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PoliGAF 2013 |OT2| Worth 77% of OT1
- Thread starter The Librarian
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I was going to say "How soon we forget how to read polls!" but then I remembered.
There have been three or four polls about the possibility of a shutdown in the last couple weeks. They've all showed that people would blame the Republicans more, by varying amounts. The Pew poll had the smallest spread of the four.
The strong implication is that the Pew poll is the lower bracket on this question -- meaning that the worst case scenario is that they'd blame Republicans only a LITTLE more than Democrats, and the best case scenario is that they'd blame them a lot more.
Now, the accurate critique of these polls is that it's very difficult to effectively poll people on what they WOULD do if something happened, for the simple reason that they probably don't really know. But if we're willing to accept the polls, the Pew one has no particular reason to be more accurate than the others, and given that it's the outlier, it probably isn't.
edit: I would also observe, from an electoral point of view, that the damage is done -- the Democrats in office now are going to get blamed for anything to do with Obamacare no matter what. If there were any actual delay, they'd get all the negatives of the law, and none of the advantages they might expect once it goes into effect. So there's really nothing for them to worry about from that direction -- it's kind of a "deadly ground" sort of situation.
Well, it wasn't only the Democrats posting dumb stuff in that thread, so don't feel too bad about it
What thread? Link?
Anticitizen One
Banned
The deadline to get health insurance is December 31st correct? In order to not receive the penalty tax? I would get it right now but I'm planning to move cross country in the next 2 months.
NYCmetsfan
Banned
I'm a huge captain america fan so I always distinguish patriotism and loving america with the over the top manifestations in the tea party.
I have no problem rocking American flag pants.
There's an automatic exemption if you were insuranceless for less than three months, so the real deadline is March.
Sirpopopop
Member
The Republican preserve was created on GAF once they moved the megathreads to community.
Very few of you participate in all of the discussions on the main OT forum. I would say some of them are what I consider to be Republican dominated or Republican view dominated.
Very few of you participate in all of the discussions on the main OT forum. I would say some of them are what I consider to be Republican dominated or Republican view dominated.
Yeah, pretty much.
theprodigy
Member
empty vessel
Member
A bond is just a promise to pay money. Social security is a promise to pay money. Medicare is a promise to pay money. So, yes, failing to honor promises on any of those things is a "default." We are conditioned to care about defaulting on promises to make bond payments more, because those promises are more important to wealthier people who benefit from the bond program.
The Fed determines interest rates exogenously.
So long as the US government is empowered to impose and collect taxes, it does not need the trust of investors provided that the Congress change the law that prohibits the Treasury from borrowing directly from the Federal Reserve (as it did from 1914 to 1935). Below is testimony from Marriner Eccles (chairman of the Fed under FDR) before Congress in 1947 urging it to reinstate Treasury's ability to borrow from the Fed:
Mr. SPENCE. I assume the reason the authority [for the Treasury to borrow directly from the Federal Reserve] was repealed in 1935 was because of the existing conditions, then, when there was no reason for the authority: is that correct?
Mr. ECCLES. Well, as I remember the discussionand I have referred to it in this statementthere was a feeling that this left the door wide open to the Government to borrow directly from the Federal Reserve bank all that was necessary to finance the Government deficit, and that took off any restraint toward getting a balanced budget.
Of course, in my opinion, that really had no relationship to budgetary deficits, for the reason that it is the Congress which decides on the deficits or the surpluses, and not the Treasury. If Congress appropriates more money than Congress levies taxes to pay, then, there is naturally a deficit, and the Treasury is obligated to borrow. The fact that they cannot go directly to the Federal Reserve bank to borrow does not mean that they cannot go indirectly to the Federal Reserve bank, for the very reason that there is no limit to the amount that the Federal Reserve System can buy in the market. That is the way the war was financed.
Therefore, if the Treasury has to finance a heavy deficit, the Reserve System creates the condition in the money market to enable the borrowing to be done, so that, in effect, the Reserve System indirectly finances the Treasury through the money market, and that is how the interest rates were stabilized as they were during the war, and as they will have to continue to be in the future. So it is an illusion to think that to eliminate or to restrict the direct borrowing privilege reduces the amount of deficit financing. Or that the market controls the interest rate. Neither is true.
Mr. ECCLES. Well, as I remember the discussionand I have referred to it in this statementthere was a feeling that this left the door wide open to the Government to borrow directly from the Federal Reserve bank all that was necessary to finance the Government deficit, and that took off any restraint toward getting a balanced budget.
Of course, in my opinion, that really had no relationship to budgetary deficits, for the reason that it is the Congress which decides on the deficits or the surpluses, and not the Treasury. If Congress appropriates more money than Congress levies taxes to pay, then, there is naturally a deficit, and the Treasury is obligated to borrow. The fact that they cannot go directly to the Federal Reserve bank to borrow does not mean that they cannot go indirectly to the Federal Reserve bank, for the very reason that there is no limit to the amount that the Federal Reserve System can buy in the market. That is the way the war was financed.
