Support NeoGAF

[cartoon_soldier]

@ppppolls: Obama down 6 nationally, 6 in MT, 5 in NV, 5 in WI, 4 in MA, 2 in VA compared to previous polls

That National number is just scary.

 

[Loudninja]

Awesome.

 

[HylianTom]

thankfully, NH should get called almost immediately

That would get us to at the very least a House of Representatives/Senate --> President Romney/Vice President Biden scenario.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Remember, this is basically where things were before 47%. Here's the thing: let's say that the swing states really are 50/50. Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, Wisconsin, Iowa, New Hampshire. 104 electoral votes.

Obama still has a 50 vote lead in non-swing states. So if he wins half of those 104 votes? He wins. If he wins any four states not including New Hampshire? He's at minimum 268. He doesn't have to win them all. Romney has to pick up an awful lot of them.

Yeah.

If he wins Wisconsin and Ohio (both states he's heavily favored in), he only needs to win one more swing state that's not New Hampshire. Iowa or Nevada would suffice.

If he wins Florida he only needs one more swing state.

There's also the time-tested Kerry strategy, winning Colorado, Nevada, and Iowa in addition to the other Kerry states. (New Mexico is safe Obama let's not kid ourselves)

Virginia plus Nevada or Iowa would also give him a victory.

Romney needs to win Ohio, North Carolina, Florida, and Virginia for sure AND another swing state on top of that.

There's been polls this week of all of those states...

Wisconsin
Ohio
Iowa

Let's put it this way, Ras has him up 1-2 pts in all of them.

This seems to be his safest strategy. Romney has failed to connect with the Midwest.

 

[Raine]

That National number is just scary.

Yeah I'm pretty sure they're talking about the national poll they already released.

 

[B-Dubs]

So good. Don't let us down Biden, crack open a cold one before you go out there tonight.

 

[StopMakingSense]

That National number is just scary.

That's the delta, not the actual head-to-head difference, i think.

 

[eBay Huckster]

Stephanie Cutter on CNN right now talking about the administration's "mixed messages" regarding the Libya attacks. Anchor just brought up Vile Rat's mother's comments on AC360

 

[Averon]

I'm seeing the "leaning Obama" map looking like Kerry (minus New Hampshire) plus Ohio plus New Hampshire. This gets Obama to 265EVs. If Obama wins any one of CO/IA/NV/VA/NC/FL, it's over.

Another thing that could make me nervous? Imagine on Election Night the map being called like this, with IA/VA/FL/NC/NH being called for Romney, with the election coming-down to the two Mountain Time Zone states - CO and NV. That'd give us all a good scare.

Early voting in Iowa has be great for Dems so far. I'm finding it harder and harder to believe Obama won't take Iowa. Obama will enjoy Harry Reid's ground game and democratic machine working for him in Nevada. I think Obama takes VA due to superior ground operations. CO and FL, I think, are true toss-ups that can go either way. I think NC is a lost cause, however.

 

[Brinbe]

I'm seeing the "leaning Obama" map looking like Kerry (minus New Hampshire) plus Ohio plus New Hampshire. This gets Obama to 265EVs. If Obama wins any one of CO/IA/NV/VA/NC/FL, it's over.

Another thing that could make me nervous? Imagine on Election Night the map being called like this, with IA/VA/FL/NC/NH being called for Romney, with the election coming-down to the two Mountain Time Zone states - CO and NV. That'd give us all a good scare.

He's not losing Iowa.

 

[RDreamer]

This needs to be a political ad. A 9 minute political ad

Seriously, just use some of that billion dollars he has to pay comedy central and play this segment on every national channel possible.

 

[The Chosen One]

But Paul is a strong debater and very good at defending bullshit. I expect Biden to be beaten and for polls to reflect it. He won't be utterly embarrassed like Obama last week, at least...but I think he'll fuck up with a gaffe that defines the debate

I can't recall Biden making a significant gaffe in any debate the last decade or so. In interviews or on the campaign trail sure, but in debates he's always been extremely sharp. He doesn't go off on emotional tangents in debates. This whole Biden Gaffe meme will probably play into his favor because everyone is expecting him to make some huge unforced error or mistake. In the dozens of debates in the Dem presidential primaries in '08, Biden was the strongest and most consistent debater even while Hillary and Biden had their ups and downs.

