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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.

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P

pigeon

Banned
Dax01 said:
Nate Cohn on the Gallup poll: http://www.tnr.com/blog/electionate/108816/whats-going-the-gallup-poll
Click to expand...

I knew we'd see one today. I should start a blog where all I do is post about what Cohn and Silver are probably going to post about later.

tnr said:
But Gallup's difference might also rest in its likely voter screen, not just sampling of registered voters. A few days ago, Gallup released a demographic breakdown of its likely voter poll and simple algebra demonstrates that white voters represented 80 percent of Gallup’s likely voter universe, up from 77.5 percent in 2008. It's not hard to imagine how the electorate could be less diverse than it was four years ago. Obama’s candidacy generated historic and potentially difficult to repeat turnout from African Americans and the young voters who allow Democrats to capitalize on demographic changes. Outside of the battleground states, the decline in enthusiasm could be especially large.

On the other hand, the idea that the electorate would be less white than the 2010 midterm elections seems harder to imagine, but Gallup’s likely voter universe is actually even whiter than their likely voter surveys prior to the 2010 midterm elections, which was 79 percent white. This observation is likely to produce one of two responses, with Democrats all but assured to assert that the poll is demonstrably wrong and Republicans taking it as confirmation that Democratic enthusiasm is down, particularly among the non-white voters who brought Obama to victory four years ago....

Unfortunately, there aren't many post-debate national polls with racial/ethnic breakdowns for 2012, 2010, and 2008. But those that do seem to suggest an electorate more reminiscent of 2008 than 2010. The most recent Battleground/Lake/Tarrance poll showed whites as 79 percent of the electorate in 2008, 78 percent in 2010, and 77 percent in 2012. The NBC/WSJ poll showed whites as 76 percent of the electorate in 2008, 78 percent in 2010, but 74 percent in their most recent survey. And although Monmouth/SurveyUSA doesn't have a corresponding poll for 2008, they show whites as just 72 percent of the electorate. PPP's recent tracking poll puts whites at 71 percent of the electorate. On the other hand, the ABC/Washington Post poll seems to be whiter than it was in 2008, although an exact number can't be calculated because they now provide a single result for non-white voters, even though they disaggregated African Americans and Hispanics in 2008.

This probably doesn't represent enough data to assert that there is a "consensus" that the electorate will be as diverse as it was four years ago, so it's not clear that Gallup is off on a limb. But if more data depicts such a consensus with Gallup's standing alone, then this might go some way towards explaining how Obama holds such a large lead in their poll of likely voters. If Gallup showed whites as 77 percent of the electorate instead of 80 percent, Obama would gain a net-3.7 points among likely voters (based on their internals from earlier this week).
Click to expand...

Cohn also notes, as before, that Gallup's likely voter model is not very accurate further from the election.
 
T

theytookourjobz

Junior Member
My parents have always been liberals. Since I've been old enough to want to understand politics, I've been liberal as well. I think social programs that help all Americans are great and regulating big business in the interest of the average American is equally important. But I see an increasing number of people I know that are on the other side. I don't have a problem with people who fear the possible problems with big government, but the people I'm talking about are the irrational kind of Republicans that don't believe Obama is from America and call him a Socialist.

Now I've always been taught to question everything and take nothing at face value but I think these people take it wayyyy to far. My basic question is, am I just as bad as them for my mistrust of Romney? Am I only a liberal because of how I was raised?
 
R

RustyNails

Member
theytookourjobz said:
My parents have always been liberals. Since I've been old enough to want to understand politics, I've been liberal as well. I think social programs that help all Americans are great and regulating big business in the interest of the average American is equally important. But I see an increasing number of people I know that are on the other side. I don't have a problem with people who fear the possible problems with big government, but the people I'm talking about are the irrational kind of Republicans that don't believe Obama is from America and call him a Socialist.

Now I've always been taught to question everything and take nothing at face value but I think these people take it wayyyy to far. My basic question is, am I just as bad as them for my mistrust of Romney? Am I only a liberal because of how I was raised?
Click to expand...

You are a liberal because you apologize for America way too much.
 
H

Hobbestetrician

Member
theytookourjobz said:
My parents have always been liberals. Since I've been old enough to want to understand politics, I've been liberal as well. I think social programs that help all Americans are great and regulating big business in the interest of the average American is equally important. But I see an increasing number of people I know that are on the other side. I don't have a problem with people who fear the possible problems with big government, but the people I'm talking about are the irrational kind of Republicans that don't believe Obama is from America and call him a Socialist.

Now I've always been taught to question everything and take nothing at face value but I think these people take it wayyyy to far. My basic question is, am I just as bad as them for my mistrust of Romney? Am I only a liberal because of how I was raised?
Click to expand...

Your mistrust of Romney is probably based much more on reality and the questions you ask have some logic and thought placed behind them. But what do I know, I am a dirty liberal, too.

And nice username.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
theytookourjobz said:
My parents have always been liberals. Since I've been old enough to want to understand politics, I've been liberal as well. I think social programs that help all Americans are great and regulating big business in the interest of the average American is equally important. But I see an increasing number of people I know that are on the other side. I don't have a problem with people who fear the possible problems with big government, but the people I'm talking about are the irrational kind of Republicans that don't believe Obama is from America and call him a Socialist.

Now I've always been taught to question everything and take nothing at face value but I think these people take it wayyyy to far. My basic question is, am I just as bad as them for my mistrust of Romney? Am I only a liberal because of how I was raised?
Click to expand...

