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[The Librarian]

The House is largely a toss up.

What makes you say that?

 

[B-Dubs]

So as for the Ryan-Biden debate (not that I think it's gonna affect the race), I'm thinking we're going to have a repeat of both the last debate and Ryan's speech at the RNC. He'll win slightly and then get fact-checked to death. 1 night bounce, if even that d/t it being a VP debate.

I dunno, unchained Biden can be brutal.

 

[teiresias]

Winning a debate has nothing to do with agreeing with policies and everything to do with confidence, body language, ability to look like you believe what you're saying, and perceptions. I'm a Virginia voter and can say without a doubt, Romney won that debate, but there is no way I'm voting for him.

Obviously I know this, but I think it's just obviously a take-away that some of the more . . . shall we say . . . excitable . . . members of poligaf need to take away. That just because someone "wins" a debate, nowadays debates are much more about optics than the actual policy being presented, and therefore may influence polls much less. Granted, anyone that's an undecided at this point is low information enough that their grasp and understanding of policy is probably questionable to begin with.

 

[Byakuya769]

How do you figure out how much you can win on intrade? Going to put some on Gary Johnson.

 

[SmokeMaxX]

How do you figure out how much you can win on intrade? Going to put some on Gary Johnson.

10x number of shares is how much u will get back. Subtract costs to get profit

 

[Tim-E]

I have a feeling that we're going to see unchained Biden on Thursday. The base wants someone to play offense? Biden is pretty damn good at that.

Whether or not it ends up with him "winning" the debate remains to be seen, but the base will eat it up.

 

[Zabka]

Ryan's a bit of a peckerhead. If Joe can stay loose, get in some jabs, and not say something harmful about the current administration then I think he'll come out "winning" it.

The most important thing is to look like you know what you're talking about.

 

[Diablos]

Joe just has to be careful he doesn't get too wrapped up in whatever point he's making and say something really stupid.

 

[MasterShotgun]

I think we all can guess how Ryan will perform, so it all depends on Biden. If he wants to come hard, Ryan better look out. I'd love for him to go all-out, but he might lose appearance points that way. Carefully targeted jabs and actually responding to any of Ryan's bullshit will do the trick.

 

[XenodudeX]

I always pegged Biden as a no bullshit type of person. Hopefully we will see that on Thursday.

 

[Aaron Strife]

What makes you say that?

Probably based on Dems' strong showings in the generic ballot and their own internals. If Obama's putting up 2008 numbers that might translate downticket.

 

[Jackson50]

What makes you say that?

The generic House polls display a small lead for Democrats. So presuming a modest incumbent/redistricting advantage for Republicans, the race is effectively is a toss up.

 

[Stinkles]

Ryan's a bit of a peckerhead. If Joe can stay loose, get in some jabs, and not say something harmful about the current administration then I think he'll come out "winning" it.

The most important thing is to look like you know what you're talking about.

OT 5 Pollsters, Pugilists, Pollyannas and Polygamists.

 

[Tim-E]

I don't think the VP debate will impact anything, so I just want to see Biden be an asshole to Ryan for 90 minutes.

 

[Byakuya769]

10x number of shares is how much u will get back. Subtract costs to get profit

Thanks!

 

[Clevinger]

The most important thing is to look like you know what you're talking about.

That will be hard for Biden. Because even if he does know what he's talking about, he has verbal stumbles all the time. Even just reading a speech off a teleprompter, he messes/mixes up a lot. Dude's getting old.

 

[Officerrob]

Future bright for Virginia Dems- voters under 45 prefer Obama 59-38. 55-43 Romney lead with seniors keeping it close:

Virginia won't be a swing state for long

 

[Tim-E]

Fuck the haters, Biden is awesome.

 

[Diablos]

Virginia won't be a swing state for long

sheeeeeeeeeeit

 

[Owzers]

i hope they unskew these new polls to accurately reflect Romney's debate victory over the entire liberal agenda.

 

[sc0la]

OT 5 Pollsters, Pugilists, Pollyannas and Polygamists.

Prophets, Pornstars, Pancakes and Pistol-whips

 

[Loudninja]

Obama leads Romney 52-44 with women while keeping things about equal with men, trailing Romney just 49-48. Romney's up 57-40 with white voters, but would need to win them by a lot more than that to overcome Obama's 90-8 lead with African Americans and 59-34 advantage with other nonwhite voters. The future is looking bright for Democrats in Virginia with voters under 45 supporting Obama 59-38. The race is only close overall because of a 55-43 advantage for Romney with seniors.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/obama-leads-by-3-in-virginia.html

Now that is a ouch.

 

[Officerrob]

GREAT senate news:

We'll have Senate numbers for VA and WI tomorrow. Dem candidates outrunning Obama in both states

 

[Hobbestetrician]

I said it in the VP debate thread but I really want Biden to literally 'son' Ryan during the debate.

 

[Black Republican]

huge moment for gay community if tammy wins

 

[ISOM]

I said it in the VP debate thread but I really want Biden to literally 'son' Ryan during the debate.

lol it would be hilarious if biden said "listen son" to ryan.

