Support NeoGAF

[Diablos]

I really don't understand what's going on here. How is Romney closing all these gaps after the second debate? Is the first debate's effect still carrying over or something?

Perhaps:

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls

NH voters think Obama won debate by 8 pts, still support Romney by 1. Democrats need to accept debate this week was not a big game changer

 

[Loudninja]

Why not?

Because.

 

[Y2Kev]

What will exit polls look like on election night. Won't they dramatically overstate Romney's edge?

 

[Bulbo Urethral Baggins]

In Februrary Mitt Romney's favorability in Ohio was 28/56. Now it's 49/47. 30 point net positive shift over the course of the year. -ppp

 

[Diablos]

In Februrary Mitt Romney's favorability in Ohio was 28/56. Now it's 49/47. 30 point net positive shift over the course of the year. -ppp

That's insane.

 

[Red Blaster]

There's a reason LeBron took his talents to south beach after all

 

[Gotchaye]

@ppppolls
Obama is up 66/34 with early voters in Ohio (21% of electorate) but down 52/44 with those yet to vote

I'm okay with this. That's a very narrow Obama lead taken on face, and superior gotv can narrow that 52/44 gap with two more weeks of early voting left.

 

[Link]

In Februrary Mitt Romney's favorability in Ohio was 28/56. Now it's 49/47. 30 point net positive shift over the course of the year. -ppp

Good to know the public at large is still completely gullible. Just tell people what they want to hear and they'll eat it up, regardless if it's all lies that contradict your actual policies.

Good job, America.

 

[Loudninja]

So Ohio:
Fox Obama up 3
PPP Obama up 1

 

[Owzers]

Good to know the public at large is still completely gullible. Just tell people what they want to hear and they'll eat it up, regardless if it's all lies that contradict your actual policies.

Good job, America.

Of course my health care plan covers pre-existing conditions!

 

[Bulbo Urethral Baggins]

That's insane.

You guys aren't going to like to hear this, but the more people see and hear Romney, the more they like him. That's why Obama jumped on early with the negative shit. They wanted to define him early on.

 

[bananas]

So Ohio:
Fox Obama up 3
PPP Obama up 1

So, about Obama +2.

Seems to be a pattern.

 

[Diablos]

I think people are seriously starting to make up their minds and an unexpected about of voters are breaking for Romney.

The IA poll from yesterday is pretty awful too, NH as well.

 

[Loudninja]

Those early voting splits in Ohio and Iowa are massive.

 

[Diablos]

Those early voting splits in Ohio and Iowa are massive.

But if Obama keeps plummeting in these polls I don't think it would be enough to make up for the non-early voters.

 

[Link]

Those early voting splits in Ohio and Iowa are massive.

Why do you think so many GOP members are trying to cut back/eliminate early voting?

 

[Loudninja]

Why do you think so many GOP members are trying to cut back/eliminate early voting?

Yep and I am glad they failed.

 

[The Librarian]

I think people are seriously starting to make up their minds and an unexpected about of voters are breaking for Romney.

The IA poll from yesterday is pretty awful too, NH as well.

A +1 margin for Romney in IA and NH is awful? So the +1 margins for Obama, released today, in VA (+2 I think, actually), FL, and OH must be spectacular.

 

[Red Blaster]

Diablos walking towards the ledge again lulz

 

[PhoenixDark]

Why not?

Obama's early vote lead is shrinking, GOP is going all out there, etc. I don't think the door has been shut on Romney there; plus his favorables are decent there, finally.

 

[Diablos]

Some guy from twitter:

Extrapolating @ppppolls Ohio data 21% [already voted @ 66/34 (O); 79% yet to vote @ 52/44 (R)] w/ 4.7mil total ---> (O) 48.62% to (R) 48.22%

Holy fuck.

 

[syllogism]

Considering we still don't have any polls showing Romney ahead in Ohio, Obama is likely leading by 2-3 points there

 

[CaptainSchwann]

Several good Obama polls this week: Eh pretty good
Two or three bad polls: PANICCC

Seriously, PPP had polls earlier this week that swung toward Romney more that other State polls, so this isn't really surprising.

 

[Keio]

@ppppolls
Obama is up 66/34 with early voters in Ohio (21% of electorate) but down 52/44 with those yet to vote

Ok, quick Excel run.

RVs = 7 700 000
Early = 1 617 000
Election Day = 6 083 000

Obama
Early 1067220
Election Day 2676520
TOTAL 3743740

Romney
Early 549780
Election Day 3163160
TOTAL 3712940

Hopium.

 

[codhand]

sweet, recounts.

 

[Kevitivity]

Election Night will be to die for.

Agreed. It's going to be fun.

 

[Link]

Yep and I am glad they failed.

Not completely, unfortunately. Florida's was cut down to just 8 days. And it seems Husted has no intention on listening to the court order.

 

[Bulbo Urethral Baggins]

I'm actually starting to get nervous that Romney may win this.

 

[Loudninja]

Several good Obama polls this week: Eh pretty good
Two or three bad polls: PANICCC

Seriously, PPP had polls earlier this week that swung toward Romney more that other State polls, so this isn't really surprising.

Its always the same people.

 

[Diablos]

Ohio is shaping up to be a state won by a razor thin margin.

This is fucking ridiculous.

