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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.

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F

Father_Brain

Banned
Aaron Strife said:
Fox Ohio: Obama 46-43

Fox Florida: Romney 48-45

Hrm... I may have jumped the gun a bit by giving Obama Florida on my map, but for now it still seems to be a tossup. Ohio looks good as always.
Click to expand...

I saw a tweet mentioning this and briefly misread it as showing Romney up by three points in both states. Almost freaked out for a moment, to be honest.

I do have a bad feeling about PPP's OH poll tomorrow, though. But it's just one poll.

Noteworthy: the CNN poll gave Obama a 7-point lead with RVs in FL. Fox gives Romney a 2-point lead with them. (In Fox's Ohio poll, Obama leads with RVs 46-41).
 
L

Loudninja

Member
Father_Brain said:
I saw a tweet mentioning this and briefly misread it as showing Romney up by three points in both states. Almost freaked out for a moment, to be honest.

I do have a bad feeling about PPP's OH poll tomorrow, though. But it's just one poll.

Noteworthy: the CNN poll gave Obama a 7-point lead with RVs in FL. Fox gives Romney a 2-point lead with them. (In Fox's Ohio poll, Obama leads with RVs 46-41).
Click to expand...
Obama was up 5 in the last week poll for PPP.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
giga said:
Reuters/Ipsos national poll: 46-43 O.
Click to expand...

third day in a row +3 Obama for Reuters.

Obama +2 in IBD/TIPP

Up 3 in RAND

Tied in Ras

Up 3 in UConn poll

Up 1 in PPP daily tracker.



All together, it's exactly where I think it's been. Obama +2-3 nationally. And yes, I'm ignoring Gallup here which is Romney +6.

Gallup, IMO, is not an outlier in the statistical sense. An outlier statistically is one of every 20 polls with proper methodology that due to randomness ends up outside the confidence interval. Gallup's methodology is wrong right now and is causing it to give incorrect numbers.

If the average is Obama + 2, an outlier could be Romney + 3 which will come down the next day or two. Not +7 and + 6 and consistently far away from everyone else.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Mgoblue201 said:
Early voting numbers are the official numbers. They don't come from the poll.
Click to expand...

fox said:
On the other hand, more than 400,000 Ohio voters had already cast ballots as of Wednesday, according to Sec. of State Jon Husted, and the poll shows those early voters siding with Obama by 20 points.
Click to expand...

The article is either accidentally or intentionally misleading.
 
A

AniHawk

Member
Cloudy said:
I think Romney's got FL locked up. I'm hopeful about OH for Obama (46-41 RV in the Fox poll)
Click to expand...

if romney has florida locked up, obama has ohio locked up.

i don't think it's for sure until we hear back from ohio. i have a feeling the extremely strong polling from last week's saturday might have been an outlier. i'll go with +2 or +3 for obama.
 
M

markatisu

Member
AniHawk said:
if romney has florida locked up, obama has ohio locked up.

i don't think it's for sure until we hear back from ohio. i have a feeling the extremely strong polling from last week's saturday might have been an outlier. i'll go with +2 or +3 for obama.
Click to expand...

Even if he is +2, with early voting he has it locked. At his worst he was still up, but I supposed people here won't be satisfied till election night when it's official
 
7

786110

Member
Frank the Great said:
any word on obama's florida ground game? if there really is such a big discrepancy between LV and RV, perhaps his team can pull it off after all.
Click to expand...

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articl...ign-opens-up-a-big-lead-in-field-offices.html

In Ohio, 122 Obama local HQs compared to 40 for Romney.

In Florida, the Obama campaign has 102 local HQs versus 48 for Romney.

And in Virginia, a more even split—47 for Obama compared to 29 for Romney.
Click to expand...

An acquaintance of mine works in FL and has been working roughly 120 hour weeks since Mid-September
 
T

Triton55

Member
I was just thinking, if "Romnesia" comes up in the next debate and Romney counters by saying "Obamnesia" I have the perfect comeback.

"Y'know, that's not, not really the best pun, 'Obamnesia,' because, for one, I don't have an 'n' in my last name. And, so -- so actually, 'Obamney' you might remember was when your opponents in the Republican primary were criticizing you for having a few positions they said were similar to mine. "Obamneycare" they called it. And you responded, you responded by saying, no no, I'm severely conservative. I'll repeal Obamacare day 1. I'll kill it dead. Even though everyone was saying that your plan was basically the same as mine. And that, that is definitely a prime example of Romnesia."