I doubt Biden will "destroy" Ryan like some liberals are expecting. But I see him having a strong debate performance, which should give him the slight victory among independents and the pundit class. Ryan may be a good debater as well but he has to run away and massage too many of his positions, so he has a higher hill to climb. I think the big challenge for Biden is simply not letting Ryan get away with outright lies unchallenged. The biggest sin Obama committed last week was allowing Romney's many flip-flops and falsehoods seem plausible by not really contesting any of them. Most viewers don't know what's true or not. They just go by how looks more confident spouting out their bullshit and what gets disputed by the other candidate.

 

[Black Republican]

all he needs to do is just lay back and let ryan self implode!

 

[HylianTom]

Early voting in Iowa has be great for Dems so far. I'm finding it harder and harder to believe Obama won't take Iowa. Obama will enjoy Harry Reid's ground game and democratic machine working for him in Nevada. I think Obama takes VA due to superior ground operations. CO and FL, I think, are true toss-up that can go either way. I think NC is a lost cause, however.

You and I are of one mind on every single swing state.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Rasmussen has Warren up in MA, 49-47.

Show's over, folks.

 

[Crisco]

Seriously people, John Fucking (that's what the F stands for) Kerry won Wisconsin. There is no way Obama loses it unless a video gets leaked with Obama calling Aaron Rodgers a sissy.

 

[The Lamonster]

Anyone see the Onion's Ryan shop today?

NSFW http://www.theonion.com/articles/naked-tiedup-paul-ryan-tells-staff-he-cant-prepare,29872/

 

[-PXG-]

Pretty telling that Obama can still hold Ohio and couple of swing states despite a national bump for Romney. This is 2004 all over again.

Seriously. It IS 2004 all over again. More and more people are starting to see it.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Seriously. It IS 2004 all over again. More and more people are starting to see it.

I don't want to compare it to 2004. That just makes me think of liberal disappointment.

 

[TacticalFox88]

Seriously. It IS 2004 all over again. More and more people are starting to see it.

2004 all over again? lolno.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

I don't want to compare it to 2004. That just makes me think of liberal disappointment.

Only thing missing is Zogby polls.

 

[Averon]

Seriously. It IS 2004 all over again. More and more people are starting to see it.

Yes. The parallels to 2004 has been incredible so far.

An incumbent who's liked but vulnerable
The challenger who's a rich north easterner
The first debate where the incumbent had a horrible debate performance and the challenger made a comeback

 

[HylianTom]

Yes. The parallels to 2004 has been incredible so far.

An incumbent who's liked but vulnerable
The challenger who's a rich north easterner
The first debate where the incumbent had a horrible debate performance and the challenger made a comeback

Don't forget the accusations of cheating in Ohio leveled by the losing side!

 

[Aaron Strife]

Only thing missing is Zogby polls.

Kerry's up in Tennessee, guys!

 

[GhaleonEB]

Yes. The parallels to 2004 has been incredible so far.

An incumbent who's liked but vulnerable
The challenger who's a rich north easterner
The first debate where the incumbent had a horrible debate performance and the challenger made a comeback

I look forward to the veep debate - while likely not consequental - going off-script. Lieberman and Cheney basically were best buds at their debate. Biden and Ryan will be at each other's throats.

 

[Loudninja]

Ah hell Zobgy?!?!?

Someone already posted ARG crappy polls.

 

[TacticalFox88]

I look forward to the veep debate - while likely not consequental - going off-script. Lieberman and Cheney basically were best buds at their debate. Biden and Ryan will be at each other's throats.

Considering that Biden likely despises Romney and Ryan, this comes as no surprise.

 

[HylianTom]

A timely article about Romney's Battleground State Problem.

