PhoenixDark
Banned
I didn't realize this wrench in that plan lol. If its not reported I bet we will see lots of conspiracies
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.
- Thread starter Amir0x
- Start date
- Status
I didn't realize this wrench in that plan lol. If its not reported I bet we will see lots of conspiracies
Nate has the chance of a popular/electoral split at 5.9% currently. I'll be watching over the next week to see if anything shrinks this chance. I can't see Romney losing a lot of his advantage down here in the South after tonight, but who knows?
Bingo. If he holds the Gore/Kerry States and adds Nevada (which is looking really solid now), this gets him to 263EVs. Colorado or Ohio or Virginia or Florida will do the trick.
Bingo. If he holds the Gore/Kerry States and adds Nevada (which is looking really solid now), this gets him to 263EVs. Colorado or Ohio or Virginia or Florida will do the trick.
He'd be at 281 with OH, WI, IA
Again, if we assume Nevada is in Obama's pocket along with Michigan and Pennsylvania, here are his paths to victory:
* OH + WI
* OH + IA + any swing state
* OH + CO + any swing state
* IA + CO + WI + NH (some possible substitutions here with VA, FL)
Here's what Romney needs:
* every state except OH and one of IA/CO
* OH + NC + VA + FL + any swing state (or substitutions with CO, WI, etc.)
Not so bad.
* OH + WI
* OH + IA + any swing state
* OH + CO + any swing state
* IA + CO + WI + NH (some possible substitutions here with VA, FL)
Here's what Romney needs:
* every state except OH and one of IA/CO
* OH + NC + VA + FL + any swing state (or substitutions with CO, WI, etc.)
Not so bad.
I think it was a rather clever performance by Romney.
All he had to do was to show the undecideds that he is "electable", i.e. no BushII, and not running into another war (Iran) before the snow melts. His defensive posturing should rather help him there.
So in the end, I expect another upturn in the polls for him.
All he had to do was to show the undecideds that he is "electable", i.e. no BushII, and not running into another war (Iran) before the snow melts. His defensive posturing should rather help him there.
So in the end, I expect another upturn in the polls for him.
For the last time, debates don't change anything. The truth about the first debate is that the media wanted a horserace so bad that they were going to call it a Romney win regardless. Obama was passive and it played right into their script. Dems piled on Obama instead of attacking Mitt's lies and the 2 weeks of negative coverage from all angles is what moved the numbers (of folks who were always going to go with the GOP in the end or stay home)
Assuming Romney also gets NC, FL, and VA. He can get NC, and FL, but I'm not convinced he'll get VA without a fight.
polyh3dron
Banned
Well yeah he showed that he's like that this week, his positions were different last week and I'm sure they'll change again next week.
One thing I really enjoyed hearing on PBS after the debate? The sheer enormosity of impact that Obama's groumd game will have in Ohio. I think it was Halperin who said it was unlike anything he's ever seen - an incredible accomplishment. They were talking of the prospect that Obama's ground organization could add a point or two to each state.
Romney already has a tight rope to walk.. but he also has to do it against Obama's machine.
Romney already has a tight rope to walk.. but he also has to do it against Obama's machine.
Reading conservative websites after a debate loss is amazing. You gotta hand it to them, they are completely dedicated to their bs. After the first debate, liberal websites ripped the president, and rightly so. Conservatives on the other hand see only gold from Romney even though they will all rip him to pieces if he loses in November and you can be sure some conservatives will point to the last 2 debates for criticism.
IrishNinja
Member
wait, am i reading that right? he takes OH and FL and that's it? goddamn that's not reassuring
MasterShotgun
brazen editing lynx
On the BLS site, the report is scheduled to be released on Nov. 2. There are numerous examples of reports being released early in the month. The best recent example is the May 2012 report that was released on June 1.
So unfortunately, I don't think we'll be lucky enough to have the next jobs report delayed til after the election. But as long as it doesn't go back above 8%, Obama should be fine.
assuming he already has florida and virginia and north carolina, romney would have to win ohio, and either iowa, new hampshire, colorado, wisconsin, or nevada.
Sorry. That was super unclear because I wasn't counting the southern swing states, as SmokeManX noted. I edited for more clarity.
How much of an impact do people think Gary Johnson will have? Of the few polls I have seen with him included, he only gets a few percentage points outside of CO, NM, and NV, but in a close election where candidates are tied, that could make the difference. Does anyone think Johnson will deliver NV and CO to Obama? Will he have any impact on the FL race?
Black Mamba
Member
It's pretty impossible to measure his impact because a lot of people in swing states may decide last minute not to waste their vote.
My belief is he will take some votes away from Mitt overall. Enough to make a difference in a swing state? I don't know.
Ohio is not going to go for Romney, certainly not with this little time left. Not with Mitt's attitude towards the Auto bailout, not with Mandel embarassing himself and not with polling that hasn't shown any semblance of a shift towards him ever in this election.
Mitt has to flip states to win, Obama doesn't. And worst case scenario, the debate solidified the way things are now. Best case, they improved them for Obama.