Therefore, if the Treasury has to finance a heavy deficit, the Reserve System creates the condition in the money market to enable the borrowing to be done, so that, in effect, the Reserve System indirectly finances the Treasury through the money market, and that is how the interest rates were stabilized as they were during the war, and as they will have to continue to be in the future. So it is an illusion to think that to eliminate or to restrict the direct borrowing privilege reduces the amount of deficit financing. Or that the market controls the interest rate. Neither is true.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/docs/historical/house/1947hr_directpurchgov.pdf (PDF)
PhoenixDark
Banned
That Pew poll came out on September 23rd btw. More recent, favorable poll for democrats
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57604632/republicans-may-take-more-blame-for-shutdown-poll-says/
Aaron Strife
Banned
You know I'm really curious why the GOP thinks a one-year delay of Obamacare is a reasonable demand for a bill that funds the government for like six weeks.
What are they going to do then? Demand another year delay of Obamacare? When does it fucking end?
What are they going to do then? Demand another year delay of Obamacare? When does it fucking end?
empty vessel
Member
Probably the repeal of the Emancipation Proclamation.
CoffeeJanitor
Member
GAF needs to get better at not piling on people with different views. That Republican thread did not go over well at all, mostly due to people diverting the topic to a bunch of combative nonsense instead of focusing on the topic at hand.
Story Of Small Businessman Struggling Under Obama Administration Draws To Close
As the finale of Breaking Bad draws near, we take a look back at the series that highlighted the heavy toll Barack Obama's policies have taken on entrepreneurs like Walter White.
Manmademan
Member
The republican position right now is completely, totally indefensible. There was only one way that thread was going to go.
CoffeeJanitor
Member
People were going at the conservatives who don't even support the current party. I mean wtf,..
TacticalFox88
Banned
Shall we give them more shovels for the graves they've been digging?
Suuuuure like they were able to determine the sharpest spike in rates in decades this last May-June?
The Fed influences, but once the market smells something it doesn't like it becomes a monster in and out of itself, and the Fed can be easily trampled by it.
Please proceed, Republicans.
The Librarian
Banned
Not directed at you specifically, but PoliGAF, and I guess GAF in general, has made me grow to hate the phrase "He needs to grow some balls!".
Testicles are a very fragile pair of reproductive organs. They aren't indicative of any signs of toughness! Especially when half the population can be tough without 'em.
ugggggggghhhhhhhh
TacticalFox88
Banned
Would you prefer Harry Reid grow a vagina? I hear those things can take a pounding.
shamelessly stolen
EDIT : Beaten by a fox! Damn you!
ClassyPenguin
Banned
Omg you guys.
The Librarian
Banned
Everyone that doesn't already have one should grow a vagina.
cooljeanius
Member
Could you tweet something like this so I could retweet it?
TacticalFox88
Banned
So then we'd reproduce by scissoring?
The Librarian
Banned
TacticalFox88
Banned
Dax prefers vaginas than penises confirmed.
The Librarian
Banned
Dax prefers vaginas than penises confirmed.
Eh. Still haven't figured that part out.
We're not able to do what you describe yet, unfortunately.
TheLaughingStock
Member
I highly doubt it for three reasons. First, congressional members could be charged with subversion because they have repeatedly ordered Obama by law to do three things: tax, spend, and borrow. However, he can't adhere to those authorized instructions because of the levels Congress has set. It's a caculated pattern by Republicans that should land them in jail if they follow through on their threats. You never know because of the financial crisis, but I think that's one reason a prolonged shutdown is unsustainable. Criminal and civil charges.
Another would be too many missed payments piling up after a couple of months. The treasury can make nearly 80 million payments per month and current systems are (politically) not designed to selectively pick and choose payments on such a massive scale/period of time.
Additionally, the global financial system is built on the assumption the US cannot involuntarily default and payments arrive on time 99.9% of the time. So, the elite would have their feet up Republican's asses because of the default. So, I think at best it could last maybe a month or two before heads start rolling. A year is impossible.
Fuck yess. You cant shit on our lawn without us making you eat it repubs.
Edit: not as quite as good as i hoped..
The Librarian
Banned
Whoa. Go Angus King.
Tuesday begins a 6-month race to enroll as many uninsured people as possible in the Affordable Care Acts insurance exchanges. For the markets to be effective, they need millions of customers, and for elderly participants not to vastly outnumber younger ones.
Its in this context that well-heeled conservative groups are appealing to uninsured young people to remain uninsured part of a backdoor effort to undermine the structural integrity of the health care law.
Their efforts have attracted the attention of one senator who recounts how being insured saved his life when he was a young adult, and who has since then watched others die due to lack of coverage. And he doesnt mince words with those whod take risks with other peoples health security.
Thats a scandal those people are guilty of murder in my opinion, Sen. Angus King, a Maine Independent who caucuses with Democrats, told me in a Friday interview. Some of those people they persuade are going to end up dying because they dont have health insurance. For people who do that to other people in the name of some obscure political ideology is one of the grossest violations of our humanity I can think of. This absolutely drives me crazy.
I tried to look up the phone number for one of these guys to ask are you aware of what youre doing? he added.