 

[pigeon]

Did anyone actually believe Obama was five points ahead in Ohio, when the consensus of polls has the race in the 1-3 point range during the same time period?

Haven't you people learned by now to evaluate polls against consensus? I realize the freakout has become routine by now, but good grief people.

This is a good post.

Poll consensus still calls Obama ahead by 3 points or so.

Quick, someone find Anihawk, I want to see the probability math for this.

It's not complicated. 2/3rds of 21 is 14, Obama has a 7 point lead. Romney needs to make up that 7 point lead in the 79 percent remaining, that's a little less than 10 points assuming perfect turnout. He's short a couple.

That's insane.

Ridiculous starting point. Romney got a big approval bump right after he locked the nomination.

I think people are seriously starting to make up their minds and an unexpected about of voters are breaking for Romney.

Explains the Marist polls pretty well.

 

[Black Mamba]

Roughly 50% of the time a poll will be too low. That's how it works.

And with rounding this could be 48.4 to 46.5.

Calm the fuck down. A one point leaf is consistent with a three point lead.

Furthermore if they polled 1000 people then only 200 are early voters. More variance here.

If the consensus moves to 1 then worry. Stop this nonsense.

 

[Brinbe]

Here we go again, like fucking clockwork

 

[maximum360]

New Susa poll for Florida. O 47, R 46. http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=ac0d63ea-75f1-42aa-ba9c-e6955f64c76b

Worse news for Obama.

 

[Loudninja]

One thing that is consistent no matter the number is the early voting split in Ohio and Iowa.

 

[Y2Kev]

I mean, I get that Obama's GOTV effort is so strong that of course Romney voters would be left over to vote on election day, but it still sucks to actually SEE it.

Of course, the LV screens could be a bit wonky making it look closer than it is...but it's still comforting.

I'm not so worried about "poll consensus" as I am swings from the same pollster. Which is probably silly.

 

[bananas]

What if Obama ends up losing Ohio by a razor margin, but wins Florida by a razor margin as well.

I would laugh.

 

[CaptainSchwann]

One thing that is consistent no matter the number is the early voting split in Ohio and Iowa.

People also forget, a high reported Democrat advantage in early voting can also discourage some voters from going out if they think the other side has already won. Same reason why I know a lot of Dem's down here not voting.

 

[Y2Kev]

I really don't want anything within "recount" margins because I want to go to bed early.

 

[Loudninja]

Its funny how when one poll don't go you way people start throwing tantrums and very other poll is completely ignored.

Come on now.

 

[Link]

What if Obama ends up losing Ohio by a razor margin, but wins Florida by a razor margin as well.

I would laugh.

I hope Obama can just win Florida so all this drama can be over early.

 

[Puddles]

This shit isn't right.

Forget the Obamacare repeal that will kill thousands of people every year. Kevitivity does not deserve to be happy for a single moment of his life. Romney shouldn't win for that reason alone.

 

[Slime]

I wonder how Obama would be doing right now if he had bothered to show up in Denver. Looks like it's having a much bigger effect on this election than anyone imagined. Not even a decent second debate accomplished much of anything.

Amazing how things went from overwhelming support for Obama to a modest but consistent preference for Romney at the drop of a hat. You always expect polls to tighten, but not a rapid erosion like this.

 

[DragonSworne]

Obama's early vote lead is shrinking, GOP is going all out there, etc. I don't think the door has been shut on Romney there; plus his favorables are decent there, finally.

Just wait for Monday night

 

[PhoenixDark]

Just wait for Monday night

Agreed. It's hard to go all out until we see what happens Monday night

 

[Black Mamba]

I mean, I get that Obama's GOTV effort is so strong that of course Romney voters would be left over to vote on election day, but it still sucks to actually SEE it.

Of course, the LV screens could be a bit wonky making it look closer than it is...but it's still comforting.

I'm not so worried about "poll consensus" as I am swings from the same pollster. Which is probably silly.

Four points isn't a confirmed swing. If the five point lead wAs too high to begin with is there a swing?

Too much noise to look at one pollster.

 

[Loudninja]

I wonder how Obama would be doing right now if he had bothered to show up in Denver. Looks like it's having a much bigger effect on this election than anyone imagined. Not even a decent second debate accomplished much of anything.

Amazing how things went from overwhelming support for Obama to a modest but consistent preference for Romney at the drop of a hat. You always expect polls to tighten, but not a rapid erosion like this.

You do know he was up 5 last week and not a massive swing for no reason this week?

I am so sick of the debate nonsense.

 

[pigeon]

I wonder how Obama would be doing right now if he had bothered to show up in Denver. Looks like it's having a much bigger effect on this election than anyone imagined. Not even a decent second debate accomplished much of anything.

Amazing how things went from overwhelming support for Obama to a modest but consistent preference for Romney at the drop of a hat. You always expect polls to tighten, but not a rapid erosion like this.

Wtf

Raise your hand if you understand that if Obama is up by a point in Ohio it still counts as a win.

 

[Link]

Just wait for Monday night

I really don't see the last debate affecting things much either way. Foreign policy doesn't seem to be a major issue in this election.

 

[DragonSworne]

I really don't see the last debate affecting things much either way. Foreign policy doesn't seem to be a major issue in this election.

It will be when Romney stumbles over Benghazi over again