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[Keio]

FP debate thread is up on OT now.

(Hope I didn't fuck up too badly in that OP!)

Great topic title and OP!

I'm debating myself should I go 3/3 and wake up at 03 AM again. I guess I will.

 

[ZeroRay]

I actually dreamed that I added Diablos on Facebook and he was was flooding my newsfeed with the same kind of posts he made here. Thank you Diablos for invading my subconscious.

 

[The Technomancer]

Wow

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2012/10/staying_classy_1.php?ref=fpblg

Hoooooly shit

 

[Black Republican]

ABC/Wapo

Obama 49- Romney 48

 

[SmokeMaxX]

7-10%?!

Too much for my taste. I would do 5% tops, but I dont need the money that bad.

Yeah it's fairly high, but it's really convenient esp if you're skeptical of bank transfers going through. I've read on the forums that a lot of people's have failed. Also, I heard that there's a fee for those too and I figured it would probably be a percentage off as well. A check sounds nice and cheap but processing takes too long. I just wanted something in my account now and Paypal was easy, convenient, fast, and I didn't have to do anything except sit on my computer for five minutes. Every $500 you put in, a 10% fee would cost you about $83 or so in winnings.

 

[coldfoot]

Only gripe is no PoliGAF sanctioned logo.

But a PoliGAF sanctioned first post I hope!

 

[Aaron Strife]

ABC/Wapo

Obama 49- Romney 48

50-43 with RVs.

 

[SmokeMaxX]

Did you not hear about romney's amazing ground game in Texas? Romney just keeps gaining and obombo keeps free falling

Amazing ground game in Arkansas too. I haven't seen ANY Obama workers here.

Spoiler

lol

 

[RDreamer]

Only gripe is no PoliGAF sanctioned logo.

Bad news for PoliGAF

 

[AniHawk]

ABC/Wapo

Obama 49- Romney 48

*breathes into paper bag*

 

[BotoxAgent]

I actually dreamed that I added Diablos on Facebook and he was was flooding my newsfeed with the same kind of posts he made here. Thank you Diablos for invading my subconscious.

Bad news for Facebook

 

[Black Mamba]

Obama needs to also mention that Romney said he wouldn't go into Pakistan to get Bin Laden.

Make it very clear he said this. And that it shows he can't lead.

 

[Cheebo]

ABC/Wapo

Obama 49- Romney 48

Isn't that a big drop?

 

[Evening Musuko]

Did you not hear about romney's amazing ground game in Texas? Romney just keeps gaining and obombo keeps free falling

I've seen a ton of Obama signs in downtown Houston.

But here in REAL Houston the amount of Romney-Ryan signs and bumper stickers have been increasing these past couple of weeks. Bad news for Obama.

 

[RustyNails]

Isn't that a big drop?

Bad news for small drops

 

[el retorno]

Isn't that a big drop?

Yea I think they had him up by 9 or something crazy. I think it was right before the first debate so I don't think its something to worry about. but this is poliGAF their will be doom

 

[PhoenixDark]

After days of hyping an alleged 42k group of "new" voters making it to the polls in NC, the back track:

the 42,709 number was erroneous

The 42,709 number was erroneous, it was actually about 8,000. MattX (otherwise a fine diarist) misread voter registration totals and lumped in 34,000 late processed mail-in registrationspostmarked on the final day and handled 10/13 to 10/17 with the 8,000 new voters who registered Thursday and Friday during early voting. But he had the party affiliation and race, etc of the 42,709 correct. We don;t know how many of the other 34,000 have/will vote(d)

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/22/1148288/-The-state-of-the-race-in-North-Carolina

Obama will certainly force Romney to waste resources in NC, but he's not winning it. The post also highlights Romney's ground game is indeed better than McCain's - a lot more in NC's case.

 

[Cubsfan23]

Is there some reason that Obama is falling on Intrade? He's down to 59.5% now.

the best barometers are 538 and pinnaclesports.com. Obama 67% fav at both

 

[Cheebo]

Abc says they will do the poll every day. New daily tracker!!

 

[somedevil]

Isn't that a big drop?

Nope he was up 3 with there last poll up 7 with RV. Basically he is still up 7 with RV but 1 with lv now.

 

[electricpirate]

Isn't that a big drop?

