It is a decent poll result for Obama, but I'm a bit confused why this is great news. +4 isn't an insurmountable lead at all, and if Ohio goes toss up the math gets a lot easier for Romney.
It's a 6 point swing for that pollster.Obama up four in Ohio with his bounce in it? Uh, that's terrible for Romney. It's barely statistically different from the pre-debate polls.
+4 at this moment in the polls in the most important swing state is an excellent place to be. Again, even the size of the bounce Romney seems to have already gotten is unprecedented in many respects. If he were to get another equally sized bounce before November he STILL wouldn't be leading in Ohio.
Thats good.He is not winning PA. Holy moly.
Anyway, among RVs, Obama is up by 10 over Romney in Ohio: https://twitter.com/ThePlumLineGS/status/255761161457397761
Your first presidential election you followed was 2008. You don't know what it's like to lose.
He is not winning PA. Holy moly.
Anyway, among RVs, Obama is up by 10 over Romney in Ohio: https://twitter.com/ThePlumLineGS/status/255761161457397761
A four point lead with a moe of three is a huge lead, statistically. It means Obama has 92% odds to win. This is where the media does not explain stats right.I understand that. But a 4 point lead is not all that significant. Do not get me wrong- it is a decent result, but I think it is being overstated because of how bad the polls have been looking the last day or so. A week ago I doubt people would be ecstatic about a poll showing Obama up 4 points.
So after all that, Romney still has no realistic path to 270. Why are people freaking out?
A four point lead with a moe of three is a huge lead, statistically. It means Obama has 92% odds to win. This is where the media does not explain stats right.
Fair point. I still think in something like his it's better too look at the consensus overall. A d it has his bounce in it which will fade. Point is Romney needed to tie up Ohio already.It's a 6 point swing for that pollster.
http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/cnn-poll-obama-leads-romney-by-4-inThe CNN poll indicates a wide gender gap, with Romney leading by 14 points among men and Obama ahead by 22 points among women voters.
All of you chicken littles need to get one thing through your heads;
Romney isn't winning Ohio. Thus, Romney isn't winning the election.
It's as simple as that. So stop panicking and just make sure you vote on election day.
Oh I'm sorry. I'm not implying this is an end all poll. Just saying it's not a good poll for Romney. I agree we need more data. I also think we need more data without immediate debate polling in it.I understand. Honestly I do. I guess my point which I tried to explain above is that right now you and others seem to be taking the CNN poll as the only, final word on what is going on in Ohio right now. If 3 other reputable polls come out this week showing Obama up 4 points I will absolutely agree with you. One poll showing a 4 point lead doesn't tell me nearly as much as you all seem to think it does.
romney gained 6 points in the CNN Ohio poll. That isn't a shift?Oh I'm sorry. I'm not implying this is an end all poll. Just saying it's not a good poll for Romney. I agree we need more data. I also think we need more data without immediate debate polling in it.
Romney got a bounce. But I'm not ready to clear it a shift.
romney gained 6 points in the CNN Ohio poll. That isn't a shift?
All of you chicken littles need to get one thing through your heads;
Romney isn't winning Ohio. Thus, Romney isn't winning the election.
It's as simple as that. So stop panicking and just make sure you vote on election day.
.Nate Silver ‏@fivethirtyeight
With further gains by Romney today, we now have Obama as a ~70/30 favorite, same as before conventions.
Yep.All of you chicken littles need to get one thing through your heads;
Romney isn't winning Ohio. Thus, Romney isn't winning the election.
It's as simple as that. So stop panicking and just make sure you vote on election day.
All of you chicken littles need to get one thing through your heads;
Romney isn't winning Ohio. Thus, Romney isn't winning the election.
It's as simple as that. So stop panicking and just make sure you vote on election day.
4 points is NOT close.Jon Husted is still secretary of state in Ohio and despite the appeals court ruling, they've left the early voting decision up to the individual counties. Each county has one rep from each party with the tie being broken by the secretary of state. See where I'm going with this? You cannot afford to have the race as close in Ohio as the CNN poll shows.
The movement in 538 is pretty low considering the hype
It updates tonight no?The movement in 538 is pretty low considering the hype
It updates tonight no?
Nate Silver said:With further gains by Romney today, we now have Obama as a ~70/30 favorite, same as before conventions.
romney gained 6 points in the CNN Ohio poll. That isn't a shift?
Not ifromney gained 6 points in the CNN Ohio poll. That isn't a shift?
Not if
A: CNN was too high to begin with
B: it fades
A bounce is t a shift unless it holds. It's all polling the 96 hours after the debate. Slow down.
post count here goes waay up during panic
The irony of you telling someone to stop spinning is pretty laughable.That's not what anyone here was saying two weeks ago lmao. Keeping spinning
romney gained 6 points in the CNN Ohio poll. That isn't a shift?
That's not what anyone here was saying two weeks ago lmao. Keeping spinning
romney gained 6 points in the CNN Ohio poll. That isn't a shift?
Wow 28.6% chances of winning is supposed to be the big bump ?
Time to chillax guys.
That's not what anyone here was saying two weeks ago lmao. Keeping spinning
4 points is NOT close.
People are really acting weird today.
Yep,a hole is still a hole.Too early to say that it's a shift, and even if it was then it's from "Romney in a big hole" (which, let's face it, being -10 in any political poll is a big damn hole) to "Romney in a small hole": he's still in a hole.