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[electricpirate]

You guys focus on early voting numbers too much. Early don't matter if they're moving guaranteed Election Day votes to early votes. What matters are people who wouldn't vote on Election Day now voting early. But no pollster can measure that.

Early voting tightening means nada

When all is said and done, in most places the gap is basically the same, or only slightly smaller (Like IA and Ohio, though Ohio is hard to discern). Dems seem to have improved their EV/Absentee tactics in Florida.

We'll see what the numbers say when everything is done. I mean, EV doesn't result in huge numbers of voters you wouldn't see anyways, but hopefully you bank a few that wouldn't normally vote, or you make it easier to vote, and can use resources better on election day for your GOTV machine.

If you are insistent on taking something worrying out, think of that as a sign that Republicans have improved their ground game, but also keep in mind that while better, it doesn't seem *much* better from 2008.

 

[AniHawk]

I'm afraid Obama is going to lose.

i have kinda resigned myself to this possibility. it's looking like it could happen. i can see a scenario where ohio turnout for romney somehow gets him a win. that's really all either candidate needs. obama's other win scenario means getting iowa, colorado, and new hampshire, or somehow netting virginia.

 

[pigeon]

What's this code for, assassination?

That's a new euphemism to me but the same old story.

The tree of liberty must be watered from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants.

 

[RDreamer]

Obama's Truth Team put up this foreign policy cheat sheet on what Romney needs to answer in the debate

I'd guess those are the points Obama's going to try to make tonight.

 

[TheSchwab_7]

I show no fear.

I shall survive regardless of who is elected president.

I'll survive, but I hope that our social policies don't go backwards 100 years if Mittens is elected.

 

[HylianTom]

When all is said and done, in most places the gap is basically the same, or only slightly smaller (Like IA and Ohio, though Ohio is hard to discern). Dems seem to have improved their EV/Absentee tactics in Florida.

We'll see what the numbers say when everything is done. I mean, EV doesn't result in huge numbers of voters you wouldn't see anyways, but hopefully you bank a few that wouldn't normally vote, or you make it easier to vote, and can use resources better on election day for your GOTV machine.

If you are insistent on taking something worrying out, think of that as a sign that Republicans have improved their ground game, but also keep in mind that while better, it doesn't seem *much* better from 2008.

And the thing is.. McCain's ground game was, well, unimpressive.
So to say that their ground presence has improved is, well, unimpressive.

He's still got this.

 

[gcubed]

The whole gun thing is fantastic. There is only one candidate who approved limiting gun ownership rights in this debate... and its not Barack Obama. This whole "take your guns" fallacy while completely ignoring Mitt Romney's worse record on gun rights is a beautiful thing to watch

 

[richiek]

One thing I keep hoping for is that all polls are underestimating Latino turnout and voting because of no Spanish language.

Exactly. Aren't most of these polls putting more emphasis on LV compared to RV and undervaluing groups like Latinos?

 

[speculawyer]

‘Romney Blimp’ Crash Lands in Florida

A blimp-like aircraft that carried advertising showing a beaming Mitt Romney was forced to make an emergency landing in a heavily Democratic part of Florida on Sunday, The Miami Herald reported.

No one was injured in the crash, according to local authorities who spoke with The Herald. Two people were aboard.

The blimp started its flight in Boca Raton, the site of tonight’s debate, and moved south, according to The Herald. The airship carried a message: “America Needs Romney,” along with a picture of the grinning candidate.

The pilot encountered strong winds, according to The Herald. “He just knew he wasn't going to make it,” a spokesman for the the local police told The Herald, and instead landed the blimp about 150 yards from two homes in a development.

http://news.yahoo.com/romney-blimp-crash-lands-florida-092329958--politics.html

 

[Father_Brain]

New UNH poll: Obama leads in New Hampshire, 49-41. Likely an outlier, but won't hurt the averages.

 

[ezrarh]

I'm afraid Obama is going to lose.

I'm putting 4000 on Obama on Intrade. He's got this, don't worry.

 

[PistolGrip]

he used it in the last debate.

In an almost flattering way plus the question itself mentioned the name Bush like 5 times.

 

[el retorno]

This FL Charter Amendment is on the ballot and I think was sponsored by a Tea Party Repub (which understandably makes me uneasy). On the surface it doesn't seem too bad, however maybe someone here has more information on it than I can dig up.



To vote Yes or No, is the question...

I'd vote against it. It'll get manipulated. If your county is run by republicans they'll probably over charge everything democrats want and their proposals will magically cost nothing.

Its goal is to cut services and scare people against voting for things that would help them.

 

[Loudninja]

Obama's Truth Team put up this foreign policy cheat sheet on what Romney needs to answer in the debate

I'd guess those are the points Obama's going to try to make tonight.

Yep sounds good.

 

[gcubed]

New UNH poll: Obama leads in New Hampshire, 49-41. Likely an outlier, but won't hurt the averages.

yup, but some interesting info that correlates with what everyone else is saying.

When undecided voters are asked which candidate they lean toward, Obama leads 51% to 42% for Romney, with 2% preferring another candidate and 5% remaining undecided

Just like almost every other poll and numerous articles, undecideds breaking for incumbent. Is that what generally happens or is it the challenger?

 

[Crisco]

New UNH poll: Obama leads in New Hampshire, 49-41. Likely an outlier, but won't hurt the averages.

773 seems like a pretty good sized sample. Seems like the state polls with larger sample sizes show better results for Obama.

 

[RustyNails]

Obama needs to make Romney appear as a schoolboy in the big chair. Basically a recreation of #Romneyshambles on live television. Nothing short of that, and the race will be dogged.

Barack better unleash the Black Panther inside him.

 

[PistolGrip]

I assume you meant Romney not Obama?

Watch his communication people speak on the subject. They cant seem to look as though they are whining about the previous administration.

 

[Father_Brain]

Just like almost every other poll and numerous articles, undecideds breaking for incumbent. Is that what generally happens or is it the challenger?

Not sure how generally that happens, but it certainly worked out that way for Bush eight years ago.

 

[Blackheim]

I'd vote against it. It'll get manipulated. If your county is run by republicans they'll probably over charge everything democrats want and their proposals will magically cost nothing.

Its goal is to cut services and scare people against voting for things that would help them.

Yeah, without being able to examine the exact language in the proposal, it was a hard call to make and I tend to give the benefit of the doubt to people that they would do the right thing. The Republican party as a whole have diminished their own image enough to where I will second or triple guess a vote for anything proposed by them :/ Such a shame.

So, what you say makes sense given the context of current Republican politics, thank you

 

[PistolGrip]

Obama's Truth Team put up this foreign policy cheat sheet on what Romney needs to answer in the debate

I'd guess those are the points Obama's going to try to make tonight.

Looks like people are hammering the site. Get some better servers Obama I cant get in!

Can someone rehost or post content.

//never mind I got in.

 

[thefro]

Just like almost every other poll and numerous articles, undecideds breaking for incumbent. Is that what generally happens or is it the challenger?

I think it's different in every election, really.

I wouldn't expect anyone to have more than a 60/40 advantage amongst the remaining undecideds, so you're looking at a point or two max either way.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

I'm putting 4000 on Obama on Intrade. He's got this, don't worry.

If I had money I would put some on Romney below 40%. I was tempted to do it in that Scott Brown race in 2010 but never did. Damn that would have paid off.

 

[Black Mamba]

Has any state had as much volatility in the polling as New Hampshire?



Regarding Cali props, I still haven't done enough research to make decisions yet. We should eventually make a thread as a lot of Cali people on on GAF.

 

[Jackson50]

Obama's Truth Team put up this foreign policy cheat sheet on what Romney needs to answer in the debate

I'd guess those are the points Obama's going to try to make tonight.

If only Romney was not an utter dimwit. I'd like Obama to answer some questions outside "hur dur why u apologize?".

And the thing is.. McCain's ground game was, well, unimpressive.
So to say that their ground presence has improved is, well, unimpressive.

He's still got this.

Should we even take that away? This election projects much closer than 2008 when Obama won by a healthy margin. We should expect Republicans to gain on their 2008 margins. Yet they've barely improved. That's not very worrisome.

 

[ghst]

i've never understood the american political mentality for screaming in the win as soon as anything presents them in advantage.

quite the contrast from the british mentality, i think tucker's law sums it up best:

"If some cunt can fuck something up, that cunt will pick the worst possible time to fucking fuck up because that cunt's a cunt."

 

[jamesinclair]

Any Californians have any insight into Prop 39, the one about taxation on multi-state businesses?

It's one of those ones that sounds good on first blush (and the "no" side is going on about "hurting job creators," which is always a fun time), but I have no real idea what kind of impact it might have.

I know how I'm voting on the other Props, but this one isn't so clear. Anyone?

Is the chamber of commerce against it?

Then there arent enough yeses in the world

 

[Incognito]

cast my ballot for obama earlier today and have to admit was surprised at how long the line was, even for a inconsequential state such as texas. the line was populated by white, elderly voters and nary a young person (besides me) was there. even more disconcerting were the anecdotes i heard while waiting in line. stuff such as "i'm here today because the Romney camp called me such and such times" or "i've never seen a GOP ground game like this" have shaken my faith that the obama camp still has an absolute advantage on the ground. i mean, if they're hitting it hard in texas imagine ohio, or florida and virginia.

 

[Oblivion]

Is there a thread for the debate yet?

Not sure, but if anyone here makes it, use this title: "Official Final Presidential Debate: Please Proceed, Mr. President".

 

[AlteredBeast]

i've never understood the american political mentality for screaming in the win as soon as anything presents them in advantage.

quite the contrast from the british mentality, i think tucker's law sums it up the best:

"If some cunt can fuck something up, that cunt will pick the worst possible time to fucking fuck up because that cunt's a cunt."

