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[Loudninja]

When is the Wapo/ABC poll out?

Didn't that already came out?

Edit:Nvm thinking of something else.

 

[Kusagari]

I see no way Obama actually loses if his approval rating remains that high.

 

[schuelma]

How can so many people change their minds from 90 minutes of grandstanding when you've had months, no, years to get to know the candidates?

I just don't understand the mindset of these people

Seriously? It was the first time you saw both candidates head to head in what was in all honestly a pretty substantive debate.

It is certainly more valuable than the ads both sides run.

 

[codhand]

I overheard a crew of four 50 smths at lunch. "Obama was awful, Romney looked Presidential. They say the attack was from that video, but it wasn't. Ryan's a smart guy."

 

[schuelma]

approval rating is still a 9 point spread. so maybe the bump from the economic news is just being phased out.

I know Gallup recently changed their methodology in a way that is favorable to Obama. I'm not sure if this shift is just for the approval rating or for the actual head to head as well.

 

[gcubed]

So good. I've been a fan of hers since before she announced she was running for Senate and it's great to think she'll be in the US senate.

Anyone with recent Baldwin/Thompson numbers?

Baldwin still up i think 2 in the last poll, it was either yesterday or the day before

 

[pigeon]

I know Gallup recently changed their methodology in a way that is favorable to Obama. I'm not sure if this shift is just for the approval rating or for the actual head to head as well.

Well, to be precise, they changed their methodology to sample more cell phones. If this is favorable to Obama, it's because their previous methodology was inaccurately unfavorable. I believe it applies to their entire political tracker.

 

[schuelma]

Well, to be precise, they changed their methodology to sample more cell phones. If this is favorable to Obama, it's because their previous methodology was inaccurately unfavorable. I believe it applies to their entire political tracker.

I believe they also raised the non-white sample as well.

 

[Loudninja]

Well, to be precise, they changed their methodology to sample more cell phones. If this is favorable to Obama, it's because their previous methodology was inaccurately unfavorable. I believe it applies to their entire political tracker.

I believe they also raised the non-white sample as well.

I am kinda confuse to why this was not done before?

 

[Sirpopopop]

How can so many people change their minds from 90 minutes of grandstanding when you've had months, no, years to get to know the candidates?

I just don't understand the mindset of these people

Most voters are low information voters.

They don't get their information from actually watching the news cycle. They get it from watching the debate.

They get their information on the candidate platforms and promises from watching the debate.

They don't care about 47%, or pre-existing conditions. They don't even know about them.

 

[GaimeGuy]

Seriously? It was the first time you saw both candidates head to head in what was in all honestly a pretty substantive debate.

It is certainly more valuable than the ads both sides run.

Yes, I'm serious. It isn't like other countries where you start a campaign, and then the debates are a week later, and then there's another week of campaigning, and then the election. We spend closer to 30 months than 30 days campaigning. A debate 1 month before the election should not have such a big impact when there is so much time for the candidates to define themselves otherwise (and when there's only 2 of them!)


We're not talking about a few individuals, we're talking about millions.

 

[Cheebo]

They readjusted their tracking numbers for the period they said to match the new demographics so the changes are all already factored in.

 

[Dude Abides]

Employer? Our employer was awesome through the whole ordeal. The union drive people were nothing short of thugs. To the point that the police had to get involved, restraining orders were being filed, some employees were outright quitting rather than put up with it all. I realise not all drives are like this, but it leaves a bad taste in your mouth.

I always find it strange how one incident can leave a bad taste in a person's mouth with regard to employee rights in general, whereas no amount of corporate malfeasance will lead to equivalent disdain for the corporate form.

 

[el retorno]

Don't know if this is old but Issa wants to investigate the September jobs numbers. If the republicans keep the house are they gonna open birther investigations?

http://thinkprogress.org/economy/20...o-september-jobs-number-conspiracy/?mobile=nc

FOX HOST: Talking about Darrell Issa. We asked him last night whether or not he was concerned about Friday’s jobs report and the big drop in the unemployment rate from 8.1% to 7.8%, which some economists have called fluky and as a result there have been questions about the labor department methodology in calculating the unemployment report. Now the chairman says he wants to have hearings on this, take a listen.

ISSA: The way it is being done with the constant revisions say it is not as exact science as it needs to be and there has to be a better way to get those numbers or don’t put them out if they will be wrong but as much as half a point.

FOX HOST: He was asked when he wants to have these hearings. The lame duck session of Congress will see in mid-November, we very much intend to work every day through november and december to get these kind of things done. We’re hoping this is a good nonpartisan time. This is an issue where our committee has important sure jurisdiction.

lol

 

[schuelma]

Yes, I'm serious. It isn't like other countries where you start a campaign, and then the debates are a week later, and then there's another week of campaigning, and then the election. We spend closer to 30 months than 30 days campaigning. A debate 1 month before the election should not have such a big impact when there is so much time for the candidates to define themselves otherwise (and when there's only 2 of them!)


