eBay Huckster
Member
i'd wait until friday to see if there was any effect, personally
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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.
- Thread starter Amir0x
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Black Mamba
Member
I was hoping there could be one more day of uptick in RAND. 4 straight days of moving up.
But I suppose Romney total bounce is gone from the system and so things are leveling off. edit: one positive in RAND is Florida/Ohio voters stopped switching to Romney and back to Obama (thought small amounts regardless).
Tomorrow won't have any debate polls in it but it would be nice if Gallup finally moves as a result of the debate. Just to drive the narrative back.
Was about to say, we won't really be seeing much in daily tracking polls since the debate just happened basically.
Even I know this, lolz. Hopefully the Gallup LV model gets an uptick at 1, though.
NullPointer
Member
lol. Pure fucking gold, right there.
edit: Obama droppd 1 in Rand
Back to Obama +4
angry black man strikes again
Black Mamba
Member
This is all pre-debate. No one gets polled at 11pm at night.
eBay Huckster
Member
old poll yells at cloud
(this would've been better if I'd posted it immediately after that joke of a USA Today poll)
(this would've been better if I'd posted it immediately after that joke of a USA Today poll)
My mind is full of fuck.
I'm looking forward to swing state polls about a week from now.
Right now, here's about where I have the race:
Wisconsin: leans Obama
Ohio: leans Obama
Iowa: leans Obama
Nevada: leans Obama
New Hampshire: toss-up
Colorado: toss-up
Virginia: toss-up
Florida: leans Romney
North Carolina: leans Romney
If the needle moves toward Obama, then this race is over, barring some horrible incident or a debate #3 debacle. If the needle stays where it is, Obama is still considerably favored.
At the bare minimum, I think Obama prevented things from moving further away from him and energized left-leaning voters. And that's all he needed, really.. which reinforces just how remarkably hostile the Electoral Map math is for Republicans.
ice in my veins..
Right now, here's about where I have the race:
Wisconsin: leans Obama
Ohio: leans Obama
Iowa: leans Obama
Nevada: leans Obama
New Hampshire: toss-up
Colorado: toss-up
Virginia: toss-up
Florida: leans Romney
North Carolina: leans Romney
If the needle moves toward Obama, then this race is over, barring some horrible incident or a debate #3 debacle. If the needle stays where it is, Obama is still considerably favored.
At the bare minimum, I think Obama prevented things from moving further away from him and energized left-leaning voters. And that's all he needed, really.. which reinforces just how remarkably hostile the Electoral Map math is for Republicans.
ice in my veins..
for some reason i'm more optimistic about virginia than colorado. the difference in votes was nearly the same in 2008, but it seems like virginia has shifted over far less than colorado.
i think colorado will go blue after tonight, though. nc is probably a no-go, and florida is a tossup. that 303 number sounds about right.
eBay Huckster
Member
i'm still holding out for 347, comically unlikely as it seems now
i'll settle for 332 i guess
though really this just reinforces that florida's gotten pretty damn irrelevant relative to 2000 and 2004 (and that NC isn't really relevant in the first place).
i'll settle for 332 i guess
though really this just reinforces that florida's gotten pretty damn irrelevant relative to 2000 and 2004 (and that NC isn't really relevant in the first place).
I'm having trouble with both of them, honestly. One day, I'll feel good about one or the other or both, the next day I'll change my mind. Not like my constantly confident feelings on IA/NV/OH.
I hope Virginia stays blue.. an early Election Night would be fantastic.
Black Mamba
Member
Despite cries by Jamessinclair, Obama locked in California tonight. I'm certain of it.
Quote me on it.
Quote me on it.
eBay Huckster
Member
i'm planning on throwing an election night drinking party and i have no idea what the criteria should be for drinking.
maybe "VA stays blue, take a shot", "NC stays blue, take a shot", "Ohio 'too close to call', take two shots", "pundit starts claiming NV/IA/NH might go Romney, chug until they stop talking"
I'm imagining an election where California is the swing state to end it all. That would be a really late night. And if there's a recount?!
