cartoon_soldier
Member
That National number is just scary.
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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.
- Thread starter Amir0x
- Start date
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That National number is just scary.
Awesome.
That would get us to at the very least a House of Representatives/Senate --> President Romney/Vice President Biden scenario.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Yeah.
If he wins Wisconsin and Ohio (both states he's heavily favored in), he only needs to win one more swing state that's not New Hampshire. Iowa or Nevada would suffice.
If he wins Florida he only needs one more swing state.
There's also the time-tested Kerry strategy, winning Colorado, Nevada, and Iowa in addition to the other Kerry states. (New Mexico is safe Obama let's not kid ourselves)
Virginia plus Nevada or Iowa would also give him a victory.
Romney needs to win Ohio, North Carolina, Florida, and Virginia for sure AND another swing state on top of that.
This seems to be his safest strategy. Romney has failed to connect with the Midwest.
Yeah I'm pretty sure they're talking about the national poll they already released.
So good. Don't let us down Biden, crack open a cold one before you go out there tonight.
StopMakingSense
Member
That's the delta, not the actual head-to-head difference, i think.
eBay Huckster
Member
Stephanie Cutter on CNN right now talking about the administration's "mixed messages" regarding the Libya attacks. Anchor just brought up Vile Rat's mother's comments on AC360
Early voting in Iowa has be great for Dems so far. I'm finding it harder and harder to believe Obama won't take Iowa. Obama will enjoy Harry Reid's ground game and democratic machine working for him in Nevada. I think Obama takes VA due to superior ground operations. CO and FL, I think, are true toss-ups that can go either way. I think NC is a lost cause, however.
He's not losing Iowa.
Seriously, just use some of that billion dollars he has to pay comedy central and play this segment on every national channel possible.
The Chosen One
Member
I can't recall Biden making a significant gaffe in any debate the last decade or so. In interviews or on the campaign trail sure, but in debates he's always been extremely sharp. He doesn't go off on emotional tangents in debates. This whole Biden Gaffe meme will probably play into his favor because everyone is expecting him to make some huge unforced error or mistake. In the dozens of debates in the Dem presidential primaries in '08, Biden was the strongest and most consistent debater even while Hillary and Biden had their ups and downs.
I doubt Biden will "destroy" Ryan like some liberals are expecting. But I see him having a strong debate performance, which should give him the slight victory among independents and the pundit class. Ryan may be a good debater as well but he has to run away and massage too many of his positions, so he has a higher hill to climb. I think the big challenge for Biden is simply not letting Ryan get away with outright lies unchallenged. The biggest sin Obama committed last week was allowing Romney's many flip-flops and falsehoods seem plausible by not really contesting any of them. Most viewers don't know what's true or not. They just go by how looks more confident spouting out their bullshit and what gets disputed by the other candidate.
Black Republican
Member
all he needs to do is just lay back and let ryan self implode!
You and I are of one mind on every single swing state.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Rasmussen has Warren up in MA, 49-47.
Show's over, folks.
Show's over, folks.
The Lamonster
Member
Anyone see the Onion's Ryan shop today?
NSFW http://www.theonion.com/articles/naked-tiedup-paul-ryan-tells-staff-he-cant-prepare,29872/
NSFW http://www.theonion.com/articles/naked-tiedup-paul-ryan-tells-staff-he-cant-prepare,29872/
Seriously. It IS 2004 all over again. More and more people are starting to see it.
Aaron Strife
Banned
I don't want to compare it to 2004. That just makes me think of liberal disappointment.
TacticalFox88
Banned
2004 all over again? lolno.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Only thing missing is Zogby polls.
Yes. The parallels to 2004 has been incredible so far.
An incumbent who's liked but vulnerable
The challenger who's a rich north easterner
The first debate where the incumbent had a horrible debate performance and the challenger made a comeback
Don't forget the accusations of cheating in Ohio leveled by the losing side!
Aaron Strife
Banned
Kerry's up in Tennessee, guys!
I look forward to the veep debate - while likely not consequental - going off-script. Lieberman and Cheney basically were best buds at their debate. Biden and Ryan will be at each other's throats.
TacticalFox88
Banned
Considering that Biden likely despises Romney and Ryan, this comes as no surprise.