And then he can continue talking about other flip-flops on taxes, contraception, etc. Work in the etch-a-sketch gaffe. This would be pretty out-of-place in a foreign policy debate of course, and it's honestly kinda too silly for presidential political discourse, but hey it's kinda entertaining to think about.
 
B

bananas

Banned
Triton55 said:
I was just thinking, if "Romnesia" comes up in the next debate and Romney counters by saying "Obamnesia" I have the perfect comeback.

"Y'know, that's not, not really the best pun, 'Obamnesia,' because, for one, I don't have an 'n' in my last name. And, so -- so actually, 'Obamney' you might remember was when your opponents in the Republican primary were criticizing you for having a few positions they said were similar to mine. "Obamneycare" they called it. And you responded, you responded by saying, no no, I'm severely conservative. I'll repeal Obamacare day 1. I'll kill it dead. Even though everyone was saying that your plan was basically the same as mine. And that, that is definitely a prime example of Romnesia."
Click to expand...

I have no idea what you just said.
 
H

Hobbestetrician

Member
Obama is back down to pre-debate 2 levels on Intrade (~61%, was as high as 66, I think). Not sure why it has dropped back down but an opportunity for those of you who have been talking about it to get it maybe as low as you can.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
PhoenixDark said:
Romney is buying ads in Boston, for NH. Looks like his campaign really likes what they're seeing in that state's polls
Click to expand...
Might also have the side effect of helping brown (lol)

Romney doesn't really get a choice of what he likes at this point, does he? He has a ton of money and very complex paths and not a lot of time. He's going to spend like wild.
 
C

Cloudy

Banned
As of October 19, 6:15PM EDT:
Obama: 299
Romney: 239
Meta-margin: Obama +1.96%
Click to expand...

EV_history.png


http://election.princeton.edu/

This guy's prediction looks good so far. Meta-margin was .06% Obama last week
 
P

Puddles

Banned
It's no secret that I read a lot of political debates, and recently I've come to notice something.

Generally, the people on the conservative side of a debate have very uniform, predictable arguments. You could read the same debate play out across ten different forums and see ten posts which, while not 100% identical, are very close. To me, this seems to imply that most conservative political warriors are not coming up with their own arguments, but are basically copying and pasting from one or more common sources.

On the other side of the debate, I find that the liberals almost always show a lot more original thought in their arguments. It's much rarer for me to see a liberal copy someone else's talking point word for word unless it's not particularly serious (i.e. binders full of women). The liberals are almost always more likely to be able to quickly come up with a statistical or otherwise empirical study on the subject of the debate at hand and construct an argument based around that.

I had never really put all of this together, but it's quite fascinating.
 
T

Triton55

Member
PhoenixDark said:
Romney is buying ads in Boston, for NH. Looks like his campaign really likes what they're seeing in that state's polls
Click to expand...

Yeah, it is looking iffy. Sam Wang has it as a toss-up. Luckily, it's small enough that it doesn't make a difference in the OH+WI+ NV or IA path to victory.
 
F

Forever

Banned
At this point Obama just needs to close out the third debate strongly and there will be no more game changers left. The nature of the race will be locked in late next week.
 
C

Cloudy

Banned
Forever said:
At this point Obama just needs to close out the third debate strongly and there will be no more game changers left. The nature of the race will be locked in late next week.
Click to expand...

Yeah, he stopped the bad/tired debater narrative on Tuesday. Needs to be even stronger on Monday. Cannot give the media another Romney-surging narrative
 
G

GashPrex

NeoGaf-Gold™ Member
PoliGAF |OT5| A Support Thread for Obama Supporters

PoliGAF |OT5| Good Job, Good Effort Romney

PoliGAF |OT5| These Polls are Not Optimal
 
S

Sirpopopop

Member
Puddles said:
It's no secret that I read a lot of political debates, and recently I've come to notice something.

Generally, the people on the conservative side of a debate have very uniform, predictable arguments. You could read the same debate play out across ten different forums and see ten posts which, while not 100% identical, are very close. To me, this seems to imply that most conservative political warriors are not coming up with their own arguments, but are basically copying and pasting from one or more common sources.

On the other side of the debate, I find that the liberals almost always show a lot more original thought in their arguments. It's much rarer for me to see a liberal copy someone else's talking point word for word unless it's not particularly serious (i.e. binders full of women). The liberals are almost always more likely to be able to quickly come up with a statistical or otherwise empirical study on the subject of the debate at hand and construct an argument based around that.

I had never really put all of this together, but it's quite fascinating.
Click to expand...


