Actually, you don't need to be in a better position than winning.
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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.
- Thread starter Amir0x
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Actually, you don't need to be in a better position than winning.
Its because no matter what these new polls tells us it still doesn't change the fact that half the country has already started voting back during the 47% comment... the closer we get to the final election day the less ground any of these fluctuating polls have to stand on, both positive or negative. If Obama can still win the election today despite the bad polling data, then it still comes off as negative for Romney. The time is against him now. His debate 'performance' lifted him from being a near impossible long shot to just a semi possible long shot, but he still has a lot of ground to make up and if he can't start over taking lots of Obama's swing states (by larger and larger margins) he can't win anyways, and that implies this 'bounce' is going to linger beyond this week, or beyond the next debate. He needs to improve on his poll numbers, they are a good bounce but still not even close to good enough. It just puts in perspective just how much Obama was kicking his ass that he can survive even a 5-6 point jump from Romney and still come out ahead.
Officerrob
Banned
It needed to happen a long time ago
RE: 538
Has the Now-Cast changed all that much? It seems like the only state that's flipped is FL, and it still seems to be in-play. For the past couple months, all of the other swing states still seem to be allocated to their favorites, except FL (NC: Romney; NV, CO, OH, WI, IA, VA, NH: Obama).
Has the Now-Cast changed all that much? It seems like the only state that's flipped is FL, and it still seems to be in-play. For the past couple months, all of the other swing states still seem to be allocated to their favorites, except FL (NC: Romney; NV, CO, OH, WI, IA, VA, NH: Obama).
eBay Huckster
Member
It was starting to show NC shifting to Obama before the debate, but otherwise no.
Like I said I don't worry much at all about national polls.
We already have enough people freaking out.
PhoenixDark
Banned
Calling the mods? That's low
I'm done for the next few days. The bitterness and insecurity in this thread is too much for me to bear.
Well, it was before the O+4 poll or the O+1 poll from SurveyUSA. If that CNN poll had come out even, it would've been a different world.
and he is quite the a-hole.
on the topic of panic tho, if this were a sporting event we do know who has momentum right? i was certain obama would wipe the floor with romney because his polices are swiss cheese, but he didnt, and here we are page 52. god damn it all. 30% chance the biggest douche ever can become pres, is 30% too much, im waiting till polling calms down, but if you wanna know my panic percentage it's what nate god silver tells me it should be so about 28.6% panic 71.4% ice veins.
edit*
beaten like bams in round 1
eBay Huckster
Member
run, PD, run into hillary's waiting arms
metalslimer
Member
Oblivion is a much better troll than phoenix
It doesn't matter. Ohio wrote off Romney months ago. Contrary to popular belief, you don't erase over a year of politics in a single debate. It doesn't help that Romney hasn't led in a single poll in this state since he started running for office. Romney supported Senate Bill 5, and the destruction of the auto industry. He's toast in this state.
Beer Monkey
Member
Supreme Court, Jon Husted? Really?
All to keep non-military Ohioans from voting the weekend before the election?
Yeah, I just gave money to Ohio dems. Anytime Republicans here try to restrict voting, I give more money to dems.
All to keep non-military Ohioans from voting the weekend before the election?
Yeah, I just gave money to Ohio dems. Anytime Republicans here try to restrict voting, I give more money to dems.
So basically the only state that changed on 538 was Florida, from 50.4% chance Obama to 53.3% chance Romney? Colorado and Virginia are both much closer, and NC is past 80% chance for Romney.
Even if Romney wins FL, CO, and VA, he's still down 257 to Obama's 281.
He still needs Ohio, and even then, if he gets Ohio he needs to hold all three of the ones I just cited. Even Colorado is enough for Obama.
Even if Romney wins FL, CO, and VA, he's still down 257 to Obama's 281.
He still needs Ohio, and even then, if he gets Ohio he needs to hold all three of the ones I just cited. Even Colorado is enough for Obama.
The Librarian
Banned
Actually, PD, I think the Batman/Joker relationship is pretty apt. You and I will be doing this forever. You'll win some, I'll win some, but we always come back.