Just recognizing that there are reasonable conservatives is a first step. If you really want to know whether your beliefs are real or fake, expose yourself to a lot of reasonable conservative media and see what you think. I recommend the American Conservative and David Frum.
 
E

Ecotic

Member
Aaron Strife said:
Not that McCaskill is my favorite senator either.
Click to expand...
I'm genuinely just needing to be educated, but why is she so near universally disliked? I would have figured if she's just a Democrat vote in the Senate and nothing extraordinary, then that's still a pretty decent floor? I mean, Missouri's hard to hold for Democrats.
 
A

Averon

Member
Huge relief with that CO poll from PPP. Gives Obama more routes to 270 EVs. I'm not all that concerned about IA since Obama also has NV, which gives the exact same EVs as IA. Obama will win at least one of those two (IA and NV), with good chance of winning both.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Ecotic said:
I'm genuinely just needing to be educated, but why is she so near universally disliked? I would have figured if she's just a Democrat vote in the Senate and nothing extraordinary, then that's still a pretty decent floor? I mean, Missouri's hard to hold for Democrats.
Click to expand...
That's the extent to which I like her. She's a Democratic voice in a reddening state.

As for Missouri? Conservatives hate all Democrats. They're all taxn'spend libruls to them. There's no difference between Ben Nelson and Bernie Sanders.
 
T

The Librarian

Banned
Holy crap at this debate Keith Ellison was in.

Ellison: “What’d they find?”

Fields: “And what they found was a statement that my ex-wife had never given me, and she issued a statement saying, hey, it was a deeply troubling period. Now I will tell you this—”

Ellison: “You’re real stupid for bringing up your domestic violence allegations. I wasn’t gonna say a thing about it. I wasn’t gonna mention it.”

Fields: “You know, if you want to talk about divorce —”

Ellison: “I don’t want to talk about it.”

Fields: “—talk about your own. Talk about the fact—”

Ellison: “You are a scumbag.”

Fields: “—that you only pay $500 for child support. Talk about that. You used that money to hurt my ex-wife, who I still love.”

Ellison: “You are a low-life scumbag. You are a low-life scumbag.”

Fields: “I did not spend money to look into my divorce. You did.”

Ellison: “You are a gutter-dweller, and you’re an idiot for bringing up your domestic violence charges.”

Fields: “There was never any.”

(Moderator interrupts, tries to steer things back to economic issues.)

Ellison: “Wow. I can’t believe you did that.”
Click to expand...
 
N

NullPointer

Member
Tendo said:
Gf and I voted in NC today +2 for Obama!

While my fbook fact checking is being passed around work I had 4 undecideds message me and say I pushed them over the edge. Doing everything I know how, guys.
Click to expand...
ibrulSBIFyRsvE.png


*fist bump*
 
E

Ecotic

Member
Bret Baier has a panel on right now from the swing states and a reporter from the Des Moine Register says from what he's seeing, it's closer than 2 points. We'll see what NBC's poll has to say in a few minutes.
 
C

coldfoot

Banned
pigeon said:
Just recognizing that there are reasonable conservatives is a first step. If you really want to know whether your beliefs are real or fake, expose yourself to a lot of reasonable conservative media and see what you think. I recommend the American Conservative and David Frum.
Click to expand...

I have to ask...what are the conservatives conserving?
 
B

Beer Monkey

Member
Angry Republican Ohioan friend on FB:

Anyone who votes early regardless of party is an idiot!! Only justification should be that you are oversees in the Military, on a business trip and out of town, or sick / disability. Anyone who has casted their vote already and could vote on election day is an idiot! Ohio voting starts BEFORE any of the presidential debates. You can never change your vote once you cast early.
Click to expand...

Tears start early this year.
 
E

East Lake

Member
theytookourjobz said:
My parents have always been liberals. Since I've been old enough to want to understand politics, I've been liberal as well. I think social programs that help all Americans are great and regulating big business in the interest of the average American is equally important. But I see an increasing number of people I know that are on the other side. I don't have a problem with people who fear the possible problems with big government, but the people I'm talking about are the irrational kind of Republicans that don't believe Obama is from America and call him a Socialist.

Now I've always been taught to question everything and take nothing at face value but I think these people take it wayyyy to far. My basic question is, am I just as bad as them for my mistrust of Romney? Am I only a liberal because of how I was raised?
Click to expand...
Honestly sort of like pigeon said you only have to worry about being willfully ignorant of any conservative idea you might agree with. Whether you'd be the same now in a different setting is impossible to say. I grew up in a fox news everyday household and now I'm about as liberal as you get.
 
K

kirblar

Member
Y2Kev said:
ROFL

wrap it up, mitt
Click to expand...
The voters in the swing states all mostly made up their minds a long while ago. They've been bombarded with these guys over the past ten months. Late breaking information just isn't going to change the race at this point unless its something truly massive.
 
M

Magni

Member
Tendo said:
Gf and I voted in NC today +2 for Obama!

While my fbook fact checking is being passed around work I had 4 undecideds message me and say I pushed them over the edge. Doing everything I know how, guys.
Click to expand...

Good on you for voting! Don't know if Obama can keep NC this time around but every vote counts.

Also, sorry if I missed your answer last night, but what part did you fact check? There's so much there to fact check haha
 
D

DataStream

Member
NVM beaten with NBC polls.

Feeling pretty calm at this point, good stuff.

Wonder what will happen if it ends up being OctSurprise really was a Discovery channel viral scheme. I imagine that will be some seriously bad press
 
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