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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.

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mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
wait that FL poll has it O +7 among RV? that is great.

any word on obama's florida ground game? if there really is such a big discrepancy between LV and RV, perhaps his team can pull it off after all.

i really want FL to go blue, it would make the obama victory so much larger. 29 EVs, damn.

That tells me that Obama is probably going to win it by 2 or 3 points (if the election was held today).
 

Trurl

Banned

I think that people see 70% on Silver's page and think it's a bolder prediction than it is because they're used to looking at percentages of how people might vote, not probabilities of a certain outcome. 7 out of 10 is just out of the range of a tossup. Anyone who has played D&D knows that things with only a 3 out of 10 chance of happening happen constantly.
 

bananas

Banned
According to the Princeton Election Consortium (which was very accurate in their 2008 and 2010 predictions):

As of October 19, 3:00PM EDT:
Obama: 299
Romney: 239
Meta-margin: Obama +1.96%

That's up from a low of about 0.5% last week. But down from the high of about 6% from before the first debate. But it is trending upward now.

apMeK.png
 
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/10/18/special-report-investigates-death-and-deceit-in-benghazi/

Fair and balanced or last ditch effort to make Obama look like Carter?

You decide.

Tune in to Fox News this Friday at 10 p.m. ET for a "Special Report" investigation on the Libya consulate attack.

Even Fox knows that no one gives a shit about this obscure consulate security snafu.

We've also lost 267 people in Afghanistan this year, how about a special on that? That would seem much more important.
 

jbug617

Banned
Just seen the Florida numbers. It's better than I expected for Obama. Maybe this is the reason why he is going to Florida next week after the debate.
 
PoliGAF |OT5| Please proceed, Gaffers

Definitely a pivotal moment in the election.

Romney going for move that may have scored himself a few marginal points (I still don't think anyone cares much about that event) but ends up getting his nose bloodied and having the crowd laugh at him.
 
Just seen the Florida numbers. It's better than I expected for Obama. Maybe this is the reason why he is going to Florida next week after the debate.

Yea, I thought Romney was up by 3-4 in FL, now I see it's a dead heat/maybe Romney 1 point advantage.

With the ground game edge, that's actually quite doable.
 

pigeon

Banned
The same way we look at the Florida numbers is maybe the same way Romney supporters looks at the PPP results for Iowa and NH.

Probably, but the last two Florida polls also said Romney +1, while the last two Iowa polls said +6 Obama and +3 Obama.
 

RDreamer

Member
We've also lost 267 people in Afghanistan this year, how about a special on that? That would seem much more important.

This is what I don't get. I don't mean to downplay the death of Americans. It's an absolute tragedy what happened, and we should absolutely get who's responsible and find out what happened and where the info problem was. That said, people on the right are acting like this is the actual fucking 9/11 that happened. As you said, we lose more people in Afghanistan. We lost way way way way more people in Iraq, and we had false info leading us into that, too. To act like bad info or muck ups are suddenly upon us now that we've elected the Kenyan usurper into the white house is just crazy. Being an ambassador in a volatile part of the world is dangerous shit. And dangerous shit means at some point something is going to happen. It's inevitable. It sucks, but we have to learn from it and move on.

And, fuck, far more people than that would die every year if Romney were elected and repealed Obamacare!
 

Crisco

Banned
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/16/world/africa/election-year-stakes-overshadow-nuances-of-benghazi-investigation.html?ref=todayspaper&pagewanted=all&_r=1

To Libyans who witnessed the assault and know the attackers, there is little doubt what occurred: a well-known group of local Islamist militants struck the United States Mission without any warning or protest, and they did it in retaliation for the video. That is what the fighters said at the time, speaking emotionally of their anger at the video without mentioning Al Qaeda, Osama bin Laden or the terrorist strikes of 11 years earlier. And it is an explanation that tracks with their history as members of a local militant group determined to protect Libya from Western influence.

“It was the Ansar al-Shariah people,” said Mohamed Bishari, 20, a neighbor of the compound who watched the assault and described the brigade he saw leading the attack. “There was no protest or anything of that sort.”

How does Romney keep getting away with saying the video had nothing to do with it?
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
I'm surprised "Romnesia" is getting so much play in the media. Since it's basically just a campaign attack line.

It sums up one of Romney's major qualities, his flip flopittyness, in a single word. It lets the news talk about how he likes to flip flop which they haven't really done. I'm not complaining.
 

AniHawk

Member
i see florida as an outside chance for obama, like wisconsin is an outside chance for romney. it's possible, but probably not going to happen.

in that regard, i think nc is to obama what pa is to romney: simply too far out of reach.

it's going to have to come down to ohio, colorado, iowa, new hampshire, and virginia. semi-confident in ohio, and colorado. iffy on iowa and new hampshire. i think virginia will ultimately go to obama, but maybe in an indiana or nc sort of way where it winds up a sort of surprise.
 

Stinkles

Clothed, sober, cooperative
Yea, I thought Romney was up by 3-4 in FL, now I see it's a dead heat/maybe Romney 1 point advantage.

With the ground game edge, that's actually quite doable.

Obama should spend the rest of his Florida funds on running a November 6th Matlock marathon on ABC. Landslide.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
i see florida as an outside chance for obama, like wisconsin is an outside chance for romney. it's possible, but probably not going to happen.

in that regard, i think nc is to obama what pa is to romney: simply too far out of reach.

it's going to have to come down to ohio, colorado, iowa, new hampshire, and virginia. semi-confident in ohio, and colorado. iffy on iowa and new hampshire. i think virginia will ultimately go to obama, but maybe in an indiana or nc sort of way where it winds up a sort of surprise.

No way Romney wins NH, they like to flirt with the Republicans but they always come home to the Dems on election night.
 

RDreamer

Member
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