Are there reasonable explanations for the gap between national and state polls? Nate Silver has covered a few explanations, but here's a more speculative possibility--and it is just a possibility. Simply put: campaigns might matter. There hasn't been a campaign where the battleground states have endured so many advertisements for so long before the rest of the country even began to tune in. This was also a campaign where the conventional wisdom has long held that attacks on Romney did alot of damage, especially in Ohio. While most of the country tuned in and saw Romney unadulterated by months of advertisements, voters in the battleground states might have more entrenched and cynical views of the Republican nominee. Relatedly, there might just be fewer undecided or weak supporters in the battleground states than there are nationally, in part because they've been thinking about this longer. It's even possible that Democrats might be more enthusiastic and energized in the battleground states than they are nationally, which might leave them better positioned in likely voter models.

http://www.tnr.com/blog/electionate/108459/romneys-battleground-state-problem

 

[Captain Pants]

For my fellow chicken littles, this should be a bit reassuring.
Obama may be over-performing in battleground states.

Indeed, despite all the headlines you’re seeing this morning, the real story in today’s NBC/WSJ and NYT/CBS swing state polls is how little movement there has been in key battlegrounds, not how much. Today’s NBC/WSJ polls found that Obama leads in Ohio by 51-45, after leading by 51-43 before the debate. Obama leads in Florida by 48-47, after leading by 47-46 before the debate. Obviously, neither of those are big shifts. (The biggest movement came in Virginia, where Romney now leads by 48-47 after a shift of three points.)

Meanwhile, the NYT/CBS polls show Obama leading in Virginia by 51-46, after leading 50-46 before the debate. And Obama is leading in Wisconsin by 50-47, after leading 51-45 before the debate. Even in Colorado, where Romney now leads by 48-47, the shift was all of two points, from 47-48 before the debates.

 

[Aaron Strife]

For my fellow chicken littles, this should be a bit reassuring.
Obama may be over-performing in battleground states.

I'm not terribly surprised. The swing state campaign has been markedly different from the national campaign. Voters in Ohio, Virginia, Florida etc. must know the candidates inside and out by now. Most of those states also have early voting which already bakes in Obama's lead.

Romney's lead nationally is still troublesome, but hopefully it subsides or Obama picks up the momentum again.

 

[HylianTom]

For my fellow chicken littles, this should be a bit reassuring.
Obama may be over-performing in battleground states.

My favorite comment from below the article:

Hint: the Chicago based Obama corruption machine put pressure on the Constitutional Congress.

 

[Dude Abides]

I hope Biden has a line as good as "noun, verb, and 9/11" cooked up. Ryan really needs to be taken down a peg.

 

[Gray Man]

I wish Paul Ryan was as unlikable as Mitt Romney, I think the guy is a lot better at pulling off lies, and sounding smart...

It doesn't help that Mr. Biden is a Gaffe machine lol.

 

[CygnusXS]

My favorite comment from below the article:

If they tried just a little harder, they could have done something special with alliteration.

 

[Atlagev]

I'm not terribly surprised. The swing state campaign has been markedly different from the national campaign. Voters in Ohio, Virginia, Florida etc. must know the candidates inside and out by now. Most of those states also have early voting which already bakes in Obama's lead.

Romney's lead nationally is still troublesome, but hopefully it subsides or Obama picks up the momentum again.

I guess the big question is where is Romney is picking up his national lead from? It sure isn't in the Midwest, the Northeast, or the Left Coast.

 

[The Lamonster]

I wish Paul Ryan was as unlikable as Mitt Romney, I think the guy is a lot better at pulling off lies, and sounding smart...

It doesn't help that Mr. Biden is a Gaffe machine lol.

I think most people feel the opposite - that Romney is more likable (especially after the debate). We don't yet know if Ryan is going to lie his ass off as Romney did, but we DO know that Ryan is a stiff while Biden can be very charming.

And Biden performed wonderfully in his last VP debate. It's his off-the-cuff remarks that get him in trouble, not his debates.

