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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.
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TacticalFox88
Banned
At this point, if the fucker gets 270 I'll pop some champagne and get drunk as fuck. Anything extra is just bonus.
That's worth emphasizing. The more people out of that 79% that don't vote, assuming the distribution remains the same, the better Obama's chances become. According to this poll, Romney needs to get the entire Ohio electorate to come out, at the split they're indicating on this poll, in order to lose by only a little bit.
*raises hand!*
Link
The Autumn Wind
Didn't do much the first time.
Black Mamba
Member
Or Obama was up 3 last week and is up 3 this week and ppp just polled around it due to normal circumstances.
As long as polls consistently show Obama with a lead don't sweat.
DragonSworne
Banned
I personally think it had a huge impact and was the defining moment of the election.
Baraka in the White House
2-Terms of Kombat
Conservatives are finally rallying around Romney, guys. Last train to Fuckobamaville is leaving the station.
Obams was never gonna run away with this (but still might).
Obams was never gonna run away with this (but still might).
Link
The Autumn Wind
Polls aren't reflecting that, unfortunately.
rohlfinator
Member
Maybe this is a dumb question, but are there any running theories out there for why our presidential elections tend to be so close all the time? Isn't it a giant fucking statistical anomaly that a contest between two opposing parties -- who for all their similarities are still wildly different on a lot of key issues -- so often comes within one or two percentage points of a draw?
Is it just due to the large number of "undecided" low information voters who are easily swayed to one side or the other?
Is it just due to the large number of "undecided" low information voters who are easily swayed to one side or the other?
DragonSworne
Banned
It's amazing how conversatives spent a whole year trashing Romney and are supporting him...
Speaking generally, not just about Ohio.
Debate wasn't nonsense though. Might have just accomplished what was going to happen anyway faster, but either way the game changed almost immediately after.
Haha it so stupid.
DragonSworne
Banned
Polls are overrated, I don't follow polls.
Do you know what the polls ARE reflecting? DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM
Baraka in the White House
2-Terms of Kombat
I've got no data but my speculation is that it's not real undecideds that are breaking for Romney but a combination of embarrassed conservative-leaning voters who finally found Romney to be palatable and disillusioned hardcore tea party types who probably still don't like Romney but are energized enough to get out and try to oust Bams.
CaptainSchwann
Member
Does Gallup put out polls on Saturday?
Black Republican
Member
Romney is 49-42 with indies in Ohio PPP poll
They already did no one cared.
Link
The Autumn Wind
Haha, I'm not saying that, but it's not like Obama is making any gains. Everything is just hovering where it was before.
CaptainSchwann
Member
Ahh good to know lol
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Still a bit early but his national numbers bumped up slightly.
Black Mamba
Member
Also, Obama is now up 3 in the IBD/TIPP poll. He's also up 3 in the UCONN tracker poll.
He's up 3 in those 2 and up 3 in RAND. Also up 2 in PPP and was up 3 in Reuters/IPSOS (hasn't updated today)
I believe if he's really up 2-3 in the nation, he's up 2-3 in Ohio.
He's up 3 in those 2 and up 3 in RAND. Also up 2 in PPP and was up 3 in Reuters/IPSOS (hasn't updated today)
I believe if he's really up 2-3 in the nation, he's up 2-3 in Ohio.
RustyNails
Member
Is PPP still doing R+4 party ID turnout? because 49-42 lead with indies does not reflect a 1 point lead state wide.
Aaron Strife
Banned
When the worst poll of Ohio shows our guy leading by 1 I feel good.
Wow, going to be tough for Obama to overcome that deficit. What? He is actually still leading by a point? Never mind then.
Seriously, the only poll in October to show Romney leadIng in Ohio was done just after the debate. It was a one point deficit. A later poll by that same pollster showed a tie; which was Obama's second worst poll in the state.
A poll taken in the same timeframe showed Obama up by two in Arizona. Does anyone think Republicans are seriously afraid they are going to lose that state?
PPP's polls have been very erratic this year anyway.
Seriously, the only poll in October to show Romney leadIng in Ohio was done just after the debate. It was a one point deficit. A later poll by that same pollster showed a tie; which was Obama's second worst poll in the state.
A poll taken in the same timeframe showed Obama up by two in Arizona. Does anyone think Republicans are seriously afraid they are going to lose that state?
PPP's polls have been very erratic this year anyway.
The focus on one poll instead of averages of recent polls is dumb
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2012-ohio-president-romney-vs-obama?gem
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2012-ohio-president-romney-vs-obama?gem
Black Mamba
Member
Gravis has it tied. But I don't trust Gravis one bit.
