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PoliGAF 2013 |OT1| Never mind, Wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

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http://www.nypost.com/p/pagesix/soledad_headed_out_at_cnn_NGuo73hdisQIzTlt8EkkYM

High-profile morning anchor Soledad O’Brien is on her way out at CNN as new boss Jeff Zucker moves Erin Burnett into her morning slot, Page Six has exclusively learned.

We’re told award-winning journalist O’Brien has indicated she is ready to leave after she was initially promised a plum prime-time slot, but that role has so far failed to materialize.

A source tells us: “The deal to move Erin to the morning alongside Chris Cuomo is basically done. Soledad had been told she’d get a prime-time slot, but that hasn’t yet happened, and now she is telling friends she is likely to leave.”
 

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
Olsen1.jpg


Posted by Montana County GOP chairwoman.
 
"Family Values" . . yada yada yada . . .
Former New Mexico Senator Pete Domenici revealed today that he fathered a son in an extramarital affair with another senator's daughter more than 30 years ago and has kept the secret since then, only telling his own family in the last "several months."

In a statement to the Albuquerque Journal, the 80-year-old Republican, who represented New Mexico for more than 30 years, said the mother of his son "made me pledge that we would never reveal that parenthood and I have tried to honor that pledge and so has she."

Domenici wrote that he was worried about the privacy of his son, a 34-year-old Nevada lawyer named Adam Laxalt, as well as the potential impact on Laxalt's mother, Michelle Laxalt, 58. Domenici has eight other children with his wife Nancy.
http://news.yahoo.com/former-senato...rs-daughter-200530146--abc-news-politics.html

gty_pete_domenici_mi_130220_wmain.jpg
 

Gruco

Banned
In amongst his Senate predictions for 2014, Nate Silver makes a point I hadn't considered:



http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/02/20/can-republicans-win-the-senate-in-2014/

The Republican senators in blue states up for reelection in 2016 are Mark Kirk (IL), Rob Portman (OH), Pat Toomey (PA), Ron Johnson (WI), Kelly Ayotte (NH), Chuck Grassley (IA), and of course Marco Rubio (FL). And of course we'll also have John McCain and Rand Paul to watch. It's all up to Hillary now!

Four straight Senate cycles with extreme results. Pretty amazing how leveraged everything has been for so long. I kind of doubt we'll see anything like this again for a while. But yeah, this was in the back of my mind when looking at the 2012 map. Even a couple tea party nudges in 2014 could leave the democrats incredibly well positioned. Another reason the Rove/Tea Party wars and the town hall immigration push back will be fun to watch.
 
Another Austerity Success!!!

SOFIA (Reuters) - Bulgaria's government resigned on Wednesday after mass protests against high power prices and falling living standards, joining a long list of European administrations felled by austerity during four years of debt crisis.

Prime Minister Boiko Borisov, an ex-bodyguard who took power in 2009 on pledges to root out graft and raise incomes in the European Union's poorest member, faces a tough task of propping up eroding support ahead of an expected early election.

Wage and pension freezes and tax hikes have bitten deep in a country where earnings are less than half the EU average and tens of thousands of Bulgarians have rallied in protests that have turned violent, chanting "Mafia" and "Resign".

Moves by Borisov on Tuesday to blame foreign utility companies for the rise in the cost of heating homes was to no avail and an eleventh day of marches saw 15 people hospitalized and 25 arrested in clashes with police.

"My decision to resign will not be changed under any circumstances. I do not build roads so that blood is shed on them," said Borisov, who began his career guarding the Black Sea state's communist dictator Todor Zhivkov.

A karate black belt, Borisov has cultivated a Putin-like "can-do" image since he entered politics as Sofia mayor in 2005 and would connect with voters by showing up on the capital's rutted streets to oversee the repair of pot-holes.

But critics say he has often skirted due process, sometimes to the benefit of those close to him, and his swift policy U-turns have wounded the public's trust.