 

[titiklabingapat]

Most of Romney's national uptick seem to be from a more energized GOP base(especially red states) and the Dems losing some morale(especially in blue states, as evidenced with Obama losing some steam in the recent blue state polls). I was concerned about the downticket races being dragged by Obama's lackluster performance, but the polls show that they are holding steady. I'm quite confident that the Dems will come back home to roost as election day nears, especially if Obama/Biden throws a more aggressive punch in the next few debates.

 

[Effect]

I wish Paul Ryan was as unlikable as Mitt Romney, I think the guy is a lot better at pulling off lies, and sounding smart...

It doesn't help that Mr. Biden is a Gaffe machine lol.

When Ryan speaks the desire to punch him just builds and builds. The way he looks and sounds just annoys me. This was even before he was picked for VP. I can at least say Romney has never bothered me like that.

 

[Dude Abides]

Pic from Paul Ryan's Time photoshoot:

Yeah.

 

[Measley]

I'm not terribly surprised. The swing state campaign has been markedly different from the national campaign. Voters in Ohio, Virginia, Florida etc. must know the candidates inside and out by now. Most of those states also have early voting which already bakes in Obama's lead.

Romney's lead nationally is still troublesome, but hopefully it subsides or Obama picks up the momentum again.

I can attest to Obama's strong ground game here in Ohio. My wife and I have gotten mail nearly every week making sure we are registered, and telling us where to vote. We've even gotten phone calls from Obama staffers reminding us of our deadlines and our closest polling places. Even got some Obama bumper stickers and yard signs from the registration event this passed Tuesday.

My brother in law supports Romney, and is a registered Republican and has gotten nothing.

 

[eBay Huckster]

I guess the big question is where is Romney is picking up his national lead from? It sure isn't in the Midwest, the Northeast, or the Left Coast.

i don't know national crosstabs beyond the pew poll that everyone here was freaking out about, but a decent bit of this uptick actually seems to be coming from the south

 

[fallagin]

Pic from Paul Ryan's Time photoshoot:

Yeah.

Wow, he looks like more of a douchebag than usual.

 

[dschalter]

I guess the big question is where is Romney is picking up his national lead from? It sure isn't in the Midwest, the Northeast, or the Left Coast.

It's coming from most parts of the country.

 

[Effect]

That's my biggest issue with national polling. Where are people being polled with the sample sizes they are using? With state polls you get a much clearer picture of things. Internals are very important for this reason.

 

[The Lamonster]

What the fuck is he doing in that photo and what's up with the red cap? Jesus christ.

 

[RustyNails]

Darrell Issa is such a partisan fuck.

1. Political witchhunt against Atty Holder with no proof of any wrongdoing from his office
2. Political withchunt against State Dept before they even finished their investigation
3. Now an "investigation" into BLS.
4. Probably an investigation into members of congress who watch PBS
5. Investigation about investigation

 

[StopMakingSense]

Speaking of battleground states, update from OFA:

• Democrats’ party registration leads Republicans’ in nearly every battleground state.
• Democrats have out-registered Republicans in every battleground state for the past three months.
• Latino registration has greatly exceeded registration among non-Latino whites, and Latinos’
registration preferences have increasingly favored Democrats since 2008.
• Most new registrants are younger than 30. In fact, more than four in five new registrants are women, young people and minorities.

https://secure.assets.bostatic.com/pdfs/Voter_Reg_and_Early_Voting_FINAL.pdf

 

[XenodudeX]

Speaking of battleground states, update from OFA:



https://secure.assets.bostatic.com/pdfs/Voter_Reg_and_Early_Voting_FINAL.pdf

Dat ground game. Amazing.

 

[Hobbestetrician]

Pic from Paul Ryan's Time photoshoot:

Yeah.

Doesn't quite lend itself to the 'Chill the fuck out. I got this' meme in any serious way like that Biden picture. What a total douche. I gotta think the photographer was laughing quite hysterically internally while snapping that shot.

I smell a caption contest!

 

[TiVo]

all he needs to do is just lay back and let ryan self implode!

No f'ing way. That was Obama's strategy.