Aaron Strife
Banned
I'll trust them when they stop reporting impossible numbers.
speculawyer
Member
I was meeting with a client today and he works on complex statistical stuff involving Bayesian predictions, Principle Component Analysis, Auto Regressions, etc.
So I asked him, do you read Nate Silver's stuff? "YES! He does very interesting work, I read 538 all the time." It was a nice endorsement for Nates methodology that this Ph.D entrepreneur was basically giving Nate the big thumbs up.
So I asked him, do you read Nate Silver's stuff? "YES! He does very interesting work, I read 538 all the time." It was a nice endorsement for Nates methodology that this Ph.D entrepreneur was basically giving Nate the big thumbs up.
TacticalFox88
Banned
You know what, I think? That even if Obama wins, I can see this happening:
"Dems didn't retake the House!"
"Bad News for Obama!"
"Dems didn't retake the House!"
"Bad News for Obama!"
the ppp ohio poll is lower than i wanted it to be, but not super surprising. it was a tie last friday, and then went up for a +5 total on saturday. for obama to overcome a tie and then go for a huge +5 meant one of those days was an outlier. considering the national polls, and what the ppp poll released today, it was that saturday.
if the next ppp poll for ohio comes out next week, and it's tied or +1 romney, maybe then it's time for panic.
anyway, here's the breakdown of the ppp poll using 2008 numbers:
5.6m people
o: 776,160
r: 399,840
election day:
o: 1,946,460 | 2,722,620 | 48.61%
r: 2,300,480 | 2,700,320 | 48.22%
if the next ppp poll for ohio comes out next week, and it's tied or +1 romney, maybe then it's time for panic.
anyway, here's the breakdown of the ppp poll using 2008 numbers:
5.6m people
o: 776,160
r: 399,840
election day:
o: 1,946,460 | 2,722,620 | 48.61%
r: 2,300,480 | 2,700,320 | 48.22%
Trying my best to clock out at the moment. Going to be spending time this weekend and during the week to finish updating my resume. There are a few IT positions open at local hospitals in the area and going to be trying for them. Should be helpful in keeping my mind off of this. That and gaming as well.
The reason it seems that way is that many of Obama's supporters have already voted. Look at people who've actually voted...who's breaking for whom?
No. Exit pollsters poll early voters to account for them.
True. Personally, I consider whether it serves the public interest to provide that information. And I don't think it does. If there were evidence GMOs were harmful, I'd support the measure. However, it provides information irrelevant to making a healthful choice. And if I had to guess, consumers are generally more knowledgeable about proper nutrition than the evidence on GMOs. So I can envisage ignorant consumers making uninformed decisions based off extraneous information.
CoffeeJanitor
Member
I am so afraid of Romney winning. Seriously. No surprise that the only people I know that support Romney have warped views of what PPACA is, think that Candy broke the rules, think the health care industry should be decided by the free market, think Bush gets hated on too much, etc...
I mean it's cool if you have conservative values but is it any wonder why cities (cultural centers) are usually more liberal?
/rant
I mean it's cool if you have conservative values but is it any wonder why cities (cultural centers) are usually more liberal?
/rant
Aaron Strife
Banned
Obscure constitutional clause forbids President Obama from running for a third term - Bad News for Obama?
Pichigan?
Black Mamba
Member
I would like to remind everyone again there are no decimal points given, right?
So 48-47 could, theoretically, be 48.4-46.5.
So 48-47 could, theoretically, be 48.4-46.5.
With the election so close it could just mean people are finally starting to make up their minds and after warming up to Mitt, decided to choose him.
way too close for comfort.
I'm starting to feel like I did in 2010. Really uncertain but things seem to be breaking slightly for the GOP at this point.
I like how we're at the point where we just want to fuck Kevitivity over.
Black Mamba
Member
I think Obama's big problem is in the debates he really hasn't shown his vision for the next 4 years and it's making people apprehensive.
It might be too late now. He needed to hammer home in the 2nd debate his Jobs bill and Obamacare. He did well to show why Romney sucks but not enough to show why he's definitely better.
And people could very well start to think "maybe I should try something new."
Also, despite the Bush question, Obama should have made it a theme of the night that Romney is Bush and really pound on it. No mention that he has the same economic and foreign advisers at all.
It might be too late now. He needed to hammer home in the 2nd debate his Jobs bill and Obamacare. He did well to show why Romney sucks but not enough to show why he's definitely better.
And people could very well start to think "maybe I should try something new."
Also, despite the Bush question, Obama should have made it a theme of the night that Romney is Bush and really pound on it. No mention that he has the same economic and foreign advisers at all.
The Librarian
Banned
Starting to?
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