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PoliGAF 2013 |OT2| Worth 77% of OT1

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Maledict

Member
I agree, the senate actually is a fairly decent representation of the states they are elected from. The house is gerrymandered and looks like the extreme fringes of whatever party was in control of the legislatures across the nation(2010-->mostly republican) which has lead to a more radical group in charge after the 2012 election causing not of their moderates to lose primaries to radicals.



Edit. The US Senate was created to protect the rights of the minority(meaning smaller states and not majority parties). This leads to better compromises and better legislation. Majority take all systems largely mess up big time as it's winner-takes-all. (The house is majority rule, without the senate our country would be fucked up). Obviously I don't like how the senate used to be picked by the state legislatures, and love the idea of direct democracy.

The thing is that is patently not the truth elsewhere in the world. There are plenty of winner takes all governments that don't have the issues the states does - indeed, I cannot think of a major western democracy that compares. Even Italy isn't this freaking nuts and their bringing down a government because a criminal has to serve a years community service. Are you saying the states is so fundamentally insane and broken that unlike every other western country it needs this absurd lock on the majority party?

Winner takes all pushes parties to the centre because the majority of voters don't actually *want* extremist policies.

Also, the senate is so ridiculously, absurdly unbalanced in terms of how its voting works its silly. No-one on the planet can think it rational that Wyoming and North Dakota get the same power to stop legislation as California and New York. That's not states rights, its a farcical unbalancing of voting that disenfranchises literally millions of people.
 

bonercop

Member
People say labeling the Tea Party "political terrorists" is going too far, but I can't help but think many Repubs would be doing exactly this if they were on the other side.

Considering the average American voter, and the propensity of the public to latch on to soundbites, a few low ranking Democrats and pundits calling them this way in the media would have a significant effect, I believe.

eh, it bothers me because it's another example of the label of "terrorist" being applied way too broadly. When it starts being acceptable to use "terrorist" that broadly, you get dumb shit like this.
 

Diablos

Member
Boehner's plan right now is to have a short shutdown with the hope that the Tea Party radicals will take note of the pounding the GOP gets and they will cave.

But here's the problem with that strategy. It should never come to that because they should understand that already. But they either don't or they don't care.

The problem with the Tea Party Radicals is they are either not rational actors or they don't care to act rationally.

And if that's the case, there's no guarantee this will end quickly or in a good fashion. You have too many people afraid of caving thanks to years of idiocy and the radicals who just won't cave. So either Boehner breaks away and risks his job to side with the Dems or he's beholden to the irrational fucks.

This is why I said a couple weeks ago I stopped feeling good about this. I know in the end the GOP has to cave because Obama/Dems will not and cannot do so. But I don't know how far the GOP will take this and to what extent they will take it before they are finally brought to their knees. Any other time I'd have believed that the party was "testing the waters" so to speak with the shutdown to gauge reaction and then acquiescence in the face of reality. But reality does not matter to these folks.

Irrational people are unpredictable. They are willing to let themselves die for no good reason. And while normally I'd be okay with this, if this results in a debt limit default (I don't care if Boehner tipped his hand here, Pigeon, he never assumed this at the time) or a very long shutdown, people are going to be hurt in very bad ways.

I am hoping that somehow the calmer elements of the GOP establishment can reign in control sometime this week. It's our only hope.
This is exactly how I feel. I guess you are Diablosing.

But you summed it up better than I did. There's no reason to believe that just because Boehner seems to indicate one thing that it will even play out that way. Cruz has inspired all but a full-blown revolt against him in the House.

A shutdown, short or long, is just bad bad news. I don't think the Tea Party will cave to the public reacting to their tactics. They have clearly demonstrated since 2010 that they don't give a fuck about what the American people think unless they fall in line with their ideology 100%.
 

JCizzle

Member
I just don't see what the GOP will be arguing come Tuesday. The government will be shut down, but the ACA will still be funded and moving along. At that point they just look (even more) like bitter losers.
 

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
I forget if this was an NBC poll or not, but asked on who the public will blame for the shutdown:

39% Republicans
36% Obama


Which is weird, because a solid majority says that they disapprove of shutting down the government to defund Obamacare.

Good jon, American people.
 

Rubenov

Member
eh, it bothers me because it's another example of the label of "terrorist" being applied way too broadly.

