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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.

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C

Cheebo

Banned
codhand said:
Seriously, winning VA by five, but down in Colorado?
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Obama doesn't need Colorado if he has Virginia or Ohio. He has having a hard time out west, economy is still doing really bad there unlike Ohio or Virginia which are outpacing the national average.
 
C

codhand

Member
mAgwY.png
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IBD/TIPP Poll

IBD/TIPP 2012 Presidential Election
Daily Tracking Poll

Day 2: Oct. 10, 2012

Romney: +5.0

Romney’s lead widened to 5 points from 2 points on Tuesday, as he continues to chip away at key Obama support.
Romney’s edge among independents widened to 20 points from 18 just a day before.
Obama’s lead among women narrowed from 10 points to 8 points.
Romney also continues to make inroads among middle-class voters, moving from a 6-point lead against Obama with this group to a 10-point lead.
The current data include only polls taken after Romney’s resounding debate win over Obama on Oct. 3.
Click to expand...


tumblr_m7n37lT8Z41qkuyyv.gif
 
C

codhand

Member
538
For the time being, however, Mr. Romney continues to rocket forward in our projections. The forecast model now gives him about a one-in-three chance of winning the Electoral College (more specifically, a 32.1 percent chance), his highest figure since Aug. 22 and more than double his chances from before the debate. Mr. Romney may have increased his chances of becoming president by 15 or 20 percent based on one night in Denver.
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Our research suggests, however, that when the state polls and the national polls seem to tell a different story about the state of the campaign, the state polls sometimes (not always, by any means) get it right.
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G

Giant Panda

Member
Aylinato said:
You assume Romney becomes a not-changing positions every other day guy.

You also assume Romney will have nothing go wrong for him during the next month while assuming the only one who can mess up is Obama.

Your assumptions are more telling then anything else, and I'm dismissive of Romney because he already lost his bump in a matter of days. Losing PA by 8 pts? Lol..he cannot afford to lose OH, FL, or PA and with his VP pick it's all an up hill battle for him. Compounded with the 47% video, and every other blunder Romney has coming his way. I really believe Obama has an amazing shot at relelection.

I'm also not worried because I help out Obama's campaign in my region and have been for awhile now. I'm doing all I can to ensure his reelection.


::edit:: down 6 points already in OH? Well outside margin of error. Makes me a happy guy! Gotta knock on some doors this weekend!
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Again, it appears you are not actually reading what I am saying. I am not assuming anything about Romney, I am merely pointing out there are plausible, not likely, but still plausible scenarios where he could win. The fact that you are putting words in my mouth, and making this a such big deal suggests you actually don't want to discuss anything but that you just want to get angry at something.
 
T

The Librarian

Banned
Cheebo said:
National job numbers have had zero impact on the polls all election. It isn't going to suddenly start impacting it.
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I wouldn't say that. Probably the reason why Obama's poll numbers didn't drop in the face of slowed job growth after the March is because the economy had added more than 300k jobs than originally thought.

Direction of the economy matters.
 
C

codhand

Member
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-202_162-57530289/yemen-security-chief-at-u.s-embassy-killed/
AQAP praised the killing of U.S. diplomats in Libya, describing it as "the best example" for those attacking embassies to follow.

Yemeni officials identified the embassy security official as Qassem Aqlani, in his fifties. He was on his way to work when a gunman on a motorcycle opened fire at him and fled the scene.The attack was in western Sanaa, close to Aqlani's home, while the embassy is located in eastern Sanaa.

Aqlani had been working for the U.S. Embassy for nearly 20 years, said the officials who spoke condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the media. Most recently, he was in charge of investigating a Sept. 12 assault on the U.S. Embassy by angry Yemeni protesters over the anti-Islam film. Protesters
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That's really sad.
 
C

codhand

Member
The Scrapper from Scranton V The Randy Ryan

for real this time; whenever Ryan sees someone from Scranton he will cross the street

This is a biig fucking debate.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
PhoenixDark said:
I'm surprised Kaine hasn't dipped after that first debate where he said the 47% should have their taxes raised. Dunno if that's a sign of him being lucky or running against George fucking Allen
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Virginia is not a midwest, rust belt, blue collar state. It's probably the richest area in the country (at least, North virginia is, where 80% of the population lives).
Dreamcaster said:
Head of Security at US Embassy in Yemen Assassinated

Not good.
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Didn't Obama send Marines over to Yemen right after the benghazi assault?
 