We're not talking about a few individuals, we're talking about millions.

The campaigning up to this point has been stump speeches, convention speeches, and ads.

I think a debate where the two sides engage back and forth is a lot more valuable.

 

[Loudninja]

Don't know if this is old but Issa wants to investigate the September jobs numbers. If the republicans keep the house are they gonna open birther investigations?

http://thinkprogress.org/economy/20...o-september-jobs-number-conspiracy/?mobile=nc



lol

This guy is such a clown.

 

[MetatronM]

The idea that the state polls are probably more indicative the actual state of the election than the national polls are is probably fairly accurate.

The major thing to take into account is that Romney almost certainly made much larger gains post-debate in states that were already red than he did in battleground states due to energizing the base, but the battlegrounds are the states that make up the lion's share of the state polls and are the ones that will actually have an impact on election day. It doesn't really matter for the actual results of the election if Romney gained 6 or 7 points in Montana or Georgia but only gains 2 or 3 points in Ohio. Of course, the issue with that is that we don't really have many pre- and post-debate polls in definitively red states to really know for sure.

Truth, as usual, is probably somewhere in the middle, and the fact is that the current state of the race is going to change one way or the other in the next couple of days anyway.

 

[codhand]

Yes, I'm serious. It isn't like other countries where you start a campaign, and then the debates are a week later, and then there's another week of campaigning, and then the election. We spend closer to 30 months than 30 days campaigning. A debate 1 month before the election should not have such a big impact when there is so much time for the candidates to define themselves otherwise (and when there's only 2 of them!)


We're not talking about a few individuals, we're talking about millions.

You gotta like the fact we get a good long look at who we're voting for. Not saying it's ideal, but neither is the process in the UK, as many seem to think.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Scott Brown has it on lockdown etc.

 

[Tom_Cody]

How can so many people change their minds from 90 minutes of grandstanding when you've had months, no, years to get to know the candidates?

I just don't understand the mindset of these people

Romney had a great performance in the debate and ~5% of voters who are most impressionable switched sides. I think that sounds about right. This same small percentage of the electorate will likely shift around until they vote on November 5th

Spoiler

or don't at all

.

 

[Y2Kev]

Scott Brown has it on lockdown etc.

We said that about Obama until he went into tank mode!

 

[DragonSworne]

The campaigning up to this point has been stump speeches, convention speeches, and ads.

I think a debate where the two sides engage back and forth is a lot more valuable.

Because that's how the country is run, through debate speeches.

 

[GaimeGuy]

You gotta like the fact we get a good long look at who we're voting for. Not saying it's ideal, but neither is the process in the UK, as many seem to think.

And yet somehow you get a much more nuanced look when you have 8 candidates and a 3 week election cycle than you do with 2 candidates and an 18 month cycle. Our culture, our media, our "news," and our politics are pathetic.

 

[Loudninja]

Court: Ohio Can’t Throw Out Ballots Because Of Poll Worker Error

The 6th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals ruled on Thursady that Ohio can't toss out ballots that were cast in the wrong precinct but in the right location because of poll worker error. Election lawyer Rick Hasen called it the "most important decision in this election cycle."

"The State would disqualify thousands of rightplace/wrong-precinct provisional ballots, where the voter’s only mistake was relying on the poll-worker’s precinct guidance," the court ruled. "That path unjustifiably burdens these voters’ fundamental right to vote."

http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/court-ohio-cant-throw-out-ballots-because-of

 

[The Librarian]

We said that about Obama until he went into tank mode!

Any moment gained from a debate can be turned around in another debate.

 

[codhand]

And yet somehow you get a much more nuanced look when you have 8 candidates and a 3 week election cycle than you do with 2 candidates and an 18 month cycle. Our culture, our media, our "news," and our politics are pathetic.

Man, take it easy, I highly doubt Brits think their media is any better in the UK, it's arguably worse.

 

[GaimeGuy]

Wait, different precincts use the same voting locations?

Oh right, Columbus is gerrymandered into 3 different federal house districts and like 20 or 30 state districts. No wonder

 

[Crisco]

Court: Ohio Can’t Throw Out Ballots Because Of Poll Worker Error

http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/court-ohio-cant-throw-out-ballots-because-of

I fully expect a rash of "voter fraud stole the election" headlines the day after Obama wins.

 

[XenodudeX]

Hopefully Joe has a good showing tonight. He's gotta go after Ryan and Romney while defending the presidents record convincingly. That's gonna be hard.

 

[richiek]

Libertarians Prevail Against 9-Week Republican Attack on Ballot Access in PA

Republican President candidate Mitt Romney has likely lost his last hope for a victory in the electoral-rich state of Pennsylvania.

