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[AniHawk]

Apart from Oct 2008 and 2009, October seems to be very quiet. I looked all the way back to Oct 2000 and unemployment in almost every month hardly moved. So historically, things look good.

On a side note, good lord at the UE rate in Oct 2000. 3.9% is ridiculously low.

thanks. as long as things don't get dramatically worse, obama should at least squeak out a win thanks to ohio.

 

[Rocket Scientist]

Mitt was anything but confident in that debate. Unless sweating is a sign of confidence nowadays.

He constantly looks like he wants to cry. His poker face is the worst. It was bad in previous debates, but it's crazy in this one.

GOP part of peace, oh god. This is an insane election.

 

[AniHawk]

rand increased.

+1.87 yesterday to +1.90 today!

 

[pigeon]

I don't understand where this idea of momentum comes from. Romney didn't slowly float up, he jumped up after the first debate. It just took a while for the polls to cover enough territory to reflect that. And he's obviously stopped gaining at this point. Does this popular "momentum" concept have actual evidence behind it, or is it purely gut metaphor abuse?

 

[The Librarian]

rand increased.

+1.87 yesterday to +1.90 today!

OBAMAMENTUM

 

[Mgoblue201]

According to the media, the first debate already did that

I mean from this point on. There are no game changers left, unless something unpredictable happens. And though I blame the media for being far too concerned with projecting a horse race narrative than doing their job fact-checking, I think it's also clear that voters thought Romney had decisively won the first debate. Most of Obama's surge following the DNC was probably superficial at best and didn't represent any real long-term support. The shift back toward Romney was probably a real thing that signified voter discontent in a bad economy. All Romney had to do was look confident and decisive and competent to effect that shift.

Anyway, getting back to the point about Indiana, the polls starting in late October of 2008 showed a fairly even race. From the 18th on, it was +2 O, +10 O, +4 O, +2 M, +1 O, tie, +1 O, +3 M, tie, tie, +1 O, +5 M. That average actually favored Obama, so it isn't really an example of a candidate losing a state that he clearly should have won.

 

[Zzoram]

Mitt went first debate Obama this time. He even did the "looking down and taking notes too often, looking like I'm sleeping" thing.

 

[Black Mamba]

The analysis about Romney being confident is misplaced.


Romney's foreign policy has always been 90% of Obama's. There is very little wiggle room. The 10% difference he has is quite unpopular among the rest of the moderates (like staying longer in Iraq or Afghan).

The foreign policy debate was ALWAYS going to be similar to tonight. And he didn't attack on Libya because he got hit hard last time on the timeline and the info that has come out since is not on his side. He would look foolish to play politics there again. Mitt going further right would be dumb and staying where he was before would open him to attacks.

The real issue is that this debate wasn't necessary. This should have been 30 min on foreign policy and 1 hour on other things. We got through 3 debates with no questions on abortion, gay marriage, affirmative action (coming up on SCOTUS), SCOTUS judges, drugs/marijuana, social security, etc.

PS: Rand has Mitt and Obama up slightly with Obama gaining by a minuscule amount. Still Obama +2. Plus side, still making gains in Ohio and Fla in it. But GOP enthusiasm to vote highest ever.

 

[Rocket Scientist]

Romney insinuating that we couldn't imagine 9/11 happening? Yeah because presidents should look for journalists' questions during debates as their guidelines for policy and not actual inteligence briefings.

 

[The Chosen One]

Gotta give credit to the conservative media and pundits. They came locked and loaded tonight with the synchronous post-debate spin. This debate literally was the mirror image of the first debate with Obama this time looking in control and aggressive while Romney looked passive and uncomfortable. Yet the conservative media/pundits conceded zero ground after the debate claiming he appeared calm and presidential basically ignoring all the substance of what he actually said. Clearly this was a pre-planned talking point because he often didn't look very presidential when he was sweating, squirming, and stuttering. But because the conservative media/pundits were in lockstep and sang in unison, almost every post debate show on TV had the debate as a "tie" or a "slight" Obama win.