D

Dreamcaster

Banned
mackaveli said:
Jobless claims drops to 339,000. Over 30,000 wow.
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Not sure how reputable this site is (their bias is obvious):

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-...-tumble-339k-lowest-2008-far-below-lowest-exp

After expectations of a rebound in initial claims from 367K last week (naturally revised higher to 369K), to 370K (with the lowest of all sellside expectations at 355K), the past week mysteriously, yet so very unsurprisingly in the aftermath of the fudged BLS unemployment number, saw claims tumble to a number that is so ridiculous not even CNBC's Steve Liesman bothered defending it, or 339K. Ironically, not even the Labor Department is defending it: it said that "one large state didn't report some quarterly figures."
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More complete quote:

A Labor Department economist said one large state didn’t report additional quarterly figures as expected, accounting for a substantial part of the decrease.
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C

codhand

Member
Becky Quick ‏@beckyquickcnbc

Great work by @Kelly_Evans. Jobless claims # is legit. There was NOT a state that didn't report. State didn't report a BUMP as expected.


2m Kelly Evans Kelly Evans ‏@Kelly_Evans

. @beckyquickcnbc well, legit in that it reflects what DOL gathered from states but not in that it reflects sudden labor mkt improvement
Hide conversation
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What fuckery is this?
 
D

Dreamcaster

Banned
gcubed said:
i am assuming that sudden labor market improvement comment is that you can't say the labor market is better off of one report.
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How often do these numbers get revised (as they often do). Just wondering if Obama would be able to skate on this number or if it could be revised up before the last 2 debates (if in fact it was revised).
 
G

gcubed

Member
Dreamcaster said:
How often do these numbers get revised (as they often do). Just wondering if Obama would be able to skate on this number or if it could be revised up before the last 2 debates (if in fact it was revised).
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they get revised weekly, as an example, with the release of this weeks number, they revised last week up 2,000
 
L

Learn2read

Member
Why JoBi is gonna rock at the debate tonight (would bold but as always everything Charles Pierce writes is AAA)

http://www.esquire.com/blogs/politics/vp-debate-2012-13609407 said:
The Zombie-Eyed Granny-Starver Takes on the One Man Who Relishes This Mess: Your 2012 VP Debate Preview
By Charles P. Pierce at 9:07AM

One of the oddest reactions to the president's feather-in-the-gales-of-pure-bullshit performance last week is the notion among a number of very smart liberal humans that he doesn't want to be president anymore and, way out on the fringe, the corollary that his debate demeanor was the rhetorical equivalent of Eddie Cicotte of the Chicago White Sox hitting the first Cincinnati batter he faced in the 1919 World Series. I'm not good enough at trans-area-code psychology to agree with this conclusion, although I do admit that the president should be a little more juiced than this about the prospect of deflating Willard Romney just for the sheer fun of it, since Romney is so obviously a bag of hot air that they should string him up and float him through Manhattan this Thanksgiving.

However, you know who really likes his job, and would like very much to keep it because he likes it so much?

Joe Biden, that's who.

Joe Biden is not riven with self-doubt. Joe Biden is not exhausted by the hurly-burly of politics. Joe Biden is not burdened by the weight of events and laid low by the constant battle against know-nothing obstructionism. Joe Biden is not going to take the stage tonight and find himself wishing he were anywhere else. I mean, god be good to him, as my gran' used to say, but Joe Biden actually likes all these silly performance pieces in which we insist he be engaged in order to stay vice-president. He revels in them. He would do ten of them a day, if he could. When I consider Joe Biden, and I look at the enthusiasm with which he throws himself into the various cataracts and torrents of hogwash that constitute our politics these days, I find myself looking at him the way I look at people who sky-dive or drive in demolition derbies. I have no idea why they do what they do, and I have absolutely no intention of doing it myself, ever, but, goddamn, do those people look like they're having fun.

