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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.

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S

sc0la

Unconfirmed Member
Sirpopopop said:
If Romney gets in office, I'm going to guarantee him 8 years. He doesn't have to do anything and he will get good economic numbers. Obama did some of the lifting, and Romney will coast in as if he did a good job.

Democrats aren't insensitive jackasses like Republicans, they won't let the fiscal cliff hit us. Once that passes, the only thing that could derail is an implosion in Europe or China. I suppose starting a trade war with China could end up doing that for us, but I don't think Romney will actually go charge China with being a currency manipulator.
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Yep!
 
R

Raine

Member
Downhome said:
If Romney doesn't win the entire thing, it's looking more and more likely that Obama will win the electoral vote and Romney will win the popular vote.
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Can't tell if you're serious. But if Obama wins the electoral vote decidedly, which it looks like he will, Romney isn't winning the popular vote...
 
D

Downhome

Member
Raine said:
Can't tell if you're serious. But if Obama wins the electoral vote decidedly,
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I'm serious, and Obama wont do that. It's going to be incredibly close no matter who wins. Just sit back and wait and see. It's going to be a long election night.

That Reuters/Ipsos poll is quite telling. For him to now have a lead like that, a week out from the last debate and now right before the one for VP is a pretty big deal.
 
O

Orbis Tabula

Member
There used to be a day when I read every page of the PoliGAF thread. Not any more. You guys post wayyy to fucking fast around elections. I can't keep up. Now how am I supposed to get my "news"?
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Pretty telling that Obama can still hold Ohio and couple of swing states despite a national bump for Romney. This is 2004 all over again.
 
W

worldrunover

Member
Cloudy said:
.
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tumblr_mb7vdhs8c11rq0x5po1_250.gif


I need to stop following this thread so much.
 
L

Loudninja

Member
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
Strong number for Romney in Reuters/Ipsos.

Generally, people expect State Polls to come in line with the National Polls. A 2-3 point National margin of victory will translate into EC victory (even Nate says that) because at that kind of a National Margin you have enough vote lead in all the states too.

Very weird, now we have to see if Obama's numbers hold Steady in WI, OH for the PPP polls. And why is nobody polling IA?
 
S

syllogism

Member
cartoon_soldier said:
Strong number for Romney in Reuters/Ipsos.

Generally, people expect State Polls to come in line with the National Polls. A 2-3 point National margin of victory will translate into EC victory (even Nate says that) because at that kind of a National Margin you have enough vote lead in all the states too.

Very weird, now we have to see if Obama's numbers hold Steady in WI, OH for the PPP polls. And why is nobody polling IA?
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You are such a joke character, much more so than PD
 
J

Joe Shlabotnik

Banned
I'll admit to being thoroughly bewildered by pretty much all polls right now. Something has to be lagging waaaaayyy behind something, I just don't know which direction is which.

Either Obama flushed most of a national lead down the toilet with one less-than-inspiring debate, or one listless debate produced a temporary gigantic bounce--either way it's just bizarre.
 
E

Effect

Member
The debate days and weekend should be out of the next set of polls right? Every thing released so far has included them?
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Obama narrowly winning the swing and blue states with Romney overwhelmingly carrying the red states could do the trick. People down here in the South really, really hate hate hate Obama, so I could see them driving Romney's national numbers up a bit..
 
A

AniHawk

Member
i've been off on gallup by one day. tomorrow we'll start seeing the effects of the immediate aftermath of the debate being phased out.

i'm thinking the high approval rating might have come off the back of improving unemployment numbers, but we'll see. they seem unusually high given the gloom and doom elsewhere.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
GhaleonEB said:
Good to hear. I only got to see a bit of the debates, but my understanding is Brown did himself no favors.
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Brown was very condescending in the first two debates, especially the second where he jumped out the gate with the Native American stuff; I thought he did fine on issues but clearly he turned voters off. Last night he stayed on message and did well, the problem is that Warren did better. She's very good at debating and condensing liberalism in a way people can understand/accept. Somewhat like what Paul Ryan does for conservatism.

He's basically running as two people. On one hand he tells out-of-state republican leadership and groups that he's their man; on the other hand he goes back to MA and says he's a moderate who respects Obama and wouldn't go to lunch with Mitch McConnell for free. It's just not working anymore
 
A

AniHawk

Member
and gallup came in with some not-so-good news today. 3 point loss in rv, 1 point loss in approval, 1 point loss in lv.

approval rating is still a 9 point spread. so maybe the bump from the economic news is just being phased out.
 
T

The Technomancer

card-carrying scientician
I really hope and want Biden to be on his A-game tonight, not just for the practical implications it might (lol) have on the election, but because it would be entertaining.

Here's hoping
 
J

Joe Shlabotnik

Banned
Effect said:
The debate days and weekend should be out of the next set of polls right? Every thing released so far has included them?
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Tomorrow's Gallup should wash out the apparent worst days for Obama, but look--we're basically a week out from the debate and the national numbers mostly held for Romney. If it's a "bounce" it's probably going to need actual news to pull it back.
 
