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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.

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D

Diablos

Member
Jackson50: Why would they pick such a high number then? They must have their reasons.

markatisu, I wasn't worrying. Just because my post does not bleed blind optimism does not = worrying.

Also, why does anyone take We Ask America seriously? They seem like a clown pollster, bro. They shouldn't even be in the RCP average imo.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Black Mamba said:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/va/virginia_romney_vs_obama-1774.html#polls

RCP has the 51/46.

That link is weird. Look at the sample size for Likely Voters. 2700!? When does anyone do almost 3k LV for a state like Va? That is very large

Anyway, I have no idea why RCP has the 14-16 and this one is 17-19 of Sept. There is a mistake somewhere. I mean, there is no way PPP did 2 polls back to back.
Click to expand...

Apparently they were doing a long series of private battleground semi-push polls for NRDC. http://www.nrdcactionfund.org/undecidedvoters/ Anyway, either way, it's a solid poll for Obama.

@pppolls said:
Friday was a strong day for Romney in our VA polling, Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday were about par for the course of our work there this yr
Click to expand...

Boing.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls
Friday was a strong day for Romney in our VA polling, Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday were about par for the course of our work there this yr
Click to expand...

BOOM. Makes that 1 point even more insignificant. If all the 1 point switch came from Friday, indicates lead is unchanged.

Apparently they were doing a long series of private battleground semi-push polls for NRDC. http://www.nrdcactionfund.org/undecidedvoters/ Anyway, either way, it's a solid poll for Obama.
Click to expand...

Okay, makes sense.


So as I said, this is a BAD poll for Romney. It is showing ZERO bounce.
 
T

teh_pwn

"Saturated fat causes heart disease as much as Brawndo is what plants crave."
Black Mamba said:
So as I said, this is a BAD poll for Romney. It is showing ZERO bounce.
Click to expand...

Lawrence O'donnell: Guess which polling flip flopped?
*short pause*
Lawrence O'donnell: That's right, Mitt Romney.
*grins*
*intro music*
 
J

Jackson50

Member
EatChildren said:
Greetings Americans. I'd like to enquire as to which shape shifting reptiliod is perceived to be winning the faux popularity contest you call an election.
Click to expand...
Ron Paul.
MasterShotgun said:
Has enough time passed since the jobs report for it to have a noticeable effect on the polls? I know it doesn't normally have a major effect, but I'd think the one from Friday would carry more weight than usual.
Click to expand...
Considering the simultaneity of the debate and employment report, I don't know that we'll be able to infer an effect. That's requesting a lot from what are effectively slight variations in the polls.
Diablos said:
Jackson50: Why would they pick such a high number then? They must have their reasons.

markatisu, I wasn't worrying. Just because my post does not bleed blind optimism does not = worrying.

Also, why does anyone take We Ask America seriously? They seem like a clown pollster, bro. They shouldn't even be in the RCP average imo.
Click to expand...
I'm not sure. Once you approach a certain threshold, the gains in certainty from a larger sample size are marginal. So firms usually elect not to waste the resources.
 
O

Officerrob

Banned
So to translate PPP's tweets: Obama got hammered while Romney was felated by the media Thursday which effected Friday's polling. Come Saturday, people were over it and back to preferring Obama.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
So basically depending on the day's events (say, on November 5th or 6th), Obama can lose the state. I don't see how that's good news for Obama
 
G

giga

Member
Flve+


DOOMED
 
T

Trakdown

Member
So Romney did good for one night and had good polls for one night. Lolz.

Even better, he just turned his back on a bunch of his positions and lied his ass off for nothing.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Trakdown said:
So Romney did good for one night and had good polls for one night. Lolz.

Even better, he just turned his back on a bunch of his positions and lied his ass off for nothing.
Click to expand...

It wasn't for nothing: Obama got a ton of great campaign ad material. Score!
 
D

Diablos

Member
They better be cooking up some ads like some GOPers think the White House is cooking up UE data.

They only have about $1b to play with.
 
T

teh_pwn

"Saturated fat causes heart disease as much as Brawndo is what plants crave."
Diablos said:
Holy shit.

Obama can barf on himself for 90 minutes and get away with it. I tip my fucking hat.


This probably would have happened regardless given the bounce is what was previously anticipated...
Click to expand...

Now you can continue to be worried about the House and the filibuster like the rest of us.
 
H

Half and half

Member
Trakdown said:
So Romney did good for one night and had good polls for one night. Lolz.

Even better, he just turned his back on a bunch of his positions and lied his ass off for nothing.
Click to expand...

I predict Romney's next morph will be into a compassionate, caring person with many stories about his great empathy.
 
