Based on all you chicken littles I feel confident in posting this:
fuck y'all
You didn't even try.
Alabama?
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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.
- Thread starter Amir0x
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You didn't even try.
Alabama?
StopMakingSense
Member
So apparently romney had a huge burst in the polls that liberal-gaf is running around trying to explain?
So type of cataclysmic shift that hit people over the course of a few days?
Perhaps....
I like how you changed the graph from Fresno originally to California.
Also, the lowest value on the chart is 4.11 and the highest is 4.67. The intervals are so small, that any increase looks massive.
jamesinclair
Banned
The only change was adding a few days of new data.
Old one was
But go ahead, plot the Obama approval rate against this chart, youll be amazed.
StopMakingSense
Member
THe map in Stinkles' quote was from Fresno.
The Chosen One
Member
Umm... what on earth happened to PoliGAF today?
It's true if Obama had a strong debate, this election would have been a round 3 KO, especially with the positive job numbers on that following Friday.
The election will now probably go the distance since Romney is a squirrelly little fighter. But it's still going to be an easy unanimous decision for Obama. When it comes down to it, I don't see the majority of the country voting for someone who says, "47% of the country see themselves as victims and I don't give a shit about them either." He's just too out of touch. Romney would have to run a perfect campaign from here on out and he would still need a miracle to win.
Also eventually all the vagueness, half-truths, and outright lies will catch up to them.
It's true if Obama had a strong debate, this election would have been a round 3 KO, especially with the positive job numbers on that following Friday.
The election will now probably go the distance since Romney is a squirrelly little fighter. But it's still going to be an easy unanimous decision for Obama. When it comes down to it, I don't see the majority of the country voting for someone who says, "47% of the country see themselves as victims and I don't give a shit about them either." He's just too out of touch. Romney would have to run a perfect campaign from here on out and he would still need a miracle to win.
Also eventually all the vagueness, half-truths, and outright lies will catch up to them.
speculawyer
Member
What the fuck is going on in this thread?
jamesinclair
Banned
Oh I see, I posted the wrong one and quickly edited it but he beat me n the quote. I updated to the one that includes sunday and monday.
eBay Huckster
Member
What the fuck is going on in this thread?
Kickin' it old school.
speculawyer
Member
The only change was adding a few days of new data.
Old one was
But go ahead, plot the Obama approval rate against this chart, youll be amazed.
OMG! ONOZ!
http://news.yahoo.com/california-gasoline-prices-set-plunge-spike-ends-004934596.html
Incoming Obama bounce?
A much-needed backpat.
hydragonwarrior
Member
What the fuck is going on in this thread?
That gif is how I'm going to feel until Obama's debate comeback (hopefully).
eBay Huckster
Member
What the fuck is going on in this thread?
That is how I actually see several members in this thread on a daily basis
california to move from tossup to lean democrat confirmed
cartoon_soldier
Member
Do we know of mid week wsj/nbc polls are dropping?
In any case you shouldn't dismiss the pew poll, it shows if nothing else that republicans have more enthusiasm currently.
ryutaro's mama
Member
I'm really getting sick of this fucking concern trolling shitting up the thread.
I love this thread but cartoon soldier, PD and Diablos make it damn unreadable sometimes.
I love this thread but cartoon soldier, PD and Diablos make it damn unreadable sometimes.
StopMakingSense
Member
No WHAT ARE YOU HiDING???
cartoon_soldier
Member
I have been pretty tame last two days...
Pretty sad when I was in an ICU, an ER and at a go-live for our Hospital's entire computer system and I saw nobody as near as nervous as some in this thread. Jesus.
ryutaro's mama
Member
It's a rolling 7 day sample.
cartoon_soldier
Member
You are front loading your sample.
el retorno
Member
I think all the excuses for why the polls say what they do (OMG the sample is messed up) is sounding too much like unskewing. I mean I understand people saying it might be an one off and the Rassmussen bashing but otherwise they say what they do.
That being said the panic is getting a little old.
That being said the panic is getting a little old.
I fully expected a Romney bump but the pew data sample effectively ignored the weekend declines. It will be a roller coaster all the way to the election, including the usual GAF emotional version.
Aaron Strife
Banned
The problem with UnSkewing is they're refitting the polls to match an electorate that has never actually materialized, an electorate that has more Republicans than Democrats. Even in 2010 party ID was tied between the two, and in 2008 it was like D+8 or something close to that. The Pew poll, likewise, is R+4, so of course it's going to produce an outlier.
I don't agree with weighting for party ID or ideology at all (like the head of Quinnipiac said, you may as well just start making up your own toplines at that point), but that doesn't mean you're never going to get a genuinely funky sample. SurveyUSA is considered a respectable pollster and they put out that head-scratcher of Romney winning North Carolina by 10 points when everyone else had it within a point either way. Good pollsters aren't insulated from producing odd results.
That's the GOP for you.Forever said:
Unemployment is over 8%? Obummer's fault! Unemployment drops below 8%? OBOZO IS RIGGING THE NUMBERS!
Polls showing Obama ahead? They're skewed! Polls showing Romney's ahead - They're not skewed anymore! Cheers, everyone. Give me a fucking break.
ErasureAcer
Banned
The latest PPP poll on the Minnesota Constitutional Amendments. Good news or bad? Click the link to find out.
=)
el retorno
Member
They've been running a lot of interesting original articles recently. I'll be sure to read this in the morning.
Romney cares more about making money than other people's health, not a surprise in the least.
What's more interesting is that his peddling of cigarettes is in contradiction to the Mormon hatred for cigarettes.
