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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.

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H

HylianTom

Banned
When the gender gap re-expands as a result of this debate, Obama will resume his narrow lead in Wisconsin. Ohio will remain his, as will Nevada and Iowa. New Hampshire will re-tilt a few points in his direction. Watch and see. This debate really helped.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
codhand said:
What in the absolute fuck
Click to expand...

After last night that will flip back. I have no doubt about it.

"What would I do to have equality in pay for women? Let them go home and cook a meal! That's just as good as money!"
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Incognito said:
have to admit i'm a little concerned that obama's debate performance hasn't swayed voters. in fact, according to gallup and others it looks as though it has had the opposite effect. this doesn't augur well for obama's hopes on election day.
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None of these polls have last night's debate in the numbers.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
What also became clear after the dust began to settle from the rumble on Long Island was the electoral map has narrowed and Obama's team, while conceding nothing publicly, is circling the wagons around Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada. Plouffe said that Obama remains strong in all four states, but he would not discuss the specifics of internal polling or voter-contact analytics, saying only that Obama has "significant leads" in all four places.

It is uncharacteristic of Team Obama to concede any terrain, but Plouffe offered no such assurances about Obama's position in North Carolina, Virginia, or Florida. Romney advisers have seen big gains in all three states and now consider wins likely, although not guaranteed, in all three. They are similarly upbeat about prospects in Colorado but not confident enough to predict victory. That Plouffe left Colorado off his list of states where Obama's leading and can withstand a Romney surge might be telling.

According to RealClearPolitics, Obama currently has 201 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win. But that doesn't give Obama electoral votes from Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (16), or Wisconsin (10). Of these three, Romney advisers believe that only one, Wisconsin, is even theoretically winnable. Obama advisers believe they will win all three. That would put Obama at 247 electoral votes. If Obama wins Ohio (18), Iowa (6), Nevada (6), and New Hampshire (4) he would claim 281 electoral votes. That means he could afford to lose New Hampshire and Nevada and still eke out a razor-thin victory of 271 electoral votes.
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Hmm..

http://www.nationaljournal.com/politics/what-s-next-in-the-obama-romney-duel-20121017
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
It's hard for me to complain or care about polls today, after that debate. I'll wait a couple days and see what happens. In two days the debate still won't really be picked up in most trackers, but I just want to see whether Romney's bump is still persisting or going down
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Y2Kev said:
Ok I feel better now

But what if he loses MICHIGAN?

I guess if he loses Wisconsin he's probably lost Ohio and we have bigger issues...
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If he loses Michigan then things are bad. But do you really think he's going to lose Detroit? There have only been four pollsters in the history of this race that have ever showed Romney leading Michigan: EPIC-MRA (which I just assumed was a men's rights group), Baydoun/Foster (of the ridiculously bad polling), We Ask America (the guys who showed Obama leading among Republicans in Ohio), and Mitchell Research. Here are there four most recent polls of Michigan:

EPIC-MRA 48-45 Obama, Oct 4-6
Baydoun/Foster 49-46 Obama, Oct 5
WeAskAmerica 52-40 Obama, Sept 25-27
Mitchell Research 47-47 even, August 23

Romney doesn't have a prayer.

edit: and apparently secret Romney insider sources agree!
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
pigeon said:
If he loses Michigan then things are bad. But do you really think he's going to lose Detroit? There have only been four pollsters in the history of this race that have ever showed Romney leading Michigan: EPIC-MRA (which I just assumed was a men's rights group), Baydoun/Foster (of the ridiculously bad polling), We Ask America (the guys who showed Obama leading among Republicans in Ohio), and Mitchell Research. Here are there four most recent polls of Michigan:

EPIC-MRA 48-45 Obama, Oct 4-6
Baydoun/Foster 49-46 Obama, Oct 5
WeAskAmerica 52-40 Obama, Sept 25-27
Mitchell Research 47-47 even, August 23

Romney doesn't have a prayer.

edit: and apparently secret Romney insider sources agree!
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Ya that was mostly a joke. But I think Obama needs to do new visits to the midwest and WE NEED MOAR POLLS
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Y2Kev said:
Ya that was mostly a joke. But I think Obama needs to do new visits to the midwest and WE NEED MOAR POLLS
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Sorry. PoliGAF has conditioned me to not be able to tell fake terror from the real thing. Which is pretty bad timing with Halloween coming up, really.
 
