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[PhoenixDark]

ORC/CNN Poll Florida Oct 17-18

Romney 49% Obama 48%


Obama 47% / Romney 48% / Johnson 2% / Goode 1% / Stein 0%

Considering Obama is under performing with FL Hispanics, that's bad news.

 

[Red Blaster]

That this election still isn't locked up, frustrates me to no end. Still so many wildcards and scenarios possible. Bah!

Chill, Obama's got this. Early voting has basically shut off Ohio and Iowa for Romney and that's not even mentioning Obama's gains in Colorado and Nevada.

Shit, even states that I'm considering lost for Obama (Florida, NC) could still be tipped back to blue due to the ground game.

 

[Link]

ORC/CNN Poll Florida Oct 17-18

Romney 49% Obama 48%


Obama 47% / Romney 48% / Johnson 2% / Goode 1% / Stein 0%

God dammit, Florida.

 

[Plinko]

ORC/CNN Poll Florida Oct 17-18

Romney 49% Obama 48%


Obama 47% / Romney 48% / Johnson 2% / Goode 1% / Stein 0%

Wow I'm shocked it's even that close. I thought Romney would have it on lockdown.

 

[TacticalFox88]

God dammit, Florida.

Fucking up elections since 2000.

 

[ViperVisor]

Remember when John McCain/Sarah Palin spent time campaigning in PA this close to the election?

I remember McCain's last stop in Indiana was the equivalent of him stepping out of his plane and giving a rally on the tarmac. Needless to say it didn't mean much.

 

[Loudninja]

Wow I'm shocked it's even that close. I thought Romney would have it on lockdown.

It was never lockdown.

Polls show 1 point either way.

 

[Cloudy]

http://dailycaller.com/2012/10/19/nate-silver-vs-the-world/

DC calling out Nate Silver lol

 

[RDreamer]

ORC/CNN Poll Florida Oct 17-18

Romney 49% Obama 48%


Obama 47% / Romney 48% / Johnson 2% / Goode 1% / Stein 0%

Wow, that's pretty decent. I pretty much wrote FL off as a Romney win. I'm still going to do that, but it's still cool seeing it isn't a total loss yet.

 

[Link]

Fucking up elections since 2000.

We went blue in 2008.

Yeah, I was surprised too.

 

[CaptainSchwann]

I remember McCain's last stop in Indiana was the equivalent of him stepping out of his plane and giving a rally on the tarmac. Needless to say it didn't mean much.

It was the night before the election and McCain was still holding rally's in PA while Obama was at home in bed. Tis' a fools errand.

 

[Sirpopopop]

The difference between the polls is that the NBC has a D+2 sample while the PPP has a R+4 sample.

SKEWED VOTING!

(oh man I just love that meme.)

 

[B-Dubs]

http://dailycaller.com/2012/10/19/nate-silver-vs-the-world/

DC calling out Nate Silver lol

Really? Really? For god sake, the unskewing mindset needs to change! This is MATH.

 

[PhoenixDark]

Cuomo isn't campaigning and he is running. Schweitzer really isn't out there at all either tier than the DNC. Pretty much only one is O'malley. So I don't think that is indicative of anything.

Actually I disagree. Cuomo and Schweitzer are governors of uncompetitive states; plus I'd argue Cuomo is hedging against Obama, planning to run in 2016 as a business friendly democrat. Warner is the most popular person in a very important, competitive state. What better way to gain favor with Obama and (perhaps most importantly) his campaign staff than to go all out in Virginia? It seems to me like the perfect spring board to 2016: help Obama win Virginia (and thus the election), get rewarded with a more visible role in the senate, easily win re-election in 2014, then run for president in 2015/2016.

 

[Souldriver]

Regardless of who I'm for, I love when it is this close and keeps you guessing all the way through election night. LOVE IT.

Nope, these aren't NPD numbers. It's the decision on who's gonna be president. Despite me being a political junkie, I want the good guy to win, obviously, in a landslide. Fuck this "it's a tossup" bullshit.

 

[pigeon]

Wow I'm shocked it's even that close. I thought Romney would have it on lockdown.

R+1 in Florida is basically the consensus of all the recent polls. There's still no battleground state where Romney is running away with it -- a two point shift towards Obama would deliver him 330 EVs. The same isn't true for Romney.

So just hope Mitt calls somebody "whitey."

 

[Red Blaster]

http://dailycaller.com/2012/10/19/nate-silver-vs-the-world/

DC calling out Nate Silver lol

fuk yo statistics clown

dis race is 50-50 AT LEAST

 

[Cloudy]

Is Reuters/Ipsos out yet today?