No.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/

 

[Black Mamba]

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/oct/21/obama-leads-in-latest-poll-as-romneyloses-bounce/

Obama 50, Romney 47 This was tied before

IBD is Obama +4


ABC was +3 Obama before. +1 is no different.

 

[el retorno]

Who gets called for these polls. I've never know anyone whose been called but with the amount there are I'd figure sooner or later someone I'd know or myself would get called.

 

[eBay Huckster]

I apparently got called for a poll yesterday but didn't pick up my phone.

Now I'm just mad I couldn't troll their LV screen.

 

[AlteredBeast]

But a PoliGAF sanctioned first post I hope!

LOL. Most definitely.

 

[Black Mamba]

Who gets called for these polls. I've never know anyone whose been called but with the amount there are I'd figure sooner or later someone I'd know or myself would get called.

Over 150 million households in America. Most of these have 1000 people in them over 3 days of polling. 10% rate.


Let's just say per day 50k people are called. That's still just 50k out of 150 million+. It would take a month to reach 1% of the population. And that ignores people getting called multiple times.


FWIW, I was called in like March or something.

Sidenote: IMO the national trackers (ignoring Gallup) seems to indicate the race is between Romney +1 to Obama +3. Or in other words, Obama +1 with a MOE of 2 either way.

 

[Half and half]

47% tape should pay dividends again tonight when Romney has to defend his comments saying he'd kick a two state solution down the road.

 

[el retorno]

47% tape should pay dividends again tonight when Romney has to defend his comments saying he'd kick a two state solution down the road.

This is the US presidential election. It won't mean anything to voters but those that already don't like romney.

 

[RustyNails]

47% tape should pay dividends again tonight when Romney has to defend his comments saying he'd kick a two state solution down the road.

I wonder if Bob Schieffer still has balls left, so maybe he can bring it up?

I'm expecting Bob to get trampled like a corn crop on a bad harvest.

 

[electricpirate]

After days of hyping an alleged 42k group of "new" voters making it to the polls in NC, the back track:


http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/22/1148288/-The-state-of-the-race-in-North-Carolina

Obama will certainly force Romney to waste resources in NC, but he's not winning it. The post also highlights Romney's ground game is indeed better than McCain's - a lot more in NC's case.

I agree with you that NC is probably a lost cause, but where do you get the massive improvement in ground game from?

 

[AniHawk]

been at work; summary of polls today so far if possible?

nh: obama +9 (unh)
co: romney +4 (ras)
ia: tie (ras)
oh: obama +5 (quin)
oh: tie (suffolk)
fl: romney +5 (angus reid)

national:
gallup rv: romney +1
gallup lv: romney +6
rand: obama +2
ppp: tie
abc: obama +1
survey usa: romney + 3
politico: romney +2
washington times: obama +3
ibd: obama +4

 

[PhoenixDark]

I agree with you that NC is probably a lost cause, but where do you get the massive improvement in ground game from?

Romney is outpacing McCain's early voting numbers across the country

 

[RustyNails]

nh: obama +9 (unh)
co: romney +4 (ras)
ia: tie (ras)
oh: obama +5 (quin)
oh: tie (suffolk)
fl: romney +5 (angus reid)

national:
gallup rv: romney +1
gallup lv: romney +6
rand: obama +2
ppp: tie
abc: obama +1
survey usa: romney + 3
politico: romney +2
washington times: obama +3
ibd: obama +4

2 polls out of 8 show a Romney lead. Engage panic mode

 

[Black Republican]

I think its time for gaf to start our own presidential polls

what should we call it?

 

[RustyNails]

I think its time for gaf to start our own presidential polls

what should we call it?

Diablos' Rollercoaster of Doom poll!

 

[Jackson50]

Romney is outpacing McCain's early voting numbers across the country

Romney's outpacing McCain in everything. The election is closer. Now, Obama outpacing his performance in 2008 is indicative of a stronger ground game.

 

[electricpirate]

Romney is outpacing McCain's early voting numbers across the country

I'd quibble with the term "A lot"

As of Sunday, Obama had 55.3 percent of the vote based on these educated guesses, compared to 57.7 percent in 2008. That is, Republican-leaning demographics are outperforming their early vote totals from four years ago. However, far more people have voted this year than last cycle, an increase of 38 percent, so while the percentage margin may be narrower, the overall Obama advantage in actual ballots is just slightly off—in 2008, Obama led by 54,584 votes at this point, while this year he currently leads by 52,355—a difference of 2,229.