Can anyone think of an instance where a state was supposedly in the bag for a candidate in the polls leading up to election day, and then as it turns out the other guy won the state? How often does that happen? Am I crazy in thinking Bush getting Tennessee in 2000? Anything more recent?
Wasn't Indiana kind of like that in 2008?
Sure. But will that matter?
The few people that are still undecided, are probably swing voters that voted Obama in 2008, and are reluctant to do so now. All they want to be is reassured that Romney is no rightwing nutjob, and yesterdays performance should help him in this regard.
IrishNinja
Member
god, that's how you know the electoral college needs to go
look at that map, and tell me why flyover states determine primaries, much less elections.
i mean my homestate of FL is huge but it's pretty well established even we shouldn't be the shotcallers here
pretty fair point...i was wishing obama would go after romney's talk in the primaries of preemptive strike on iran; at least, i recall ever non-ron paul GOP candidate co-signing that nonsense
look at that map, and tell me why flyover states determine primaries, much less elections.
i mean my homestate of FL is huge but it's pretty well established even we shouldn't be the shotcallers here
pretty fair point...i was wishing obama would go after romney's talk in the primaries of preemptive strike on iran; at least, i recall ever non-ron paul GOP candidate co-signing that nonsense
Fox talking points.
I think this is going to hurt Romney to some small degree at least just because, like Obama in the first debate, he didn't want to engage, he sounded uncertain, he agreed a lot, and he basically looked the whole time like he didn't want to be there. Obama's first performance was painful because people had invested in an image of Obama as a fighter for the left and had that image dashed. Romney's image as the dynamic John Galt figure got shattered tonight.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Good news for Romney.
Mgoblue201
Won't stop picking the right nation
McCain was favored, but Obama still tied or led in several polls leading up to the election. And the financial crisis was probably a large reason why the election shifted so decisively in Obama's favor. There is no analogous event in this election that could possibly change the dynamics of the race.
how has october looked in the past? generally good (leading into the holiday season)? any indicators to see if things aren't getting worse or are improving?
The debate felt, as if they weren´t debating each other.
Romney debated Bush, to show how he´s different to him.
Obama debated Obama 2008, to show he didn´t too bad from his promises.
Listened to the last 30 minutes of the debate, gg Obama.
It was funny. The dudes on Fox News Radio came out in defense of Romney saying he was "professional" and reserved. Kinda like the damage control you heard from Dems when Bams shit the bed in Denver. We know what it means: Your guy lost.
It was funny. The dudes on Fox News Radio came out in defense of Romney saying he was "professional" and reserved. Kinda like the damage control you heard from Dems when Bams shit the bed in Denver. We know what it means: Your guy lost.
Rocket Scientist
Member
Just saw Romney's answer to the first question regarding Libyia. Bahahahahahahahaha! I know answers routinely diverge from the question, but holy cow he was so scared to even look at the question let alone attempt to answer it directly.
cartoon_soldier
Member
Obama can't lose OH
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
There was damage control? Seemed more like damage exacerbation.
Huh, I think I remember something like that. I just hope the election isn't predictable. I like some excitement. Priorities.
speculawyer
Member
Virgil Goode on the ballot in VA may be the pivotal 3rd party guy. He was a pretty conservative Virginia Congressman with a nativist bent. He may take a few percent from Romney thus handing it to Obama.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virgil_Goode
cartoon_soldier
Member
So apparently media is playing up Romney as the candidate of peace.
I think no matter the result here, this Election will forever change how campaigns are handled = Lie FTW
I think no matter the result here, this Election will forever change how campaigns are handled = Lie FTW
speculawyer
Member
Obama can lose Ohio . . . but he'll need NV, CO, Iowa, and NH:
http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=OAV
Colorado is probably the toughest of those.
According to the media, the first debate already did that
Yeah, if any tossup goes to Obama, it's going to be VA and I feel pretty good about it now. If any swing state was going to be moved by tonight's debate, it's Virginia.
Who is this media you are talking about? You gotta be more specific if it's fox news, cnn, or whatever.
I was reminded of Gov. O'Malley's "dignified reserve" commentary which was pretty lolz.
Rocket Scientist
Member
That's what I was thinking and ''Holy shit liberal media bias what now?!''
As for Obama's follow up on that question: HOLY SHIT. It should be illegal to burn someone that much during a debate. I am so fucking dissapointed that I wasn't able to see it happen live.
cartoon_soldier
Member
Politico, Buzzfeed.
Rocket Scientist
Member
Obama fudged up the status of forces shit... I guess it doesn't work with the ''We pulled out, Romney wants to go back in'' narrative. They shouldn't have made it their takling point if they didn't want to accept the status of forces stuff.
MasterShotgun
brazen editing lynx
Apart from Oct 2008 and 2009, October seems to be very quiet. I looked all the way back to Oct 2000 and unemployment in almost every month hardly moved. So historically, things look good.
On a side note, good lord at the UE rate in Oct 2000. 3.9% is ridiculously low.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Unless the number coming out is recording breaking in a good or bad way all that stuff is factored in already. It won't change many minds.
The Librarian
Banned
Mitt was anything but confident in that debate. Unless sweating is a sign of confidence nowadays.
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked