if everyone can agree that on average, ohio polling is near nevada- that's it. game over.
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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.
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if everyone can agree that on average, ohio polling is near nevada- that's it. game over.
Can't start too early or it will looks suspicious.
Delusibeta
Banned
AFAIK there's no law to actually say that the Electoral College representatives have to follow the instructions the state gives them. It's theoretically possible for Obama to be declared victor in November and then the Electoral College declaring Romney President in January. Of course, that will result in the biggest scandal in recorded history and as such will almost certainly never happen, but it's still theoretically possible.
Let's wait until after the final debate to start popping champagne bottles. Heck, maybe do some phone calls before calling it a day.
Obama's lead in NV and OH has been consistent all year, Romney isn't going to win if Obama gets both of them.
well i mean for the polling averages.
i consider nevada as out of reach for romney as nc is for obama. iowa is probably romney's pie-in-the-sky flip like florida is for obama. co and va are more or less dead heats.
I still have this weird fear of Romney somehow flipping Pennsylvania.
You know what would be a game changer? If Romney found his female Joe the Plumber.
Joan the Plumber?
Joe the woman?
Lost Fragment
Obsessed with 4chan
I know the feeling. I've been afraid of having a 747 crash into my house ever since I saw Donnie Darko as a kid.
I'm kind of concerned over Wisconsin. I know it's illogical, but it's hard not to be when you see literally 15x the yard signs for Romney than for Obama ever time you drive anywhere.
Giant Panda
Member
I was hoping you had a reason why those stories should be ignored.
/nods
Aaron Strife
Banned
Wisconsin is Minnesota's crazy brother. We always need to keep an eye on him...
This is the most bogus, cynical, fake issue. There is zero political motivation for them to have intentionally gotten it wrong. And they didn't even get it wrong.
No one cares about this but sean hannity and the rest of the wingnut frauds. Rmoney was schooled on this in the last debate, and he'll get schooled again if he fixates on this bizarre issue.
early voting there started today. so i'm sure they'll be working hard to make sure it's a sure thing.
if wisconsin flips, obama needs to win iowa and new hampshire in addition to ohio, in the event they lose virginia and colorado.
plus, polling has never shown a lead for romney there. if people are confident about ohio, they should be super confident about wisconsin.
Father_Brain
Banned
National Review's excuse for a polling guru, Josh Jordan, attacks Nate Silver's model without understanding that said model automatically weights polls, rather than polls being manually and arbitrarily weighted according to Silver's pro-Obama biases. Check the comments.
NullPointer
Member
And I'd like to know what people think would have changed if Obama had said exactly what the Fox News brigade seems to have wanted him to say.
I think Nate responded to that:
@fivethirtyeight
If you ran RCP state poll averages through the 538 simulation model, it would come out in the same range (65-70% Obama EC win).
MasterShotgun
brazen editing lynx
I was actually able to have a somewhat reasonable discussion of the two candidates with my mom. We obviously weren't going to change each other's mind. She kept using GOP talking points, and she probably thought I was doing the same. Neither of us would budge. She sort of got me when she brought up "Obama apologizing to other nations". I know for a fact he didn't apologize, but I couldn't cite anything specifically.
I did score a victory when she said she supported a flat tax. All I had to mention was that poor people are hurt more by it and explained why, and we went on to the next topic. She makes a relatively low income, so she might have realized a flat tax would screw her over.
I did score a victory when she said she supported a flat tax. All I had to mention was that poor people are hurt more by it and explained why, and we went on to the next topic. She makes a relatively low income, so she might have realized a flat tax would screw her over.
Giant Panda
Member
Well, first please calm down. Second I care about this issue and I am a huge Obama supporter; I'm sure there are others. Third it does not make any sense that this confusion over the attack has existed so long no matter how it happened, and that's why I came here hoping someone would have answers as the people here are usually pretty knowledgeable.
NullPointer
Member
Seriously. Its not like anything interesting has gone down in Libya lately.
platypotamus
Member
Holy shit @ that comic
I still wish we could see more RV numbers for these state polls; my guess is that Obama's numbers will be closer to RV numbers, given the power of his organization. Turnout in these swing states is going to be close to 80 or 90%, where the vast majority of voters are automatically "likely voters."
I thought Obama's problem was playing cozy with the terrorists lol. Can't win no matter what.
Well, this is why I want you to link some other stories. I mean, this is from the one you linked:
daily beast said:
So my response to this story, which says that I am correct, is that it's correct, and that the administration did not have solid information as to the fact that it was a planned terrorist attack rather than a reaction to the video. The lede of the story, which makes claims contradictory to the body of the story, should be disregarded as unsupported.
Here's a brief look on how the CIA functions: when something like this happens, the guy on the Libya desk calls all their sources -- let's say they have five. One is dead. One is MIA. Two say "oh yeah, it was because of the video." The last guy, maybe, says "I heard that it was an Al-Qaeda plot!" When he writes the official briefing, this looks basically like "a violent reaction to the anti-Muslim video that may have been used as a vehicle by Al-Qaeda forces." Because the CIA guy has multiple contradictory stories and has to put them together into one sentence for the President. You'll note that this is basically what Obama hedges on in his speech and in other places where they ask him for comment -- it was about the video AND it might've been a terrorist plot. Meanwhile the CIA is scrambling to get more reliable sources so they can tell which is which.