Pretty much.
Whenever we get a flurry of national polls, I just check the state by state numbers on 538. Helps calm the nerves.
Officerrob
Banned
Your act was boring and dull long before the last few days
2 new Obama ads
Medicare
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=O50SljBBRYE
Medicaid
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=Qq11CWbd56g
Great ads.
Medicare
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=O50SljBBRYE
Medicaid
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=Qq11CWbd56g
Great ads.
eBay Huckster
Member
guys we're slipping back into meta-posting
someone start recommending books on policy, i don't care which areas
someone start recommending books on policy, i don't care which areas
metalslimer
Member
Good, your chicken littling actually is preventing real discussion.
Code:
State 10/8 10/9
NV 78.9 75.1
CO 60.3 53.9
OH 75.5 72.2
IA 68.6 65.6
WI 83.5 81.3
NC 73.3 80.2 (for Romney)
VA 61.7 58.3
FL 50.4 46.7
PA 95.6 93.3
MI 96.7 95.9
NH 83.6 81.7It was purely a bunch of incremental shifts.
Seriously, this is probably the best case scenario for Mitt's bounce. We've heard from pollsters that it may already be fading and I don't think Mitt has ever really hit 30% chance to win since August. This bump hasn't even made up what he's lost. Plus the president has a 55% approval rating which shows the bounce will drop fast, considering when it was taken. Mitt is doing 14% better than he was at the start of the month when he had no chance, now he's just got a ghost of a chance.
It's this complacency and complete denial of any possibility of Romney gaining and sustaining any momentum that is the reason we're in this mess. Obama fucked up and let Romney embarrass him in the debate.
Hopefully the race gets even closer and maybe Obama will actually start trying
Hopefully the race gets even closer and maybe Obama will actually start trying
metalslimer
Member
What mess?The one where Romney went from having very little chance to win to still very little chance to win? And I don't know why anyone who wants Obama to win would possibly hope the race tightens.
No. Hopefully Biden puts the race back on track this week and Obama hammers it away next week.
Frank the Great
Banned
very well done and effective imo. and they are true.
Black Mamba
Member
This. I never said Ohio would go by 10. The only way Ohio would have gone by 10 is if come election day the GOP base was so demoralized at an obvious loss that they stayed home.
Some polls showed around 8 but most was around 4-7.
Nice. The Medicare ad is better, but the Medicaid one is a pleasant surprise since the program's sustantial benefits for seniors often get ignored/overlooked.
speculawyer
Member
Patrick Klepek
furiously molesting tim burton
this thread is going to some amazing places.
I likes to doom.
metalslimer
Member
Oh like half the people I know think Romney is a shoe in at this point because they have no idea about electoral math. All they see is him up in the polls and think its over.
Fox is puffing out their chest lol
They should just show the 1984 map.
You're describing many of my older, Republican relatives.
If I were the devilish sort, I'd try to get one of my uncles to have a family Election Night party. Especially if the data continues to point to one thing and Fox points to another.
You're describing many of my older, Republican relatives.
If I were the devilish sort, I'd try to get one of my uncles to have a family Election Night party. Especially if the data continues to point to one thing and Fox points to another.
This + a camcorder + YouTube could potentially lead to a new viral video.
metalslimer
Member
You're describing many of my older, Republican relatives.
If I were the devilish sort, I'd try to get one of my uncles to have a family Election Night party. Especially if the data continues to point to one thing and Fox points to another.
Oh I would love to see parties all over NOLA end up in drunken rages
speculawyer
Member
You're describing many of my older, Republican relatives.
If I were the devilish sort, I'd try to get one of my uncles to have a family Election Night party. Especially if the data continues to point to one thing and Fox points to another.
If you were the devilish sort, you'd be making wagers with them at this point. But it is not nice to trick old people.
Frank the Great
Banned
man obama is stumbling over his own words even in a stump speech
everyone in my family and my gf's family literally thinks we are nuts because we like obama. i'm jealous of you.
All my relatives are democrats
everyone in my family and my gf's family literally thinks we are nuts because we like obama. i'm jealous of you.
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