The spark for the protests was high electricity bills, after the government raised prices by 13 percent last July. But it quickly spilled over into wider frustration with Borisov and political elites with perceived links to shadowy businesses.

"He made my day," said student Borislav Hadzhiev in central Sofia, commenting on Borisov's resignation. "The truth is that we're living in an extremely poor country."

POLLS, PRICES

The prime minister's final desperate moves on Tuesday included cutting power prices and risking a diplomatic row with the Czech Republic by punishing companies including CEZ, moves which conflicted with EU norms on protection of investors and due process.
CEZ officials were hopeful on Wednesday that it would be able to avoid losing its distribution license after all and officials from the Bulgarian regulator said the company would not be punished if it dealt with breaches of procedure.

But shares in what is central Europe's largest publicly-listed company fell another 1 percent on Wednesday.

If pushed through, the fines for CEZ and two other foreign-owned firms will not encourage other investors in Bulgaria, who already have to navigate complicated bureaucracy and widespread corruption and organized crime to take advantage of Bulgaria's 10-percent flat tax rate.

Financial markets reacted negatively to the turbulence on Wednesday. The cost of insuring Bulgaria's debt rose to a three-month high and debt yields rose some 15 basis points, though the country's low deficit of 0.5 percent of gross domestic product means there is little risk to the lev currency's peg against the euro.

Borisov's interior minister indicated that elections originally planned for July would probably be pulled forward by saying that his rightist GERB party would not take part in talks to form a new government.

MILLIONS GONE

GERB's woes have echoes in another ex-communist EU member, Slovenia, where demonstrators have taken to the streets and added pressure to a crumbling conservative government.

A small crowd gathered in support of Borisov outside Sofia's parliament, which is expected to approve his resignation on Thursday, while bigger demonstrations against the premier were expected in the evening.

Unemployment in the country of 7.3 million is far from the highs hit in the decade after the end of communism but remains at 11.9 percent. Average salaries are stuck at around 800 levs ($550) a month and millions have emigrated, leaving swathes of the country depopulated and little hope for those who remain.

GERB's popularity has held up well and it still led in the latest polls before protests grew in size last weekend, but analysts say the opposition Socialists should draw strength from the demonstrations.

The leftists, successors to Bulgaria's communist party, have proposed tax cuts and wage hikes and are likely to raise questions about public finances if elected.
 
In amongst his Senate predictions for 2014, Nate Silver makes a point I hadn't considered:



http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/02/20/can-republicans-win-the-senate-in-2014/

The Republican senators in blue states up for reelection in 2016 are Mark Kirk (IL), Rob Portman (OH), Pat Toomey (PA), Ron Johnson (WI), Kelly Ayotte (NH), Chuck Grassley (IA), and of course Marco Rubio (FL). And of course we'll also have John McCain and Rand Paul to watch. It's all up to Hillary now!

Missouri is almost certainly up for play in 2016, especially if the Governor or Attorney General run - they won by 12 and 15 points respectively in 2012. Though, my hope is that Jay Nixon challenges Roy Blunt and AG Chris Koster takes over as Governor.

If either of those two individuals run - and Hillary is on the top of the ticket - I'd almost say that Missouri leans blue in 2016.
 

Chichikov

Member
Financial markets reacted negatively to the turbulence on Wednesday. The cost of insuring Bulgaria's debt rose to a three-month high and debt yields rose some 15 basis points, though the country's low deficit of 0.5 percent of gross domestic product means there is little risk to the lev currency's peg against the euro.
The bonds vigilantes fails the Austrians once again, the scoundrels!
 
Has the GOP even mentioned Europe's failed austerity? Seems like they completely ignore it to me, which is not all that surprising

Well, their message is generally that we shouldn't become like Europe and be a welfare state so I doubt they would praise any country in Europe (except maybe the UK or Germany), so their message is somewhat correct!
 