You could do "Swing State Goes Blue >> Good Shot" / "Swing State Goes Red >> Bad Shot"
..and "Carville says something Cajuny or assinine >> finish drink."
man it was so awesome actually being in california when obama won. i cut school early that night (it was a 6-10 pm class) so i could watch the results with my parents. the moment it hit 8, it was over.
i also remember posting here on neogaf as the 2004 results rolled in. teenage me didn't really have as firm a grasp on things and boy that was a rough night.
eBay Huckster
Member
You could do "Swing State Goes Blue >> Good Shot" / "Swing State Goes Red >> Bad Shot"
..and "Carville says something Cajuny or assinine >> finish drink."
yeah i'm basically trying to maximize "shots taken because of dumb and/or disingenuous people on news channels" here
Mmm.. chills. Political theatre.
Time for bed. I start a 12 hour shift in four hours. Too damn pumped-up.
Dominican Power
Member
You dudes are political junkies, I swear.
ClassyPenguin
Banned
I need Empty Vessels powers.
"Proceed, Governor."
That entire Libya exchange between Romney, Obama, and Crowley was incredible. You can tell Romney was prepared to mention Obama's Rose Garden remarks and was giddy thinking he caught Obama in a lie. "Think of the political damage Obama would receive in front of 60 million people!", Romney probably thought. Then all of a sudden it went incredibly wrong for him with both Crowley and Obama tag teaming him with facts and the crowd even getting into it. Romney took Obama's most vulnerable FP issue and turned it around to Obama's benefit in front of 60 million people, with the added effect of de-legitimizing himself on Libya at the same time. It might end up as the defining moment in the 2012 campaign.
Romney took his strongest weapon for the final debate and shat on it. As I said, incredible.
That entire Libya exchange between Romney, Obama, and Crowley was incredible. You can tell Romney was prepared to mention Obama's Rose Garden remarks and was giddy thinking he caught Obama in a lie. "Think of the political damage Obama would receive in front of 60 million people!", Romney probably thought. Then all of a sudden it went incredibly wrong for him with both Crowley and Obama tag teaming him with facts and the crowd even getting into it. Romney took Obama's most vulnerable FP issue and turned it around to Obama's benefit in front of 60 million people, with the added effect of de-legitimizing himself on Libya at the same time. It might end up as the defining moment in the 2012 campaign.
Romney took his strongest weapon for the final debate and shat on it. As I said, incredible.
This. I have a feeling "Proceed, Governor" will become a meme to indicate people to feel free to self-destruct while you are watching with a smile.
I can't even keep the "Bad news for Obama" going after a glorious debate.
SouthernDragon
Member
Say it louder
IrishNinja
Member
you have no idea how nice it is to not hear my homestate as deciding the election, man. no idea.
still trying to find a good election night drinking party over here too!
anonymous_abc
Member
The Chosen One
Member
That exchange will definitely go down into debate lore.
It was the very definition of a rope-a-dope. It was a question designed to put Obama on his heels and allow Romney to land strong body blows. But instead Romney started throwing wild punches allowing Obama to jab him hard with his second exchange. But Romney still pressed on recklessly and when Obama said, "Please proceed, governor" he thought he had Obama cornered, then...BOOM! Romney found himself on the canvas and all he could do was stutter in a daze of confusion.
Credit goes to Candy for showcasing a glimmer of real journalism. Instead of having the candidates doing a "He said, she said" which leaves the viewers confused on the truth, she did some real-time fact checking. If moderators/journalist did this more often, maybe these candidates wouldn't be so brazen to tell blatant lies in interviews/debates. Romney was clearly flustered when he was called out like that because usually he can just tell lies/misstatements while his campaign quietly cleans it up a few days later.
And others have pointed out, the Libya attack line will now be significantly neutered. Republicans may still try to use it, but it will just remind everyone of the flub.
The Librarian
Banned
polyh3dron
Banned
Oh my fucking god you will not let this go will you.