That's why you place "Political" before it. Striking terror in the populace (by shutting down the government, defaulting on debts, etc…) sounds like political terrorism.

If anything, it could be an effective label to get the apathetic public to wake up to the tactics of the TEA party.
 
I forget if this was an NBC poll or not, but asked on who the public will blame for the shutdown:

39% Republicans
36% Obama


Which is weird, because a solid majority says that they disapprove of shutting down the government to defund Obamacare.

Good jon, American people.

Dude, don't give Diablos anymore reason to freak out. :(
 

Diablos

Member
c82jLJ5.jpg

Oh for fuck's sake.

Shove it up your ass, Boehner. Break the Hastert rule and stop dicking around.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
I forget if this was an NBC poll or not, but asked on who the public will blame for the shutdown:

39% Republicans
36% Obama


Which is weird, because a solid majority says that they disapprove of shutting down the government to defund Obamacare.

Good jon, American people.

That basically gives Republicans everything they need to start this shutdown.
 

GhaleonEB

Member
I forget if this was an NBC poll or not, but asked on who the public will blame for the shutdown:

39% Republicans
36% Obama


Which is weird, because a solid majority says that they disapprove of shutting down the government to defund Obamacare.

Good jon, American people.

We get the government we deserve, not the one we need.
 

ISOM

Member
I forget if this was an NBC poll or not, but asked on who the public will blame for the shutdown:

39% Republicans
36% Obama


Which is weird, because a solid majority says that they disapprove of shutting down the government to defund Obamacare.

Good jon, American people.

Well it's not like obama is being reelected so it doesn't really matter.
 

bonercop

Member
I forget if this was an NBC poll or not, but asked on who the public will blame for the shutdown:

39% Republicans
36% Obama


Which is weird, because a solid majority says that they disapprove of shutting down the government to defund Obamacare.

Good jon, American people.

diablos vindicated
 
This is exactly how I feel. I guess you are Diablosing.

But you summed it up better than I did. There's no reason to believe that just because Boehner seems to indicate one thing that it will even play out that way. Cruz has inspired all but a full-blown revolt against him in the House.

A shutdown, short or long, is just bad bad news. I don't think the Tea Party will cave to the public reacting to their tactics. They have clearly demonstrated since 2010 that they don't give a fuck about what the American people think unless they fall in line with their ideology 100%.

It's not Diablosing because Obamacare will not be delayed/defunded/delayed/negatively altered.

It's concern for what happens next.
 
@robertcostaNRO

late this afternoon, tea-party Rs are warning folks behind scenes that if Boehner even tries to move a clean-ish CR, there'll be a revolt...

Will be very interesting to see what Boehner does. I'm assuming the House will pass another anti-Obamacare CR tomorrow, but after that one fails...what then?

Strategy wise, should Reid pass a clean CR in the early afternoon, or wait until late Monday to force the House's hand? I'm starting to wonder whether it might make more sense to pass a clean CR early, then wait and see what the House does. They seem to have one more trick up their sleeve (the Vitter amendment). If that fails, I really don't see the point in Boehner holding out.
 
Will be very interesting to see what Boehner does. I'm assuming the House will pass another anti-Obamacare CR tomorrow, but after that one fails...what then?

Strategy wise, should Reid pass a clean CR in the early afternoon, or wait until late Monday to force the House's hand? I'm starting to wonder whether it might make more sense to pass a clean CR early, then wait and see what the House does. They seem to have one more trick up their sleeve (the Vitter amendment). If that fails, I really don't see the point in Boehner holding out.
He should not interrupt them while they are making a mistake. Let them keep sending useless bills to die in the Senate.

The GOP wants a shutdown. Boehner's only way out is to break the Hastert rule. Simple as that.
 

Jooney

Member
c82jLJ5.jpg

Oh for fuck's sake.

Shove it up your ass, Boehner. Break the Hastert rule and stop dicking around.

I forget if this was an NBC poll or not, but asked on who the public will blame for the shutdown:

39% Republicans
36% Obama


Which is weird, because a solid majority says that they disapprove of shutting down the government to defund Obamacare.

Good jon, American people.

There's one thing that I will give it up for the GOP - they are far more brazen than Democrats ever hope to be. They don't follow polls - they move polls.

The #SenateMustAct page is hilarious.
 