A timely article about Romney's Battleground State Problem.
http://www.tnr.com/blog/electionate/108459/romneys-battleground-state-problem
http://www.tnr.com/blog/electionate/108459/romneys-battleground-state-problem
Captain Pants
Killed by a goddamned Dredgeling
For my fellow chicken littles, this should be a bit reassuring.
Obama may be over-performing in battleground states.
Obama may be over-performing in battleground states.
Aaron Strife
Banned
I'm not terribly surprised. The swing state campaign has been markedly different from the national campaign. Voters in Ohio, Virginia, Florida etc. must know the candidates inside and out by now. Most of those states also have early voting which already bakes in Obama's lead.
Romney's lead nationally is still troublesome, but hopefully it subsides or Obama picks up the momentum again.
Dude Abides
Banned
I hope Biden has a line as good as "noun, verb, and 9/11" cooked up. Ryan really needs to be taken down a peg.
If they tried just a little harder, they could have done something special with alliteration.
I guess the big question is where is Romney is picking up his national lead from? It sure isn't in the Midwest, the Northeast, or the Left Coast.
The Lamonster
Member
I think most people feel the opposite - that Romney is more likable (especially after the debate). We don't yet know if Ryan is going to lie his ass off as Romney did, but we DO know that Ryan is a stiff while Biden can be very charming.
And Biden performed wonderfully in his last VP debate. It's his off-the-cuff remarks that get him in trouble, not his debates.
titiklabingapat
Member
Most of Romney's national uptick seem to be from a more energized GOP base(especially red states) and the Dems losing some morale(especially in blue states, as evidenced with Obama losing some steam in the recent blue state polls). I was concerned about the downticket races being dragged by Obama's lackluster performance, but the polls show that they are holding steady. I'm quite confident that the Dems will come back home to roost as election day nears, especially if Obama/Biden throws a more aggressive punch in the next few debates.
When Ryan speaks the desire to punch him just builds and builds. The way he looks and sounds just annoys me. This was even before he was picked for VP. I can at least say Romney has never bothered me like that.
Dude Abides
Banned
Pic from Paul Ryan's Time photoshoot:
Yeah.
Yeah.
I can attest to Obama's strong ground game here in Ohio. My wife and I have gotten mail nearly every week making sure we are registered, and telling us where to vote. We've even gotten phone calls from Obama staffers reminding us of our deadlines and our closest polling places. Even got some Obama bumper stickers and yard signs from the registration event this passed Tuesday.
My brother in law supports Romney, and is a registered Republican and has gotten nothing.
eBay Huckster
Member
i don't know national crosstabs beyond the pew poll that everyone here was freaking out about, but a decent bit of this uptick actually seems to be coming from the south
Pic from Paul Ryan's Time photoshoot:
Yeah.
Wow, he looks like more of a douchebag than usual.
It's coming from most parts of the country.
The Lamonster
Member
What the fuck is he doing in that photo and what's up with the red cap? Jesus christ.
RustyNails
Member
Darrell Issa is such a partisan fuck.
1. Political witchhunt against Atty Holder with no proof of any wrongdoing from his office
2. Political withchunt against State Dept before they even finished their investigation
3. Now an "investigation" into BLS.
4. Probably an investigation into members of congress who watch PBS
5. Investigation about investigation
1. Political witchhunt against Atty Holder with no proof of any wrongdoing from his office
2. Political withchunt against State Dept before they even finished their investigation
3. Now an "investigation" into BLS.
4. Probably an investigation into members of congress who watch PBS
5. Investigation about investigation
StopMakingSense
Member
Speaking of battleground states, update from OFA:
https://secure.assets.bostatic.com/pdfs/Voter_Reg_and_Early_Voting_FINAL.pdf
https://secure.assets.bostatic.com/pdfs/Voter_Reg_and_Early_Voting_FINAL.pdf
Dat ground game. Amazing.
Hobbestetrician
Member
Pic from Paul Ryan's Time photoshoot:
Yeah.
Doesn't quite lend itself to the 'Chill the fuck out. I got this' meme in any serious way like that Biden picture. What a total douche. I gotta think the photographer was laughing quite hysterically internally while snapping that shot.
I smell a caption contest!
No f'ing way. That was Obama's strategy.
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