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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.

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B

Black Mamba

Member
AlteredBeast said:
Re: that outlier Nate Silver comment. Wouldn't the Obama +3 also be considered an outlier? Obviously not as much, but the swing is definitely outside of the norm and the standard deviation of the rest of the polls.
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Reuters tipps and rand have all shown swings to Obama on average over three.

The average lead among those is over 3.
 
E

Ecotic

Member
The rational explanation is that Wisconsin was feeling pride in their 'favorite son' Paul Ryan after the VP debate. That passion will probably fade in a week back to +3 where Obama has been in Wisconsin recently, and hopefully will move up thanks to last night's debate.
 
R

reilo

learning some important life lessons from magical Negroes
AlteredBeast said:
Re: that outlier Nate Silver comment. Wouldn't the Obama +3 also be considered an outlier? Obviously not as much, but the swing is definitely outside of the norm and the standard deviation of the rest of the polls.
Click to expand...

Not when there's several other polls that are out at the same time giving him a +2-3.
 
T

titiklabingapat

Member
Even great pollsters with great track records have outliers. If they don't, it must mean they are doing something wrong with their methodology. I'm with PD on this one, WI has been incredibly stable, and if this is Romney's peak then even better.

The movement with the senate race seems to indicate that this one over-sampled GOP party identification a little bit which bucks the trend of the senate races largely unaffected by Obama's first debate flub although I hven't seen the internals yet.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
AlteredBeast said:
Re: that outlier Nate Silver comment. Wouldn't the Obama +3 also be considered an outlier? Obviously not as much, but the swing is definitely outside of the norm and the standard deviation of the rest of the polls.
Click to expand...

If you read the article he posted just today, he notes that the tracking polls are basically evenly divided between a small Obama lead and a small Romney lead.
 
E

electricpirate

Member
Loudninja said:
I am done here.

Every day at the same time the same stuff.
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Seriously, a single poll isn't some crazy reason to flip out, nor is it a great reason to take succor. Watch the aggregrate, currently Wisconsin is hovering in the high 3 to low 4s. A one point game is well within the realm of possible sampling errors of that average.
 
R

reilo

learning some important life lessons from magical Negroes
AlteredBeast said:
Just by viewing that image, it didn't seem to be the case. My apologies.
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Yeah, and plus, the polls in that image that have Obama down 1 point are quite old (by national poll standards) and there is more than one poll with him being up +2-3, with the other most recent being Rasmussen, which, you know, it's Ras.
 
B

Brinbe

Member
From what I've read, it's about the same as last debate. And those fretting about WI
http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/entertainment/174602041.html

An audience of about 293,000 Milwaukee households watched Tuesday night's town hall format debate between President Obama and Mitt Romney.

That number was up 43,000 households from the first debate. The increase is likely due to heightened interest in the event to see if and how Obama would rebound from his first lackluster performance.

Last night's debate average an 11.3 rating on WTMJ-TV (Channel 4), 10.3 on WISN-TV (Channel 12), 6.9 on WITI-TV (Channel 6) and 3.7 on WDJT-TV (Channel 58).

A local rating point is the equivalent of 9,100 households.By comparison 473,000 households watched Sunday night's Green Bay Packers game.

According to preliminary national numbers: During the first hour NBC's debate coverage averaged 12.8 million viewers; ABC's debate coverage averaged 11.76 million viewers; CBS averaged 8.6 million viewers and FOX averaged 4.08 million viewers. In the second hour, NBC averaged 11.4 million, ABC, 10.1 million, and CBS averaged a 7.8 million.
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R

RDreamer

Member
<3 Chris Hayes

I thought the moment of the oil drilling, that debate to me was a key moment. The reason was this. Mitt Romney asked the president a direct question numerous times, kept interrupting him, “Isn’t it true? Isn’t it true? Didn’t it go down?” Now the rules for the debate, that we all got leaked, number five, subsection E: “The candidates may not ask each other direct questions during any of the four debates.”