ISOM

Member
Except if a shutdown goes on long enough it gives GOPers more leverage as the margins are close enough that people could start to lose faith in the Democrats.

So? At the end of the day the worst option for democrats would be to cave to republicans.
 
This article by John Sides is...well, not that good.
Both sides are wrong. Elections don’t convey policy mandates because most voters don’t vote on policy. Instead, they vote based on longstanding loyalties to one party or the other. As political scientist Gabriel Lenz shows, rather than using policy to choose a candidate, voters more often choose the candidate first, and then mold their policy views to fit those of the candidate they support. Party comes before policy.

But politicians and their allies never learn this lesson. As Lynn Vavreck and I show in our new book on the 2012 election, The Gamble, commentators were as quick to over-interpret this election as they were the 2008 and 2004 elections. (Remember George W. Bush’s “political capital”?) In reality, Vavreck and I demonstrate that in 2012 voters tended to perceive Romney as ideologically closer to them than was Obama. Moreover, with the exception of a few issues like same-sex marriage, public opinion under Obama has largely trended in a conservative direction. Obama appeared to win in spite of ideology and policy, not because of it.​
So what's the point of having an election? Obama won supporting certain issues that voters knew he'd defend.
 

Mario

Sidhe / PikPok
Strategy wise, should Reid pass a clean CR in the early afternoon, or wait until late Monday to force the House's hand? I'm starting to wonder whether it might make more sense to pass a clean CR early, then wait and see what the House does. They seem to have one more trick up their sleeve (the Vitter amendment). If that fails, I really don't see the point in Boehner holding out.

They need to give the House just enough time for them to be able to say "#HOUSEMUSTACT" but not quite enough time for the House to actually do anything.
 

Jooney

Member
So what's a good analogy to explain to people how the debt ceiling works?

It's like having a wife spend all the money and then having the gall to ask her husband to cut his expenses.

Wife = Congress
Husband = President

eh, it was the best I could come up with. Don't hurt me Dax.

Honestly there probably isn't a good analogy, because people are far too ready to compare the debt ceiling to a household budget or personal credit card.

You're best bet if to point someone to one of those 3 minute youtube videos that explain the debt ceiling. I'll see if I can dig up a link.

EDIT: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KIbkoop4AYE
 
So what's a good analogy to explain to people how the debt ceiling works?

What the House wants us to believe: "Barry O. is deep in debt. Therefore, Barry should not get another credit card."

Except, Obama isn't the debtor - Congress is. After all, they pass the budget. And the debt limit is not quite analagous to a credit limit, since the money has already been spent. More appropriately, it represents the amount the Treasury can dedicate to debts that the government has already accrued.

So, it's not: "Barry O. is deep in debt. Therefore, Barry should not get another credit card."

They are actually saying: "Barry O.'s wife, Connie C., is deep in debt. Therefore, Connie C. should stop paying her credit card bills."

The former, if true, would be rational. The latter is a closer analogy to the argument that the GOP making, and is actually insane.
 
It's like having a wife spend all the money and then having the gall to ask her husband to cut his expenses.

Wife = Congress
Husband = President

eh, it was the best I could come up with. Don't hurt me Dax.

Honestly there probably isn't a good analogy, because people are far too ready to compare the debt ceiling to a household budget or personal credit card.

You're best bet if to point someone to one of those 3 minute youtube videos that explain the debt ceiling. I'll see if I can dig up a link.

EDIT: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KIbkoop4AYE

Can I just slap you now and get it over with?!
 

FLEABttn

Banned
The fundamental issue is that government dysfunction reinforces libertarians' ideology. They have every reason to try to make our society fail.

Libertarian ideology reinforces and encourages government dysfunction. Any elected official in government who wants to prove government doesn't work merely has to muck up the process.

No cartoon could conceive of a villain as fundamentally hateful, corrupt, and immoral as Rand Paul or Ted Cruz.

Cobra Commander?
 

pigeon

Banned
So what's a good analogy to explain to people how the debt ceiling works?

Imagine that the US budget is like your household budget.

Now imagine that you have a crazy great-uncle who has PTSD from fighting in WWII and is terrified that the Japs will invade if you spend too much money. You've tried to explain to him that you have long-term investments that require moving money around a lot, but he doesn't understand inflation and thinks that spending a thousand dollars is like buying a whole house.

