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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.

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Bowdz

Member
I think Romney gave the Obama campaign enough ammo during all three debates (especially tonight) to continue the "Romnesia" flip flopper line of attack through until election day. Obama really seemed in his element on Friday when he started the line of attack and it seems like it could be fairly successful at undermining Romney. Now all that's left is the final jobs report next Friday.
 
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jbug617

Banned
We couldn't wait for the Gallup LV at 1 tomorrow. Calm down, the President had a good night and I think there might be some problems for Romney concerning him agreeing with the President so much. He has to walk that back a lot during his stump speeches.
 
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Black Mamba

Member
A528fK7CEAEwhYd-jpg_052713.jpg


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7BvgzAVyMHY
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Always fascinating to watch Obama talk about the "international community" and how the way you control an enemy country is to "isolate" them. His ability to translate his community organizing skills to diplomacy is probably the brightest spot of his Presidency.
 
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PhoenixDark

Banned
lol @ the "Romney won by looking presidential and calm" argument coming from the (nearly entire) right. Does that mean Obama won the first debate?
 
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Black Mamba

Member
The right is trying to claim Obama gaffed on sequestration by saying it won't happen.

Except that:

A, he's right. That's the whole point and everyone in Washington knows it

B. swing and undecided voters are too stupid to understand it, anyway. Hell, they've never even heard the word before tonight.
 
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PhoenixDark

Banned
If Romney's "momentum" doesn't end across the board in the next week it'll bode well for him. But I tend to think Obama has done enough to perhaps take this race back to a consistent lead for himself.

Now it's all about the state races. There will probably be no more major stories that swing things, unless the jobs report is really bad.
 
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AniHawk

Member
Dax01 said:
Well, to be fair, I've been getting the impression that you've been worrying yourself with over-analysis of polling data from previous posts. :p
Click to expand...

math was my favorite subject from elementary school through high school. i just really like playing around with numbers. it's partially why i was drawn to the sales threads back in the day and why i still find interest in the box office threads.

with polls that come out with early voting splits and the like, it's much more fun to do bullshit math and find *an* answer.

the only time i was truly 100% concerned was the friday before the second debate, right after the vp debate, and i made a huge dumb post about it. everything else has been my imagination running a little wild with speculation.
 
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AniHawk

Member
PhoenixDark said:
If Romney's "momentum" doesn't end across the board in the next week it'll bode well for him. But I tend to think Obama has done enough to perhaps take this race back to a consistent lead for himself.

Now it's all about the state races. There will probably be no more major stories that swing things, unless the jobs report is really bad.
Click to expand...

doesn't the jobs report come out on a friday? won't that be way too early to report it on november 2?
 
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jmls1121

Banned
Because I was curious, I am now watching the re-run of CNN's post-debate analysis.

I don't even care about the right leaning, I really don't. Its the stupidity...they are talking like their core audience have an IQ of 50 or are simply brain dead. It is so weird.
 
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AniHawk

Member
fivethirtyeight-1016-debatechange1-blog480.jpg


not sure about what the second debate produced, or if things kept sliding towards romney, but obama might get somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5 points back, and maybe some more if people were really really convinced.

and actually, in 77.8% of all the 'final' debates, the incumbent gained points. not sure if gore had as strong third debate, but there was only one debate in 1980(?). averaging out all final debates, the incumbent gains 1.2 points. the 1980 debate was the first, and that seemed to play more in the line with the challenger gaining on the incumbent. if you include all second-and-final debates with third-and-final debates, the incumbent gains, on average, 1.7 points- which is pretty damn close to what the incumbent gains in third-and-final alone.
 
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apana

Member
PhoenixDark said:
If Romney's "momentum" doesn't end across the board in the next week it'll bode well for him. But I tend to think Obama has done enough to perhaps take this race back to a consistent lead for himself.

Now it's all about the state races. There will probably be no more major stories that swing things, unless the jobs report is really bad.
Click to expand...

I mostly agree. I think Obama has done enough to keep Ohio, Iowa, and Wisconsin which are the key states he needs to hold. I still think it will be close to a 50-50 split popular vote wise but lets see. Eventhough Obama started doing much better in the debates I am still glad they are over. Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan usually end up looking acceptable enough even if they don't win. He has the clear advantage as far as traditional campaigning goes though.
 
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jbug617

Banned
PhoenixDark said:
If Romney's "momentum" doesn't end across the board in the next week it'll bode well for him. But I tend to think Obama has done enough to perhaps take this race back to a consistent lead for himself.

Now it's all about the state races. There will probably be no more major stories that swing things, unless the jobs report is really bad.
Click to expand...

do you think that the split it still going to happen (Romney Popular and Obama Electoral)?
 
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speculawyer

Member
Forever said:
_63592042_worldservicepoll_464_obama_embargoed23102012.gif
Click to expand...

Pakistan wants Romney more than Obama? LOL

I'm guessing that is because Obama violated their airspace on a certain mission?


And why does France hate Romney so much? Are they still bitter about his visit back in the 60's?

France likes Obama more than his home country of Kenya. ;-)
 
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