 

[PhoenixDark]

http://dailycaller.com/2012/10/19/nate-silver-vs-the-world/

DC calling out Nate Silver lol

That has to be the stupidest hit job ever. The entire point of Silver's model is that it takes a shit ton of data, weigh it, and predicts an outcome. That is not something you simply fiddle with one day to get whatever outcome you want (to save face).

The RCP aggregate is based on national polls, which do not reflect what's happening in states - hence why being virtually tied in a national aggregate does not make an election a toss up. That article boils down to "lol math."

I can't wait for Silver's response. Better yet, I'd love for him to offer an interview to the author.

 

[Rocket Scientist]

http://dailycaller.com/2012/10/19/nate-silver-vs-the-world/

DC calling out Nate Silver lol

I'm just lolling so hard right now. What is he even trying to say here? What in gods name is wrong with these people.

 

[Plinko]

It was never lockdown.

Polls show 1 point either way.

I never said it WAS lockdown.

I said I thought it would end up that way.

 

[pigeon]

http://dailycaller.com/2012/10/19/nate-silver-vs-the-world/

DC calling out Nate Silver lol

Failed game show host.

 

[Loudninja]

I never said it WAS lockdown.

I said I thought it would end up that way.

Oh I didn't say you did sorry

 

[Lambtron]

I'm just lolling so hard right now. What is he even trying to say here? What in gods name is wrong with these people.

The comments section is goooood. Just another liberal conspiracy, folks!

 

[786110]

The pdf isnt loading on my phone but is Obama really +7 among registered voters in that FL poll or what

 

[gcubed]

man my brain hurts from reading that article... its.. i mean, someone actually WROTE that.

 

[Black Republican]

Wow, that's pretty decent. I pretty much wrote FL off as a Romney win. I'm still going to do that, but it's still cool seeing it isn't a total loss yet.

50 Obama, 43 Romney RV same poll

Depends...

 

[Cloudy]

I can't wait for Silver's response. Better yet, I'd love for him to offer an interview to the author.

Nate Silver ‏@fivethirtyeight

The surest sign that you're a hack is that you think everyone else is a hack.
Details

Nate Silver ‏@fivethirtyeight

If you don't like the 538 forecast, you can bet against it! Bookies have pretty much the same odds that we do. http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/politics-and-election/us-presidential-election/winner …

.

 

[AlteredBeast]

let's survey some facts now. while biden will be campaigning in minnesota, yes that minnesota, paul ryan will be holding a campaign rally outside pittsburgh. and i don't have to tell you what state that's in. pretty strong position for the RR ticket...

LOL. love it.

 

[RDreamer]

50 Obama, 43 Romney RV same poll

Depends...

Nope, not gonna hope for it at all. If he gets it, it'll be a nice surprise on election day. Otherwise, it's expected.

 

[speculawyer]

http://dailycaller.com/2012/10/19/nate-silver-vs-the-world/

DC calling out Nate Silver lol

But the race changed dramatically, and my guess is that, right now, it’s probably a 50-50 proposition. (Silver would likely dismiss this by arguing that political commentators always think every election is a coin toss. But empirical evidence suggests the race is actually close. At the time of this writing, Real Clear Politics poll average has Romney up .1 percent.)

So why hasn’t Silver adjusted accordingly?

It could be that he is just frankly smarter than all the other pollsters, pundits and predictors.

Maybe he just got lucky last time?

Gee . . . maybe it is because the national vote really doesn't matter and his model is heavily weighted using state polls which predict electoral votes.

Or maybe you should teach me more about the President Gore administration. Duh.

 

[pigeon]

50 Obama, 43 Romney RV same poll

Depends...

See, that's wild. I kind of think if your methodology shows an 8-point likely voter gap you should consider that evidence that you're doing something wrong.

That actually makes me feel somewhat better about FL.

 

[Father_Brain]

Isn't Pittsburgh in several OH media markets? It'll take more than that to convince me that the Romney camp believes they have a real shot in PA.

 

[Frank the Great]

wait that FL poll has it O +7 among RV? that is great.

any word on obama's florida ground game? if there really is such a big discrepancy between LV and RV, perhaps his team can pull it off after all.

i really want FL to go blue, it would make the obama victory so much larger. 29 EVs, damn.

 

[Jarmel]

http://dailycaller.com/2012/10/19/nate-silver-vs-the-world/

DC calling out Nate Silver lol

In other words, people are stupid and like to remain so.

 

[Aaron Strife]

50 Obama, 43 Romney RV same poll

Depends...

Holy shit.

