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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.

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AniHawk

Member
What is the confidence level that the electoral college will hold up? Specifically OH, IA, and NV? I know early voting in the first two is a large benefit but will it hold up? I know all this 'fundamentals of electoral college' and 'Romney is rallying in Ohio' stuff I am seeing is just the media being the media for the most part (and, if anything, it's not moving to being an advantage to Romney, just less of a disadvantage) and that tonight can have a big impact but I guess I just need someone to tell me that this firewall is still holding and is likely to hold through the election.

well the latest ppp in ohio had obama up 5, with 76% of early voters breaking for him, out of 20% who have already voted. i think last count there were 800k-1m votes cast in ohio so far.

those are pretty strong numbers.

in iowa there were over 200k votes cast last week, which is roughly 20% of the 1.1-1.2m votes cast for the 2008 election.
 
I'll be so disappointed if Florida ends up for Romney. This state fucks up a lot, but we ended up going blue in 2008. Hope it stays that way.

So many people I know seem to be voting for Romney because Obama "didn't get anything done." So frustrating...

Yeah, I'm fairly certain FL will go to Romney. They voted in Rick Scott. The dapper Mormon guy will do better than the colored fellow.
 

teiresias

Member
It wasn't just enthusiasm/energy but his lack of wanting to discredit the blantant lies. Everything from the $716b Medicare Ryan talking point, to $90b in green programs, Romneycare being fundamentally different than Obamacare, having a similar view on Social Security (wtf), etc. Obama can be cool and calm but he can't do so to the point where his opponent is permitted to lie his ass of and walk through his platform with little opposition for an hour and a half.

True, someone posted part of the town hall a bit earlier. I mean, in the town hall debate in '08 Obama shot down McCain over his "bomb, bomb, bomb Iran" and that was extremely awkward for McCain because the exchange went something like this.

Obama: Now, my opponent will say he's more versed in the issues and has more experience in foreign policy . . .

McCain: *snicker* Well thank you, *snicker* thank you very . . .

Obama: . . . but this is the man who sang "bomb bomb Iran."

McCain: *snick . . . oh shit expression*

I also think the town hall is a bit easier in that the candidates should be engaged with the audience member asking the question or just the audience in general, whereas in the traditional podium debates you get that whole media story of "Candidate X isn't looking at Candidate Y. Candidate X is looking at his notes too much" etc. where they have to engage both the opponent and the camera (in order to engage the tv watching audience).
 

Diablos

Member
I'll be so disappointed if Florida ends up for Romney. This state fucks up a lot, but we ended up going blue in 2008. Hope it stays that way.

So many people I know seem to be voting for Romney because Obama "didn't get anything done." So frustrating...
Your state elected Rick Scott so nothing will surprise me.
 

Averon

Member
I think election night is going to be fun. I'm expecting a collective pants shitting/meltdown when NH gets called early for Romney. Chris Mathews will probably have an on air aneurysm. After about an hour of doom saying, OH/MI/WI/PA will all be called for Obama bringing everyone back from the ledge. Shortly after, FL/NC/VA all got called for Romney, once again throwing liberals into a panic. Finally, IA and NV get called for Obama, prompting a huge sigh of relief. Should be a helluva roller coaster ride.

Are you from the future? I'm asking because this sounds exactly like what will likely happen on election night.
 
"Yes, I do, and like Osama Bin Laden - we will hunt these killers to the gates of hell and take them out. Now, Governor Romney, do you take responsibility for the positions you held a month ago."
Dayum. I like it.

I'm hoping for at least one or two charming bitch slaps, followed by one of Obama's micro-laughs and a wide teethy grin.
 
This thread is the single largest source of stress in my life. I'm not a stressed person. General relaxed mentality to work, bills etc etc.

The thought of a Ryan budget or a Romney led attack on social rights and the ACA has me stressed though. I even have stress knots in my back.

I'm hoping for a "perceived" tie tonight. Another week of Doom in the media narative coupled with the still absent Lakers games from FIOS would not be good for me. HA.
 
So in all honesty, how do you guys think Obama will do tonight?

In all honesty, Romney will win in the public's eyes. He will hammer Obama on Libya, despite it being in poor taste, and folks will eat up that he's "aggressive" and not "weak". Obama will do enough to give a "tie" an option but he won't dominate the debate like a lot of folks are hoping. There won't be a bounce and the narrative will continue on as is, self-fulfilling.
 

Kusagari

Member
Yeah, I'm fairly certain FL will go to Romney. They voted in Rick Scott. The dapper Mormon guy will do better than the colored fellow.

Scott barely won in an off election year in the middle of the Tea Party craze nationwide.

I think this state is still full of morons for voting him in to begin with, but he would have never won in a presidential year.

Also I've got to assume, hope, that the hatred of Scott helps Obama.
 

Loudninja

Member
In all honesty, Romney will win in the public's eyes. He will hammer Obama on Libya, despite it being in poor taste, and folks will eat up that he's "aggressive" and not "weak".

Then in two years, we'll be in Iran and folks will feel bad again.
Hah really?

Romney does not have a leg to stand on in Foreign policy.
 

HylianTom

Banned
What is the confidence level that the electoral college will hold up? Specifically OH, IA, and NV? I know early voting in the first two is a large benefit but will it hold up? I know all this 'fundamentals of electoral college' and 'Romney is rallying in Ohio' stuff I am seeing is just the media being the media for the most part (and, if anything, it's not moving to being an advantage to Romney, just less of a disadvantage) and that tonight can have a big impact but I guess I just need someone to tell me that this firewall is still holding and is likely to hold through the election.

I did a quick blurb on the Ohio situation a few pages back..

