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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.
- Thread starter Amir0x
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Only if you wish to be pleasantly surprised on election day.
Black Republican
Member
So according to Ari Melber, Rep Issa said on Fox he will be holding a investigative hearing tommorow on last fridays Jobs report
what the fucking fuck?
what the fucking fuck?
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Who would have thought Rasmussen would be the only one showing an Obama lead.
Hobbestetrician
Member
Can I have some of your ice water?
Instead of, you know, trying to actually passing some legislation to spur job creation.
at least they're focusing on jobs in one way or another with a laser-like focus.
Dude Abides
Banned
Yep. I'm not sure why people are so sanguine about the state poll situation. If he wins the EC but loses the popular vote, he's a lame duck from day one.
I'll be honest, and I posted something like this yesterday- as someone who is probably to the right of everyone in this thread, I agree that Obama is still the favorite but I don't quite get the overwhelming confidence most people have. Romney is now leading basically every national poll right now and is 50/50 in Florida, Virginia, and Colorado. The only reason I still feel Obama is the favorite right now is Ohio. If Ohio starts to tighten more, it gets to 50/50 pretty quickly in my book.
You guys all watched the beginning of the October 9th Daily Show, right? Does the best job ever of eviscerating Romney.
Phoenician_Viking
Banned
I´m concerned that Joe will lose the debate tonight against Paul. Obama disappointed me in the debate that i have to say i´m anxious for the rest of the debates. I hope that Joe does not play as a gentleman and starts to destroy Paul
Fragamemnon
Member
I think people are a bit more confident than you are because they believe Romney is experiencing a bounce from the debate, where he actually had the same kind of impression that many challengers get when they do battle with the incumbents, combined with a leveling off of a monthlong high that Obama enjoyed after the DNC and 47% remarks.
Basically, if this is the actual extent of Obama's potential floor and Romney's high water mark, and he's still not reliably ahead where he needs to be, when the race reverts to the mean (which it will tend to do so as we get closer to the election), Obama will still have his two or three point win.
Basically, if this is the actual extent of Obama's potential floor and Romney's high water mark, and he's still not reliably ahead where he needs to be, when the race reverts to the mean (which it will tend to do so as we get closer to the election), Obama will still have his two or three point win.
Red Blaster
Member
I'm trying to remember how Joe did against Palin but literally the only thing that comes to mind is Palin winking and conservative bloggers getting wood as a result.
Obviously this is all ridiculous as I try and make conclusions based on new polls every day, but the debate has been over for a week now- I believe most of the national polls coming out are done polling last Thursday and Friday- and yet Romney seems to be holding on pretty well. It looks like a more sustained bounce than we thought at the beginning of the week.
i don't see any reason biden would hold back. he has experience in congress, he's relatively energetic, he doesn't have to worry about appearing as the angry black man, or appearing sexist.
i haven't seen ryan in a debate, but i have seen his clinton impersonation and it's not very good.
smokeandmirrors
Banned
The word Maverick (tm) was thrown out a lot...
Hobbestetrician
Member
While I am not in the overwhelmingly confident group, Romney can have Virginia, Colorado, and Florida. Hell, give him iowa and New Hampshire, too. Obama just needs Ohio and Nevada ( while keeping the Kerry states) to win. Most places are saying that even though Romney has made large gains nationally, it has only resulted in marginal gains in battleground states.
cartoon_soldier
Member
I'm not panicked because there's just too much time left. If we were behind in many state polls in the final week, I'd be a bit more jittery. That, and I tend to put stock in the theory that Obama is still favored in the event of a state poll tie, just due to his highly superior ground game.
The fastest way to get me to panic? Ohio starts to tighten. But I remain convinced that Ohio is pretty much a done deal, which means that Mitt has pretty much zero room for error on that beautiful, tilted map.
Obama "losing" one of the last two debates in similar fashion would also make me nervous. (and I put "losing" in sarcastic quotes because I dock my debate scoring based on lying)
I'm usually a nervous guy, used to watching the Dems lose repeatedly, having followed these campaigns since '88. But this time, I remain quite bouyant. Ice in my veins, freeper tears in my champagne.
I think the consensus was that Biden won that debate.
Yes. If Obama wins a plurality of votes in Ohio, and Romney wins a plurality of votes in NH, then that is a scenario in which Obama would win OH and lose NH
Bah, hopefully someone throws that segment on youtube.
And they haven't I guess, because it takes like 10 minutes to thoroughly go through? I dunno.
it was somewhat of a tie. palin didn't self-combust onstage, and biden was able to hold back but not go obama debate #1 on everything. tie went to the runner though, who was palin.
biden vs. ryan? eh, two experienced congressmen, one a 'gaffe-machine', the other a liar. i think old man biden vs a young ryan might be a tough image to overcome, but it's slightly skewed in biden's favor if he's able to nail ryan on his lies.
PPP Massachusetts
Obama 55
Romney 41
Warren 50
Brown 44
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/warren-up-6-obama-up-14-in-massachusetts.html
Obama 55
Romney 41
Warren 50
Brown 44
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/warren-up-6-obama-up-14-in-massachusetts.html
Remember, this is basically where things were before 47%. Here's the thing: let's say that the swing states really are 50/50. Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, Wisconsin, Iowa, New Hampshire. 104 electoral votes.
Obama still has a 50 vote lead in non-swing states. So if he wins half of those 104 votes? He wins. If he wins any four states not including New Hampshire? He's at minimum 268. He doesn't have to win them all. Romney has to pick up an awful lot of them.