Forty years ago, when King was 29 years old, he was provided health insurance as a staffer for then-Sen. Bill Hathaway, R-Maine, and for the first time in a decade went to a clinic for a checkup.
I had a health policy that included in it a free annual physical as a part of the policy and they had evening clinic hours. And I wouldnt have taken the day off and if that hadnt been covered under the insurance theres no doubt in my mind that I wouldnt have gone to have the checkup, King said.
It was a routine checkup and the doctor found this mole, and I went in a week later to have the stitches out. The doctor told me Id better sit down and that I had melanoma . A month later I found myself having every cancer test you could imagine. Ultimately I had a fairly major surgery. The point of the story is that without the surgery I would have died.
More at the link. Badass.Its in this context that well-heeled conservative groups are appealing to uninsured young people to remain uninsured part of a backdoor effort to undermine the structural integrity of the health care law.
Their efforts have attracted the attention of one senator who recounts how being insured saved his life when he was a young adult, and who has since then watched others die due to lack of coverage. And he doesnt mince words with those whod take risks with other peoples health security.
Thats a scandal those people are guilty of murder in my opinion, Sen. Angus King, a Maine Independent who caucuses with Democrats, told me in a Friday interview. Some of those people they persuade are going to end up dying because they dont have health insurance. For people who do that to other people in the name of some obscure political ideology is one of the grossest violations of our humanity I can think of. This absolutely drives me crazy.
I tried to look up the phone number for one of these guys to ask are you aware of what youre doing? he added.
Forty years ago, when King was 29 years old, he was provided health insurance as a staffer for then-Sen. Bill Hathaway, R-Maine, and for the first time in a decade went to a clinic for a checkup.
I had a health policy that included in it a free annual physical as a part of the policy and they had evening clinic hours. And I wouldnt have taken the day off and if that hadnt been covered under the insurance theres no doubt in my mind that I wouldnt have gone to have the checkup, King said.
It was a routine checkup and the doctor found this mole, and I went in a week later to have the stitches out. The doctor told me Id better sit down and that I had melanoma . A month later I found myself having every cancer test you could imagine. Ultimately I had a fairly major surgery. The point of the story is that without the surgery I would have died.
As a conservative (classical liberal) of the Australian persuasion, I find it really upsetting that these is the kind of tactics that are being used in the US.
I just came back from a three month trip in the States, my first time and I thought it was a spectacular country. Truly a marvelous place full of natural beauty, a great civic culture with a sense of pride and nationalism (in a good way) and some of the friendliest and most hospitable people I've ever met.
However, despite being a conservative even I could see the consequences of having your health care system. I almost dislike saying this but you guys need to move to a public UHC system like Australia, where it's private or State run hospitals that are subsidised by the Federal Government, or a Singapore style health accounts system where the government still covers those who can't pay.
It's just sad seeing the elimination of the moderate right from the face of Federal politics in the US.
I just came back from a three month trip in the States, my first time and I thought it was a spectacular country. Truly a marvelous place full of natural beauty, a great civic culture with a sense of pride and nationalism (in a good way) and some of the friendliest and most hospitable people I've ever met.
However, despite being a conservative even I could see the consequences of having your health care system. I almost dislike saying this but you guys need to move to a public UHC system like Australia, where it's private or State run hospitals that are subsidised by the Federal Government, or a Singapore style health accounts system where the government still covers those who can't pay.
It's just sad seeing the elimination of the moderate right from the face of Federal politics in the US.
The Librarian
Banned
Even if Obama could call for another election, it wouldn't do much good if the House remains as gerrymandered as it is. We also need a nonpartisan federal redistricting committee or a nonpartisan state agency for each state.
This is what we have to argue against.
...
Chait and The Monkey Cage are having an argument on Twitter over Chait's words in an article, but the overall debate is this: If a party wins election in a country (the president, in this case, wins reelection), does that party have a mandate to pursue its policy? And if not, does that winning party have a right to pursue its policy?
The monkey cage sounds misguided.. Sure the election didnt say that the republicans couldnt vote any way they want(they can do that by right of being elected), but to say that its 'ok' to take the US hostage is wildly ignorant.
The Librarian
Banned
The Monkey Cage is usually great. John Sides is arguing that because most voters choose candidates first then justify their policy reasons, it means that winners don't have a right to implement their agenda.
Which I don't know why we have elections then. I posted the article in this thread yesterday.
Shutting down the entire government because you don't get your way is....a bit extreme.
Why can't the republicans compromise on this? I just don't understand. It makes no sense to me. Especially considering Obamacare is still pretty bad on the scheme of things when you compare it to you know, health care systems in the rest of the industrialised world.
Why can't the republicans compromise on this? I just don't understand. It makes no sense to me. Especially considering Obamacare is still pretty bad on the scheme of things when you compare it to you know, health care systems in the rest of the industrialised world.
The Librarian
Banned
Because they don't want to spend the money to insure everyone, and they're afraid it'll be a success.
That's bullshit, the USA spends more government money on health care per capita than any other industrialised nation in the world.
TacticalFox88
Banned
And have SHIT to show for it.
To be more specific, they don't want to spend the money to help the poor and sick.
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