So tonight, when Biden takes the stage to debate Paul Ryan, the zombie-eyed granny-starver from the state of Wisconsin, it is very unlikely that the debate will hinge on whether either man really wants to be there. Biden eats these kinds of things on toast, and Ryan is as ambitious as Satan. What the debate will test, however, is whether or not the zombie-eyed granny-starver can summon up — or, more accurately, reconstruct — the persona that was built for him through the years by dozens of credulous Beltway hacks who looked at a youthful Republican who wore shoes and didn't talk about how Jesus road to work on a diplodocus, who instead immersed himself in pie charts and flow sheets and, in doing so, had created for everyone a believable simulcrum of a Smart Person. Then, of course, he published a couple of "budgets" that, judging by the general reaction to them, were written in bubonic bacilli. That was the first whack at the image. Then the president called him out face-to-face, and Ryan has yet to stop meeping about that. Hell, no less than N. Leroy Gingrich, definer of civilization's rules and leader (perhaps) of the civilizing forces, referred to Ryan's entire economic oeuvre as "thinly-veiled social Darwinism," which it plainly is, although Gingrich later had to walk that one back, alas.

Once Romney put him on the ticket, all that great video came out with Ryan's talking to various gatherings of aging Ayn Rand fanbois. He gave a speech at the Republican National Convention that shattered the weight-for-age record for individual prevarication. Suddenly, people started talking about what had been plain from the beginning of his rise to national prominence — that Paul Ryan is as much of an unlettered extremist on economics as Louie Gohmert is on terror babies, or Paul Broun is on how the world came to be created. Conservatism's mansion has many rooms, and almost all of them are padded.

(Not that there aren't members of the Beltway media still dazzled by the blue-eyed Deerslayer from Janesville. "I like the strategy of bow hunting and it takes a lot of preparation, and I do take it seriously because I am much more successful if I do things properly and prepare the right way," he told CNN recently while on the campaign trail in Memphis. Is he planning to shoot an apple off Biden's head? It is plainly time for Dana Bash to take a couple of weeks off.)

There is no mistaking what Paul Ryan is seeking to create in this country, and it doesn't matter how much happy-clappy middle-class opportunity gilding he puts on it. He believes that the general government — which, I have to keep reminding him, is ultimately a manifestation of the political commonwealth — has no role in alleviating poverty, very little role in alleviating disease, and is designed primarily to create and sustain a political and social oligarchy. His devotion is nearly theological. He opposes Social Security and Medicare and Medicaid on principle. He believes them to have been always illegitimate exercises of government's power because, ostensibly, he read that somewhere in the Constitution, but actually, because they thwart his attempts to hand all the nation's power, and certainly all of its wealth, over to the "makers," and the hell with the "takers." He learned this, of course, in his pursuit of his bachelor's degree from Miami of Ohio, which was paid for on my dime, through Social Security survivor's benefits and, as always, you're welcome, Ace.

I think that Joe Biden, who is not laboring under any delusions about what's at stake here, likely will point a lot of this out tonight. (I'll send him a buffalo nickel if he asks Ryan whether Ryan felt he was a "taker" when he was cashing all those government checks after his father kicked.) Ryan will assume his sad-eyed pose as the lonely embattled truth-teller, and he will hope that the country buys it one more time. He's a much smaller bag of hot air than his running mate, drifting down the boulevard with his guide-wires held by dozens of easily impressed media types. He doesn't even react well to needles. Not at all. Joe Biden is not afraid of needles, and Joe Biden wants to stay vice-president for awhile. I'll never understand that, but people take their fun where they can find it and needling Paul Ryan can be rare good craic. I do not think Joe Biden will be so overwhelmed by the gravity of the occasion that he denies himself that kind of fun.
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R

RustyNails

Member
Learn2read said:
Why JoBi is gonna rock at the debate tonight (would bold but as always everything Charles Pierce writes is AAA)
Then the president called him out face-to-face, and Ryan has yet to stop meeping about that. Hell, no less than N. Leroy Gingrich, definer of civilization's rules and leader (perhaps) of the civilizing forces, referred to Ryan's entire economic oeuvre as "thinly-veiled social Darwinism," which it plainly is, although Gingrich later had to walk that one back, alas.
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Gold
 
A

AlteredBeast

Fork 'em, Sparky!
I feel like both sides are setting themselves up for defeat here. Both Dems and Repubs are claiming their respective guy is going to kill it.

I am not convinced on either point, but it will definitely be more dynamic than Obama's Sleep Train 2012.
 
R

RDreamer

Member
Frank the Great said:
i fucking love biden but i refuse to be confident after last week's debacle.
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I don't have confidence, and I'm preparing for a loss, but I have so much hope that he eviscerates Ryan. There's so much material to work with there, and it seems like Biden has the absolute correct personality to do it.

If he loses this thing decidedly to Joe Biden does anyone else think his political ambitions toward the white house are over after this run? I certainly hope and think so. That's still a big "if," though.
 
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