Gotchaye

Member
Has the GOP even mentioned Europe's failed austerity? Seems like they completely ignore it to me, which is not all that surprising

Sometimes they get asked point blank. Then the response is that the problem is the tax increases that were part of the austerity packages.

Mostly they just continue to talk about Europe spending too much and having huge debt problems and how that proves the need for austerity before we're also forced into austerity like Greece.
 

Chichikov

Member
What is the GOP response to these failed attempts at austerity?
You need to remember that Austrians don't believe in empiricism (this neither a joke or hyperbole by the way), evidence cannot disprove their theories, by (their fucking stupid) definition.
 
What is the GOP response to these failed attempts at austerity?

Estonia and Latvia.

Actually I need to look into these, because apparently austerity did work there? I remember one economist hammering Krugman with some quotes from Estonia's prime minister, or someone high up like that. I'm not sure why austerity was an apparent success there and a failure elsewhere. Those countries being tiny might be part of it.
 

Amir0x

Banned
Obama considers weighing in on gay marriage case

AP said:
The Obama administration is quietly considering urging the Supreme Court to overturn California's ban on gay marriage, a step that would mark a political victory for advocates of same-sex unions and a deepening commitment by President Barack Obama to rights for gay couples.

Obama raised expectations among opponents of the Proposition 8 ban when he declared in last month's inaugural address that gays and lesbians must be "treated like anyone else under the law." The administration has until Feb. 28 to intervene in the case by filing a "friend of the court" brief.

The Proposition 8 ballot initiative was approved by California voters in 2008 and overturned a state Supreme Court decision allowing gay marriage. Twenty-nine other states have constitutional amendments banning gay marriage, while nine states and Washington, D.C., recognize same-sex marriage.

An administration brief alone is unlikely to sway the Justices but the federal government's opinion does carry weight with the court.

A final decision on whether to file a brief has not been made, a senior administration official said. Solicitor General Donald Verrilli is consulting with the White House on the matter, said the official, speaking only on condition of anonymity because the official was not authorized to address the private deliberations publicly.

More at link.

Do it Obama. Dooooo ittt
 
Estonia and Latvia.

Actually I need to look into these, because apparently austerity did work there? I remember one economist hammering Krugman with some quotes from Estonia's prime minister, or someone high up like that. I'm not sure why austerity was an apparent success there and a failure elsewhere. Those countries being tiny might be part of it.

Both countries are terrible examples. Huge bailouts from ECB kept then afloat early and if you look their improvement came after they reversed austerity.

Furthermore some 10% of their population, mostly youth, emigrated.

Austerity failed there and failed much worse than in the UK.

I dare anyone to use Latvia and Estonia as beacons of austerity.
 

Konka

Banned
Does it strengthen the Federal Exchange because it is offered over like what 26 states? Seems like a good place to start growing government options.
 
The best part of the austerity argument is that the right refuses to believe that it was ever implemented because the countries keep having to spend more. They act like they know business and economics yet they don't understand the simple fact that when you cut supply you often lose a lot of profit so much so that you end up spending more than you originally would have. Its bizarre, its sort of like how people claim that the Soviet Union wasn't really Communist because it didn't work as intended.
 
The sequester alone should be proof positive that austerity won't work. Everyone acknowledges it would gut the economy, perhaps throw us into recession.
 
You need to remember that Austrians don't believe in empiricism (this neither a joke or hyperbole by the way), evidence cannot disprove their theories, by (their fucking stupid) definition.

Yeah, the first time I heard that I assumed the person was joking. Nope.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austrian_School#Methodology_2

I know I say it over and over and over . . . but the lack of empiricism and science is what makes conservative ideology just nonsensical to me. It is faith-based economics to go along with their faith-based science and faith-based social policy.
 