 

[pigeon]

That will be hard for Biden. Because even if he does know what he's talking about, he has verbal stumbles all the time. Even just reading a speech off a teleprompter, he messes/mixes up a lot. Dude's getting old.

Biden's just the opposite of Obama -- even on a teleprompter he sounds like he's speaking off the cuff. And he hates to make anything sound simple or unimportant, which makes him sound pretty rambly sometimes. I hate to be confident after last week, but I feel like Biden's going to wake some people up. He's the debater Newt Gingrich wishes he was.

edit: Biden has more experience debating in the last five years than Paul Ryan has had in his entire career.

 

[B-Dubs]

lol it would be hilarious if biden said "listen son" to ryan.

He'll probably do it by accident then just go with it.

 

[Byakuya769]

With Dem senate candidates outpacing Obama, is it a little probable that his sleep-walking debate routine turned off some people who will be easily swayed back to him?

 

[teiresias]

GREAT senate news:

This is good to hear. The Senate race has been running very close the whole way, and I really will be exceedingly annoyed if George "Macaca" Allen gets back into Congress in any capacity.

 

[Trakdown]

With Dem senate candidates outpacing Obama, is it a little probable that his sleep-walking debate routine turned off some people who will be easily swayed back to him?

If they aren't back already, sure. I doubt he turned off people enough to lose their vote completely.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

GREAT senate news:

Especially VA, that race was tied for so long and Kaine did a horrible debate performance.

 

[-PXG-]

mock if old

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cPgfzknYd20&feature=share

EDIT

OH SHIIIIIIIII!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bxch-yi14BE&feature=related

 

[Zabka]

OT 5 Pollsters, Pugilists, Pollyannas and Polygamists.

I'm not gonna lie, the idea of Biden and Ryan's debate breaking down into a fistfight makes me feel all tingly.

 

[Paches]

I'm not gonna lie, the idea of Biden and Ryan's debate breaking down into a fistfight makes me feel all tingly.

How I imagine it:

 

[eBay Huckster]

oh man, i just realized i'm actually going to be able to get away with skipping a class tuesday afternoon to go see obama on the oval at OSU.

and then i have an econ midterm. and then the vp debate's going to happen.

i can already tell that day's going to be a clusterfuck of mood whiplash

 

[The Librarian]

We need a PoliGAF twitter.

 

[eBay Huckster]

We need a PoliGAF twitter.

particularly for diablos's posting, jesus christ. dude's already on pace for ~1400 posts in this thread alone

 

[The Librarian]

I don't even know what we'd tweet about, but we need one.

 

[Paches]

oh man, i just realized i'm actually going to be able to get away with skipping a class tuesday afternoon to go see obama on the oval at THE OSU.

and then i have an econ midterm. and then the vp debate's going to happen.

i can already tell that day's going to be a clusterfuck of mood whiplash

Fixed.

Also take some pictures for us!

 

[Tim-E]

I'm not gonna lie, the idea of Biden and Ryan's debate breaking down into a fistfight makes me feel all tingly.

I don't think Ryan's P90x workouts are enough to prepare for Biden's dirty street brawler skills.

 

[Zabka]

How I imagine it:

http://24.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m5bexwRuQE1qa3pzko1_1280.png[IMG][/QUOTE]

Close but I was picturing an overhand right, a big smile on Biden's face, and oversized trunks with "Diamond Joe Biden" written on them. Also Paul Ryan is dressed like Mitch Buchanan. jacket and all.

 

[Tim-E]

I don't even know what we'd tweet about, but we need one.

If nothing else, we could make a poligaf twitter list. Twitter is popular among politics nerds, so I bet a number of us have them. I think I already follow a few of you.

 

[B-Dubs]

I don't even know what we'd tweet about, but we need one.

We could tweet troll posts.

 

[RDreamer]

I don't think the VP debate will impact anything, so I just want to see Biden be an asshole to Ryan for 90 minutes.

This.

I want him to verbally fuck up Ryan. Definitely not getting my hopes up, but I really want to see the GOP golden boy get owned by the guy characterized as a gaffe machine. God it would be delicious.

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

We could tweet troll posts.

So a direct feed from the thread, then

 

[Officerrob]

We could tweet troll posts.

Doesn't PD already have a twitter?

 

[eBay Huckster]

Fixed.

Also take some pictures for us!

assuming i can get up close! i get out of another class just half an hour beforehand and i don't think that's going to be enough time

 

[RDreamer]

With Dem senate candidates outpacing Obama, is it a little probable that his sleep-walking debate routine turned off some people who will be easily swayed back to him?

That's precisely what I said about Wisconsin. Baldwin's polling higher than Obama now. I highly doubt that stays. They'll be pulled back, or at least I think they can easily be pulled back.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

I am pretty sure that in 2008 the VP debate had higher viewers than the first Presidential Debate. So, I wouldn't say inconsequential. Biden has a brilliant opportunity to tie Romney to Ryan and house Republicans.