Your great-uncle still has his service weapon, so in order to keep him from freaking out and shooting your Asian-American mailman, you have to periodically stage these elaborate farces where you pretend to win the lottery, thus assuaging his concerns about money. The whole family has to participate or he'll get wise to the scam.

Unfortunately, your worthless half-brother has decided that unless you give him your car, he's going to burst into uncle's room shouting "They're coming!", covered in fake blood and waving a katana he bought on eBay.

That's pretty much what the federal debt ceiling is like.
 

FLEABttn

Banned

You know what gets me? We can prove practically any societal construct, public or private, ineffective by sabotaging it. I could drive through every red light in existence to prove that a red light is ineffective at stopping traffic. But that may kill me.

Ted Cruz? We're paying him money to shit on the federal government, which very well may get him re-elected. Disgusting.
 
Imagine that the US budget is like your household budget.

Now imagine that you have a crazy great-uncle who has PTSD from fighting in WWII and is terrified that the Japs will invade if you spend too much money. You've tried to explain to him that you have long-term investments that require moving money around a lot, but he doesn't understand inflation and thinks that spending a thousand dollars is like buying a whole house.

Your great-uncle still has his service weapon, so in order to keep him from freaking out and shooting your Asian-American mailman, you have to periodically stage these elaborate farces where you pretend to win the lottery, thus assuaging his concerns about money. The whole family has to participate or he'll get wise to the scam.

Unfortunately, your worthless half-brother has decided that unless you give him your car, he's going to burst into uncle's room shouting "They're coming!", covered in fake blood and waving a katana he bought on eBay.

That's pretty much what the federal debt ceiling is like.

I need to find a context in which I can post this.
 

Sibylus

Banned
Can't tell if Samarecarm is being facetious or earnest. I see a lot of people concerned about the realization of a totalitarian-bent government just strongarming its way into results, but off the top of my head I know of none of them wishing for that outcome. If I obtained a green card and worked in the States, would I be under observation for advocating that the adherents of libertarianism should be free to walk the streets and advocate?

Presidential candidate Samarecarm, pls respond.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
I think Reid should act earlier rather than later. I'm kinda less certain than I was when I just typed that sentence. My logic: cut them off at the pass and make them insist on their unpopular shit early in the day. But then I also thought he might be playing right into their crap by entertaining them.

I dunno what he should do. But waiting until the end of the day just seems like it might make people think he was being spiteful.
 

Tamanon

Banned
I think Reid should act earlier rather than later. I'm kinda less certain than I was when I just typed that sentence. My logic: cut them off at the pass and make them insist on their unpopular shit early in the day. But then I also thought he might be playing right into their crap by entertaining them.

I dunno what he should do. But waiting until the end of the day just seems like it might make people think he was being spiteful.

Well, remember he might have to allow the 15 hours of debate.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
No cartoon could conceive of a villain as fundamentally hateful, corrupt, and immoral as Rand Paul or Ted Cruz. They represent evil in its most pure form.

At least Lex Luther works with Superman from time to time, setting aside their ideological differences in order to save the world. Lex would probably make it pretty far in the republican primaries as a moderate.

Sure he's a supervillan, but at least he put aside his supervillan acts when it was beneficial to him. That's basically the same platform Chris Christie is running on.
 

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
The debt ceiling is like a box of chocolates.

In that it's not at all like a box of chocolates, and you're stupid as fuck.

Not you Oblivion, the people you're talking to

I figured. ;)

It's like having a wife spend all the money and then having the gall to ask her husband to cut his expenses.

Wife = Congress
Husband = President

eh, it was the best I could come up with. Don't hurt me Dax.

Honestly there probably isn't a good analogy, because people are far too ready to compare the debt ceiling to a household budget or personal credit card.

You're best bet if to point someone to one of those 3 minute youtube videos that explain the debt ceiling. I'll see if I can dig up a link.

EDIT: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KIbkoop4AYE

Good video, thanks.

Imagine that the US budget is like your household budget.

Now imagine that you have a crazy great-uncle who has PTSD from fighting in WWII and is terrified that the Japs will invade if you spend too much money. You've tried to explain to him that you have long-term investments that require moving money around a lot, but he doesn't understand inflation and thinks that spending a thousand dollars is like buying a whole house.