Chichikov

Member
The sequester alone should be proof positive that austerity won't work. Everyone acknowledges it would gut the economy, perhaps throw us into recession.
Remember what Bush, the most supply side president we ever had, said when the economy seemed to be slowing down?
Go out and shop.
Liberals were freaking out and shouting "OMG consumerism" but they missed the bigger point - when push came to shove, even W and his cronies embraced Keynesianism, if they truly believed in what Hayek said (as opposed to using him as excuse to cut our social safety net) they would've encourage Americans to save.
 
Both countries are terrible examples. Huge bailouts from ECB kept then afloat early and if you look their improvement came after they reversed austerity.

Furthermore some 10% of their population, mostly youth, emigrated.

Austerity failed there and failed much worse than in the UK.

I dare anyone to use Latvia and Estonia as beacons of austerity.

Interesting. I've only read a few opinion pieces on this, and they were all from the right (Forbes, WSJ, etc). I'll need to go look at some actual data.
 

Acheron

Banned
Why is there a belief Hillary Clinton is the "killer app" of the Dem bench?

1) Lost to Obama in the first place
2) Potentially weaker black/youth turnout
3) Republican leaners may not hate her now because she's been out of elected politics, but they did before and they can again

The only things I can hold onto are she's a woman, Bill Clinton and because she's white hillbillies won't hate her so much.

Formidable? Absolutely. But I don't see anything Biden or Schweitzer couldn't do better.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Why is there a belief Hillary Clinton is the "killer app" of the Dem bench?

1) Lost to Obama in the first place
2) Potentially weaker black/youth turnout
3) Republican leaners may not hate her now because she's been out of elected politics, but they did before and they can again

The only things I can hold onto are she's a woman, Bill Clinton and because she's white hillbillies won't hate her so much.

Formidable? Absolutely. But I don't see anything Biden or Schweitzer couldn't do better.

She's become more popular in recent years and Obama will definitely be campaigning for her. The youth turnout won't be affected since she'd be the first woman president, Obama beat her there because he comes off as cooler. The hardcore republicans will hate her no matter what. There's a reason the GOP tried to pin Benghazi on her before she left the State Department.
 

Acheron

Banned
She's become more popular in recent years and Obama will definitely be campaigning for her. The youth turnout won't be affected since she'd be the first woman president, Obama beat her there because he comes off as cooler. The hardcore republicans will hate her no matter what. There's a reason the GOP tried to pin Benghazi on her before she left the State Department.

But my third point is that much of that bump is illusory. Her net positive rating has increased because she isn't running. Once she's the one, the mud will drag her down to '08 levels.

Good economy or Obama campaigning (potentially Bill) would be there for any Dem.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
But my third point is that much of that bump is illusory. Her net positive rating has increased because she isn't running. Once she's the one, the mud will drag her down to '08 levels.

Good economy or Obama campaigning (potentially Bill) would be there for any Dem.

I think you are assuming that the GOP will be able to field a candidate who was as strong a campaigner as Obama. Obama's campaign was the sort you see once in a generation, it was just legendary. His ground game alone could have gotten a gerbil elected to the House. That's not even considering the man himself. The entire reason he beat Hillary originally was that he was straight up a better campaigner. Hillary's campaign was strong, don't get me wrong, but it was up against a GOAT.

The GOP has no one on Obama's level, nobody does.
 
Yeah, the first time I heard that I assumed the person was joking. Nope.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austrian_School#Methodology_2

I know I say it over and over and over . . . but the lack of empiricism and science is what makes conservative ideology just nonsensical to me. It is faith-based economics to go along with their faith-based science and faith-based social policy.

This blog gives a great rundown on Praxeology nonsese
http://socialdemocracy21stcentury.blogspot.com/2010/10/mises-praxeology-critique.html
 

Gotchaye

Member
Why is there a belief Hillary Clinton is the "killer app" of the Dem bench?

1) Lost to Obama in the first place
2) Potentially weaker black/youth turnout
3) Republican leaners may not hate her now because she's been out of elected politics, but they did before and they can again

The only things I can hold onto are she's a woman, Bill Clinton and because she's white hillbillies won't hate her so much.