I've mentioned this before, but the first debate was not only a failure on the President for not prepping long enough but it was a failure on the liberal/progressive media for going into instant panic mode. The polls were probably always going to tighten up a bit but with progressives and dem surrogates panicing and admitting defeat, it fed the media narrative that Obama completely bombed the first debate and Romney had a resounding win.

For a neutral watching the debate tonight, there's no way they could come away saying it wasn't a clear win for Obama. Maybe one's partisan slant might dictate just how big a victory it was but no neutral observer could say the debate was "tied" or a Romney win. On substance, romney provided almost zero contrast on policy, he abandoned previous positions, and he didn't defend himself when Obama made strong foreign policy attacks on him. On style, while Romney was calmer than in previous debates he also looked terribly uncomfortable times by the sweating, stuttering, and rambling. There's a reason the CBS flash poll had a 30 point win margin for Obama.

Despite all the flash polls showing a convincing win for Obama, the conservative media managed clamp down on the pundit class and have the consensus as a near "tie". It's just amazing how conservatives are able to spin and twist the media into the exact pretzel shape they want while also proclaiming to be the victim of the "liberal" media. This debate season has shown just how effective they are at it.

 

[ErasureAcer]

Just finished the debate back from the Bears game at the bar. Obama won or pushed on every topic.

Where Obama won:

Bayonettes.
His campaigning in Israel.
Payton/9-11.
China.
Closing statement.

Everything else I thought was a draw.

Where's some good reaction? How did the snap polls come out?

Oh yes...and Obama has the better tailor. Nice wrinkle free suit. Romney's scrunches at the shoulders.

 

[Angry Grimace]

wait, am i reading that right? he takes OH and FL and that's it? goddamn that's not reassuring

OH and FL by themselves, no, but its not a vacuum, if Romney pulls OH he's going to pull practically all of the other states he needs. Most people aren't really seeing FL as a toss-up and putting it in the Romney column either just to avoid pinning hopes on it and/or because they actually believe that the numbers showing Romney pulling away there. Obama somehow pulling FL out would be a serious gut punch that would practically knock Romney out on its own, but its just not very likely.

 

[Black Mamba]

Gotta give credit to the conservative media and pundits. They came locked and loaded tonight with the synchronous post-debate spin. This debate literally was the mirror image of the first debate with Obama this time looking in control and aggressive while Romney looked passive and uncomfortable. Yet the conservative media/pundits conceded zero ground after the debate claiming he appeared calm and presidential basically ignoring all the substance of what he actually said. Clearly this was a pre-planned talking point because he often didn't look very presidential when he was sweating, squirming, and stuttering. But because the conservative media/pundits were in lockstep and sang in unison, almost every post debate show on TV had the debate as a "tie" or a "slight" Obama win.

I've mentioned this before, but the first debate was not only a failure on the President for not prepping long enough but it was a failure on the liberal/progressive media for going into instant panic mode. The polls were probably always going to tighten up a bit but with progressives and dem surrogates panicing and admitting defeat, it fed the media narrative that Obama completely bombed the first debate and Romney had a resounding win.

For a neutral watching the debate tonight, there's no way they could come away saying it wasn't a clear win for Obama. Maybe one's partisan slant might dictate just how big a victory it was but no neutral observer could say the debate was "tied" or a Romney win. On substance, romney provided almost zero contrast on policy, he abandoned previous positions, and he didn't defend himself when Obama made strong foreign policy attacks on him. On style, Romney was calmer than in previous debates also looked terribly uncomfortable times by the sweating, stuttering, and rambling. There's a reason the CBS flash poll had a 30 point win margin for Obama.

Despite all the flash polls showing a convincing win for Obama, the conservative media managed clamp down on the pundit class and have the consensus as a near "tie". It's just amazing how conservatives are able to spin and twist the media into the exact pretzel shape they want while also proclaiming to be the victim of the "liberal" media. This debate season has shown just how effective they are at it.