Now, at a certain level, who cares, right? Who cares? Here’s why I care. The theme of the last ten years of this country is the people at the top have felt the rules don’t apply to them. And you send your people to sit down and negotiate a set of rules, and 20 minutes into it you throw it out the window. And everything we’ve seen, from the financial crisis to everything else that’s happened in this country, has been about the oligarchs and the ruling class and the people at the top feeling that they are not a party to the social contract. So some stupid little contract that was negotiated by your people, you don’t worry about.
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S

syllogism

Member
Nate pointed out another instance of Gallup being a bit swingy and an outlier

8Lbxl.png


Have to look up what their sample size was back then though
 
M

markatisu

Member
Diablos said:
Anyone know how many people watched the debate last night?
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From tvbythenumbers
Coverage of the second Presidential Debate from 9-10:30PM earned a 4.7 adults 18-49 rating on NBC, way up from a 3.2 fast national for the first debate on Wednesday, October 3. On ABC it scored a 2.8 versus a 3.0for the first debate. CBS garnered a 2.2, down from a 3.0 for the first debate. FOX notched a 1.7 compared to a 2.8 for the first debate. In other words, people generally stayed on whatever network they were watching at 8PM to watch the debate.More accurate debate numbers will be available this afternoon.
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So with NBC's burst in viewers it was about even with the first debate, maybe even more when you add in cable
 
J

jbug617

Banned
We are suppose to be happy today. O knocked it out the park last night. He hit every single topic we wanted and not over do it to make it seemed forced.
 
M

markatisu

Member
jbug617 said:
We are suppose to be happy today. O knocked it out the park last night. He hit every single topic we wanted and not over do it to make it seemed forced.
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Well Diablos is up and around so that will always bring things down ;)

My right leaning friends are really having a hard time with last night, one went off on me today about the binder of women and tried to say at least Romney has a birth certificate lol

So the Romney train has completely derailed if birthers are coming back to explain why Romney had his ass handed to him
 
P

pigeon

Banned
AlteredBeast said:
Sour grapes. Obama went over his "2 minutes" several times. He interrupted Romney multiple times.

If they can't ask each other questions, it isn't a debate. It is a talking point spewing contest.
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Frankly, with this debate, at least, every time somebody broke a rule it made it a better debate. The CPD needs to stop letting the candidates write the rules.
 
A

AlteredBeast

Fork 'em, Sparky!
pigeon said:
Frankly, with this debate, at least, every time somebody broke a rule it made it a better debate. The CPD needs to stop letting the candidates write the rules.
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Its true. If they are going to put limits on time, I would prefer to nail them to 30 second answers. Nobody answers questions anymore, not Romney and not Obama. Make them answer by way of a severe time limit policy. Then, if a true answer is not given, the moderator should moderate and say, "You didn't answer the question, you have another 15 seconds, we trust you will answer the question this time." Then, if they don't answer again, a simple "Let the record show that the candidate dodged the question."

You want accountability and veridiction? Make the candidates answer and then MODERATE if they don't.
 
M

Mercury Fred

Banned
jbug617 said:
We are suppose to be happy today. O knocked it out the park last night. He hit every single topic we wanted and not over do it to make it seemed forced.
Click to expand...

Exactly! Quit freaking out people, and if you can't contain your nervous energy, channel it into volunteering to do phone banking or something.
 
D

Diablos

Member
RustyNails said:
Yeah, that's a red flag right there. Poll is not serious. For Romney to cut down female advantage by 20 points, Obama needs to get caught having an affair or slapping a female staffers' butt.
Click to expand...
Time will tell I suppose.

MOAR WI POLLING NOW AND POST-2ND DEBATE OMGWTF
 
N

Nazgul_Hunter

Member
I think Obama is most concerned about building up his support among women. I noticed yesterday he tried as much as possible to bring the topic back to women and they're really holding onto the binders thing. I expect that they're gonna keep focusing on driving the message that Romney / Ryan = bad for women
 
A

AlteredBeast

Fork 'em, Sparky!
Nazgul_Hunter said:
I think Obama is most concerned about building up his support among women. I noticed yesterday he tried as much as possible to bring the topic back to women and they're really holding onto the binders thing. I expect that they're gonna keep focusing on driving the message that Romney / Ryan = bad for women
Click to expand...

If they lost women, they would lose the election. Romney has men on lockdown and that won't let up with lefty McGee and the limp wrist jump shot.

Full Disclosure: I am left handed, and even I realize that left-handed people look goofy as all hell doing 90% of normal life activities.
 
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