Formidable? Absolutely. But I don't see anything Biden or Schweitzer couldn't do better.

Adding to what B-Dubs said, she's also tested. Given what we know, several Democrats could potentially do very well in 2016, but there's a lot less we don't know about Hillary. What could the Republicans plausibly bring to bear that wouldn't be received as old news? Benghazi is just about it.

Also, even if Bill is willing to campaign for any candidate, he's obviously going to be trying a lot harder if it's Hillary. And he's pretty much universally loved right now too. People remember his presidency as a pretty good one; I think it's clear that lots of voters would see a vote for Hillary Clinton as president as at least partly as just a vote for a third Clinton term. She gets a lot of the advantages of incumbency even as a first-time candidate.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Adding to what B-Dubs said, she's also tested. Given what we know, several Democrats could potentially do very well in 2016, but there's a lot less we don't know about Hillary. What could the Republicans plausibly bring to bear that wouldn't be received as old news? Benghazi is just about it.

Also, even if Bill is willing to campaign for any candidate, he's obviously going to be trying a lot harder if it's Hillary. And he's pretty much universally loved right now too. People remember his presidency as a pretty good one; I think it's clear that lots of voters would see a vote for Hillary Clinton as president as at least partly as just a vote for a third Clinton term. She gets a lot of the advantages of incumbency even as a first-time candidate.

There's also the fact that she will be more experienced than anyone else running, on either side. That and there's the whole, "lets make history, again" angle. People love feeling like they're a part of history. If she does run it's really starting to look like a perfect storm, especially once the economy starts getting into gear.
 

RDreamer

Member
Speaking of blogs, is deadheatpolitics.com officially dead? Its been a week and a half since the last update.

I hope not. I enjoy reading what everyone else here writes. My life just got kind of crazy so I've been a bit unable to focus and put out anything. 2 of my jobs have kind of exploded into something bigger quicker than I had anticipated. And on top of those I still have my part time one that looks like it actually isn't ending when I thought it would (oh well, more moneys).

So, yeah, now I still have time for reading some things, but a bit less for really sitting down and hammering something out. I had hoped we'd have enough people that this wouldn't be a problem. Seems like everyone quit putting things up before I even did, too. I've got most of the last bunch of posts.
 

Gotchaye

Member
More on Hillary - Does anyone doubt that she'd have done better in the 2008 general than Obama? Clearly a lot of 2008 was just buyer's remorse over W. No one symbolized better than Hillary the difference between the Bush and Clinton presidencies. And Bush hasn't been rehabilitated. If Bill Clinton goes out there and says that Republican X is saying all the same things Republicans said back then, all the things that led to George W Bush and Dick Cheney and the financial crisis, what is Republican X going to say? That at least he's not a socialist like the Democrat? If that Democrat is Hillary the attack just isn't plausible. It can literally be laughed off. No one is better placed to say that all the Democrats want to do is to go back to the policies that we had under Bill Clinton.

Edit: To be clear, I don't think that framing is accurate. I think the Democrats really are to the left of where they were in the 90s, and I also don't think that Bill Clinton deserves all that much credit for the economy. He got taxes raised, and that's great, but he's not a liberal hero. But this framing is so politically bulletproof that I don't see how it doesn't happen.
 
I think you are assuming that the GOP will be able to field a candidate who was as strong a campaigner as Obama. Obama's campaign was the sort you see once in a generation, it was just legendary. His ground game alone could have gotten a gerbil elected to the House. That's not even considering the man himself. The entire reason he beat Hillary originally was that he was straight up a better campaigner. Hillary's campaign was strong, don't get me wrong, but it was up against a GOAT.

The GOP has no one on Obama's level, nobody does.

Sorry, but if you let Mark Penn run your campaign you deserve to lose.
 
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