Like I said, liberals don't understand how to shill.

I still say in MSNBC didn't melt down and CNN played it to be a tie, things would have been vastly different in reaction. Mitt still gains, but by half the amount IMO.

 

[mckmas8808]

Chuck Todd said that Obama came prepared and Romney didn't and was too cautious.

 

[Black Mamba]

Holy shit, Romney used the "Syria is Iran's route to the sea" in many times this year, including in the primaries.

yet used it again, tonight.

Maybe one of the few bright spots in the Middle East developments in the last year has been the rising of the people in Syria against [President Bashar al-] Assad. Obviously, as you know, Syria is Iran’s only Arab ally in the region. Syria is the route that allows Iran to supply Hezbollah with weapons in Lebanon. Syria is Iran’s route to the sea.”

We’ve puzzled over this comment for a while. When the presumptive GOP nominee referred to Syria as Iran’s “route to the sea” during the Arizona GOP debate in February, we figured it was just a slip of the tongue.

But then a reader counted at least five times in which Romney has used this phrase, including in the Feb. 22 debate, at last month’s American Israel Public Affairs Committee annual conference, in a TV interview (MSNBC, Dec. 21), on the radio (Kilmeade & Friends, Feb. 14) and even in a Washington Post interview (Feb. 10).

Considering that Syria shares no border with Iran — Iraq and Turkey are in the way — and that Iran has about 1,500 miles of coastline along the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman, leading to the Arabian Sea, the reader wanted to know: What’s Romney talking about?

This is the explanation provided by the Romney campaign: “It is generally recognized that Syria offers Iran strategic basing/staging access to the Mediterranean as well as to terrorist proxies in the Levant. This is a large reason why Iran invests so much in Syria.”
The campaign also noted that the Boston Globe had looked into this statement at the time of the Arizona debate.

The Globe noted that “given that Iran borders the sea, it seems to be an odd claim that Syria is Iran’s route to the sea.” The newspaper noted that Iran is able to reach the Mediterranean through the Suez Canal. But it said that “Romney’s comments are more accurate than they first seem,” citing a news report that Iran was building an army base in Syria and quoting an expert on the importance of Syria to Iran.

We also checked with other experts, many of whom confessed to being puzzled by Romney’s comments. Tehran certainly uses Syria to supply the militant groups Hezbollah and Hamas, but that has little to do with the water. The relationship with Syria could also effectively allow Iran to project its power to the Mediterranean and the border with Israel.
But does that really mean, “a route to the sea”?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...te-to-the-sea/2012/04/18/gIQAgTbXRT_blog.html

Article is from April. Why does he keep using this phrase?

 

[Farmboy]

I've mentioned this before, but the first debate was not only a failure on the President for not prepping long enough but it was a failure on the liberal/progressive media for going into instant panic mode. The polls were probably always going to tighten up a bit but with progressives and dem surrogates panicing and admitting defeat, it fed the media narrative that Obama completely bombed the first debate and Romney had a resounding win.

You're absolutely right. That the majority GOP pundits are claiming it's one win and three ties (counting Ryan-Biden) for Team Romney should tell you pretty much everything you need to know about the actual score. But their message discipline is pretty awe-inspiring.

It's not something I hope the Dems actually carbon-copy in the future, as their more open and honest attitude is one of the prime reasons they're preferable to the GOP, but the widespread panic is unnecessary. A little goes a long way here. If anyone saw Brian Schweitzer on Maher shortly after the first debate: that's how I think it's done: honestly acknowledge that Romney 'won', but do that once or twice, and mostly just hammer him on the way he won -- which was by lying.

 

[anonymous_abc]

Holy shit, Romney used the "Syria is Iran's route to the sea" in many times this year, including in the primaries.

yet used it again, tonight.





http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...te-to-the-sea/2012/04/18/gIQAgTbXRT_blog.html

Article is from April. Why does he keep using this phrase?

maybe no one has bothered clearing it up for him x)

 

[norinrad]

Mitt: Visit my webiste if you want to know about my policies.