I think LV screens tend to be tighter on polls with RV and LV subsets because it's more about measuring enthusiasm than whether someone will actually take the time to show up at the polls (if they finish a poll I tend to think they're pretty politically in tune). OFA just needs to mobilize those voters.

 

[PhoenixDark]

I don't understand the "skin in the game" argument either. If Silver has Obama at a 60-70% chance of winning on election day, and Romney winds up winning, he will lose a lot of credibility.

 

[Diablos]

Isn't Pittsburgh in several OH media markets? It'll take more than that to convince me that the Romney camp believes they have a real shot in PA.

fwiw I have seen hardly any Obama signs here in suburban Pittsburgh.

That said Philly will make up for it and then some, and Obama will still carry Allegheny County, anyone who thinks otherwise is a fool.

Also is Faux News having some report tonight about Libya tonight?

 

[Cloudy]

I don't understand the "skin in the game" argument either. If Silver has Obama at a 60-70% chance of winning on election day, and Romney winds up winning, he will lose a lot of credibility.

Yup. Even moreso because he's up-front about being an Obama supporter

 

[gcubed]

I don't understand the "skin in the game" argument either. If Silver has Obama at a 60-70% chance of winning on election day, and Romney winds up winning, he will lose a lot of credibility.

the entire article is a disaster, to pick one piece of it puts more pain on yourself.

 

[CaptainSchwann]

Holy shit.

I think LV screens tend to be tighter on polls with RV and LV subsets because it's more about measuring enthusiasm than whether someone will actually take the time to show up at the polls (if they finish a poll I tend to think they're pretty politically in tune). OFA just needs to mobilize those voters.

Also, according to CNN:

Likely Florida voters 50 and under: Obama 56, Romney 36

 

[Byakuya769]

I don't understand the "skin in the game" argument either. If Silver has Obama at a 60-70% chance of winning on election day, and Romney winds up winning, he will lose a lot of credibility.

He shouldn't though. At 70% where talking about virtually being correct 2/3s of the time.

 

[Red Blaster]

Lawl reading the comments of that article, some idiots are saying Nate's a fraud because he missed his 2010 House prediction by 5 seats

 

[gcubed]

Also, according to CNN:

Likely Florida voters 50 and under: Obama 56, Romney 36

yeah, but thats like 4%

 

[Stinkles]

Also, according to CNN:

Likely Florida voters 50 and under: Obama 56, Romney 36

Which would be spectacular if it wasn't for the fact that the median age Florida voter still looks like the Cryptkeeper with no makeup on.

 

[mckmas8808]

The difference between the polls is that the NBC has a D+2 sample while the PPP has a R+4 sample.

Thank you for that information.

 

[mckmas8808]

Early voting is probably the only reason that Obama wins this thing, as it looks now. If it were relegated just to day-of voting, with ID in hand, Romney could probably take Ohio, Iowa, Colorado and NV. This is the main reason why ground game matters. Obama's people have been out passing out registration forms for months, getting people aware enough to send in for absentee ballots. Telling them where their polling place is, etc.

Romney is outmatched on people by far.

So what do you think this says about our country's Presidential election process?

 

[Diablos]

Tune in to Fox News this Friday at 10 p.m. ET for a "Special Report" investigation on the Libya consulate attack.

Bret Baier anchors an investigation into the violent fiasco in Libya that ended in the deaths of a U.S. ambassador and three other Americans.

The special includes Baier's exclusive interview with the head of the U.S. Embassy's Site Security Team, and the latest developments from Benghazi.

It will also include additional reports from the White House and the campaign trail -- where voters are asking: What did President Obama know, and when did he know it?

Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/201...s-death-and-deceit-in-benghazi/#ixzz29mPu1YTs

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/10/18/special-report-investigates-death-and-deceit-in-benghazi/

Fair and balanced or last ditch effort to make Obama look like Carter?

You decide.

 

[CaptainSchwann]

yeah, but thats like 4%

Which would be spectacular if it wasn't for the fact that the median age Florida voter still looks like the Cryptkeeper with no makeup on.

Yeah just thought it was interesting how overwhelmingly the 50+(old) crowd goes for Romney down there.

 

[Jackson50]

http://dailycaller.com/2012/10/19/nate-silver-vs-the-world/

DC calling out Nate Silver lol

I'm not familiar with Matt K. Lewis. But he sounds pretty fucking dim.

In hindsight, wouldn't it have been better for the Dems to have their convention in VA instead of NC? After all that, NC isn't even in play this cycle

Perhaps, but probably not. There's no evidence the convention's location affects the state's outcome.