Commonwealth Court Senior Judge James G. Colins ruled late today that the Libertarian Party of Pennsylvania has filed nominating petitions containing more than the required 20,601 valid signatures and that the entire slate of statewide Libertarian candidates will remain on the November 6 general election ballot, including Libertarians two-term Governor Gary Johnson for President and Judge Jim Gray for Vice President.

The ruling was a stinging defeat for Republicans who waged a grueling and expensive 9-week battle to force their Libertarian Party competition off the November ballot.

 

[Loudninja]

Well they dont have much left in Ohio do they?

They tried everything.

 

[Hobbestetrician]

I went to bed feeling pretty good because of the polls that came in late but the hopium sure did wear off fast.

 

[XenodudeX]

I went to bed feeling pretty good because of the polls that came in late but the hopium sure did wear off fast.

Those national tracking polls sting pretty bad. He needs to bring those up somehow.

 

[ivysaur12]

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390443982904578044942772937744.html

This article just popped up in my facebook feed around 5 or 6 times.

 

[Snake]

I went to bed feeling pretty good because of the polls that came in late but the hopium sure did wear off fast.

Ipsos/gallup polls weren't good news, but they aren't terrible either.

And the swing state polling is pretty damn encouraging so far.

 

[saelz8]

Libertarians Prevail Against 9-Week Republican Attack on Ballot Access in PA

I thought Republicans wanted small government?

 

[Cloudy]

I see some sites giving Obama OH but not NH? Is there anyway Obama could win OH and lose NH?

 

[Aaron Strife]

Rasmussen found Romney leading by 3 in North Carolina, actually a 1-point improvement for Obama since they last polled it.

Don't know why they even bothered, everyone knows NC is solid red.

 

[RDreamer]

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390443982904578044942772937744.html

This article just popped up in my facebook feed around 5 or 6 times.

What the goddamned fuck is going on with this country. Just because you fucking pay for it elsewhere doesn't magically make it not a $5 trillion tax cut. Can I tell my girlfriend I didn't spend $60 on a game, because, hey, I worked today, so that offset the cost? That game is now free! This is just fucking silly all around.

 

[Zabka]

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390443982904578044942772937744.html

This article just popped up in my facebook feed around 5 or 6 times.

It's pretty bullshitty. The Democrats have been saying from the beginning that the deductions he would eliminate would be harmful to the middle class. Nothing in that article changes anything, just trying to reframe the debate.

 

[PhoenixDark]

I see some sites giving Obama OH but not NH? Is there anyway Obama could win OH and lose NH?

I don't understand these "if Obama wins x he will certainly win y too" arguments. NH has more registered republicans than democrats and Romney is popular there. It's a completely different situation than Ohio; and while Wisconsin and Michigan are mid western states they also have differences from Ohio.

 

[CygnusXS]

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390443982904578044942772937744.html

This article just popped up in my facebook feed around 5 or 6 times.

Is that an Onion piece?

 

[codhand]

I didn't realize Romney made his "health care is a choice" statement in Central Ohio.

 

[Aaron Strife]

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390443982904578044942772937744.html

This article just popped up in my facebook feed around 5 or 6 times.

Can we stop calling Obamacare a trillion dollar healthcare takeover then since it doesn't add anything to the deficit?

 

[GhaleonEB]

Warren 51 - Brown 45 - PPP

Encouraging. Warren is over the 50% mark. Given that her support is largely based on Dems coming home, I think she's not going to give up the lead.

I look foward to Scott Brown leaving the Senate.

Court: Ohio Can’t Throw Out Ballots Because Of Poll Worker Error

http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/court-ohio-cant-throw-out-ballots-because-of

Also fantastic news. Man, Ohio is just proving to be a tough nut for Romney. Can't win over the voters, can't restrict early voting access, and now can't get votes invalidated. At this rate they're just going to up and count the votes and show him losing. I wonder what his Plan D is there.

 

[CharlieDigital]

Been busy working this week and haven't followed PoliGAF as much.

So can I surmise that Obama is going to lose?

 

[The Lamonster]

Been busy working this week and haven't followed PoliGAF as much.

So can I surmise that Obama is going to lose?

Why would you surmise that? It's still looking pretty good for Obama.

 

[codhand]

Man that Onion article is proving to be so accurate.

Why would you surmise that?

Maybe because he really has been following Poligaf?

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Been busy working this week and haven't followed PoliGAF as much.

So can I surmise that Obama is going to lose?

Currently he is losing the Popular vote, while winning the EC according to polls.

 

[HylianTom]

Been busy working this week and haven't followed PoliGAF as much.

So can I surmise that Obama is going to lose?

Nope. Still the favorite, easily. His electoral firewall is holding-up pretty well (especially Ohio). If anything, the chances of a national/electoral vote split have gone up incrementally.

Still plenty of time, though.