I'm doing some rough back-of-the-napkin math here.

Let's assume that PPP's poll is roughly right.

About 20% of the population has voted already.
About 80% of the population (at most) is expected to vote in this election. {This was ~66% in 2008.}

Obama won the already-voted group, 76-24. That's a 52-point lead.
In order to pull slightly ahead (assuming 80% turnout), Romney would have to win the remaining 75% of the vote by about 18%.

First quartile of vote: 76-24
Second quartile: 59-41
Third quartile: 59-41
Fourth quartile: 59-41

Results >>> 49.75% for Obama, 50.25% for Romney

And if turnout is even less, around 2008 levels, Romney would have to win by an even larger margin.

I don't see Romney making-up that kind of margin.

Ohio is looking damn good at this point.
 
In all honesty, Romney will win in the public's eyes. He will hammer Obama on Libya, despite it being in poor taste, and folks will eat up that he's "aggressive" and not "weak". Obama will do enough to give a "tie" an option but he won't dominate the debate like a lot of folks are hoping. There won't be a bounce and the narrative will continue on as is, self-fulfilling.

I agree with this assessment. Obama will try to be aggressive but Romney should keep him frustrated with Libya and the economy.
 

pigeon

Banned
In all honesty, Romney will win in the public's eyes. He will hammer Obama on Libya, despite it being in poor taste, and folks will eat up that he's "aggressive" and not "weak". Obama will do enough to give a "tie" an option but he won't dominate the debate like a lot of folks are hoping. There won't be a bounce and the narrative will continue on as is, self-fulfilling.

Americans, by huge margins, don't want to go back to the Middle East. That's kind of the weakness of Romney's foreign policy argument here.
 

Allard

Member
Would be like half the people asking questions tonight. They will probably have at least one senior or vet who is salty about it.

Yeah the actual questions from the audience is going to make or break this debate... that and Crowley vowing to be 'more then an audience member' (In other words follow up questions and I don't trust her to come up with reasonable follow up questions to save her own life). Anyways the questions themselves, who asked them, and how the candidates respond to them is going to make or break this debate. In all honesty a 'come back' performance for Obama is not likely with this format as gambling your answers to attack your opponent can likely backfire since the questions aren't made by a moderator but by a normal voter and they want to be told how they would do things differently, back and forth debating is not going to be well liked in this format.
 
Maybe I'm wrong but Romney strikes me as a coward, and if he's pushed hard enough he'll collapse like a house of cards. The most important factor is can Obama be aggressive enough and not come off as arrogant.
 
Americans, by huge margins, don't want to go back to the Middle East. That's kind of the weakness of Romney's foreign policy argument here.

I totally agree ... but I have this feeling Romney will have come up with some way to wallpaper over that idea and make it seem like he's not going to go racing into the Middle East. You know change positions to appeal to a certain crowd while secretly telling the base otherwise.

What's that called again?
 

markatisu

Member
Americans, by huge margins, don't want to go back to the Middle East. That's kind of the weakness of Romney's foreign policy argument here.

Exactly, Romney's ideas of the Middle East are only good for the GOP, Indies and DEMS do not want to go into anymore conflicts or wars.
 

AlteredBeast

Fork 'em, Sparky!
Maybe I'm wrong but Romney strikes me as a coward, and if he's pushed hard enough he'll collapse like a house of cards. The most important factor is can Obama be aggressive enough and not come off as arrogant.

Doubtful. angry black man or angry white man. Nobody wants to see someone tearing another person down. They don't react well to when romney does it to Obama, either. It really is when one of the candidates passionately proposing their ideas that people swoon, whether they are good plans or not.
 

norinrad

Member
In all honesty, Romney will win in the public's eyes. He will hammer Obama on Libya, despite it being in poor taste, and folks will eat up that he's "aggressive" and not "weak". Obama will do enough to give a "tie" an option but he won't dominate the debate like a lot of folks are hoping. There won't be a bounce and the narrative will continue on as is, self-fulfilling.

I hate to say this, but Obama might end up standing there looking at his shoes again. He needs to take off the gloves and hammer that bully.

Who am i kidding? He's just like me, non confrontation, He avoids it like the plague just like i do
 

AniHawk

Member
In all honesty, Romney will win in the public's eyes. He will hammer Obama on Libya, despite it being in poor taste, and folks will eat up that he's "aggressive" and not "weak". Obama will do enough to give a "tie" an option but he won't dominate the debate like a lot of folks are hoping. There won't be a bounce and the narrative will continue on as is, self-fulfilling.

i think obama will be easier to relate with people. the problem mccain had was that he appeared as an angry old man while obama remained cool and collected.

the biggest problem obama had in the first debate was how he just kept looking down whenever it wasn't his turn, and not responding to outright lies.

the guy also has some energy in him. you see it on the campaign trail. he needs to channel a little bit of that and he'll be okay.
 
Again, a messaging failure. Ryan's budget was allegedly going to be a boon for house victories. Now...not so much
I feel like most Democrats gave up on the House from the outset and decided to focus on the White House and Senate. It's still possible but pretty unlikely.

There's a lot of low-hanging fruit (MN-8, the New Hampshire seats, several in Illinois, Florida, Texas, and California) but they're handicapped by their losses in places like NC and having to shed seats in places like Massachusetts. The House race will probably revert to something of a neutral environment, with a slim Republican majority and we'll see what's competitive in two years.
 
Perhaps a bright spot for today's polling could be that Gallup's LV model seems whiter than it was in 08. If OFA can get Latinas and blacks to flood the polls, especially in Colorado and Virginia, we could see quite a surprise

The conservative reaction would be glorious btw
 
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