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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.

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C

Cheebo

Banned
Black Mamba said:
Almost entirely Thursday/Friday voters. Again, these polls tell us nothing. So many firms polling the day after, smh.
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That doesn't explain Gallup showing the race tied today. They have saturday, sunday, and monday numbers in their poll as well as 2 days prior to the debate yet they will show it tied today.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Cheebo said:
That doesn't explain Gallup showing the race tied today. They have saturday, sunday, and monday numbers in their poll as well as 2 days prior to the debate yet they will show it tied today.
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Gallup is changing models. they've been Registered Voters and now moving to Likely Voters.

None of the Gallup numbers you've seen will be in the poll today (or rather, they kept only the LV and took out the RV from the poll, they didn't poll different people).

In other words, the LV might have been +2, +2, 0, -2, -2, 0, 0 compared to the RV model.

If he kep the RV model and showed a tie today from +5 yesterday, that would be an astronomical switch in a 7 day tracker. Romney would have to have been like ahead 66-31 in the poll to pull that off, lol.
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
Obama campaign does need to do something to change the narrative otherwise they risk it becoming a self fulfilling prophecy.

Any more secret videos left?

Good post from Josh Marshall

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2012/10/quick_note_on_the_peril_of_crosstabs.php?ref=fpblg

Party identification is not a demographic category. It’s actually closer to candidate choice, though it’s different from that too. When pollsters do polls they control for things like gender, age groups and so forth because these are real things. You don’t get swings in the gender or age make up of the electorate over the course of a campaign. We know how many men and women there are in the country. We know the age scale. So if you take a poll and you get 65% women, you need to adjust that to match the population. If you see a poll and it says half the respondents are over 60, that’s a problem.

For most pollsters party ID is just something that comes out where it comes out after these fixed demographic categories are adjusted for.
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That's what Nate has been saying too. He prefers pollsters report what they polled and not weigh their polls based on Party ID (Ras. does that I believe).
 
The Chosen One

The Chosen One

Member
Well the media is getting their horse race.

After all, who benefits from both parties and all the Super Pacs dumping truckloads of money on advertising. Romney affiliated Super Pacs were beginning to pull back and only spend money on less expensive House and Senate races. I'm sure now after the polls have tightened the Super Pacs will continue to spend money on high priced/bid advertising.
 
M

maximum360

Member
speculawyer said:
OMG.gif


What the fuck is going on in this thread?
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That gif is a classic. It's now like 2008 all over again.
 
T

Tim-E

Member
This party's base are a bunch of babies. They eat their own before their opponents because they aren't "pure" enough and they curl up into a ball every time a campaign gets rough. No wonder democrats lose so often.
 
G

gcubed

Member
el retorno de los sapos said:
I think all the excuses for why the polls say what they do (OMG the sample is messed up) is sounding too much like unskewing. I mean I understand people saying it might be an one off and the Rassmussen bashing but otherwise they say what they do.

That being said the panic is getting a little old.
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I'm getting tired of this tread lightly around polls bullshit. Poligaf for the last 6 years has always broken poll internals down. Its not unskewing to question internals in relation to all other internals, its unskewing when you go the other way. Enough with the bullshit.
 
B

Brinbe

Member
Tim-E said:
This party's base are a bunch of babies. They eat their own before their opponents because they aren't "pure" enough and they curl up into a ball every time a campaign gets rough. No wonder democrats lose so often.
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Easily. Y'all freaking out about one national poll? smfh... Save the worry for whenever Romney's constantly ahead in the likes of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Ohio and Iowa. Until then these polls are just capturing a more engaged Republican base with more "undecided independents" coming home, which is key for him in true toss-ups like NC/FL. Fortunately, Bams doesn't even need them.

Kxswd.png

NOJcM.png


Deep breathes, y'all... deep breathes.
 
L

Loudninja

Member
Brinbe said:
Easily. Y'all freaking out about one national poll? smfh... Save the worry for whenever Romney's constantly ahead in the likes of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Ohio and Iowa. Until then these polls are just capturing a more engaged Republican base with more "undecided independents" coming home, which is key for him in true toss-ups like NC/FL. Fortunately, Bams doesn't even need them.
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I have no idea why anyone pays any attention to any national polls.
 
