I think they are poll that has Romney going up.
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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.
- Thread starter Amir0x
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Yep!
Can't tell if you're serious. But if Obama wins the electoral vote decidedly, which it looks like he will, Romney isn't winning the popular vote...
I'm serious, and Obama wont do that. It's going to be incredibly close no matter who wins. Just sit back and wait and see. It's going to be a long election night.
That Reuters/Ipsos poll is quite telling. For him to now have a lead like that, a week out from the last debate and now right before the one for VP is a pretty big deal.
Orbis Tabula
Member
There used to be a day when I read every page of the PoliGAF thread. Not any more. You guys post wayyy to fucking fast around elections. I can't keep up. Now how am I supposed to get my "news"?
RustyNails
Member
Pretty telling that Obama can still hold Ohio and couple of swing states despite a national bump for Romney. This is 2004 all over again.
Silver discusses that in his latest post
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/11/oct-10-is-romney-leading-right-now/
worldrunover
Member
cartoon_soldier
Member
Strong number for Romney in Reuters/Ipsos.
Generally, people expect State Polls to come in line with the National Polls. A 2-3 point National margin of victory will translate into EC victory (even Nate says that) because at that kind of a National Margin you have enough vote lead in all the states too.
Very weird, now we have to see if Obama's numbers hold Steady in WI, OH for the PPP polls. And why is nobody polling IA?
Generally, people expect State Polls to come in line with the National Polls. A 2-3 point National margin of victory will translate into EC victory (even Nate says that) because at that kind of a National Margin you have enough vote lead in all the states too.
Very weird, now we have to see if Obama's numbers hold Steady in WI, OH for the PPP polls. And why is nobody polling IA?
yes, but the answer is #1 (a statistical quirk that will work its way out of the system), not sure why he spends so much time writing about it. He can't lead the national polls by 2 points and still be losing in all battleground states, one or the other will fall in line
You are such a joke character, much more so than PD
The Librarian
Banned
Good to hear. I only got to see a bit of the debates, but my understanding is Brown did himself no favors.
cartoon_soldier
Member
Brown is really not smart.
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
I'll admit to being thoroughly bewildered by pretty much all polls right now. Something has to be lagging waaaaayyy behind something, I just don't know which direction is which.
Either Obama flushed most of a national lead down the toilet with one less-than-inspiring debate, or one listless debate produced a temporary gigantic bounce--either way it's just bizarre.
Either Obama flushed most of a national lead down the toilet with one less-than-inspiring debate, or one listless debate produced a temporary gigantic bounce--either way it's just bizarre.
i've been off on gallup by one day. tomorrow we'll start seeing the effects of the immediate aftermath of the debate being phased out.
i'm thinking the high approval rating might have come off the back of improving unemployment numbers, but we'll see. they seem unusually high given the gloom and doom elsewhere.
i'm thinking the high approval rating might have come off the back of improving unemployment numbers, but we'll see. they seem unusually high given the gloom and doom elsewhere.
PhoenixDark
Banned
Brown was very condescending in the first two debates, especially the second where he jumped out the gate with the Native American stuff; I thought he did fine on issues but clearly he turned voters off. Last night he stayed on message and did well, the problem is that Warren did better. She's very good at debating and condensing liberalism in a way people can understand/accept. Somewhat like what Paul Ryan does for conservatism.
He's basically running as two people. On one hand he tells out-of-state republican leadership and groups that he's their man; on the other hand he goes back to MA and says he's a moderate who respects Obama and wouldn't go to lunch with Mitch McConnell for free. It's just not working anymore
The Technomancer
card-carrying scientician
I really hope and want Biden to be on his A-game tonight, not just for the practical implications it might (lol) have on the election, but because it would be entertaining.
Here's hoping
Here's hoping
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
Tomorrow's Gallup should wash out the apparent worst days for Obama, but look--we're basically a week out from the debate and the national numbers mostly held for Romney. If it's a "bounce" it's probably going to need actual news to pull it back.
jamesinclair
Banned
I don't think its an understatement to say that the future of America, nay, the world, rests on tonights debate
StopMakingSense
Member
Warren 51 - Brown 45 - PPP
Very good.
How can so many people change their minds from 90 minutes of grandstanding when you've had months, no, years to get to know the candidates?
I just don't understand the mindset of these people
RustyNails
Member
Still pretty steady if you ask me. If Biden screws up, it will be blaring in the media until the next presidential debate, so it's very important he brings his game and holds his turf.
This was Romney's best week, and he still couldn't break free from Obama. Just goes to show again that Obama could've afforded a 3.5 point drop.
This was Romney's best week, and he still couldn't break free from Obama. Just goes to show again that Obama could've afforded a 3.5 point drop.
TacticalFox88
Banned
Warren winning.
Baldwin Winning
Obama blowout
Dems taking back the house.
Blue Dogs voted out
If all five of these were to happen I'd think I could jump for absolute joy.
i think you also better start playing the lottery
Nate Cohn:
When national and state polls don't align, the safe assumption is probably not that the state polls are wrong.
http://www.tnr.com/blog/electionate/108459/romneys-battleground-state-problem
tnr said:
When national and state polls don't align, the safe assumption is probably not that the state polls are wrong.
http://www.tnr.com/blog/electionate/108459/romneys-battleground-state-problem
Probably a mix dumbness and the good old fashioned "Root for the winner, root for the underdog" syndrome, Romney is the underdog, and his debate performance lifted his chances so suddenly people are cheering him on, I think a poor performance might give a similar result for Romney where the people he took from debate 1 will suddenly flee him because they don't want to be seen cheering a sure loser. Some people just want to vote based on whim because they have no respect for the office and see both candidates as just politicians that will always do the same thing, so they vote with their gut.
Honestly, if nothing else, Obama's blown debate has probably taken this off the table. Republicans are too engaged right now, when they were previously on the edge of checking out for the year.
Especially not in the face of high favorables for Obama and strong downticket polls for dems in states Romney needs to win.
The debate isn't what helped Romney. The over-the-top media coverage afterwards was far more beneficial...
Also, note that the approval is still over 50 and that is just a 3-day average. The horserace numbers still have Friday of last week..
So good. I've been a fan of hers since before she announced she was running for Senate and it's great to think she'll be in the US senate.
Anyone with recent Baldwin/Thompson numbers?
Absolutely true.
RustyNails
Member
Pretty sure the national and state polls won't align this year. It's just the state of the country now. Virginia has under 6% UE rate whereas Nevada is still in double digits (if I'm not mistaken). There's definitely gonna be difference between state and national polls.
How can anyone vote based on who they think will win in a 2-person race? I can understand a runoff ballot where you need to consider possible coalitions and rank the candidates, but when it's a 2 person race, voting based on who you think is going to win is absolutely terrible. As much as we treat politics liek a sport, I'd like to think people aren't so moronic as to cast their vote using the same reasoning as they do for buying a yankee/lakers jersey (or whoever the winner-of-the-year is)
How can so many people be like that? Where the hell are they? We're talking millions, no, tens of millions of people.
The media was itching to get their horse race back after Obama stomped all over him in September and they found their opening.
I'll sign on to this, as it was my initial reaction after the debate and the subsequent polling. Obama basically blew any chance of a wave election.
TacticalFox88
Banned
Goddammit don't ruin the dream! :'(
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