What a joke, who the hell says that during a debate?

 

[Rocket Scientist]

Mitt: Visit my webiste if you want to know about my policies.

What a joke, who the hell says that during a debate?

...Are you me? I JUST saw that part of the debate.

The way he pronounced ''the poor'' made me shudder.

Aaaaand he claims yet again that he balanced the olympics.

 

[IrishNinja]

But GOP enthusiasm to vote highest ever.

how exactly is this calculated?

 

[speculawyer]

how exactly is this calculated?

They put blood flow monitors on their penises.

 

[Hobbestetrician]

how exactly is this calculated?

I think we found what became of the Vitality Sensor.

 

[apana]

Gotta give credit to the conservative media and pundits. They came locked and loaded tonight with the synchronous post-debate spin. This debate literally was the mirror image of the first debate with Obama this time looking in control and aggressive while Romney looked passive and uncomfortable. Yet the conservative media/pundits conceded zero ground after the debate claiming he appeared calm and presidential basically ignoring all the substance of what he actually said. Clearly this was a pre-planned talking point because he often didn't look very presidential when he was sweating, squirming, and stuttering. But because the conservative media/pundits were in lockstep and sang in unison, almost every post debate show on TV had the debate as a "tie" or a "slight" Obama win.

I've mentioned this before, but the first debate was not only a failure on the President for not prepping long enough but it was a failure on the liberal/progressive media for going into instant panic mode. The polls were probably always going to tighten up a bit but with progressives and dem surrogates panicing and admitting defeat, it fed the media narrative that Obama completely bombed the first debate and Romney had a resounding win.

For a neutral watching the debate tonight, there's no way they could come away saying it wasn't a clear win for Obama. Maybe one's partisan slant might dictate just how big a victory it was but no neutral observer could say the debate was "tied" or a Romney win. On substance, romney provided almost zero contrast on policy, he abandoned previous positions, and he didn't defend himself when Obama made strong foreign policy attacks on him. On style, while Romney was calmer than in previous debates he also looked terribly uncomfortable times by the sweating, stuttering, and rambling. There's a reason the CBS flash poll had a 30 point win margin for Obama.

Despite all the flash polls showing a convincing win for Obama, the conservative media managed clamp down on the pundit class and have the consensus as a near "tie". It's just amazing how conservatives are able to spin and twist the media into the exact pretzel shape they want while also proclaiming to be the victim of the "liberal" media. This debate season has shown just how effective they are at it.

The post debate spin and polls can only have so much effect. At the end of the day it really is what happens in the debate that sways people. Sure having a bandwagon helps but Mitt Romney would likely be in a similar position even if democrats tried to sugarcoat what happened during the first debate.

 

[mckmas8808]

Now Chuck Todd Just said that Romney gave more of a book report, than engage in a debate. And that conservatives are slightly upset at Romney for not responding to Obama's zingers.

 

[IrishNinja]

Now Chuck Todd Just said that Romney gave more of a book report, than engage in a debate. And that conservatives are slightly upset at Romney for not responding to Obama's zingers.

staying quiet and taking a beating is how you win undecided friends and look strong
at least that's what i told myself when i got beat up in grade school

 

[Cloudy]

Why does Mitt have his grown ass kids and their kids on the stage after the debate? Don't the grandkids go to school? I'm kind of impressed with Obama not dragging his kids out there

 

[MasterShotgun]

Now Chuck Todd Just said that Romney gave more of a book report, than engage in a debate. And that conservatives are slightly upset at Romney for not responding to Obama's zingers.

This really is coming off as a reverse of the first debate. The GOP is just better at not collectively shitting their pants at the first opportunity. Man was that a huge embarrassment for Dems after the first debate.

 

[Rocket Scientist]

Man was that a huge embarrassment for Dems after the first debate.