I

isoquant

Member
gcubed said:
I'm getting tired of this tread lightly around polls bullshit. Poligaf for the last 6 years has always broken poll internals down. Its not unskewing to question internals in relation to all other internals, its unskewing when you go the other way. Enough with the bullshit.
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So what you're saying is... it's OK when your side does it. No worries.
 
I

isoquant

Member
"Our campaign will not be dictated by fact checkers"

Mitt Romney Can’t Roast Big Bird With PBS Cuts

Romney’s proposal to zero-out federal spending for public broadcasting will have little to no effect on Sesame Street’s budget because the show receives “very, very little funding” from PBS, Sesame Street’s executive vice president Sherrie Westin told CNN last week. Westin said the majority of the show’s funding comes from corporate sponsorships, product sales and donations.
“Quite frankly, you can debate whether or not there should be funding of public broadcasting. But when they always try to tout out Big Bird, and say we’re going to kill Big Bird – that is actually misleading, because Sesame Street will be here,” Westin said. “Big Bird lives on.”
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http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/10/fact-check-mitt-romneys-pbs-cuts-wont-fire-big-bird/

Old, but it needs to be posted.
 
H

Hitokage

Setec Astronomer
The importance of taxpayer money going to public television and public radio is of an indirect nature. The money isn't being given to PBS or NPR directly, but to affiliates to enable them to provide such programming to markets that would have trouble otherwise.

In other words, it limits their reach even if they can continue on.
 
R

RDreamer

Member
isoquant said:
So what you're saying is... it's OK when your side does it. No worries.
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There is a bit of a difference in looking at the internals of a singular poll, seeing what's going on, and comparing it to the trendline compared to thinking the entirety of the polling companies are in the Obama's pocket. Singular polls can be noise, as demonstrated by the numbers that come out when you figure out the last daily gallup poll (or whatever it was that had Obama up mega-tons). There were a few polls that had Obama up huge earlier and we figured those were partially noise, too. As demonstrated by a few polling companies' reasoning, there's also a good reason for the party affiliations to be the way they are, despite what the unskewing people say, and a good reason to wonder a bit if a poll has no latinos at all.
 
D

David Incorporated Esq.

Member
Hitokage said:
The importance of taxpayer money going to public television and public radio is of an indirect nature. The money isn't being given to PBS or NPR directly, but to affiliates to enable them to provide such programming to markets that would have trouble otherwise.

In other words, it limits their reach even if they can continue on.
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Isn't that what all their pledge drives are about? Making sure that the local affiliate has funding to continue in that area?

That reminds me, I really do need to pledge some monies, I loves me some Car Talk.
 
H

Hitokage

Setec Astronomer
Dave Inc. said:
Isn't that what all their pledge drives are about? Making sure that the local affiliate has funding to continue in that area?
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Not all areas have the same ability to produce funding that way. For large cities it's easy, but for smaller markets they lean on outside support.

That said, even here in Charlotte WTVI has run into trouble when Republicans in local government cut them out. We have the statewide UNC TV service (which is facing cuts on the state level) serving the area along with South Carolina's ETV, but WTVI was the local PBS station.
 
C

Cheebo

Banned
New ABC News/Wash Post poll today. ABC's morning show hinted the race has been "turned on it's head" so I suspect it will show things tied or a slight Romney lead.
 
L

Loudninja

Member
Cheebo said:
New ABC News/Wash Post poll today. ABC's morning show hinted the race has been "turned on it's head" so I suspect it will show things tied or a slight Romney lead.
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Favorably
The latest poll from ABC News and the Washington Post shows that 47 percent of registered voters view Romney favorably. That represents a new high for the Republican nominee this election cycle, according to ABC/WaPo. Fifty-one percent have an unfavorable view of the former Massachusetts governor.