M

markatisu

Member
Diablos said:
Wow, that's unusual for them. Hmm. They must have some concerns.
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Really?? we are less than 30 days from the election. You would not spend extra money to double down and make sure you basically kill Romney with a death blow? Romney cannot win unless he gets one of those states, its is statistically impossible without at least one of them

SMH at you
 
B

Brinbe

Member
Y2Kev said:
Ya that was mostly a joke. But I think Obama needs to do new visits to the midwest and WE NEED MOAR POLLS
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He's in Iowa/Ohio today and tomorrow. And Clinton/Springsteen and Michelle are all out for him in places like Ohio/Wisconsin this week. He has you covered there, don't worry.

jbug617 said:
why isn't anybody talking about my Xbox poll?
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XBL users are generally younger and would go towards Bams, it's not surprising.
 
F

Forever

Banned
I'd have seriously misjudged the nature of the Midwest if Iowa and Ohio do go for Romney, a wealthy Massachusetts ultra-elitist.

The economies in those two states are relatively good too, and a big part of that is thanks to Obama policies.
 
N

NullPointer

Member
Byakuya769 said:
"They're gonna put yall back in binders." - Joe Biden
Click to expand...
iVxCGUUyluGIL.gif
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
PD dropping truth bombs

PhoenixDark said:
Which is why I shake my head at the GOP's immortal argument that when the rural, "heardland" of America votes the republicans always win. The people who decide elections don't reside in Kansas or Oklahoma and hopefully the dems will pound that fact over the next few years.

I dunno if Virginia is on its way to being a consistent blue state but the western states (CO, NM, NV) certainly are thanks to the GOP's nationalist bullshit. In class today I heard a student argue that McCain was always a maverick because many republicans didn't like him due to his consistent maverick positions." Nah, they don't like him because he had common sense opinions on immigration. And until the GOP moves away from that nationalist nonsense they'll continue to lose. I kinda (well not really) felt bad for McCain losing the Hispanic vote so bad
Click to expand...
 
M

markatisu

Member
Forever said:
I'd have seriously misjudged the nature of the Midwest if Iowa and Ohio do go for Romney, a wealthy Massachusetts ultra-elitist.

The economies in those two states are relatively good too, and a big part of that is thanks to Obama policies.
Click to expand...

Yup OH for Auto and IA for Wind, my job in fact is basically paid for by the wind manuf contract our college has because of Obama's decisions. When Romney and the GOP basically said the wind credit should die he lost a big part of the state.
 
B

Byakuya769

Member
He was right before he was wrong. Poor Candy, though. She tried so hard to get in the requisite CNN "but this side has it right, as well" before the damage was done.
 
K

Karakand

Member
TiVo said:
I going to stop watching MSNBC.
More KTALK & IHEARTRADIO and search for the keyword progressive and everyone on that station tells it like it is.
Thanks to the person on here that hipped me to that station.
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KTLK in the Southland? I love that that station and KFI (the traditional reactionary talk radio station in the same region) are both owned by Clear Channel. It's some real Pequods / QueeQuegs shit.

On the plus side, that common ownership allowed for a lot more minority-hosted programming for KTLK when John and Ken on KFI did some really stupid racist shit (as they are wont to do).
 
J

Jackson50

Member
Kevitivity said:
I'm glad BO decided to show up last night. He was def much more aggressive. However he was not as positive and friendly as Romney which I think will hurt him. Sure, the partisans are excited at his performance, but they aren't the ones who count.

I'm not surprised at all that Both the FOX and MSNBC undecided panel swung to for Romney.

To really turn things around, BO had to really knock it out of the park last night and *decimate* Romney, which didn't happen. Most are calling it a draw, even with the moderator giving a helping hand to BO. I believe Romney came across better to undecided voters.
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Me too. BO's desultory performance in the first debate, not only disappointed me as a supporter, it made for a boring night. I concur BO was more authoritative and resolute. But don't sell MR short. He was equally aggressive. However, his aggressiveness failed him. MR appeared indignant, yet a bit daft when his attacks didn't work. Also, partisans are the ones who count. Mobilizing your base is essential to electoral success. And this is especially true because most undecided voters are actually partisans.

Neither am I. Their panels are unscientific measures of public opinion. Thank you for noting they're worthless.

This was an interesting analysis. You seem to understand the American voter.
 
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