Aaron Strife
Banned
PPP up in Minnesota. Some key findings:
- The gay marriage amendment is losing, 46-49. The margin is effectively bigger than that, actually. Our rule about constitutional amendments is that if you skip voting on them, it's counted as a No vote anyway. Usually this number ends up being about 5%, giving the No side a boost. There's way more enthusiasm on the Vote No side, so here's hoping.
- The voter ID amendment is passing 51-43. However, this is much closer than the wide margins PPP found the last few go-rounds. Mainly, independents are starting to split on the issue and Democrats are now more against it than they are against the marriage amendment. I've sort of conceded voter ID as being an inevitability, just because it's the kind of thing that sounds completely rational to the average voter, but if the No votes hold Yes to under 50%, that'd be pretty awesome. Moreso because
- DFL is leading on the legislative generic ballot 52-40. I'm not going to try and estimate how many seats that would net them, but the maps aren't exactly gerrymandered and winning back the state legislature is a rather small hump (4 seats in the senate, 5 in the house). Nothing would make me happier than seeing both amendments fail and Republicans lose the legislature. They'll have had the majority for all of two years with nothing to show for it. Then maybe we can get single-payer finally.
- Dayton and Franken are safe. Dayton's approval rating is at 53% to 33% disapproving and leads a generic Republican 52-35. Franken leads a generic Republican 50-38. They tested Coleman (51-41), Pawlenty (51-42), and Bachmann (55-37) against him.
I'm just saying, every state in the nation would do well to be more like us.
- The gay marriage amendment is losing, 46-49. The margin is effectively bigger than that, actually. Our rule about constitutional amendments is that if you skip voting on them, it's counted as a No vote anyway. Usually this number ends up being about 5%, giving the No side a boost. There's way more enthusiasm on the Vote No side, so here's hoping.
- The voter ID amendment is passing 51-43. However, this is much closer than the wide margins PPP found the last few go-rounds. Mainly, independents are starting to split on the issue and Democrats are now more against it than they are against the marriage amendment. I've sort of conceded voter ID as being an inevitability, just because it's the kind of thing that sounds completely rational to the average voter, but if the No votes hold Yes to under 50%, that'd be pretty awesome. Moreso because
- DFL is leading on the legislative generic ballot 52-40. I'm not going to try and estimate how many seats that would net them, but the maps aren't exactly gerrymandered and winning back the state legislature is a rather small hump (4 seats in the senate, 5 in the house). Nothing would make me happier than seeing both amendments fail and Republicans lose the legislature. They'll have had the majority for all of two years with nothing to show for it. Then maybe we can get single-payer finally.
- Dayton and Franken are safe. Dayton's approval rating is at 53% to 33% disapproving and leads a generic Republican 52-35. Franken leads a generic Republican 50-38. They tested Coleman (51-41), Pawlenty (51-42), and Bachmann (55-37) against him.
I'm just saying, every state in the nation would do well to be more like us.
speculawyer
Member
Reminds me of.
Where are the transitional fossils?!?!?!
Oh, you have a bunch of transitional fossils. Oh . . . uh . . . well THERE ARE NOW TWICE AS MANY GAPS IN THE FOSSIL RECORD because every new fossil you find creates a gap on either side of it.
speculawyer
Member
Oh that would be funny. I'd love to see a Franken v. Bachmann race. I think he would lure her into some traps.
ErasureAcer
Banned
Aww. You spoiled my post. That's a good summary though.
el retorno
Member
Why haven't voter ID's been challenged in the SCOTUS? They seem to me to a lot of the times run really close to poll taxes or the 14th amendment.
They are a poll tax unless valid IDs are being issued for free for everyone. A conservative majority SCOTUS may rule in favor of voter ID requirement anyways though.
I'd reconsider moving out of MN after college if this actually happened.
Aaron Strife
Banned
I'm kind of wondering if the "Vote No" campaign for the marriage amendment is having any effect on the Voter ID dealy too. Because seriously, there are Vote No signs EVERYWHERE. Could just be voters going in thinking "Vote no? Duhhh, okay."
Just a thought I guess. Yes on Voter ID is much more prevalent than the No side.
Just a thought I guess. Yes on Voter ID is much more prevalent than the No side.
Same. I've been giving a lot of thought to moving to Chicago but guaranteed healthcare would keep me around.Marvie_3 said:
Yeah it's pretty crazy how many of the Vote No signs that are around.
I was thinking the exact same thing. :lol
Always amusing to see "generic Republican" candidate polling better than any actual Republican candidate.
Hobbestetrician
Member
His ass?
Black Mamba
Member
The Household Survey says we added 600k gov't jobs (400k in August). The Establishment says it's about 50k jobs.
The Household Survey is reporting 1.5 million less gov't jobs than the Establishment Survey.
http://bls.gov/news.release/empsit.htm
Black Mamba
Member
Rand poll released for yesterday, showing Obama's lead grown ever so slightly (like a tenth of a point). He's back over 49%.
LoL @ that Penn polling company. Obama just +2. Hey last time. hey dipshits, when the Romney camp gives up on Penn, maybe you need to double check your polling if your data says otherwise.
Right through the heart of Diablos and PD.
edit: nm here found wrong data.
LoL @ that Penn polling company. Obama just +2. Hey last time. hey dipshits, when the Romney camp gives up on Penn, maybe you need to double check your polling if your data says otherwise.
Right through the heart of Diablos and PD.
edit: nm here found wrong data.
cartoon_soldier
Member
PPP's poll for kos/SIEU dropping today will show Romney with a lead.
Expected with the LV switch.
Expected with the LV switch.
Black Mamba
Member
Almost entirely Thursday/Friday voters. Again, these polls tell us nothing. So many firms polling the day after, smh.
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