Obama, however, still trumps his GOP challenger in this category. Fifty-five percent of voters said they have a favorable view of the president — his highest mark since the spring of 2010 in ABC/WaPo's polling — compared with 44 percent who have an unfavorable view. Long his most sterling characteristic as a politician, Obama's favorability rating appeared to suffer from the post-debate fallout in Monday's poll from Pew Research Center. It was the rare survey that showed Romney boasting a better favorability rating — albeit by a narrow margin — than Obama.
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http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/poll-romneys-personal-popularity-hits-new-high-after

Seems the poll was conducted at the same time as the others.
 
L

Loudninja

Member
Daily Kos poll for those who care.

Obama 47
Romney 49
So this week, 47 percent of responses were on Thursday, 28 percent on Friday, 17 percent on Saturday, and just 8 percent on Sunday. Romney won Thursday 49-48 and Friday 49-44 before losing steam over the weekend. While Romney won Thursday and Friday by a combined 2.5 points, he won Saturday and Sunday by just 0.5 percent.
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PPP
Impt to note on our national poll- 75% of interviews conducted within 48 hrs of debate. Would encourage Dems to wait a week before PANIC
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http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/...l-Romney-takes-the-lead-in-post-debate-period
 
C

Cheebo

Banned
Hey Uncle Joe, can you please hit it out of the park tomorrow and destroy Ryan to change this stupid media narrative? Thanks.


- PoliGAF
 
B

Brinbe

Member
Not surprising, the media will push anything to drive the horse-race and the narrative. We know Romney had weeks of bad press, so he's getting a good wrap now. It's exactly like the bounce he got post-Ryan pick, which also got the GOP faithful rallied together. But that and this won't last forever and things could change by Thursday's debate.

And luckily, most of y'all are smart enough to know better. National numbers, while important in ascertaining momentum/national mood, doesn't mean he has a great chance of winning. Electoral college, yo.
 
T

The Librarian

Banned
Cheebo said:
? They only released favorability numbers.
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It's right there in the opening paragraphs.

Mitt Romney reached his highest personal popularity of the election campaign among registered voters in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll – but not by enough to lift his head above water, nor to surpass Barack Obama, who reached his own best favorability rating of the season.

Night-to-night data indicate a sizable boost for Romney, and drop for Obama, on Thursday night, a day after their first debate, which Romney widely is seen as having won. But both of those trends subsequently subsided in this poll, conducted Thursday through Sunday.
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Marshall's on it.

I shall continue to freak out!
 
C

codhand

Member
The key point, for the bed-wetting set, is this …

Night-to-night data indicate a sizable boost for Romney, and drop for Obama, on Thursday night, a day after their first debate, which Romney widely is seen as having won. But both of those trends subsequently subsided in this poll, conducted Thursday through Sunday.
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Ha, he called diablos and co. bed-wetters tee hee.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Brinbe said:
Not surprising, the media will push anything to drive the horse-race and the narrative. We know Romney had weeks of bad press, so he's getting a good wrap now. It's exactly like the bounce he got post-Ryan pick, which also got the GOP faithful rallied together. But that and this won't last forever and things could change by Thursday's debate.

And luckily, most of y'all are smart enough to know better. National numbers, while important in ascertaining momentum/national mood, doesn't mean he has a great chance of winning. Electoral college, yo.
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Mark my words. Next week the media will be masturbating to the Obama comeback narrative
 
S

scorcho

testicles on a cold fall morning
The polling data from last week's historical debates are imbued with a historic quality that's hard to argue against. Unskewed et. all may be on to something with their modeling algorithm.
 
T

Tim-E

Member
RDreamer said:
Thatsthejoke.jpg
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It's okay, RDreamer, I got it as soon as I saw it <3


scorcho said:
The polling data from last week's historical debates are imbued with a historic quality that's hard to argue against. Unskewed et. all may be on to something with their modeling algorithm.
Click to expand...

Our local school board just announced that they're making it mandatory for social studies classes of all grades incorporate a week's worth of lessons around this debate, as it's so historically significant.
 
T

Tim-E

Member
Now I see people in comments sections freaking out that the Obama campaign is spending money on the Big Bird ad instead of something more serious. If my state had open primaries, I would switch my registration to Independent because the democrat's base is ridiculous.
 
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