The collective panicking did more harm than Obama's napping for sure. I can't believe people still scream ''LIBRUL MEDIA BIAS!''. Couldn't believe it before either, but hey, there's always a new low it seems. The whole thing was sad.

 

[speculawyer]

This really is coming off as a reverse of the first debate. The GOP is just better at not collectively shitting their pants at the first opportunity. Man was that a huge embarrassment for Dems after the first debate.

Meh. I don't think being delusional sells well. Obama did not refute the lies in the first debate and that let it appear that he agreed.

 

[Wray]

NH currently at 69% for Obama to win at 538.

Just saying...

 

[ErasureAcer]

So it looks like Obama has Nevada and NH from the latest polls? That's a relief. Have an itching that CO and WI will go to Romney. Which leaves Obama having to take FL, or OH IA or VA IA. If WI stays Obama...he then only needs VA without IA. I'm not banking on WI or CO though.

I'm gonna go with 15-20+ Dems in the house.
Senate is a bit tougher to call an exact number but I expect a Dem pickup of 2 at the least. MT and ND are real wild cards here. As well as AZ and NV. Both 2 Dems vs. 2 Repubs. Throw in Indiana. And you gotta think the Dems will gain a net of 1 out of those 5. ME and MA will go Dem and NE will go Repub. So +1 Democrats there. At minimum I'm taking 55 Dems in the Senate as OH and VA should be safe.

 

[Cloudy]

The collective panicking did more harm than Obama's napping for sure. I can't believe people still scream ''LIBRUL MEDIA BIAS!''. Couldn't believe it before either, but hey, there's always a new low it seems. The whole thing was sad.

I've been thinking that Obama debated last night like he was the one behind. Hopefully that's not the case and they just wanted to avoid more liberal whining

 

[cartoon_soldier]

So it looks like Obama has Nevada and NH from the latest polls? That's a relief. Have an itching that CO and WI will go to Romney. Which leaves Obama having to take FL, or OH IA or VA IA. If WI stays Obama...he then only needs VA without IA. I'm not banking on WI or CO though.

I'm gonna go with 15-20+ Dems in the house.
Senate is a bit tougher to call an exact number but I expect a Dem pickup of 2 at the least. MT and ND are real wild cards here. As well as AZ and NV. Both 2 Dems vs. 2 Repubs. Throw in Indiana. And you gotta think the Dems will gain a net of 1 out of those 5. ME and MA will go Dem and NE will go Repub. So +1 Democrats there. At minimum I'm taking 55 Dems in the Senate as OH and VA should be safe.

Apart from the UNH poll, which looks like an outlier, NH looks like a tossup.

 

[ErasureAcer]

Apart from the UNH poll, which looks like an outlier, NH looks like a tossup.

But who would know NH better than the Univ. of NH?

 

[Officerrob]

So it looks like Obama has Nevada and NH from the latest polls? That's a relief. Have an itching that CO and WI will go to Romney. Which leaves Obama having to take FL, or OH IA or VA IA. If WI stays Obama...he then only needs VA without IA. I'm not banking on WI or CO though.

I'm gonna go with 15-20+ Dems in the house.
Senate is a bit tougher to call an exact number but I expect a Dem pickup of 2 at the least. MT and ND are real wild cards here. As well as AZ and NV. Both 2 Dems vs. 2 Repubs. Throw in Indiana. And you gotta think the Dems will gain a net of 1 out of those 5. ME and MA will go Dem and NE will go Repub. So +1 Democrats there. At minimum I'm taking 55 Dems in the Senate as OH and VA should be safe.

538 has Wisconisn at 82.2% for Obama, higher then Nevada and only 2% less then he has North Carolina for Romney

 

[Cheebo]

But who would know NH better than the Univ. of NH?

Markos from the DailyKos said they are a terrible pollster and to ignore that poll.

 

[ErasureAcer]

Markos from the DailyKos said they are a terrible pollster and to ignore that poll.

OK...so Obama has to take OH then we're back to.