A pretty modest swing even under the best of circumstances no? Which is pretty much what we see across the country compared to 2008, a very modest improvement in the ground game from a really terrible ground game in 2008 for republicans.

 

[electricpirate]

2 polls out of 8 show a Romney lead. Engage panic mode

Check your count though the concept of the politico poll is pretty terrible. How do you even factor an Aggregated swing state poll into the averages?

 

[AniHawk]

also:

Markos Moulitsas ‏@markos

Just got back the weekly PPP poll for dKos/SEIU, and it's a whole different ball game from last week. Full results Tue morning

State of play heading into tomorrow night in our polling- tied nationally, candidates within 2 pts of each other in 7 of 9 key swing states

Public polls we'll have in the field during the week: Nevada, North Carolina, Colorado

i'll guess that nevada and north carolina are the only ones where it isn't close.

ppp polls from last week:
nh: romney +1
oh: obama +1
va: obama +2 (improved on second poll result, but with smaller sample)
va: obama +1
wa: obama +5
co: obama +3
ct: obama +2
ia: obama +1 (improved on second poll result, but with smaller sample)
ia: romney +1

i will guess that a lot of these will ether be flipped or tied if it's 'a whole different ballgame' and things are within two points of each other.

 

[Oblivion]

Was this posted? Donald Trump says Obama has the worst foreign policy record ever and he had as much to do with killing OBL as Brian Kilmeade did.

 

[Loudninja]

This poll nonsense has really gotten out of hand.

 

[RDreamer]

Apparently that October Surprise twitter is saying they do have a surprise soon and it's related to Trump's announcement. I await hilarity or a rick roll or both.

 

[kirblar]

Is there some reason that Obama is falling on Intrade? He's down to 59.5% now.

Intrade's been below other sites the entire time. I suspect it's an ideological lean.

 

[Loudninja]

Apparently that October Surprise twitter is saying they do have a surprise soon and it's related to Trump's announcement. I await hilarity or a rick roll or both.

Didn't we already go though this?

 

[Half and half]

I wonder if Bob Schieffer still has balls left, so maybe he can bring it up?

I'm expecting Bob to get trampled like a corn crop on a bad harvest.

If nothing else, I'm hoping Obama hits him on it a few times. It's another clear flip-flop to add to the growing pile.

 

[pigeon]

50-43 with RVs.

I have to say, these seven point likely voter gaps are just absurd. If 538 just used the registered voter numbers for everything and applied the two-point correction, or even doubled the normal correction, Obama would still be a favorite to win by September proportions. In terms of the polling universe, not much has changed except that the gap has grown hugely.

One positive note to consider is that this is exactly the universe in which a powerful GOTV operation would pay the highest dividends with the least apparent impact on the polls until Election Day.

 

[Father_Brain]

This could well be another 47% moment for Romney... if the audio of it existed. As it is, I hope this woman is prepared for vicious personal attacks from right-wing blogs.

Appearing on ABC’s The View this past Thursday, Ann Romney claimed that her husband, as governor of Massachusetts, “went to every funeral” of fallen soldiers from the Commonwealth. She spoke of the difficult role he had “to comfort those that have lost a loved one and have gone in harm’s way.”

But Mitt Romney did not attend every soldier’s funeral; there were at least two cases where he did not.

And in one of those cases, a Gold Star mother claims that, far from comforting, Romney left insensitive phone messages – messages that she calls “bullying” and her husband describes as “abusive.”

“I can’t believe you haven’t returned my call,” Romney said on one of the voice mail messages, according to Stephany Kern, speaking at her Westerly, Rhode Island home this past Saturday. “Here I am making a second call; I haven’t heard from you.”

Kern did not save the messages. This is the first time she has spoken publicly about them.

 

[B-Dubs]

Didn't we already go though this?

I thought they did their rick roll already?

 

[The Technomancer]

This could well be another 47% moment for Romney... if the audio of it existed. As it is, I hope this woman is prepared for vicious personal attacks from right-wing blogs.

Sounds like Romney

 

[Baraka in the White House]

This poll nonsense has really gotten out of hand.

.