In a few days the MIA guy checks back in and says "yeah, Al-Qaeda plot." Now the briefing says "information is still unclear as to whether this was a planned assault by Al-Qaeda or merely an uprising due to the video." After a week or two, having gathered more sources (including some hostile sources, probably), the briefing finally starts saying "an attack planned in advance by Al-Qaeda that used the video as a scapegoat," and that's what the administration starts saying too.
The problem with intelligence is that people so often don't have it.
speculawyer
Member
You can't prove a negative. It is up to her to provide examples of such alleged apologies.
Thequietone
Member
I've said it before and I'll say it again. Obama has not apologized for America and even if he did why is that a bad thing? We've done some messed up shit to the world and still continue to do it even though we supposedly know better.
Posted yet?
New CBS poll is 48-46 O
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162...ight-race/?tag=cbsnewsHardNewsFDArea;fdmodule
The only difference in all these national polls (outside of Gallup) is the LV screen.
New CBS poll is 48-46 O
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162...ight-race/?tag=cbsnewsHardNewsFDArea;fdmodule
The only difference in all these national polls (outside of Gallup) is the LV screen.
you just know bob scheiffer massaged those numbers.
speculawyer
Member
I'm wondering . . . did the Obama team set a trap for the "Please proceed, Governor" moment? The right-wing media bubble world is known to come up with its own conspiracy theories that are treated as fact within the bubble. Things like birtherism.
I wonder if the Obama team surveyed the current conspiracy theories and located various facts that prove them false and put them into Obama's debate training materials. Then, if Romney were foolish enough to dispute any of those facts he could push back hard. (And in that case was supported by Candy's real-time fact check.)
I just think it was a bit odd about how Obama immediately said "Read the transcript!" And indeed, the transcript included the exact phrase he used that Romney disputed ('Act of Terror').
I wonder if the Obama team surveyed the current conspiracy theories and located various facts that prove them false and put them into Obama's debate training materials. Then, if Romney were foolish enough to dispute any of those facts he could push back hard. (And in that case was supported by Candy's real-time fact check.)
I just think it was a bit odd about how Obama immediately said "Read the transcript!" And indeed, the transcript included the exact phrase he used that Romney disputed ('Act of Terror').
RustyNails
Member
Well could your mom name one instance where Obama apologized?
The Librarian
Banned
Haven't had a chance to read it yet, but J. Cohn linked this on Twitter: Nobody mentions climate change. But somebody did something about it.
Frank the Great
Banned
polls are continuing to converge on O +2. very nice.
NullPointer
Member
I'd think it more likely that there was some internal debate on the exact wording to use in that Rose Garden statement, so it was easy to recall.
I'm not exactly sure where the mentality started but somehow the USA has gotten an image of absolute arrogance (can do no wrong) and there is a sizable part of the population that has seized on this nationalism as if even admitting America can do wrong is treasonous. My gut tells me it started in cold war era and got really bad after the soviet collapse during the Reagan years. It 'climaxed' during the Bush years where they started parading around descent for the office and its Foreign Policy as treasonous idea and it stuck for a while in right wing circles and media. Now the right wing echo chamber is so far up its ass it doesn't realize not everyone thinks its a bad idea to admit the USA and its government can do wrong and that having allies is more important then grand standing. Its one of the most polarized part of 'right vs left' in the USA right now and it stems from a group of people who believe "America can do no wrong, only people can wrong America." So the idea of apologizing is blasphemous to this group and right wing candidates constantly pander to this group of people, unfortunately it is a fairly large group of people.
It would not suprise me, Obama's campaign is one of the best we have ever seen. Its how he beat the Clintons and if you ever watched Romney you knew how to get him riled up
PhoenixDark
Banned
That NRO article on Silver is laughable. It's also a bit of a self fulfilling argument in the sense that Jordan admits Obama could still win, but if he does it won't explain why Silver was so wrong in mid October.
It eeks of the tired argument that polls influence the behavior of low information voters. IE if republicans see Romney down, they won't give him a chance - thus skewed polling is the equivalent of voter suppression. Likewise if Silver is showing an Obama victory even when polls (allegedly) don't reflect that, democrats will vote because they're enthused.
It eeks of the tired argument that polls influence the behavior of low information voters. IE if republicans see Romney down, they won't give him a chance - thus skewed polling is the equivalent of voter suppression. Likewise if Silver is showing an Obama victory even when polls (allegedly) don't reflect that, democrats will vote because they're enthused.
Why are they all doing this national poll crap? You want headlines, do an Ohio poll.
Hell yes.
Heck, I want daily landline/cellphone/live interviewer polls for NH/VA/NC/FL/OH/WI/IA/CO/NV. Every day!
Hhm. I think we need MOAR POLLS!
MasterShotgun
brazen editing lynx
Damn. I should have asked her. I was mostly trying to get her to specifically state her stances on a variety of topics. It was a thirty minute car ride and I wanted to several different bases. If it comes up again, I'll be sure to press her.
EDIT: I just realized that I forgot to point out Romney's statement the night it happened. I really dropped the ball on that topic. Obama better do a much better job than I did.
Not as exciting?
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