 

[IrishNinja]

current claim in the debate thread is obama only having OH by 1.9%, yet this thread seems pretty confident he can't lose it in the coming weeks? discuss!

Spoiler

god i wonder if this is how PD started

 

[Cheebo]

I really really hope this debate finally stopped the drip drip of slow but steady rising support Romney had been getting in the polls, the second debate win didn't do the job but I think his win this time was a bit clearer hopefully. If the only debate that actually had any effect on the polls ends up being the first one I'll probably stab somebody.

Why couldn't have Obama of debate 2 and 3 show up at debate 1? Blah.

 

[ErasureAcer]

538 has Wisconisn at 82.2% for Obama, higher then Nevada and only 2% less then he has North Carolina for Romney

True. But a state that votes out Feingold and doesn't recall Walker makes me automatically wave a red flag. Plus Ryan is from there and if there's anything I've seen of the Wisconsin electorate here in MN is that they're craving to be noticed. What better than the VP?

 

[Officerrob]

True. But a state that votes out Feingold and doesn't recall Walker makes me automatically wave a red flag. Plus Ryan is from there and if there's anything I've seen of the Wisconsin electorate here in MN is that they're craving to be noticed. What better than the VP?

Nobody gives a shit that the VP comes from their state. Hell, Romney is going to lose both states he claims to be from. The Walker thing is a whole other issue as polls showed that people didn't like the recall process.

 

[ErasureAcer]

Nobody gives a shit that the VP comes from their state. Hell, Romney is going to lose both states he claims to be from. The Walker thing is a whole other issue as polls showed that people didn't like the recall process.

From the interviews I've seen with Twin City media with the Western Wisconsin electorate I disagree. These people are willing to sell their soul for some recognition. They'll vote for Ryan because he's from Wisconsin.

 

[Hammer24]

The Walker thing is a whole other issue as polls showed that people didn't like the recall process.

Wasn´t aware of this. Always thought the non-recall came as some kind of surprise, as polls showed otherwise.

 

[polyh3dron]

current claim in the debate thread is obama only having OH by 1.9%, yet this thread seems pretty confident he can't lose it in the coming weeks? discuss!

Spoiler

god i wonder if this is how PD started

That's the unskewed number right

 

[Officerrob]

From the interviews I've seen with Twin City media with the Western Wisconsin electorate I disagree. These people are willing to sell their soul for some recognition. They'll vote for Ryan because he's from Wisconsin.

Those people would have voted for Romney/? regardless

 

[Cheebo]

Was todays PPP tracking poll posted? They posted it a few hours ago on twitter
R - 49
O - 47

 

[ErasureAcer]

Those people would have voted for Romney/? regardless

Maybe. Maybe not. I'm thinking a good number in the tens of thousands will vote for Ryan because he's a Wisconsin-er that otherwise would have not voted Romney. Seriously. Now Obama could carry Wisconsin by more than whatever margin is there but don't be fooled that Ryan doesn't make a difference in Wisconsin.

 

[Ecotic]

New Hampshire worries me because they have an ethnically homogeneous population that lacks stabilizing subsets of minorities. In a State like Florida for example with heavy black and hispanic populations you can bank on reliable voting patterns among those groups. 95% of blacks for Obama and 60% or so of hispanics for Obama. Most people in a State like that are already locked in.

But New Hampshire? An entire small state of persuadable white people is unpredictable and prone to swings, with a mere 20,000 votes or so representing 3-4% of the vote, easily a winning margin.

 

[Aaron]

New Hampshire isn't going Romney. He was once the governor of MA, and anything that was once part of Mass NH fucking hates.

 

[Officerrob]

Maybe. Maybe not. I'm thinking a good number in the tens of thousands will vote for Ryan because he's a Wisconsin-er that otherwise would have not voted Romney. Seriously. Now Obama could carry Wisconsin by more than whatever margin is there but don't be fooled that Ryan doesn't make a difference in Wisconsin.

Obama had his biggest polling leads in that state AFTER Ryan was on the ticket.