It fits in with the national picture of the Republican Party being very uniform, and the Democratic Party being a diaspora of different interests.

Hence why even with a super majority you can't count on the Democrats getting much of anything done. They are the Big Tent party.

Edit: Newest conservative talking point seems to be something about a Libya cables leak?

Any info on that bit of information.
 
C

Cloudy

Banned
Did Carmona just cost himself the election?

http://www.azcentral.com/video/1910577063001

Democrat Richard Carmona tells "Sunday Square Off" moderator Brahm Resnik he's "prettier" than CNN's Candy Crowley as Resnik settles down an intense U.S. Senate debate Thursday with Republican Congressman Jeff Flake. (Last 0:35)
Click to expand...

The GOP will hammer him with this. The again, most GOP voters probably hate Crowley's guts right now lol
 
J

JesseZao

Member
Puddles said:
It's no secret that I read a lot of political debates, and recently I've come to notice something.

Generally, the people on the conservative side of a debate have very uniform, predictable arguments. You could read the same debate play out across ten different forums and see ten posts which, while not 100% identical, are very close. To me, this seems to imply that most conservative political warriors are not coming up with their own arguments, but are basically copying and pasting from one or more common sources.

On the other side of the debate, I find that the liberals almost always show a lot more original thought in their arguments. It's much rarer for me to see a liberal copy someone else's talking point word for word unless it's not particularly serious (i.e. binders full of women). The liberals are almost always more likely to be able to quickly come up with a statistical or otherwise empirical study on the subject of the debate at hand and construct an argument based around that.

I had never really put all of this together, but it's quite fascinating.
Click to expand...

I don't see that as a profound realization. Conservatives are based in traditional values that don't change, while liberals are constantly searching out new ideas.
 
Vestal

Vestal

Junior Member
MOTHER FUCKER the amendments in the Florida Ballot this year!!!

http://collinscenter.org/2012flamendments/home-2/


Amendment 1
A “yes” vote means you want the Florida Constitution to include a provision that prohibits the government from requiring you to purchase health insurance.
Click to expand...

Amendment 5
Proposing a revision of Article V of the State Constitution relating to the judiciary. The State Constitution authorizes the Supreme Court to adopt rules for the practice and procedure in all courts. The constitution further provides that a rule of court may be repealed by a general law enacted by a two-thirds vote of the membership of each house of the Legislature. This proposed constitutional revision eliminates the requirement that a general law repealing a court rule pass by a two-thirds vote of each house, thereby providing that the Legislature may repeal a rule of court by a general law approved by a majority vote of each house of the Legislature that expresses the policy behind the repeal. The court could readopt the rule in conformity with the public policy expressed by the Legislature, but if the Legislature determines that a rule has been readopted and repeals the readopted rule, this proposed revision prohibits the court from further readopting the repealed rule without the Legislature’s prior approval.
Click to expand...
Amendment 6
A “yes” vote means you support putting the existing federal ban on the use of public funds for abortions into the state constitution; and you support eliminating the state’s privacy right with respect to a woman’s right to choose.
Click to expand...
Amendment 8

A “yes” vote means you want to remove from the Florida Constitution a prohibition against the state funding religious institutions and replace it with a provision that prohibits the state from denying funding to institutions based on religious affiliations.
Click to expand...

tumblr_lnvkpizAjf1qbohddo1_400.gif


We need to get rid of this Governor ASAP
 
R

Red Blaster

Member
Is Dick Scott the nation's first fascist governor

we Floridians voted for light-rail twice and he was like "nope, I hate it" and refused the money
 
M

Mgoblue201

Won't stop picking the right nation
Cyan said:
You sure about that? I don't think they release any official counts until election day. I'm pretty sure the official numbers we were hearing earlier were counts of ballots returned by party registration.
Click to expand...
That's what I was referring to - the total number of ballots. I didn't notice that the Fox poll also counted who early voters had actually voted for, which, for some reason, doesn't appear in the cross tabs.
 
S

Sirpopopop

Member
GashPrex said:
and why shouldn't FL residents get to make a choice on its own constitution on those things? I guess I don't get the objection
Click to expand...

No one is saying they don't have the right to make these choices. They are just rightly mocking them as bizarre.

Edit: You've subscribed to the "Pox on Both of Their Houses" bit for ten years. Since then one party made a massive shift to the right. To continue to maintain this stance either means that you moved to the right (like CNN), and might as well just call yourself a conservative, or like CNN, you're just trolling for responses.

Which is it?
 
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