Your great-uncle still has his service weapon, so in order to keep him from freaking out and shooting your Asian-American mailman, you have to periodically stage these elaborate farces where you pretend to win the lottery, thus assuaging his concerns about money. The whole family has to participate or he'll get wise to the scam.

Unfortunately, your worthless half-brother has decided that unless you give him your car, he's going to burst into uncle's room shouting "They're coming!", covered in fake blood and waving a katana he bought on eBay.

That's pretty much what the federal debt ceiling is like.

:lol
 
Imagine that the US budget is like your household budget.

Now imagine that you have a crazy great-uncle who has PTSD from fighting in WWII and is terrified that the Japs will invade if you spend too much money. You've tried to explain to him that you have long-term investments that require moving money around a lot, but he doesn't understand inflation and thinks that spending a thousand dollars is like buying a whole house.

Your great-uncle still has his service weapon, so in order to keep him from freaking out and shooting your Asian-American mailman, you have to periodically stage these elaborate farces where you pretend to win the lottery, thus assuaging his concerns about money. The whole family has to participate or he'll get wise to the scam.

Unfortunately, your worthless half-brother has decided that unless you give him your car, he's going to burst into uncle's room shouting "They're coming!", covered in fake blood and waving a katana he bought on eBay.

That's pretty much what the federal debt ceiling is like.
Oh my.
 
Looks like Boehner and Reid have a similar strategy: Wait for the moderate wing of the GOP to cave.

When the president considered sitting down with the four congressional leaders in the White House ahead of the deadline to avert a government shutdown, Reid privately urged Obama to call off the meeting, according to several people familiar with the situation. Reid believed that it would amount to nothing more than a photo-op that would give the false impression that a serious negotiation was occurring, even warning he wouldn’t attend such a session. Obama scrapped it.

As Washington barrels forward to the first government shutdown in 17 years on Tuesday, the wily Reid has taken the lead role in pushing a hardball Democratic legislative strategy that can be summed up like this: Make the Republicans cave.

“He’s been the rock … and he’s had our whole caucus behind him,” said Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), a close Reid ally who spoke with the majority leader nine times on Saturday afternoon. “Because if we negotiate on a short-term [government funding bill], what are [Republicans] going to do on a long-term bill? What are they going to do on the debt ceiling?”

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/...d-democrats-strategy-97532.html#ixzz2gKpvmA7k

Like Boehner, Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Va.) and Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) are hoping House Republicans tire of this brinkmanship. Either Monday, or a few days after the government shuts down, enough House Republicans — somewhere around 120 members — could go to the leadership to ask for a clean CR. It would put Boehner in a not-so-great position, but it would also allow him, as he always says, to “fight another day.”

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2013/...pivotal-moment-97535_Page2.html#ixzz2gKqNtXGz
 

mj1108

Member
People say labeling the Tea Party "political terrorists" is going too far, but I can't help but think many Repubs would be doing exactly this if they were on the other side.

Nope, it's not going too far. An even better description for the Tea Party is the American Taliban.
 
On Saturday afternoon, senior GOP aides in the House held out hope that the Senate might feel obliged to approve the repeal of the medical-device tax. Earlier this year, the Senate voted overwhelmingly to repeal and replace the tax.

But Reid quickly shut down such hopes. Senate aides in both parties confirmed that Reid would need only 51 votes to table both of the House amendments, denying Cruz and his allies the opportunity to block Democrats and keep the House’s changes alive.

Some rank-and-file House Republicans said they now see no way to avoid a shutdown. Rep. Thomas J. Rooney (R-Fla.) called the prospect “likely.”

For now, at least, Boehner, Cantor and other top lieutenants have ruled out the prospect of seeking out Democratic votes to help them pass a simple funding bill and keep the government open, their advisers said. But as Republicans prepared to vote late Saturday, some lawmakers acknowledged that they had no idea what would happen if the Senate follows through on its threat to reject their latest offering.

“It comes back to us, I guess,” said Rep. Phil Gingrey (Ga.), one of the more conservative Republicans and a candidate for Senate in 2014. “We really didn’t talk about exactly what the plan would be then.”

That's some intelligent governing you have there.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...4de6-2859-11e3-9256-41f018d21b49_story_1.html
 
Harry Reid has pretty much handled the last few budget and legislation fights beautifully, especially when the White House doesn't get in the way.
 
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