G

GaimeGuy

Volunteer Deputy Campaign Director, Obama for America '16
Cloudy said:
Gallup RV 48 (-2) - 46 (+1) O
Gallup LV 48 (+1) - 47 (-1) R
Gallup O Approval - 52 (-1) - 43 (+1)
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How can so many people change their minds from 90 minutes of grandstanding when you've had months, no, years to get to know the candidates?

I just don't understand the mindset of these people
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Still pretty steady if you ask me. If Biden screws up, it will be blaring in the media until the next presidential debate, so it's very important he brings his game and holds his turf.

This was Romney's best week, and he still couldn't break free from Obama. Just goes to show again that Obama could've afforded a 3.5 point drop.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Nate Cohn:

tnr said:
At this stage, it appears that Romney made smaller gains in the battleground states than he did in the national polls. On average, Romney gained 2.1 points in battleground state polls, even though he picked up an average of 5.5 points in the 11 national surveys conducted after the first presidential debate....

Given Obama's pre-debate leads in the key battleground states, a 2.1 point gain would leave Romney well short of 270 electoral votes. In fact, Obama led by more than 4 points in states worth 281 electoral votes.

In particular, the Romney campaign should be distressed about Ohio. Even at what could very well be Romney’s peak, Obama leads in six of eight post-debate surveys in Ohio with CNN and NBC/Marist both showing Obama up by more than four points. On average, Obama leads by 2 or 3 points in Ohio, but right now it would be sufficient to reelect the president despite Romney’s lead in the national polls.
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When national and state polls don't align, the safe assumption is probably not that the state polls are wrong.

http://www.tnr.com/blog/electionate/108459/romneys-battleground-state-problem
 
A

Allard

Member
GaimeGuy said:
How can so many people change their minds from 90 minutes of grandstanding when you've had months, no, years to get to know the candidates?

I just don't understand the mindset of these people
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Probably a mix dumbness and the good old fashioned "Root for the winner, root for the underdog" syndrome, Romney is the underdog, and his debate performance lifted his chances so suddenly people are cheering him on, I think a poor performance might give a similar result for Romney where the people he took from debate 1 will suddenly flee him because they don't want to be seen cheering a sure loser. Some people just want to vote based on whim because they have no respect for the office and see both candidates as just politicians that will always do the same thing, so they vote with their gut.
 
C

Cloudy

Banned
GaimeGuy said:
How can so many people change their minds from 90 minutes of grandstanding when you've had months, no, years to get to know the candidates?

I just don't understand the mindset of these people
Click to expand...

The debate isn't what helped Romney. The over-the-top media coverage afterwards was far more beneficial...

Also, note that the approval is still over 50 and that is just a 3-day average. The horserace numbers still have Friday of last week..
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Great, so we're all fucked because Obama doesn't like debates.

I am kidding, of course, but what a peculiar animal he is.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
pigeon said:
Nate Cohn:



When national and state polls don't align, the safe assumption is probably not that the state polls are wrong.

http://www.tnr.com/blog/electionate/108459/romneys-battleground-state-problem
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Pretty sure the national and state polls won't align this year. It's just the state of the country now. Virginia has under 6% UE rate whereas Nevada is still in double digits (if I'm not mistaken). There's definitely gonna be difference between state and national polls.
 
G

GaimeGuy

Volunteer Deputy Campaign Director, Obama for America '16
Allard said:
Probably a mix dumbness and the good old fashioned "Root for the winner, root for the underdog" syndrome, Romney is the underdog, and his debate performance lifted his chances so suddenly people are cheering him on, I think a poor performance might give a similar result for Romney where the people he took from debate 1 will suddenly flee him because they don't want to be seen cheering a sure loser. Some people just want to vote based on whim because they have no respect for the office and see both candidates as just politicians that will always do the same thing, so they vote with their gut.
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How can anyone vote based on who they think will win in a 2-person race? I can understand a runoff ballot where you need to consider possible coalitions and rank the candidates, but when it's a 2 person race, voting based on who you think is going to win is absolutely terrible. As much as we treat politics liek a sport, I'd like to think people aren't so moronic as to cast their vote using the same reasoning as they do for buying a yankee/lakers jersey (or whoever the winner-of-the-year is)

How can so many people be like that? Where the hell are they? We're talking millions, no, tens of millions of people.
 
T

Tim-E

Member
Cloudy said:
The debate isn't what helped Romney. The over-the-top media coverage afterwards was far more beneficial...

Also, note that the approval is still over 50 and that is just a 3-day average. The horserace numbers still have Friday of last week..
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The media was itching to get their horse race back after Obama stomped all over him in September and they found their opening.
 
C

Crisco

Banned
gkryhewy said:
Honestly, if nothing else, Obama's blown debate has probably taken this off the table. Republicans are too engaged right now, when they were previously on the edge of checking out for the year.
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I'll sign on to this, as it was my initial reaction after the debate and the subsequent polling. Obama basically blew any chance of a wave election.
 
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