question - I think it was mentioned sometime back about another candidate on Virginia's ballot, Virgil Goode and the potential to split the Republican vote there. How is that looking at the moment or has something happened to scrub him from the ballot?
Nobody payed any attention.
Officerrob
Banned
Because of the format, I think there is very little chance either guy breaks out and "wins" this, so I'm going with a tie. With that said, the CNN snap poll will come out saying Romney won pretty easily (causing PD to flood the thread with troll posts and fake polls while Diablos has a full-out spaz session). Later state polls will prove the debate was basically a draw
I think he'll hold his own, not sure if he will have a historic victory over Mitt though. Either way, the media is going to do everything they can to keep the horse race narrative going, downplaying for as long as possible any huge moves made by Obama during the debate.
It's unfortunate because Obama needs to deliver a "knockout punch" as the talking heads like to say, but when you are mostly attacking the other guy through a voter, it's hard to do that without looking like a dick.
So I'm anticipating at best a draw and hoping that the bleeding will continue to stop.
The Technomancer
card-carrying scientician
I don't think either of them can "win" it by doing spectacularly well, but Romney has a semi-real chance of screwing up, while I don't think Obama does.
Aaron Strife
Banned
"We polled a scientifically chosen sample of Republican seniors in Florida and they've all reached one unanimous conclusion: They want to know when Matlock is starting."
I caught a couple of clips from the 2008 town hall debate floating around and couldn't help but notice that Obama's enthusiasm and energy were about the same as his "disastrous" first debate for 2012. So I expect that, however he performs tonight, narrative is king.
he's on the ballot
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
He'll underwhelm again and PoliGAF will implode.
Just saw this. Genius.
It wasn't just enthusiasm/energy but his lack of wanting to discredit the blantant lies. Everything from the $716b Medicare Ryan talking point, to $90b in green programs, Romneycare being fundamentally different than Obamacare, having a similar view on Social Security (wtf), etc. Obama can be cool and calm but he can't do so to the point where his opponent is permitted to lie his ass of and walk through his platform with little opposition for an hour and a half.
jamesinclair
Banned
Romney is screwed when an audience member pulls out a briefcase of his taxes and starts asking questions.
" Mr Romney, I see in 2004, you paid 1%, thoughts?"
" Mr Romney, I see in 2004, you paid 1%, thoughts?"
Not anticipating that but it sure would be delicious.
That would be the greatest thing ever...
Dreamcaster
Banned
He was also going up against McCain, who is about as dynamic as a statue. Not that anyone though Romney would be dynamic, but he seemed in his element in the first debate.
Hobbestetrician
Member
What is the confidence level that the electoral college will hold up? Specifically OH, IA, and NV? I know early voting in the first two is a large benefit but will it hold up? I know all this 'fundamentals of electoral college' and 'Romney is rallying in Ohio' stuff I am seeing is just the media being the media for the most part (and, if anything, it's not moving to being an advantage to Romney, just less of a disadvantage) and that tonight can have a big impact but I guess I just need someone to tell me that this firewall is still holding and is likely to hold through the election.
He's on the ballot, which is why I think Obama will squeak by a win there despite polls being so tight.
I don't think the Obama campaign will have a worse polling week than the one following the first debate. I expect the polls, and the IA, OH, and NV firewall, to remain where they are.
haha, that's hilarious.
Also, what the hell is up with all these weird contradictory polls? I'm still betting on Obama winning with 303 EVs. I don't get all the panic. Romney has failed to make a big enough dent in the Midwest swing states even at his peak in polling (after a disastrous debate for Obama) to be able to realistically win this thing.
I'm just upset that there's no way my state of Indiana will go for Obama again. I have no idea how that happened in 08, but I was hoping it would be the beginning of a shift to a less conservative Indiana. And now we're going to elect Mike Pence as governor, so there goes that hope.
Byakuya769
Member
"Yes, I do, and like Osama Bin Laden - we will hunt these killers to the gates of hell and take them out. Now, Governor Romney, do you take responsibility for the positions you held a month ago."
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