You're probably right about house republicans overall, but eventually Boehner WILL pull the plug on this. Every poll shows people don't want a shutdown, especially if it's over Obamacare. After a week it'll be pretty clear to most people that the GOP overstretched, and Boehner will have to give up. Will republicans pass a clean CR after that? Probably not. But all Boehner needs is 20 republicans to get it passed. He's broken the Hassert rule before, that's not the issue. But he needed to put up a fight before breaking it this time.
I will say this though: if polls were to turn against Obama and he was forced to cave, I think the argument could be made that he sowed the seeds for this failure with his horrible handling of 2013. From taking needless, big losses on guns to the NSA fallout, which the White House believes has harmed his trust numbers.
It is pretty disturbing if, best case scenario, all but ~20 GOPers will refuse to join Pelosi to prevent another recession. That is way, way too close for comfort moving forward with the debt ceiling in the future and is not sustainable. No one knows what the future holds for House GOP leadership, but the 2010 wave makes Boehner look like a moderate (how crazy is that). If we are to believe that the House stays red until 2020, we're stuck in the midst of a nightmare peddled by the minority party.
And that's what I mean by forced to cave. The GOP throws a hissy fit, the Government shuts down, people realize their financial security is at serious risk in an already lackluster economy, the GOP doesn't budge
no matter what for weeks. People get scared and turn their heads while the ideological terrorist bloc of the GOP rips Obama's credibility and record to shreds and make him wish he lost last year. Americans turn back around and just want to see this end so another recession isn't triggered, realize PPACA is dust,, and go about their lives. Obama sees that people are starting to trust the GOP more and is left with no choice but to seriously allow for default or have PPACA delayed/repealed. I'm not just DIablosing. The is the GOP's grand opportunity to wreck the economy under Obama's watch and keeping his biggest legislative accomplishment from functioning properly, crippling the healthcare industry... while simultaneously crippling the economy as well.
Obamacare is popular but not by a margin that is necessarily worth bragging about. In the middle of a shutdown those numbers could move fast.
The difference between now and 1996:
-Bob Dole had a Presidential campaign to worry about, optics and all that jazz.
-The economy was MUCH better than it is today, thus people were more confident and not worried about what we've been through in present day over the past five years.
-The House GOP, while still filled with plenty of loons at the time, were not nearly as tenacious in holding the country hostage like this.
-Bill Clinton was much more popular at this point in time, iirc.
All of this factors into how a shutdown this time around can be fundamentally different.
It's totally possible.
I kept making...sexually questionable jokes in the hip hop thread.
Alrighty.