A

Averon

Member
Like I said before, people have already made up their minds on who to vote for. You can say Romney won the debate and still vote against him.
 
T

teh_pwn

"Saturated fat causes heart disease as much as Brawndo is what plants crave."
Half and half said:
I predict Romney's next morph will be into a compassionate, caring person with many stories about his great empathy.
Click to expand...

I love Romney's "I care" mode. It's like a mixture of sadness and annoyance.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Diablos said:
Obama can barf on himself for 90 minutes and get away with it. I tip my fucking hat.
Click to expand...

I don't know why everybody can say "only an idiot would care about Romney winning those debates so it's going to make a huge difference for him." The evidence of this whole cycle is that people are paying more attention to the things candidates actually say. Horrifying and unprecedented, I know.
 
T

The Librarian

Banned
Speaking of early voting, how long does it take for you to get an absentee ballot in NC? I remember them being very fast for the midterms, and I still haven't gotten mine yet.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Jackson50 said:
And as the new Virginia poll also indicates, Romney was unable to overcome Obama's lead.
xSM17.gif
Click to expand...
Dat 47% ceiling. Poor Romney can't shatter it in any swing state.

Also I'm pretty sure Obama's gonna clean Mitt's clock in next debate unless another Mitt shows up.
 
D

Diablos

Member
RustyNails said:
Dat 47% ceiling. Poor Romney can't shatter it in any swing state.

Also I'm pretty sure Obama's gonna clean Mitt's clock in next debate unless another Mitt shows up.
Click to expand...
If Obama and his peeps are smart they'll be bracing for Mitt to shapeshift back into one of his other 50,000 clones.

I'm certainly expecting it.
 
T

teiresias

Member
giga said:
Flve+


DOOMED
Click to expand...

This makes me want pollsters to break down their "who won" question. I mean, if he "won" by that margin but only splitting the questioned independents, it seems to me it would be worth finding out how people define "won." Are these people who are as cynical as everyone else and define "won" as "appeared to win in an 'optics' way of winning" or do they actually agree with the policy's presented and hence say he "won"?

I mean, obviously I'd say Mittens "won" the debate in terms of just looking like he won, but certainly don't give any credence to anything he said and he certainly wouldn't be getting a vote from me. So trying to determine anything based on a simple "who won" poll (particularly the insta-polls right after the debates) seems silly.
 
D

Diablos

Member
Obama lost the debate plain and simple. The important question is if it made people abandon ship. So far the answer seems to be a huge no.

So it's like their favorite team lost but they aren't fair weather fans and will stick around no matter what.
Maybe living among Steelers fans is what makes me worry about this kind of stuff more than usual ;)
 
J

Jackson50

Member
Aaron Strife said:
Fucking told you ninnies. Bow before your new god.

Romney's debate bounce lasted all of a day.
Click to expand...
More like bow to the thread.
Trakdown said:
So Romney did good for one night and had good polls for one night. Lolz.

Even better, he just turned his back on a bunch of his positions and lied his ass off for nothing.
Click to expand...
Romney made the prudent play. He had nothing to lose, really. But his deficit was too large.
Diablos said:
No matter what I don't think the House is flipping.

Best we can hope for is like 51 Dems in the Senate.
Click to expand...
The Democrats are polling surprisingly strong in Senate elections. The prospects for them to maintain their margin, or even gain a seat, are pretty damn good. The House is largely a toss up.
 
O

Officerrob

Banned
teiresias said:
This makes me want pollsters to break down their "who won" question. I mean, if he "won" by that margin but only splitting the questioned independents, it seems to me it would be worth finding out how people define "won." Are these people who are as cynical as everyone else and define "won" as "appeared to win in an 'optics' way of winning" or do they actually agree with the policy's presented and hence say he "won"?

I mean, obviously I'd say Mittens "won" the debate in terms of just looking like he won, but certainly don't give any credence to anything he said and he certainly wouldn't be getting a vote from me. So trying to determine anything based on a simple "who won" poll (particularly the insta-polls right after the debates) seems silly.
Click to expand...

Winning a debate has nothing to do with agreeing with policies and everything to do with confidence, body language, ability to look like you believe what you're saying, and perceptions. I'm a Virginia voter and can say without a doubt, Romney won that debate, but there is no way I'm voting for him.
 
T

Trakdown

Member
So as for the Ryan-Biden debate (not that I think it's gonna affect the race), I'm thinking we're going to have a repeat of both the last debate and Ryan's speech at the RNC. He'll win slightly and then get fact-checked to death. 1 night bounce, if even that d/t it being a VP debate.
 
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