They obv have a better marri-- wait what's that? ...never mind.
polyh3dron
Banned
Wow so I'm listening to Joe Scarborough talking about last night's debate. So when the first one happened he was wondering what happened to Obama, why he didn't fire back while Romney lied through his teeth. Now Obama fires back and all of a sudden he's alarmed at the negative tone with all the bickering.
teruterubozu
Member
Holy fuck was that debate boring, I fell asleep about an hour in. Obama seems to do well when things are boring. Let's keep it boring.
Can't believe romney still lets john sununu represent him on TV
Am I just paranoid?
Repubs accuse Dems of voter fraud but get busted with voter registration tampering.
They accuse the Dems of poll tampering now Romney is supposedly tied or above Obama
Are they poll tampering? Sampling mostly Repubs?
The only people on MSNBC that still defends Obama is Mika and Al Sharpton
Did the word come down from the top to downplay anything Obama says or does now? Romney did not whup Obama in the first debate. You win by default if the other guy does not show up or put in an effort. Not Obama slams Romney and they call it a tie.
What kind of Bizarro world is this?
Repubs accuse Dems of voter fraud but get busted with voter registration tampering.
They accuse the Dems of poll tampering now Romney is supposedly tied or above Obama
Are they poll tampering? Sampling mostly Repubs?
The only people on MSNBC that still defends Obama is Mika and Al Sharpton
Did the word come down from the top to downplay anything Obama says or does now? Romney did not whup Obama in the first debate. You win by default if the other guy does not show up or put in an effort. Not Obama slams Romney and they call it a tie.
What kind of Bizarro world is this?
On retrospect, one reason why that "Please proceed, Governor" moment worked so well is because asking your opponent a question is a tactic intending to trip up your opponent and to make it seem like you're in control. Romney did it a lot in the last debate, making him look confident.
So Romney tries it again, thinking he'll get great results. Then Obama says it, and Romney looks so awkward. He stumbles verbally and physically, and then goes on with his prepared talking points. Like, "Wait, you were supposed to look really weak right there. What happened?" You can see how badly Romney does when things don't go as his super rehearsed version was assuming it would.
So Romney tries it again, thinking he'll get great results. Then Obama says it, and Romney looks so awkward. He stumbles verbally and physically, and then goes on with his prepared talking points. Like, "Wait, you were supposed to look really weak right there. What happened?" You can see how badly Romney does when things don't go as his super rehearsed version was assuming it would.
tekneek2k6
Member
She completely owned Sununu. He had no answers for direct quotes from the transcript of Obama's statement. It was apparent that he wasn't even familiar with the actual contents of the statement.
Rove-ian tactics, take an apparent weakness of your candidate/party and attribute it to your opposition. That's how you get the idea that Dems want to cut Medicare while the GOP are suddenly staunch defenders.
Black Republican
Member
Romney must be pissed his Obama investments in China moment didnt go off smoothly
And regarding the Libya thing, I think the GOP is missing the forest for the trees here. They're getting too caught up in the details most that people don't care about. Obama pretty much already admitted to fucking up and took responsibility for it, even from Hilary. The two weeks thing isn't what matters when the POTUS looked sincere in how it affected him and how he'd vow to make it right, that's the detail that matters.
They just look petty in their attempts to make him look weak on this, and that's why Romney and the GOP got beat down, regardless of his flub.
They just look petty in their attempts to make him look weak on this, and that's why Romney and the GOP got beat down, regardless of his flub.
You, my friend, have encountered the Liberal Media.
Good morning!
New Nevada polling out this morning, for your consideration.
Obama: 48
Romney: 45
http://www.8newsnow.com/story/19836...ada?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
This was taken between the two debates, when Romney was doing "well" in the polls. Seems like Nevada is ours.
New Nevada polling out this morning, for your consideration.
Obama: 48
Romney: 45
http://www.8newsnow.com/story/19836...ada?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
This was taken between the two debates, when Romney was doing "well" in the polls. Seems like Nevada is ours.
Vicetrailia
Member
It's interesting just how much more Obama perform, embody and represent just to achieve the same thing. But I guess the media makes more money if the race is close, just makes sense I guess.
Suikoguy
I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
That Gallup LV Regional Poll really did explain much.
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