Bad news for cunts?

 

[Trurl]

i've never understood the american political mentality for screaming in the win as soon as anything presents them in advantage.

quite the contrast from the british mentality, i think tucker's law sums it up best:

"If some cunt can fuck something up, that cunt will pick the worst possible time to fucking fuck up because that cunt's a cunt."

In America we don't call the people we support "cunts."

>=^[

 

[hydragonwarrior]

Which Obama is winning in, which is why we keep panicking?

Obama is leading but the points difference is too close, and so... we PANIC!!1

 

[PistolGrip]

Has Intrade Obama win ever dropped below 50%?

Even at 60% (current prediction) it seems cheap for an Obama win considering electoral vote.

 

[Loudninja]

Ah huh

Cuccinelli: ‘Hands Are Tied’ On Voter Form Destruction Probe

As reported by Richmond's WTVR, Cuccinelli said that his office “does not have the authority to investigate election matters unless explicitly requested to do so by the State Board of Elections, a local commonwealth’s attorney, or a local electoral board member. No such request has been made to date; and therefore, by law, I do not have the authority to undertake the investigation you have suggested.”

http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/cuccinelli-hands-are-tied-on-request-for-voter

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

Has Intrade Obama win ever dropped below 50%?

Even at 60% it seems cheap for an Obama win considering electoral vote.

Late 2011 he hit a low of 45%

 

[Y2Kev]

cast my ballot for obama earlier today and have to admit was surprised at how long the line was, even for a inconsequential state such as texas. the line was populated by white, elderly voters and nary a young person (besides me) was there. even more disconcerting were the anecdotes i heard while waiting in line. stuff such as "i'm here today because the Romney camp called me such and such times" or "i've never seen a GOP ground game like this" have shaken my faith that the obama camp still has an absolute advantage on the ground. i mean, if they're hitting it hard in texas imagine ohio, or florida and virginia.

Did you also hear "I am concerned about the debt we are leaving our children"

 

[Doc Holliday]

I'm loving Obama's chances to kick ass tonight, I just got reminded that Dan Senor is on Mitts team.

 

[HylianTom]

A bit on that remarkable New Hampshire poll: they were off by 1.5% in 2008. One of the most accurate.

 

[Aaron Strife]

A bit on that remarkable New Hampshire poll: they were off by 1.5% in 2008. One of the most accurate.

Obama's only leading by 6.5 points?

Panic!

 

[Wray]

So what's the polling news today?

 

[cartoon_soldier]

So what's the polling news today?

Decent state, crappy National.

 

[NullPointer]

I've given up on caring about any of these numbers. Both sides should act as if they're losing, fight for every last vote, and I'll either be elated or depressed come the election results, and that's that.

 

[GashPrex]

cast my ballot for obama earlier today and have to admit was surprised at how long the line was, even for a inconsequential state such as texas. the line was populated by white, elderly voters and nary a young person (besides me) was there. even more disconcerting were the anecdotes i heard while waiting in line. stuff such as "i'm here today because the Romney camp called me such and such times" or "i've never seen a GOP ground game like this" have shaken my faith that the obama camp still has an absolute advantage on the ground. i mean, if they're hitting it hard in texas imagine ohio, or florida and virginia.

one of my co-workers was getting calls from a long time buddy of his about Romney today - wanted him to read some reports or something on Iran - we both had a good laugh at his expense

 

[The Librarian]

Obama's only leading by 6.5 points?

Panic!

There was a new NH poll?

 

[Loudninja]

There was a new NH poll?

http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/poll-obama-expands-his-lead-to-9-in

 

[The Librarian]

http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/poll-obama-expands-his-lead-to-9-in

Oho!

 

[hydragonwarrior]

I've given up on caring about any of these numbers. Both sides should act as if they're losing, fight for every last vote, and I'll either be elated or depressed come the election results, and that's that.

C'mon man, panic along with PoliGAF!

 

[Dr. Pangloss]

Man you shouldn't be allowed to both go first and get the last word.

Just to go back to the order of questions at the debate, but this is how it use to be done: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lincoln%E2%80%93Douglas_debate The affirmative always stated their case first and got the closing argument. This was also carried into our legal system with the prosecutor getting to layout his case first, and getting the closing argument. So there is precedent for Romney going first and last at this debate.

 

[NullPointer]

C'mon man, panic along with PoliGAF!

If I wanted to muck about with spreadsheets and various forecasting models I'd rather play Eve Online ;P

I just don't see the fascination.

 

[Dr. Pangloss]

I'm afraid Obama is going to lose.

Just repeat these words:

I must not fear.
Fear is the mind-killer.
Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration.
I will face my fear.
I will permit it to pass over me and through me.
And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path.
Where the fear has gone there will be nothing......Only I will remain.