PhoenixDark
Banned
I watched thirty minutes of it yesterday, Biden did great. Palin's expectations were so low that conservatives could argue she won, but Biden clearly won according polls; he had command of the issues while Palin tried to focus on the one issue she claimed to know (energy).
But Paul is a strong debater and very good at defending bullshit. I expect Biden to be beaten and for polls to reflect it. He won't be utterly embarrassed like Obama last week, at least...but I think he'll fuck up with a gaffe that defines the debate
Yeah I guess that is what it comes down to. If you think Ohio is in the bag there really isn't much to worry about.
Joe did fine, he was calm and precise and unlike Palin was advocate for the top of the ticket rather then just for himself which is precisely what is needed for this debate to make up for Obama's poor performance. He just needs to be more aggressive then he was against Palin which won't be hard to do... part of the reason he is known as the gaffe master is he makes a lot of off the cuff remarks that hit and miss during debates or one on one talks and stumping. But I want to stay cautious even though I think Joe will be fine, I thought Obama was going to be just fine and he came across as positively wooden during the debate where it looked like his only purpose was to stump for himself and not defend himself from on the spot criticism. Either way I think if they really do unleash the Biden in all its glory its going to be an entertaining debate no matter who ends up the 'winner' lol.
RustyNails
Member
Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa
Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa
Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa
x99
That's all Bams needs. Mitts can take Best Carolina and Virginia.
The Chosen One
Member
The consensus was that Biden won the substance of the debate but that overall it was a tie because Palin managed to speak in mostly coherent sentences.
Remember going into the VP debate, expectations were extremely low for Palin because she just came off the heels of the Katie Couric interview. Palin was such a flyweight that Biden couldn't really debate her directly. He had to let Palin sink or swim on her own. Ultimately she managed to "float" due to the multitude of floatation devices her handlers equipped her with, so she exceeded the very low expectations.
looking at polls and senate races, i think it's probably more likely that obama winds up with virginia, ohio, and iowa.
i think he'll get wisconsin too. i just tend to keep that one blue in my head since that's where my family comes from and they're all democrats (so just a massive amount of projecting).
Do you have a link to or have you seen Ryan debates? AFAIK he has never had a debate of this caliber.
Biden did alright but didn't destroy her. He was obviously and deliberately using kid gloves with her because it was already clear that she was a liability to the McCain campaign and if he was too aggressive he would run the risk of looking like he was bullying a "poor defenseless woman." Basically, his mission was to just not stir the pot and let Palin do her thing, occasionally calling her out on things but mostly just letting her do her thing. There were several times where Biden flashed a "can you believe this shit?" sort of a smile.
His mission against Ryan is very different than what it was against Palin. They know Ryan is going to lie, and they know the President lost big points because he wasn't aggressive in calling out lies. Simultaneously, both Ryan and Biden are going to be trying to charm blue collar rust belt voters. That's why both of them are on their tickets, to empathize with voters from Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, etc.
Basically, Biden's debate with Ryan is far more important to the campaign than his debate with Palin was. That was more a formality that just needed to be taken care of for the sake of decorum.
eBay Huckster
Member
can someone remind me why everyone's discounting NC still being a swing state again
Hobbestetrician
Member
Or substitute Nevada for Iowa. OR Virginia. OR Florida. OR Colorado.
While Romney's path includes a lot of ANDs.
Quotes like this give a little bit of hope for the VP debate.
Biden: No rope-a-dope
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/election-2012/wp/2012/10/11/biden-no-rope-a-dope/?wprss=rss_politics
Perfect response. I want haymakers, not jabs! Go for the KO.
Biden: No rope-a-dope
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/election-2012/wp/2012/10/11/biden-no-rope-a-dope/?wprss=rss_politics
Perfect response. I want haymakers, not jabs! Go for the KO.
RustyNails
Member
I hope someone from Biden's staff is reading this (that's you, Diablos), but Biden should also be prepared about his legislative history. Ryan WILL pull a legislation from Biden's past where it cut xx or taxed xx.
No one's discounting it, it's just not necessary along with Florida/VA/CO/NV. As stated, Ohio/Iowa/Wisconsin is the firewall that Romney can't break. Wisconsin isn't going for Romney and Obama's ground game in Iowa/Ohio is significant with early voting in both states.
Yeah I don't understand it either. I haven't seen any recent polls for it but it looked like a real toss-up last time I checked because of the conflicting poll numbers.
Half and half
Member
LOL
Pollsters trolling the hell out of people man.
cartoon_soldier
Member
Need more Polls for IA
And OH
And WI
I declare that all Pollsters must poll these every 2 days.
They've appealed the early vote to the supreme court.
RustyNails
Member
Dude's going in for the kill.
Fuck I hope he destroys Ryan's career tonight. I hate that smug randian lunatic.
Does not matter.
The Technomancer
card-carrying scientician
This needs to be a political ad. A 9 minute political ad
I'm seeing the "leaning Obama" map looking like Kerry (minus New Hampshire) plus Ohio plus New Hampshire. This gets Obama to 265EVs. If Obama wins any one of CO/IA/NV/VA/NC/FL, it's over.
Another thing that could make me nervous? Imagine on Election Night the map being called like this, with IA/VA/FL/NC/NH being called for Romney, with the election coming-down to the two Mountain Time Zone states - CO and NV. That'd give us all a good scare.
Another thing that could make me nervous? Imagine on Election Night the map being called like this, with IA/VA/FL/NC/NH being called for Romney, with the election coming-down to the two Mountain Time Zone states - CO and NV. That'd give us all a good scare.
Lost Fragment
Obsessed with 4chan
eBay Huckster
Member
thankfully, NH should get called almost immediately
StopMakingSense
Member
Needs to say "I Literally Got This!"
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